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VP Guesses

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I attended the forum at Saddleback Church Saturday night. I am thinking through my reactions and I will write about it in the coming days. For instant talking points and analysis you have plenty of resources. I want to write about the event after some of the dust has cleared.

I am disappointed that John McCain was not in "The Cone of Silence" as Pastor Rick Warren said he was when he started the night. Both candidates were asked the same questions so having staff be able to prepare someone for a few more minutes for the upcoming questions could be helpful.

I have a transcript and I assume many of you watched the forum. If you did or did watch the forum leave me a comment with your thoughts.

I was wondering what passages from scripture either of the candidates would bring up in their answers. The only direct reference I caught was from Barack Obama when he mentioned America's greatest failings and brought up passages from the Book of Matthew. Here is a basic quote from Matthew:


'I tell you the truth, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers of mine, you did for me.'

The rest of my thoughts I will write about soon. But many people are putting out their guesses for VP so I figured it would be a fun discussion here.

What are your top three predictions for each candidate?

Do you think the story will leak early before the text messages go out? If Barack Obama can control his campaign from leaking this information early it will be a great sign of his control over his staff and supporters.

Here are my picks in no particular order:


Barack Obama
1. Hillary Clinton
2. Evan Bayh
3. Tim Kaine

I will make my John McCain picks later.

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54 Comments

Brian,

With all due respect, I hope none of your picks gets selected.

Tim Kaine is needed in Virginia--and I'm a former northern Virginian, so I'm somewhat familiar with the politics there.

Hillary Clinton represents 1990s Democratic politics and puts the whole "Change" meme under a serious cloud.

Evan Bayh, IMO, represents DC insider status. Enough said.

I don't have any picks yet because I don't believe I'm well enough acquainted with the strengths and weaknesses of any remaining top-level politicians that might recommend each candidate for the job. I hope I can be excited when I get that email from the campaign.

I saw bits and pieces of the Saddleback interviews. Am I the only one bothered by the fact that a political event of this magnitude took place in a church and that Rick Warren has the candidates' cell phone numbers and can reach them anytime he wants? That gives me the creeps.

Rev. Warren may have had good intentions with his Cone of Silence (that name alone trivializes the process), but the simple fact is that McCain had access to at least some of the questions beforehand, if only through his advisors' ears. Even that advantage still didn't stop McCain from showing how completely out of touch he is.

To clarify, my picks is who is likely, not to imply they are or are not who I most want to be picked.

Brian, I meant no offense, I was just using your phrasing.

I've read the chatter around Kaine for awhile now, and I hope that's all it is.
I would love to see someone with a different perspective than a long-term Congressman or Senator; I guess that's naive. Of course, we are talking about VP, and that position essentially has no power, right? Well, before 2001 that is.

Brian,

Have you thought more about your conclusions of the Saddleback interviews? I would be very interested to read them.

I find that the sentiments expressed in this article currently best convey my discomfort with the event and some of the questions asked.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/19/AR2008081902396.html?referrer=emailarticle

I think we're going down a slippery slope if we don't put a stop to this. I don't believe in religious-litmus tests for any public office, and I find the erosion of separation of church and state in this country alarming.

I would be thrilled if Obama picked Joe Biden or Bill Richardson. Those were my No. 1 and 2 picks for the race all along, but they didn't go anywhere.

I used to like McCain much more than I do right now. He is now spouting the same right-wing talking points that every other Republican uses. In 2000 he sounded more like his own man, the "maverick" that I admired. He is pandering now to get elected. Maybe asking Lieberman to go along would soften that. But he risks the wrath of those he's pandering to.

Wasn't Biden busted on plagarism in one of his speeches many years ago?

Spoken like a true Republican, Katie. (For those who question her allegiances)

That plagiarism thing was in the "Swift Boat" vein and pretty silly stuff. Biden's seasoned, amiable and has impeccable credentials. I've always liked him. Same with Richardson. They're both good men and have served their country well.

I'm pretty sure it's going to be Joe Biden.

