Herdt is an unbiased reporter who has established himself as an accurate ear of Sacramento.

Did Jim Dantona discuss the race with Hanna Beth Jackson before he announced he was running? If he did what was the outcome of their discussion?

Tony "the Tiger" Strickland will aid Hanna Beth's campaign the same way Gray Davis spent millions in 2002 to pick off his toughest Republican opponent Dick Riordan in the Republican primary. That way Davis was assured the win by running against the more extreme candidate Bill Simon.
Strickland will either make sure independent money does hit pieces on Dantona, or supports Hanna Beth - or both.
In a HBJ vs Strickland race, the tiger wins.

I will believe that Perata is neutral when I see his name on a HBJ invite. but being from Simi Valley I am almost sure the event will be far away from here.

If Perata puts his name on HBJ's invite the only deja vu for the dems is forming a circle and shooting....speaking as a Republican, the only dem I would support is Dantona...

As usual, Williamson says it best!

Give me a break Barbara...you're not speaking as a republican.

Get some sleep, Freedom. 3:00 AM and still at it? Barbra is a smart, thinking Republican. Not a gopher, popping up from under a rock in darkness.

Jim Dantona is headed for Sacramento and the VCRCC is shakin like a dog sh*ttin peach pits!

You got that right, BubbaK=Kunicki. Speaking of which, haven't heard from the gopher is quite some time. Must have gone underground, perhaps because of the fires. They don't like smoke.

Yawnnnnnnnnnnn,

You can hit the send key as many times as you like, but the only place Danton's going to is political oblivion.

He'll pull out of the race or get buried by Hanna Beth, either way the end result will be the same.

Wow, considering Ron is an expert in nothing his opinion on this topic means nothing, get back down the gopher hole with Bubba!

Ron says Yawnnnnnnn because he was up at 3:00am as posting Ventura Freedom.

Ron, Ventura Freedom, BK, 3:00 A.M., what a sick puppy. No family, no life, underground, dark, fear of water . . .

Poor rodent.

Dantona runs circles around this underground sloth.

Pop up, attack, pop back underground.

Not even worthy of a formal gopher alert.

In need of a shrink.

Poor rodent.

Timm Herdt drills down to the core issue: Who is most electable? This is still a Republican-leaning district, and Tony Strickland is still the odds-on favorite to win the general election. Plus, Tony has swept the field of serious Republican opponents in the primary, so he won't have to spend a lot of money to get the nomination.

On the Democratic side, Jackson is certainly perceived as the more liberal candidate, and she'll have a much harder time making in-roads into the more-conservative general electorate. Jim Dantona is viewed as a more moderate Democrat, and he came surprisingly close to an upset victory in last year's Supervisorial race. He'd stand a much better chance (albeit still under 25% in my opinion) of beating Tony.

But neither Democrat will have much chance at all if they first spend months (and hundreds of thousands of dollars) wrestling with each other for the primary nomination. If she wins such a struggle, Jackson will get creamed by Tony in November. If he wins such a struggle, Jim's negatives (which are high to begin with) will have been driven up to the point where he'll have a very difficult time attacking Tony without suffering from the backwash.

I guess it's not too surprising: This is a district which is becoming more competitive and which will have no incumbent in the race. It's the chance of a lifetime (or at least eight years of a lifetime) for aspiring local Democratic politicians, and they will not let that chance slip away without a fight, even if the result is a Pyrrhic victory.

OR...Dantona can use the primary to focus his message, raise his issues and convince Left & Right that he is the alternative to an obsolete, self-serving political machine that's done nothing but ride the FarRight-driven GOP.

You can see it already: Strickland is now claiming to be an environmentalist who's for kids' health care. If THAT incredible political morph doesn't tell you what trouble the GOP is in....nothing will convince you short of Strickland spending weekends in front of news cameras, bagging shovelfuls of Rocketdyne soil for disposal in WMI's phonmy green waste bins.

