Another story on provisional ballots...

Looks like it's over for Hannah Beth. To many ballots in Ventura versus Santa Barbara.

He only gained .9 % on her with the latest round with an only 4.61 % difference between them vs. S.B. county with a 10.6 % difference between them in HBJ's favor. Those 4,000 ballots will be rich in votes for HBJ. Add those to the 20,000 or so provisionals which will lean her way and we've still got a ball game.

He only gained .9%? That's like saying: He only keeps winning by a small margin.

This thing is over, save for Parke Skelton's self-serving predictions. You know him, right? He's the overpaid consultant who Hannah-Beth's people are totally disgusted with right now?

Strickland will win this when its all said and done.

Run for the hills!!!

Strickland will win this when its all said and done.

Run for the hills!!!

Nobody's disgusted with anybody except bloggers who post falsehoods.

Grow up.

The provisionals will put her over the top. Even Joe Justin's worried.

Strickland will win this when its all said and done.

Run for the hills!!!

Santa Barbara County just reported the results of an extra 3,682 ballots in the 19th AD: HBJ picked up a net of 284 votes. At the same time, Los Angeles reported the results of an extra 922 ballots in the 19th AD: Tony picked up a net of 284 votes, to exactly cancel out Santa Barbara. That leaves Tony with the same lead of 540 votes that he had yesterday.

This is very bad news for HBJ, considering that Santa Barbara has few remaining ballots to count, while there's still a big batch in Ventura waiting to come in. Even worse news for HBJ is that her percentages are declining in the remaining ballots. Her overall percentage in Santa Barbara is 55.24%, while her percentage in today's batch was 53.86%. Her overall percentage in Los Angeles is 42.44%, while her percentage in today's batch was only 34.60%.

It's almost time for the fat lady...

DW - I sent you an e-mail to your blog account.

I'm sure both candidates are waiting for the provisionals. And I expect Ventura will tend towards HBJ, not TS. So I don't see bad news for either candidate just yet.

Is LA done?

Katie,

I forget, who did you vote for again?

Katie, you're right, the provisionals could be sufficiently different from the early absentees, late absentees, and election day voting that HBJ might still pull out a victory. That why the fat lady is only warming up and not yet singing.

Nonetheless, this is very bad news for HBJ. She needed to stay closer in the regular absentees. Santa Barbara is not keeping her nip-and-tuck the way it should have. Instead, her percentages are declining across the board. The remaining late absentee ballots from Ventura will probably pad Tony's lead to the point where it would take a really radical shift in the provisional ballots to overcome it.

So we'll see. But I suspect that Tony is sleeping better this week than HBJ is.

The percentages for each candidate in S.B. and L.A. counties have barely budged. Looks like Tony has a net of 535. Fat lady doesn't sing until the provisionals are in. They're counted last.

Deception, see my post on the Lisagor announces victory over Chris Valenzano thread - you'll get your answer there.

DW - so what is your perspective on the Ventura ABs?

Thanks, Katie. I figured you voted for Jackson. I just needed to hear it out loud, I guess. It's OK just to say it though. No one's going to think any less of you. I did and I used to be a Republican too.

Deception, you are being deceiving again so I'll bring my post over here.

"By Katie Teague on November 11, 2008 2:23 PM
What I do in the election booth is private - but obviously many, many Reps voted for Obama. I did vote for Mark Lisagor and made no secret of my belief that he was the much better candidate. Clearly, many others were of the same mindset.

It isn't a question of Rep. versus Dems but sane Reps versus nutcase Reps. I am one of the sane ones."

So Deception, quit acting so worried and stressed out. Politics is a game - so take a chill pill!

"many Reps voted for Obama"

That is incomprehensible . . .

To Not so fast: It only looks like the overall percentages for the two candidates have barely budged, because the early absentees and election-day votes totaled much more than the late absentees which have so far been counted.

Here's the reality: At the end of election day Tony had 44.58% of the vote in Santa Barbara, 52.20% in Ventura, and 56.62% in Los Angeles; overall he had 49.98% and was behind by 108 votes. In the late absentee ballots which have been counted since then, Tony has 45.53% in Santa Barbara, 53.08% in Ventura, and 63.15% in Los Angeles; overall he has 50.58% in the late absentees and a net gain of 648 votes in the late absentees. So he has improved his performance across the board. Most of the remaining late absentee ballots are in Ventura County, so his lead should increase further when those are added in later this week.