Katie, you're right, he did get busted for plagiarism years ago during one of his previous runs for president. I believe it was during the 1988 presidential primary. He used a speech from Neil Kinnock (former leader of the British Labor Party) that he didn't properly attribute to Kinnock when he made it. I think he also plagiarized a law review article when he was in law school at Syracuse. I think this was more inadvertent (i.e., failed to use correct citations).

Given all the other stuff that's out there about candidates these days, I don't think plagiarism ranks very high on the list of serious offenses.

Biden would add some much-needed credibility and experience to the Obama ticket in the foreign policy area. One major down side is that he's quite outspoken and loves a good argument (an area where Obama also falls a little short - too congenial?). But, all in all, he would probably be a pretty good choice.

Personally, I like Bill Richardson, but I think there may be too much tension between him and the Clintons right now, so Obama may be willing to forego picking him to keep the peace with Hillary and Bill.

I think either one would be a good pick. Bill R. showed some real guts when he went with Obama - he was one of the first defectors if I remember. Biden has stayed out of the papers since he was slapped around.

You unfortunately are right when you say plagarism ranks pretty low these days - we have wide stances, $100K's in freezers, etc.

Can't wait to see who McCain will pick.

We need to move on from Hillary and Bill! I am sick of both of them and have been for a long, long time. (To my friends in the NWPC: sorry!)

I love that Biden is outspoken. He and Chuck Hagel are two of my favorite politicians. They always call it as they see it. I love that speech Hagel made awhile back when he was was chastising his fellow senators for being gutless. "If you want a safe job, go sell shoes."

Somebody should choose him as VP but they won't. I'm also very fond of Olympia Snowe. McCain should pick her.

Marie and Katie,

What do you think either candidate needs to get the currently uncommitted female vote?

I found this article interesting
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/19/AR2008081902258.html?referrer=emailarticle

especially given the data that women remain undecided much longer than men. Are Hillary supporters going to want to see a certain VP choice?

I still think Kathleen Sibelius would be a daring, if unlikely, pick. Politico reports that McCain won't announce until Aug. 29, so presumably his choice won't impact Obama. I'd love for McCain to pick Lieberman, if only to get Joe out of the Senate that much sooner (I'm betting his power will be stripped next Jan.) .

A fellow volunteer who happens to be a Latino told me he likes Bill Richardson and Joe Biden, but thought Biden had the better chance because he's a white male. Do you think Obama needs to pick a white male to be viable?

Obama should pick Colon Powell. America needs a insider in power to properly prosecute the Republicans.

I think McCain should pick Condi Rice but that will never happen. She's very smart, young and tough.

I don't know anythng about Sibelius. I think Obama is so out of the box that it doesn't really matter about the color/sex of his running mate. He will overshadow his pick and has galvinized his base.

All things considered, I think McCain will go with Minnesota Governor, Tim Pawlenty. He's a fresh face and is pretty good on economic issues. He's more conservative on immigration than McCain, which would provide a good counter balance and he has the executive level experience McCain is lacking.

There's an outside chance he'll pick Mitt Romney, but I don't consider it likely. He would help counter balance McCain's weakness on the economy and would bring in some conservatives, many of whom haven't signed on with McCain yet. Third on my list would be Tom Ridge, since he supports abortion. But, the guy has the personality of a dixie cup.

No way will he go with Lieberman. There would be a revolt in the Republican Party. He's already having enough trouble swaying the conservatives. This would be the last nail in his coffin.

Mmmm. Mmmm! Chicken and Condoleezza Rice....
You're one hell of a cook Katie. Keep rattling those pots and pans the VCRCC might take you back just yet.

I think it will be Senator Biden

got_hope,

As far as the female vote goes, I think a lot of us would like to see No Child Left Behind dramatically altered or even given the axe. It's been a dismal failure. McCain supports it; Obama doesn't.

Obama is for reproductive choice; McCain is not. Both support federal funds for stem cell research which many women I talk to say they hope can move forward when Bush leaves office.