Even though I agree with Dan (dpweiner) on very little, I think his analysis and Timm's analysis is correct. While this is a competitve district it is not with a clear Republican field and a Dem primary battle. One of the Dems needs to get out of the race for it to even be competitive. If Jackson wants to be the Dem choice, will not leave the race and thinks somehow she has any chance - then Dantona should get out of the race and let HBJ drown (this may also be HBJs payback to the Dems for cutting her out with the last redistricting). Either way if she is not going to leave the race, Dantona should walk away and when she gets creamed tell the party "I told you so".

Hopefully, that will be the last of HBJ because of her miserable showing in this race. She'll split SB with Strickland and lose 5 to 1 in the South/East part of the district.

If she leaves then it is still an uphill battle for Dantona, but at least Dantona stands a chance at splitting up the South/East part of the district where he has good support and make a good showing in the SB area for a possible win. Having to endure a primary battle as either retribution from HBJ to the Dems or HBJ thinking she can actually win the race will be suicide for both Dem candidates...

Here's a potential problem for Strickland. What's he going to do while Dantona's out there with mailers and messages for months and months? Strickland's got to spend some cash or he'll quickly become a non-entity by the time the general election campaign gets underway and by then the winner of the Dem primary will be seen as the top dog for the SD 19 seat. If he doesn't spend enough Dantona will have locked in the issues and messages and Strickland will have to spend faster than Dantona during the general, just to catch up. In short, at some point in the general campaign the candidates will be even in $$$.

Now here's the problem: a couple of Sds in play that could majority-proof the Senate for the Dems. What does Strickland do if the Dem leaders put up cash and mobilize the unions to take SD 19? In that case Strickland would find it real difficult to raise the sort of cash needed to offset those resources. If he falls behind on issues during the primary and is forced to play catch up during the general, Dem resources may just swamp Strickland.

This is gonna be one bodacious race!!

All candidates who go through tough primaries like to claim that they are better off for it: They are battle-hardened, they've built up their name recognition, they've raised lots of money, etc. And sometimes it's even true.

But on balance a tough primary campaign is usually debilitating. The winner is exhausted from the bruising battle. The primary opponent has driven up the winner's negative numbers, and provided lots of quotable material to be used against him in the general election. Many of the winner's contributors are tapped out. Etc.

Meanwhile the general election opponent, if he did not have to endure a similar primary fight, is tan and rested and has a big bank account. Yes, it's true that he hasn't been getting as much media attention while his opponents were brawling with each other. But he also hasn't been hit with as much dirt as they've been throwing at each other.

Under those circumstances the normal political strategy during the primary for an unopposed candidate in one party would be to run "feel-good" ads to try to burnish his positive image and reduce his negatives. This would include gauzy full-color brochures showing his family and filled with platitudes about his devotion to the district and his vision for the future. It's a political truism that you have to build up your own positives before you can go on the offensive with negative attacks on your opponent, otherwise they'll backfire.

And that's what you can expect from Tony, while he sits back and watches HBJ and Jim hack away at each other. Tony will have a huge monetary advantage over the Democratic winner, and he'll be all set to use it for the general election. What might have been a very competitive race is likely to turn into an easy Republican win.

I don't disagree but this election may be much different than all those past races that tend to support your premise...IF the state Dems decide to throw big resources into it. That's the key. If this turns into THE race for the Dems then all those primary negatives and all those Republican registrations are reduced to one simple question: can a wave of Dem money, with today's political climate in SD 19, overturn the GOP boat?

As GS said, the State Dem. Party will either spend its money wisely or kiss off this District until another day. Jackson is a spoiler who couldn't get elected dog catcher down here. If she is in to get even with the Party for sending her packing, then she is right on the money. She is the newest adhoc member of the VCRCC. Go Jackson Go!

Tony Strickland will have no trouble raising large sums of money. He proved that in his bid for State Controller last year. Plus his wife is in the Assembly and they have the contacts. So big money will flock to him, eager to back the likely winner.

The state Democratic party can also pour lots of money in, IF it thinks there's a reasonable chance of snatching a state senate seat from the Republicans. But Democrats will not be able to overwhelm the Republicans financially; there's plenty of Republican money available as well. And Democrats won't even make the investment if it looks like the survivor of a vicious primary battle will be too beaten up to stand a chance in a Republican-leaning district.