To Katie: Next we need to consider the provisional ballots. Those are not as predictable, but historical evidence says that they tend to follow the late absentees more so than the pre-election absentees or the election day voting. Consider for example the 2006 Supervisorial race between Foy and Dantona. On election day Foy had 49.42% and trailed Dantona by 309 votes. 9 days later, after the late absentees has been counted, Foy led Dantona by 734 votes. Foy garnered 54.47% of those late absentees. Two weeks later, after the provisional ballots had been counted, Foy led Dantona by 895 votes. Foy garnered 53.34% of those provisional ballots.

Since the 5th Supervisorial District makes up a good chunk of the 19th Assembly District, I'd expect to see a similar pattern as Ventura County works its way through the remaining absentee and provisional ballots. Extrapolating the above numbers, I'd anticipate that the remaining absentee and provisional ballots in Ventura county will add between 1,000 and 1,500 votes to Tony's lead. Los Angeles may add 100 to 200 votes to his lead. Which means that HBJ would have to net between 1,650 and 2,250 votes in Santa Barbara to catch up. She only netted 284 votes from yesterday's batch of Santa Barbara absentees, leaving mostly provisional ballots to count. It seems unlikely in the extreme that she'll squeeze out enough votes from the Santa Barbara provisional ballots to flip the election outcome.

DW - The 5th Supervisorial District is mostly Oxnard - which in large part NOT included in the 19th so how do you figure it is a good model? Also, you said that much of Ventura needed to be counted and that it would go to TS. I thought this was a Dem city.

Owen - Timm Hertd wrote a good article explaining that all but two cities went with Obama and the 2 cities that did go for McCain fell way short of their registration %. It was my conconclusion given this information - you would probably know better. Did Ventura County Reps vote for Obama?

Katie -- Sorry, I meant the 4th District where Peter Foy is Supervisor, not the 5th District. The 4th District covers Simi Valley and Moorpark, which is a large chunk of the 19th AD. And when I said "Ventura" I was referring to Ventura County, not the city.

Makes more sense!

Katie, you seem to be the one with all the stress. Chill out, my dear. I was just asking a question.

You just seemed so defensive of the fact that you've switched over to the Dems and I was just offering a little reassurance to you that it's OK. I did the same thing. I was a Republican for over 15 years, but after the fiasco of the Bush administration and seeing what's going on in Ventura County Republican politics, I saw fit to change my registration too.

Best of luck to you and whoever you choose to support in the future.

Sorry to hear you switched to Dems. I've been a Rep since I was 18 and plan on remaining a Rep. You shouldn't have given up so easy. But then alot of people have. And sorry you are having such a problem with the senate race. It will be over soon.

Cheers, Katie.

Yeah, I know the senate race will be over soon. Not looking forward to the final results however.

Katie, didn't you say that you once voted for Alan Keyes?

Hah! Wouldn't surprise me. She's famous for supporting losers.

Yeah -- like Lisagor beating Valenzano and Flores beating Miller. Oh yeah - I forgot. They won.

Funny, you failed to mention Mike Tenenbaum (pounded by Gallegly in the primary), Robert Orellano (thrashed by Jeff Bennett), Ferial Masry (soundly defeated by Audra Strickland), and Hannah-Beth Jackson (about to declared the loser to Tony Strickland).

Sounds like a 2-4 win-loss ratio. Not so good...

Funny, you failed to mention Mike Tenenbaum (pounded by Gallegly in the primary), Robert Orellano (thrashed by Jeff Bennett), Ferial Masry (soundly defeated by Audra Strickland), and Hannah-Beth Jackson (about to declared the loser to Tony Strickland).

Sounds like a 2-4 win-loss ratio. Not so good...

Mongo - Which of those candidates you mentioned did Katie endorse? I remember her supporting Orellana and Lisagor and I believe actively campaigned for them. She never endorsed Tenenbaum, Masry or HBJ that I am aware.
Are you re-inventing history?

He thinks that if he repeats its enough, it will become true. Nice to have you back Leslie.

Beats the near 100% failure of the Ventura County Republican Party on non-incumbents (and in Valenzano's case it was an incumbent).

Leslie,

Why don't you ask her yourself, since you guys are such major buds?

I'm not sure if she "endorsed" them per se, but she certainly supported them and voted for them (all of them).

The County just posted some new results. The races I was tracking are over but I'm curious if there have been changes on the Senate Race? The Oxnard City Council? Seems like there were alot of Oxnard votes processed this go around. The No on Unification gained a little bit. Is it time for the Yes on Unification people to concede?