
( See the bottom of this vote for the update.)

The Star's Timm Herdt had a short piece up about analyzing the election results between Hannah Beth Jackson and Tony Strickland.
Here is his analysis:
By Timm Herdt:June 4, 2008
Jackson-Strickland: Not head-to-head, but...In anticipation of the most competitive partisan political campaign Ventura County has seen in more than 20 years, partisans on both sides were watching Tuesday's results to see which of two unopposed candidates got the most votes.
It is a meaningless number, since at least two and a half times as many voters will participate in November's election as voted yesterday, but still... It's something to talk about.
So here's what happened:
Republican state Senate candidate Tony Strickland pulled in 50,756 votes.
Democratic state Senate candidate Hannah-Beth Jackson got 47,825.Advantage Strickland?
Republican Central Committee Chairman Mike Osborn thinks so. "Last night sends a message," Osborn told me this afternoon. "Tony's showing yesterday is going to cut off some of the money Hannah-Beth was expecting."
What it shows is that turnout ran about according to registration, but -- as is typically the case in low-turnout elections, Republicans voted a little more reliably than Democrats. Republicans hold a 2 percentage-point edge in the district, and Strickland got about 3 percent more of the combined Republican and Democratic votes.
In November, there will be a lot more Republicans and Democrats casting ballots -- and a whole lot more independents.
"You saw her strong support, you saw our strong support," Osborn said. "I think my guy will win over more independents."
For comparison, consider that in 2004 -- a higher turnout primary -- 169,765 votes were cast in the district in June. That November -- likely a lower turnout general election that this year's will be -- 384,450 ballots were cast.
Before you comment you should know something. Timm is spelled with two M's. If you spell it wrong he gets angry. I spelled it wrong early in my blogging career and he broke my keyboard over his knee and threw it at an educator and an alternative energy executive.
For legal reasons I am required to tell you that was a joke. But really, it is two M's.
Timm, seriously why didn't you quote somebody from Hannah Beth Jackson's campaign? Did they not call you back before the deadline for the story?
I think the night shows an advantage to Tony Strickland but at this point he is the front runner. He is the strongest campaigner in this area. But I expect Hannah Beth Jackson is readying some great tactics. Her campaign includes veterans that have worked successfully to defeat him before.
What do you think? Should anything be read from the results?

UPDATE: The Hannah Beth Jackson team has emailed me final numbers from Santa Barabra County and if these are the final numbers they have reason to celebrate.
Here is their email:
Santa Barbara just released its final vote tally which has increased my vote count in SB to 25870 to 18943 for Strickland.In other words, Hannah-Beth received 6927 more votes in SB than he did.... (previously the figure was just about a 6,000 differential.So the final tally (per the Secty of State's website this morning shows:
Strickland 53,655Jackson 51,513
Differential of only 2,142 or just about 1,000 less than the previous calculation......
You may want to update your post on the primary turnout.
Does this mean the people that made a point out of the primary results admit Hannah Beth Jackson has an advantage?








Who is working on HBJ's campaign that has successfully worked to defeat Tony Strickland before?
Is there any other race besides Controller that Tony Strickland has run for and lost?
Tony Strickland is a great campaigner and fund-raiser, despite what his opponents claim. He will run circles around Jackson in both arenas (and already has, in fact). I agree with Mike Osborn that he is the favored candidate in this district by a long-shot. The funds will start flowing once this election kicks into high gear.
I've already written my checks.
Strickland Good.
Jackson Bad.
Osborn Good.
Money Good.
Repugs Good.
Me Good too.
...except that this election the voters are the wild card. They're more involved. They're scrutinizing more. They're talking to others about the candidates. And they are convinced that much of their problems are due more to the hijacking of the GOP than to the Dems'inability to get legislation passed.
Most voters also understand the old saw that you judge a man by the company he keeps and none of them want their kids hanging out with Alcohol, Tobacco & Gambling.
Mongo,
Who said he wasn't able to raise large amounts of money? I don't recall anyone saying that at all.
Did you create that straw man yourself?
Brian well there have been many references to HBJ's advantage as a campaigner, which I wholeheartedly disagree with and which was part of my comment as well.
Strickland has the best political machine money can buy. Osborn/Kunicki/developer Gorian, cancer causing chemical producers, including cigarettes - now there you have a team of community leaders. Strickland is good for the cigarette industry, but is he good for our heath? Strickland is good for the petrochemical industry, but is he good for our environment? Strickland is good for the insurance industry, but is he good for families trying to make it economically? Strickland is great for the Stricklands, but is he good for the voters in Ventura County?