We're all sick of this war. As a mother with a son, I worry about the possibility of the draft rearing its head at some point. I see our tax dollars being poured down the drain to perpetuate this ill-advised mess in Iraq. Our children will all be paying for it down the line.

Marie, I couldn't agree more. NCLB (and California's dismal education spending) are why I home-schooled my kids for the last two years and will continue to do so for my older child. We moved from the East Coast a few years back, and my, the difference is huge. So much for my due diligence.

I actually don't fear the draft--I think there is no way Congress will pass a draft bill in the short-term, because then the war would be over post-haste. The average Congressman/Senator and rich fat cat in the US would never dream of putting their little Johnny or Susie on the front line. Let the poor, uneducated, and minorities fight this war, right?

I actually think required military service of some duration is not a bad thing--I think it spreads the burden more fairly across socioeconomic levels and might have a very important secondary benefit of increasing commitment of all Americans to the ideas of service to others and to one's country. Not to mention increase people's likelihood to voice their sentiments to Congress about getting into an unnecessary war.

How does McCain's support of stem cell research jive with his extreme anti-abortion stance? I see that he voted in 2007 to allow research on embryos left over from fertility clinics. Why isn't the religious right punishing him for this? What am I missing?

I thought this thread was supposed to be about predicting the VP picks, not bashing Bush and McCain and anything else vaguely Republican.

My prediction for Obama is Biden. I've heard some recent scuttle about him going with Hillary though in an effort to revitalize and re-energize his campaign, which has been slumping lately due to McCain's strong performance in Orange County last week and his own wiggling and waffling style that hasn't served him well.

For McCain, I think he'll end up choosing Romney, although Tom Ridge would be a very, very close second. No way will he go with Lieberman. Remember, this guy was Gore's running mate in 2000 and is as liberal as they come on most issues, except the war in Iraq. Republicans would stay home if he picked this guy.

Anyone attacking Barack Obama for shifting positions but not mentioning John McCain's many flip flops is leaving out context.

John McCain has flip flopped on immigration, Bush's tax cuts, his own criticisms of the religious right, off shore drilling, Roe V. Wade, and not running a negative campaign.

This thread was also supposed to discuss the Saddleback interviews, but so far not many people want to talk about that.
So much for separation of church and state, I say.
Just one of the many principles that have been thrown to the wayside over the last 8 years.

I'll certainly weigh in on the Saddleback interviews. I saw them on CNN and McCain basically cleaned Obama's clock. His response on how to deal with "evil" in the world was classic.

I think we were able to see clearly who would be the better leader of the two after this event. McCain actually responded to the questions, whereas, Obama hemmed and hawed his way through them.

I think Obama needs to understand that these interviews and forums are not the same thing as his college lecture classes. He needs to provide clear, concise, direct answers. This shows decisiveness and leadership skills. When that call comes at 3 AM, he's not going to have time to conduct a focus group, or debate the issue with a roomful of people with actual foreign policy experience.


“The one thing that I think is very important is for us to have some humility in how we approach the issue of confronting evil, but you know a lot of evil has been perpetrated based on the claim that we were trying to confront evil. Just because we think our intentions are good doesn’t always mean that we’re going to be doing good.? Barack Obama

"Be careful when you fight monsters, lest you become one." Frederich Nietzsche

Here is another one for you Barack...

"The visionary lies to himself, the liar only to others" Nietzsche

Oh yeah, I forgot. We imagined 911 and the 1993 World Trade Center bombings. We imagined the London and Madrid train bombings. We imagined the bombing of the Marine barracks and bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut. We imagined the USS Cole bombing. We imagined the U.S. Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania. We imagined the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland.

Would you like me to go on...?

You two don't make sense.

Where did he say anything about not destroying evil?

McCain would commit American troops to Georgia? Is that what we are talking about?

Aca,

Have you even been following this thread? The issue is how we confront evil. John McCain says we destroy it. Barack Obama doesn't seem too sure this is the right approach, based on his comments at Saddleback.

