Iowa Predicitons?
22 Comments
Brian Dennert here
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I think Ron Paul surprises someone. I don't know who but someone will be surprised.
I think you have it just about right, Brian, though I would note that Huckabee doesn't have to win. All he has to do is make it a horse race for Romney to be humiliated, given the millions Romney has spent on Iowa, and Huckabee will certainly have done that. I suspect Romney is toast after Iowa and New Hampshire. If McCain does reasonably well in Iowa and places in the top three in New Hampshire, he is well positioned to take the nomination. In any case the polls are still clearly indicating he is the Republican best able to give any of the Democrats a real run for the money in the general election, and he is clearly the most qualified to be President. It's interesting in fact that Hillary is now heard using the McCain catchphrase "able to lead from day one". Their surveys must be showing that it resonates with people.
John Edwards (D) +2
Mike Huckabee (R) +5
Hillary Clinton will finish in third and declare victory because Obama didn“t win.
Romney loses and the every Republican operative crawls out from under their rocks and works to cut Huckabee off at the knees in South Carolina. This is looking more and more like a "change election". The people are tired of manufactured candidates and are way out in front of the politicians and the main stream media in this regard.
This is probably the most important issue of the current presidential campaigns:
http://whazgoinon.wordpress.com/2007/12/31/lol-happy-new-year/
Happy New Year all!
I really can't imagine a Republican having any chance of winning in the upcoming election. Their leadership and deceit for the past 7 years has been abysmal. This is not to mention ignoring the strong voice of the American public calling for the impeachment of Dick Cheney.
It is clear that Republicans want nothing but dictatorial rule with their ignorance of the Constitution and Bill of Rights. They claim lowering taxes while casting the nation in the untenable position of having to rely on other countries to fund a unnecessary dangerous war that has caused an increase in violence around the world.
Sure the economy's is great with folks losing their homes through foreclosure and the struggle to pay for gas to get to work. But wait, we won't have to worry about that for long, as most of our Big Business is sending our jobs overseas. The "loss of jobs" as so many immigrant-phobic folks cry, is really in direct relation to big business outsourcing to China and the like. No wonder why we have to be so careful with Pakistan, we could lose tech support for our computers.
I'm not big on polls or predictions. In fact, I downright hate polls, and the importance people place on them. A lot let a candidate's standing the polls seriously influence their decision to support a candidate. That said, we're up 31% to 25% in New Hampshire!!!!
I still think Romney will win, and I don't think Obama will. I can't decide between Hillary and Edwards.
I think Richardson will be the surprise story on the Democratic side.
OK, here's the official prediction:
Mike Huckabee(R)+3
Barack Obama(D)+1
Dems: Look for women to hand Clinton a win by a statistically significant 5% over Edwards. Obama will come in third. No other candidate will look strong.
Reps: Huckabee will eek out a Pyrrhic victory over Romney with both of them finishing with just over 22% each of their party's continually fracturing support. McCain and Paul will surge into double figures. Others will split the scraps with none of the other candidates mustering over 6%.
Additional result: Thompson will drop out.
Richardson makes for the perfect VP candidate. Good call Owen.
I believe McCain will be the Iowa surprise, though the pre-processed made to order Romney will win. I agree Thomson drops out - he never wanted to run so who needs him.
The Democrats are a crapshoot. I don't believe Hillary wins (I sincerely hope not) and I believe Biden will be the surprise.
Jurnei-
Thank you for your exhibition of the reason why Democratics will lose the White House again this November.
When Elton retires, all bets are off.
Realizing that modesty has never been my middle name, I am asking for a few high fives, ladies and gents, for calling the winners in the Iowa caucuses. C'mon now people, give it up for old Mongo!
Mongo Flamo....congrats. Wanta work on my re-election campaign?
Sure, Barbra. You are a Republican, right? I do have my standards now.
Wow, that's why I don't make predictions . . .
Owen, I'm sure you were pleased with McCain's showing. I know he wasn't expected to do as well as he did (basically tying for third), so this should give him somewhat of a bump as the primaries move forward.
Biggest losers last night were Romney and Tony Strickland! Romney spent 20 times more than Huckabee and had his butt handed to him! Strickland already came out for Romney who is now going nowhere! Will Strickland flip flop like he did when he went from Dantona to Foy? I just read that Foy said he stands with the hatemongers and skinheads who protest the Christians in the UCC every Sunday. Foy also voted against healthcare for WW2 vets and against a plan to honor fallen SEABEE'S.
Yes, Mongo. I am a Republican
Barbra, you're awesome!
Where are those two pages of Runkle contributions that are missing?
Never heard back from you on that Barbra..
I think Mongo must have been up to his old tricks again. Derailing threads and all that...