Well Hanna Beth better get herself a fantastic vote by mail campaign and have it in place by early September - not as an afterthought in October. The Stricklands are masters at this, and they will be able to combine efforts through the VCRCC to pay for personal calls to all the voters, followed by personal chase calls and visits to their supporters until they know for a fact the voter has cast a ballot.
Stricklands used this primary to hone their get out the vote team to prepare for November. They used it to help Bennett too.
Mongo,
I agree with you that Tony Strickland is an effective campaigner. I don't know there are many people who disagree.
They might disagree with you on if Hannah Beth Jackson is a great campaigner, if she will raise large sums of money, or if this district wants to move to the left or to the right.
But again, it is clear he is effective at raising money and campaigning.
Please rank who is your favorite of these local Republicans:
Elton Gallegly
Tony Strickland
Peter Foy
The only comment I will make here is that I believe the future leadership and structure of both parties in Ventura county will likely depend not only the success or failure of the respective candidates, but the margin of the difference between them both.
More than any other race in 2008, the outcome here will have important implications.
The election will decided by the candidate that can entice the vast majority of the voters registered as DTS while holding (and energizing) his/her base.
Boy, Brian, put me on the spot why don't you. Well, if I had to rank them overall as who I admire most, I'd have to go with:
1. Elton Gallegly
2. Tony Strickland
3. Peter Foy
This is nothing against Foy, but he's still relatively new on the political scene and has yet to establish a record of accomplishments. I like what I see so far though.
Folks, this is much ado about nothing. Jackson ran unopposed.
Maybe Strickland did too, but no one felt any urgency to turn out to vote for this rather meaningless off-off cycle election; it was a waste of taxpayers money.
Let's compare Feb. 3 turnouts if you want a good idea of the Democratic voting numbers.
Of course such a comparison would kill off any further fundraising success for the republicans.
They've had 10 years to run things and I think the results certainly speak for themselves.
Folks, this is much ado about nothing. Jackson ran unopposed.
Maybe Strickland did too, but no one felt any urgency to turn out to vote for this rather meaningless off-off cycle election; it was a waste of taxpayers money.
Let's compare Feb. 3 turnouts if you want a good idea of the Democratic voting numbers.
Of course such a comparison would kill off any further fundraising success for the republicans.
They've had 10 years to run things and I think the results certainly speak for themselves.
I don't think anyone has posted the figures for Santa Barbara County, where Strickland has had a barrage of misleading advertising going since last summer. By my accounts from online expenditure reports he must've spent at least $300,000.
Santa Barbara County:
Jackson -- 25,870
Strickland -- 18,943
Turnout was higher for Democrats there in this race. (I'm using April registration figures; maybe somebody has something newer)
Misleading, Marie? Are you talking about the radio spots that highlight Tony's outstanding efforts at reducing our dependence on foreign oil by developing alternative sources of energy? Something we sorely need at a time when gas prices are rapidly approaching $5 a gallon.
How can you claim those are misleading when they're an absolute reflection of reality? What has Jackson done in this area besides a lot of talk?
Regarding your figures from Santa Barbara County, those are not very surprising numbers considering that is where Jackson's base of support resides. How about posting the Ventura County results where no one knows she exists?
So I want to see if I understand some of these comments.
If I've got it right it's OK for Hanna Beth to be owned by the Trial Lawyers and the Unions?
These are where all her large donations have come from.
Good point, Voter. Jackson is also dependent on large donors in south Santa Barbara County (i.e., Santa Barbara and Montecito) where her rich entertainment industry friends live (like Oprah Winfrey).
Tony Strickland will have to work doubly hard to overcome such luminary celebrity donations, which pervade the liberal wing of the political spectrum that is Santa Barbara. That is the place where Jackson can count on the bulk of support, by the way, which is not representative at all of the 19th District. My prediction is she will go the way of Pallant and Martinez because she's absolutely not paying the attention that is due to Ventura County.
Voter and Somebody-
Are you both on crack?
Find me the local support between the out of area donations...
http://www.electiontrack.com/lookup.php?committee=1294413
Mongo/Gibson/Kunicki have left their lips all over the wounded tiger's behind. The tiger is a phony, Ms. Tiger is a phony and the bunch of them will go down to defeat or into a prison one day soon.
