Owen e-mailed this in earlier today...
Just got back from the McCain-Lieberman town hall in Ann Arbor. I'm heading over now to the call center to make some last minute get out the vote calls. This election is up in the air, it's anybody's guess. The polls are neck and neck, and there are some spoilers that make it hard to predict. First, they estimate that independents and Democrats will break to McCain. They question is, in what numbers? Second, a lot of absentee ballots were cast early, including before McCain's victory in New Hampshire. Some people are estimating that Romney outnumbers McCain 3 to 1 in those. We can't know the answer to those two questions, and in such a tight race it matters.
This state is much more important for Romney than for us. Just like New Hampshire was a must win for us, Michigan is a must win for Romney. If he loses here, he's pretty much out of the running. It's his last stand, his home state, and he has an important connection through his dad, who was governor. We have been moving up in the polls all over the country, we're in the lead in important states like South Carolina, Florida, California, and we're a large first in the national polls. A win here would just about seal the deal, but we can still be very competitive in South Carolina and Florida without it.
McCain has done some great campaigning to large crowds these last few days, and I'm confident that we have a chance to win. We'll see tonight.