That's why a big battle between Jackson and Dantona is a really, really bad idea from a Democratic perspective. I suspect that Tony is sitting back with his fingers crossed and a cheshire grin on his face, hoping that November 2008 will turn into a cakewalk for him.

Anyone know how many seats are in play, statewide, and whether its a Dem or a Repub at risk?

Dantona has proven himself to be competitive in East County; Jackson wins the West. It will be up to SB.

Jackson against Strickland?

How does Strickland win? = How many believe global warming is a sign of the end times?

How does Jackson win? = How many want real health care reform and respect science?

Dogma over Reason?

Based on this "scientific" study, Dantona beats Hannah Beth and Tony "Night of the Living Dead eyes" Strickland.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=3761671&page=1

"One implication is that voting decisions are not necessarily rational decisions..."

Ain't THAT the truth... How many ineffectual out of touch Republican ideologists can we continue to place in power in this little bubble we call southeast Ventura County.

Dantona has the VCRCC scared so sh*tless that I heard the VCRCC starts every meeting by passing out Depends and that BubbaK now buys Depends in bulk!

I have to buy Depends in bulk in order to handle all the bullshit coming from Team Dantona.

Gopher alert. This is an official alert. Gopher out from under rock. Grab your traps and poison.

I'm sure you and your behind the scenes character assassins have stock in diapers. You've been cryin' about Dantona since long before he entered any race out here. Get over it.

It would sure be nice to have political discussions here again but what fun would that be for you fake pillars of the community.

I've got no problem with political discussion. The funny thing is that I stayed completely out of this thread for six days and said nothing good or bad about Dantona or his supporters. Yet, in typical form, Dantona's cronies still resorted to cheap attacks against me even when I didn't make a single post in this thread. When Team Dantona complains about "character assassins" perhaps they should be looking in the mirror. If you guys really wants to talk politics then maybe they should start by following your own advice and stick to the subject.

Bubba in that case answer the question of do you think Romney makes good choices when he hired Larry Craig, David Vitter and Tony Strickland to work on his campaign?

The corollary would be, "Did Strickland make a good choice when he decided to back Romney?". With the evangelical movement so frustrated with the selection of GOP candidates and on the verge of abandoning the Party, will they support the candidacy of a non-christian candidate? And if they don't will they oppose such a candidate and all those who support him (probably not a lot of votes to be lost by the EM but even a few in a tight race could spell upset)? Or will political pressure cause Strickland to do yet another about face?

The Herdt article is about the Dantona/Jackson primary race, not about Romney, Craig, Vitter, or any other irrelevant, diversionary topic you Dantona boys want to dredge up. I'm not going to be baited into commenting on Larry Craig in every single thread on this blog since he is not a local representative and doesn't even reside in this State. Dragging Larry Craig into every discussion is no more relevant that someone bringing up William Jefferson in every topic. It is disappointing that you guys can't find a way to support your candidate without continually bringing up tangent topics that involve prostitution and bathroom stalls. If that is your campaign strategy then there is little hope for your candidate.

As usaul BubbaK claims he wants to talk about politics and then he ducks answering the question, that is because VCRCC hacks like him have no ideas and they are part of a failed logic that has lead the GOP to the point of being totally meaningless. More and more people are backing Jim Dantona everyday because they are sick and tired of the Strickland's and BubbaK's of the world who do nothing for the people and instead attach themselves like leaches to the neck of the middle class. Guys like BubbaK need no costume because they are scary and ugly looking without one.

Dantona Supporters -

Give us some help here...BK is right...stick to the talking points that are relevant to the Dantona Strickland race. Stop with the dumb gopher alerts and smear tactics.

I refuse to vote for Tony "the crook" Strickland and I too am fed up with the hijacked VCRCC that is being used and manipulated by the incompetent Strickland family career politicians. Strickland's have NO CLUE about real life. All the STrickland's live for is power, greed and delighting themselves in their fundraising and marketing skills and their ability to find loopholes in campaign finance. I find Audra & Tony to be sleazy along with their sidekicks. They throw Kunicki & Osborn bones to make them feel "special" and honor them with their presence.