Aw, poor Tony. Maybe he can live vicariously through his donation from Kenneth Starr.
And when he's bored he can always hang out with his gambling, alcohol and cigarette friends.
Gosh, how do you suppose Mitt Romney feels about this? I know Mormons frown on all these activities. Isn't he doing a fundraiser with Strickland?
I guess I'd rather have the support of the working folks who belong to unions -- like teachers, firefighters and police officers.
Mongo, give it up. You know I know you're also Somebody. I hate it when you back your own points up yourself. What's worse is when you argue with yourself on my blog.
Why the nerve of you, Marie. Accusing me of being Mongo Flamo? What next? Tony's campaign strategist, I suppose, because I happen to support the candidate of the people in this race? You're starting to sound a lot like Katie Teague who I've had to shut down numerous times due to the same unsubtantiated, hysterical claims.
I am simply a supporter and a donor and, yes, I've helped raise some funds for both Tony and Audra's campaigns because they are both honest, decent, caring, hard-working, compassionate people who really have the best interests of their districts at heart in their campaigns.
Hannah-Beth Jackson will be seen for what she is before this campaign is over. A carpet-bagging far left elitist who will use her Santa Barbara connections and money to advance her own personal causes and agenda, mostly for labor unions and trial lawyers.
You have posted as Somebody on my blog and the IP addresses match with Mongo Flamo's IP addresses.
When are you going to grow up and act like an adult?
Brian,
I came on this blog a short while ago and quickly noticed how ridiculous and repetitive Mongo Flamo's and his various other names' comments were. I commented on them. I finally realized that in the vast majority of his comments he is not interested in any intelligent discussion.
I am tired of reading his comments and his domination of this blog. He may offer some short term benefits in the form of hits to your blog, but I think he is ruining your blog in the long run.
Marie, the question I would pose to you is: When are you going to stop hounding people that disagree with your ideology and attempting to shut down the free flow of information and opinion?
Edmund, you think my comments are repetitious and ridiculous, but that's strictly a personal judgment call and opinion. I think a lot of your comments are just as ridiculous, but you don't hear me crying for banning you from the blog.
This is elitist garbage and I don't see Brian going for any of it.
You and I have had many good exchanges. I don't think disagreeing with your point of view is hounding. I think we're both having fun sometimes. I am a good sport about most things and you have said so yourself.
Last Friday on my blog you mentioned "roughing me up." I got many concerned emails from folks who think I should ask the Star to ban your IP address. They called you many things; "sick puppy" was one phrase I heard several times.
I knew when I jumped into doing a blog that I would be harassed and perhaps more so because I am a woman. I don't mind. But you are very difficult to handle sometimes; Brian has trouble, too.
If I wanted to discourage the free flow of information I would've asked the Star to ban you long ago. Believe me, they've offered to do it.
Marie, I have to say, you do have a flare for the drama. I'm sure you realize that my comment on "roughing you up" was in reference to the political banter that we both engage in on these blogs, as do many others. Much of the "roughing up" is actually done to me, I might add, which I have no problem with. It comes with the territory.
I notice you are also quick to play the "woman card." I have no problems with strong women or women, in general. I appreciate and respect everything you and other women do on this blog and in the political arena, in general. That's just another falsity that's been attributed to me and you keep fanning the flames on it as well.
Hopefully, your skin will get a bit thicker as your experience with political blogs progresses. One can only hope so...
You may think you mean one thing, but my bloggers were definitely concerned; enough to send me lots of email about it.
I think this is the exchange in question:
By Marie on June 6, 2008 12:49 PM
Mongo,
In the past you have posted sexual comments about women, including me, on Brian Dennert's blog, which had to be removed. Here you have used profanity and and other vile and baseless attempts at character assassination which I have had to remove. You threatened a female blogger once here, too. All these things violate my blog rules.
Brian Dennert will back this up.
I like to encourage all points of view here for balance so I let you fly most of the time. But your past track record is abysmal and you know it.
By Mongo Flamo on June 6, 2008 2:13 PM
Ahh, quit belly-aching, Marie. If you can't handle a little roughing up once in a while, you shouldn't be involved in politics. It's a blood sport, like it or not, and you don't appear to have the disposition or the stomach for it.
BTW, I have not used profanity on your blog. That's a lie! I always conceal any profane words with **** and you know that to be true. It's called adding emphasis to the point, a common technique in journalism and free speech.