He dances around the issue of whether we should take a strong stand against evil, implying that we are just as evil if we seek to fight fire with fire and attack it before it attacks us.

This concerns me greatly because, during this particular time in our history, we need a strong, decisive leader who's not afraid to respond quickly and sternly to any and all threats to our health, well-being, and livelihood as a nation. We cannot pussy-foot around with terrorists and give them mixed messages of our intentions. That makes them stronger, increases their resolve, and makes us look weak and vulnerable, which is exactly how we don't want to look when confronted with terrorist organizations.

John McCain knows how to deal effectively with rogue nations and and terrorist threats. This is not a time for on-the-job training.

I guess when Obama lectured us from Saddleback, "whatever you do to the least of my brothers you do to me".

Obama didn't mean the preborn with a beating heart.

Gibson's Folly,

Who are you talking to? Yourself?

PanAm 103 was reportedly the fault of Libyans, although there are interesting lawsuits filed asserting that it was the result of a CIA/Mossad clandestine effort. I don't tend to follow conspiracy theories, so I didn't bother to track it down. But I am quite certain that Libya is not next door to Iraq or Saudi Arabia, so we really can't blame al-Qaeda for that one. I'm sure that won't stop some people from trying, however.

With regard to the travesty at Saddleback, McCain basically vomited up chunks of his stump speech in response to every question he was asked. I'm a secularist and even I have more spiritual depth than that pandering old fool. His faith means nothing more than "I'm saved and going to heaven"?--is that the limit to his self-awareness? Bush's third term, here we come. Of course, McCain loves to talk in the authoritarian overlord speak of the "compassionate conservative," placating the fears of the faithful in the crowd. "Don't worry yourselves, folks, I'm going to follow bin Laden to the gates of hell." The guy can't remember how many houses he owns, how in the world is he going to track down the guy Bush gave up on? Oh yeah, let's throw another 4000 dead American men and women and thousands more with no arms and legs into the Middle East. That's the ticket.

Got_Citizenship?,

You obviously missed the message here. I'll try and go a little slower this time.

Terrorism is terrorism, whether it's from Libya, Iran, Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Quaeda, or whoever. In fact, this just amplifies my point. We can't be concerned enough about our national security, border protection, immigration/visa issues and what's going on on an international level, with regard to the breeding and exporting of terrorism. John McCain talks with authority about these issues because he knows what he's talking about.

Obama, on the other hand, is having trouble proving he's even a citizen these days. What a joke. And this guy wants to be our Commander-In-Chief? He can barely decide where to go for lunch, much less how to respond to or develop a strategy to combat terrorism.

Hey Brian. Look on HuffPost now.

I am so excited! This is exactly what I had hoped for. Biden was my No. 1 pick for president, but I will settle for VP!

Excellent choice!

Marie

Hey all,

Coming to you from the "Big Apple." Just arrived at the hotel about an hour ago and caught the CNN coverage of the Biden selection. I think it will help Obama, no doubt. Biden's a great debater, has been around Washington forever, and has been on some real heavy-hitting committees (Foreign Relations & Judiciary). He'll help Obama on the foreign policy front.

He's a powerful guy and also a good friend of John McCain's. That dynamic will be interesting during the campaign.

Well, time to hook up with the guys and go find a good Irish bar. I'll be checking in from time to time.

Regards!

Folly,

Dude, seriously, you are building up some really negative karma.
Chill out, you know, otherwise in your next life, you're going to come back as a dung beetle or slime mold or something.

You've been blogging all day, dude. No internet access on a plane.

Barack Obama was born in Hawaii. Only a racist smear artist pretends otherwise. McCain understands foreign policy? Then why did he support the war in Iraq without more troops going in at first? Why did Joe Lieberman have to help him define Al Queda?

You could bother to get your news from legitimate sources instead of the bile that comes out of you. He was born here and is a citizen. Why would you be suspicious of where he was born? Because he is black?

Go away.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/154599

Brian,
I think everybody would enjoy if you set up a post for Mongo so we can follow his journey with selling some timeshare in the Bronx or whatever he is doing in New York.