I want to get on board with Dantona but I have yet to find substance to him. I think he is a puffed up bloviator. Yep, I have spent a lot of time speaking with him, tried to get to know him and his motivations, he is not a good listener, seems preoccupied with his own thoughts a bit ADHD. He spent more time telling me why I shouldn't vote for the other guy instead of being able to give me examples of tangible accomplishments that have helped the local constiuents. My impression... he is a good old boy, with the gift of gab, kick back of the old school Chicago Politicians.

I had never heard of his non-profit until he advertised it in his campaign. I have been raising money and volunteering for youth groups for decades, how come no one before the election had even heard of Baseballers or for that matter the Foy Foundation. Possibly their efforts were under the radar in Simi Valley.

So for starters I would like clarification of what exactly Dantona's non-profit has actually accomplished. How many youth reached and the outcome of the intervention, how much money donated, what is the percent of administrative overhead, testimonials, etc.

Dantona won't come on the blog and tell his position on issues I understand he does not want to show his hand too early. His firm accomplishments with his charity work should not be controversarial, let's hear the stats, baseball enthusiasts love spewing out stats.

If it wasn't for the tactics that Dantona used in the Supervisor Campaign against Mikels I would already be on board with Team Dantona...Unfortunatly the icky residue remains and I don't want to get any on me.

Another blogger wrote in regards to the Strickland's "voter apathy is expensive, you get what you pay for."

I still am not fired up enough to stick my reputation, neck and wallet out for Dantona, how will you inspire me... the swing vote.

BTW Bubba Kidd is not Kunicki...he voted for Kunicki's opponent.

Love Child Winchester-Kidd

You don't like gopher alerts? I think a gopher alert is just as stimulating as the nonsense I just read. Love Child doesn't like Strickland or Dantona and never heard about Baseballers Against Drugs. It must be living in a cave. The organization has been in the press over and over again for decades. It never heard of the organization, but knows how Bubba Kidd voted in the last election. Love Child should be Ego Maximus.

Anymore of that jibberish, Love Child, and you will spark a gopher alert.

The problem Bubba is you have very rarely discussed issues here. You have simply told us how bad a person Dantona is - then wonder why Dantona's people gang up on you. Even your "civilized" discussions with GS end up with some personal attack. You don't support the same candidates - fine. But you spent so much time muddying the waters to drag Dantona through - why would his supporters ever want to "discuss" anything with you again?

As for Love Child's claim - the tactics of Team Mikels and more precisely - her aforementioned fake pillars of the community - took place behind close doors, behind the scenes, one filthy pack of lies at a time, crossing desk after desk with innuendo and false accusations to smear an individual's name - not to challenge his point of view. I know because the same crap was handed to me and I greatly resented it, especially considering that these so-called "community leaders" were spreading the filth. It continues to this day even on this very blog where the moderator has to scold the pitiful individual who anonymously continues throwing this toxic slime against the wall to see what will stick.

THAT is the sticky reside that sickens me and more than anything else solidified my support of Dantona both then and now.

I am not a member of your so-called "team." But I am someone who has had his fill of "good old boy, old school, east county politicians." Anytime the boat gets rocked, they cry foul.

I hope Dantona keeps rockin' that boat. (Go ahead Bubba - throw in a burger and fries punch line here. That's all the material you ever seem to have.)

You hit the nail on the head, Former Republican. The reasons stated are the exact force behind my support for gopher alerts. It says nothing new and only attacks Dantona from the same bucket of mud time and time again. It warrants no sane comment, only a gopher alert. Thank you for stating it so concisely.

I for one think the gopher alerts should change to "leach" alerts. The reason is that BubbaK and his ilk like Strickland, are nothing but leaches on the neck of the middle class. They live off the public trough and they are parasites.

Leach alerts sound good. How about we go with some leach alerts and see how they go over? Thanks for the suggestion.

Need to correct the spelling or I'll go crazy with the alerts.
Correction: Strickland is a "leech."

Depends what kind of leech/leach he is. As for the parasite, thank you Webster. He will hereinafter be a leech.

Sorry for my spelling Moondoggie, you are right that Bubba Kidd and Strickland are leeches, not leaches.