And, furthermore, I don't recall threatening a female blogger on here either. I would like some proof of this.
By Marie on June 6, 2008 2:41 PM
You told the Pierpont folks to go pound sand up their a-- only you didn't use the hyphens. I removed it and saved it.
You threatened Katie Teague the night before Easter. She protested and asked me to ban you. I didn't.
I'm happy to do so now.
I'm much, much tougher than you think.
Marie and Mongo, chill out. The world isn't watching! Those few bloggers in the Strickland gumba camp thrive on dirty politicals of slash and burn. Those others in the HBJ camp care about the environment, freedom, education and a vibrant economy. You have no need to "out" Mongo. Nothing is gained. Marie, keep putting out the facts about HBJ's successes and Stricklands vices. We will be there to support you and add our dialogue. Mongo/Osborn/Kunick/Gibson, keep humping. Rewards come in heaven and you jerks will not make it to the door. Hate just ain't gonna do it! Strickland may one day learn to stand tall on his record and convictions and mature from his current methods of reinventing himself at every campaign. Until then, he will remain a humped over hulk lacking integrity.
Marie - you are getting threats of being "roughed up" and I am getting harassed - by a person who uses different screen names but the same IP address. Sounds like a misogynist to me. And I noticed anyone with an opinion that deviates from extreme Red gets slammed. That isn't political bantering - that's cyber bullying.
I'm getting real mixed messages on this blog - do independents matter or not? Evidently they are being courted in the HBJ vs TS election but according to almost all of the "political experts" on this blog - they don't amounts to a hill of beans.
Brian/Mongo;
This is to Brian about Mongo.
When Mongo posted that my conclusion about Mongo's comments being repetitous and ridiculous was "strictly a personal judgment call and opinion," Mongo obviously did not know the difference between a fact and an opinion. That Mongo's comments were repetitious is a fact; that they were ridiculous is an opinion. Mongo didn't know the difference.
Mongo also implied that I was seeking a ban on him from this blog. I made no such request. I just wrote to Brian that I thought Mongo was ruining the blog.
Finally, Mongo's conclusion that I was writing "elitist garbage" is more of Mongo's kneejerk repetition of Repug talking points. I certainly want a blog that offers more than talking points from any political party, dem, repub, libertarian or green.
Katie, you do your share of bullying and "roughing up" on this blog, so you're clearly in a "pot calling the kettle black" position here. Zero credibility. You and Marie are obviously trying to play to the PC sensitivities of some of your fellow bloggers by accusing me of being a mysogynist. Please....
Nothing could be further from the truth and this is all empty hyperbole and sour grapes simplu because I make good points and call you on things you're not used to being called on.
I am confident Brian will see through your clear attempt at limiting free speech and stifling the thoughts and opinions of a long-time and enlightened blogger that you happen to disagree with.
I will say one final thing here and then I'm done, Mongo. You seem to think of these blogs as your personal playground. As blog moderators, both Brian and I have the final say on what goes -- and doesn't go.
It has nothing to do with your ideology; it has everything to do with the inappropriateness of your comments.
Heil Marie!!!!
While arguing that Katie or Marie are wrong Mongo called one of them hysterical.
Read the origin of the word and select another word when ridiculing women and pretending you aren't sexist.
Oh, brother, now I've heard everything.
Oops, sorry, I used the term "brother", a male-oriented term, which clearly shows my gender bias, my ignorance, and my sexist attitude.
Mongo, I do enjoy your entertainment value. Someone, unfortunately, has to have your job and you do a pretty good job of it.
I've voted for Gallegly and consider him a friend. I've voted for Tom McClintock. But Strickland is no Gallegly or McClintock. Strickland is a user of people and of the political system for the enrichment of himself. He is everything that voters see as bad in American politics of late. He is, indeed, simply a phony.
No Mongo, my friend, keep up the job.
Surf's up. Marie, see you at the pier.
Hey Moondoggie,
Thanks for the kind words. You and I aren't always on the same page politically, but we certainly have a mutual respect for each other.
No worries about me continuing to express my views on this blog, buddy. I will continue to proudly display the "opposing view." After all, if I wasn't doing it, who would, right?
See you in the waves...
It has come to my attention that Ventura County has reported final numbers yet either.
I will post the numbers when they come in.
I haven't seen final numbers. If you see them please send me an email.