Owen e-mailed this in earlier today...
Just got back from the McCain-Lieberman town hall in Ann Arbor. I'm heading over now to the call center to make some last minute get out the vote calls. This election is up in the air, it's anybody's guess. The polls are neck and neck, and there are some spoilers that make it hard to predict. First, they estimate that independents and Democrats will break to McCain. They question is, in what numbers? Second, a lot of absentee ballots were cast early, including before McCain's victory in New Hampshire. Some people are estimating that Romney outnumbers McCain 3 to 1 in those. We can't know the answer to those two questions, and in such a tight race it matters.
This state is much more important for Romney than for us. Just like New Hampshire was a must win for us, Michigan is a must win for Romney. If he loses here, he's pretty much out of the running. It's his last stand, his home state, and he has an important connection through his dad, who was governor. We have been moving up in the polls all over the country, we're in the lead in important states like South Carolina, Florida, California, and we're a large first in the national polls. A win here would just about seal the deal, but we can still be very competitive in South Carolina and Florida without it.
McCain has done some great campaigning to large crowds these last few days, and I'm confident that we have a chance to win. We'll see tonight.
I think Huckabee actually has a good chance in South Carolina. If Giuliani doesn't take Florida, he'd better think about starting his security consulting firm back up again.
Giuliani lost to Ron Paul and Fred Thompson tonight. But he beat uncommitted. Barely.
Owen, where you going next?
Giuliani's campaign strategy in this race has always baffled me. Depending on how he does in Florida, Giuliani will be considered either brilliant or an idiot.
Huckabee will do well in South Carolina, but his mouth will do him in eventually.
Congrats Owen on a VERY good showing in Michigan tonight. 30% in a state where Romney had tremendous built in advnatage is impressive.
Built in advantages? Sure his dad was governor back in the 1960's. But McCain WON the state back in 2000! Looks like Mitt has 2 firsts and 2 seconds to McCain's 1 first, and 1 second. McCain lost and lost big. No spin will change that.
Maybe Romney will think about appointing McCain to something or other.
McCain is the Democrat Party favorite candidate. Mitt is the future of the GOP.
Big consideration is that McCain LOST New Hampshire's (-1%) AND Michigan's (-14%) Republican votes. As crossover primaries those two states helped McCain but there are fewer such opportunities down the stretch. McCain's got to start performing better amongst Republican voters. Can he do that?
The facts in this race are simple. If you vote for any Republican you are voting for George Bush and the status quo. If you like high gas prices, if you like seeing people lose their homes, if you like out of control spending and massive debt, if you want to be in Iraq for another 50 years then vote republican, if you want change, then vote for the democrat.
As someone not tied to partisan ideology I recognize a clear differences with Bush and McCain. That is why I supported in in 2000. The jury is still out in 2008 but I have great respect for McCain and would rather see him as the Rep candidate knowing the best candidate was actually the nominee. For the record, I support Obama. McCain is my 2nd choice only because of stark differences in war policy.
If the facts were as simple as you claim, each of these early primaries would not have fluctuated as they have. This is an exciting electoral process we are witnessing. American democracy needed this boost after the Bush administration's destructive handing of it.
Laura, thank you. This race is my first real experience working on an electoral campaign. Mitt got his (new/retooled) message out in the final days, and it took. Obviously we were disappointed, but we did our best on the ground. I don't think this will influence South Carolina or Florida very much.
Mitt-Mo: What, exactly, is that future of the GOP? New Deal works programs for auto workers? McCain is America's favorite candidate. Mitt Romney is the establishment candidate - McCain is the one with vision and a commitment to doing what's best for America - not necessarily The Party.
GS: From what I understand, McCain actually won among Republicans in New Hampshire, but he didn't fare as well in Michigan. I'm feeling good about South Carolina.
Reports I read were that McCain lagged in the Repub vote by 1% in NH. And you should feel good about SC. Your guy's doing very well! Good work.
Go ahead and try to nominate McCain/Bush. But if you want real change you can't vote for Bush's right hand man. Bush had his supporters do down right nasty things to McCain in South Carolina in 2000 and McCain still supports him?
I liked the old maverick who called Pat Robertson an agent of intolerance.
The other thing about McCain, besides his strong association with the Bush/Washington establishment, is his horrendous record on immigration. Let us not forget this is the guy who co-sponsored legislation with none other than Ted Kennedy to grant amnesty to those here illegally (the so-called "path to citizenship"), which, in reality, was just a watered down amnesty program. This went over like a lead balloon with the electorate who essentially revolted on talk radio shows, via letters, e-mails, & phone calls to members of Congress, and protests and demonstrations to send this thing down in flames, which is where it belonged.
This, to me, was a classic example of the public holding their elected representatives' feet to the fire on an issue of vital importance to most Americans. Before you start bombarding me with vitriol (which I know you'll do anyway), remember that I support "legal" immigration 100% (the more the better, as far as I'm concerned). What I don't support is people breaking into our country. And that is what this bill was going to reward.
No thanks, McCain. We see someone who will be strong on this issue and it ain't gonna be a Democrat, that's for certain.
Mongo, who are you talking about? Romney ran a sanctuary state with the support of his "collaborator and friend" Ted Kennedy. Giuliani ran a sanctuary city and virtually called for more illegal immigration. Huck wanted to give illegals in-state tuition, something that kids whose parents were in the military overseas wouldn't get. They all supported McCain's plan (including Fred Thomspon). Romney even said that it was "reasonable and not amnesty." So, unless you're supporting Hunter or Paul, you can hardly hold immigration against McCain.
I most certainly am holding immigration against McCain. I'm holding it against the other candidates as well (including Giuliani, who I support). You cannot deny that McCain is not on the same page as most Americans when it comes to his stand on illegal immigration. Americans do not want amnesty - - read our lips!!! McCain supports amnesty, which is exactly what the McCain-Kennedy bill would have granted.
I don't want amnesty. But McCain never said anything like this, "If you come here and you work hard and you happen to be in an undocumented status, you're one of the people who we want in this city." He sued Bill Clinton because he wanted to keep illegals on welfare. He agreed with McCain's bill. You say you won't support McCain specifically because of immigration. Why do you not hold it against Giuliani as well?
You're misreading me, Owen. There are many other reasons why I'm not supporting McCain. Although I disagree with Rudy's handling of illegal immigration while he was mayor of New York, I can't use it as a litmus test against every single candidate. If I did that, I wouldn't be able to vote for anyone.
The fact is, after the amnesty (so-called comprehensive immigration reform) bill went down in flames, a lot of politicians got the message loud and clear. I think Rudy was one of them, but we'll see...