Obama selects Biden as VP for foreign policy experience.

Biden voted for the Iraq war authorization.

Is Obama ready to say Biden lacks the foreign policy judgment to be President that he so often used against Clinton and now McCain?

Biden lacks foreign policy judgment because he voted for the Iraq war according to Obama's own logic. That is for sure.

The only thing they agree on is redistributing wealth.

Obama's pick now opens him up to all the problems Biden has from his close ties to big financial interests who incorporate in in Biden's home state of Delaware.

Countrywide
Indymac

Biden voted for the Bankruptcy reform bill that is a kick in the teeth to most working families, but was a nice giveaway to all the big financial interests who caused these economic problem in the first place.

You'll see they all happen to reside in Biden's state of Delaware.

Check the link:

Looks like one of Biden's top contributor Baron & Budd made news recently. "Trial Lawyer Fred Baron, acknowledged paying for former presidential candidate John Edwards's mistress to re-locate."

Check out the rest of Biden's financial interests at open secrets.

http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/08/the-money-behind-biden.html

How come you have nothing nice to say about McCain? Your venom for Barack Obama is sad.

Did you support the bankruptcy bill?

Oh my goodness. The smear machine starts already. Put down your Karl Rove Playbook for a few hours and go out and enjoy your day, would you?

Biden's a good man and his wife is a delight, too. He's an asset to the ticket and I couldn't be happier about this news.

Wow, I guess I did not know how emotional non-Obama supporters could get. It's 80 degrees and beautiful outside, I'm enjoying the day how about you?

Remember the "clean black man" comment from Biden? I'm surprised he didn't call him a "house Negro."

Then there's the plagiarism charges. We'll see how he defends himself from those issues.

He said he was clean, as in free from scandal.

Are you playing ignorant or is it real?

The problem is, I don't think anyone knew what he meant, even Joe Biden. If he meant clean, as in no corruption or criminal charges in his background (as you're suggesting), isn't that as bad as clean, as in physically dirty? It's a reference to his race, either way.

Wow, Got_Hope, you need to get over yourself a bit. Anyone that disagrees with you is going to have negative karma? How perfectly non-ego-centric of you.

The point on Obama's citizenship is a perfectly valid one. He may have been born in Hawaii, but he went to Jakarta, Indonesia when he was 6 years old where he was adopted by an Indonesian couple. Now, if you know anything about constitutional law, the fact that he was legally adopted by citizens of another country requires him to go through a re-patriation process in order to reclaim his U.S. citizenship. Obama never did this. Therefore, he is not a legal citizen of the United States.

There is a Democratic lawyer has filed a lawsuit in federal court contesting whether he is eligible to run for president. I don't know about you guys, but I think he needs to follow the Constitution like the rest of us.

Biggest news story this weekend is the Biden VP pick and the Democratic convention, but instead it spends its time going after Mormons and Guiliani. Guiliani is out of the race.

Funny story -- Biden voted with McCain and Clinton on the Iraq war.

According to Obama's own words, this disqualifies Biden for office, just as it does McCain and Clinton.

Obama's campaign has officially contradicted it's entire reason for running with this pick.

Can you blame this gotcha blog known for finding any contradiction in any Republican for not covering the greatest whopper contradiction of all time from Obama?

Nope. This Obama blog is silent.

The lawyer suing to contest Obama's citizenship is Phillip Berg, a very well-respected and politically active attorney. He also has strong ties to the Clintons. Hmmmmm, the plot thickens...

He was born in America to a US citizen.

He is a citizen.

Read the Constitution.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/citizen.asp

I think McCain will pick Giuliani. It's a politically fatal mistake on McCain's part but that's who I think he will pick. There are better choices for America yet none of those choices are as controlled by the current criminal Republican party and they are the ones doing the choosing.

An offering must be made to the Republican alter if McCain wants party support. The offering will be the Vice Presidency.
It's not Mitt Romney. VCRCC types like Tony Strickland are just playing off Mitt Romney's ego to get money from him.

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