CNN just called Obama the winner, 297 - 139...

When do they change the slogan to "Yes we DID!"???

I know. I instinctively grabbed my wallet as the announcement was being made.

I know you're scared, Shift... but keep in mind that the value of all those extra dollars you saved on taxes went down quite a lot during the last 8 years... maybe we would have been better off with a government that safeguarded the value of the dollar, even if they had to spend a few more to keep it that way.

What the heck is going on down at county elections? There are no new numbers being posted since the first run of absentee ballots.

Brian Dennert is awesome! Yes we can, and we are not done!

Leslie, I'm thinking the same thing. With almost 1/2 million people registered in Ventura County you'd think that we would have some returns counted by now. The elections office is taking their sweet time here. Guess I'll find out in the morning.

Brian,

I frequently blog under my first name. Please add another letter or something to your name to show who you are to other readers.

Thanks for reading and writing on my blog.

Well at least we're finally getting some results posted, although they seem slow compared to recent years.
Regarding the Presidential race:
Senator McCain gave a touching and inspiring concession speech and didn't make people wait when it was clear Obama had the electoral votes. Obama's speech had dignity and class - no gloating, and showed the world that was watching that we are all Americans celebrating not only the election, but the process and rights we all have.
I am very proud to be an American tonight, and I thank both Obama and McCain for taking the high road. It was a fine example for our young first time voters.

I am very pleased with the statewide lead developing for prop 11 redistricting. I just hope it can hold the lead.

What a looooong night! Along with the National & Local races, we've been keeping a close eye on an important race in Oregon that, I am happy to say, was a victory. We've also been up all night revising a script in time for a big studio meeting today...so I won't be getting any sleep soon.

Before the sleepless giddies take hold and the double espressos flip on the jitters, I must say that it was pleasing to see the old McCain return to the podium last night and the new president-elect call for all of us to begin building a better America. If the supporters of both are true to their candidates, the Nation will shine more brilliantly than ever.

Agreed - Go prop 11!

I have four questions for County Elections:
How many votes by mail and provisional ballots are left to count? (I'm guessing well over 50,000)
How many people voted in the county?
When do you estimate having them all counted? (I know you have 28 days to certify te election)
What caused the delay in posting the counts last night? (polls closing late with people in line, glitches, what?)

I can't help but feel like this whole election was a huge mistake!

We all know that Mickey Jones was the right choice for VP!

Shame on you McCaine!
You owe this country and Mickey Jones a big apology!

What a fun place to live Ventura county is. The dichotimies are amazing and interesting to watch. East side vs west side, rich vs poor, gay vs straight. We are a little microcosm of America here. I'm certainly glad that even though people are really passionate about these issues it hasn't ended in violence (that I know of) and most of the discourse has been civil.

Politics are politics, I expect politicians to do what it takes to get hired. I expect people to try to influence others so they can gain from it monetarially. I expect that most of the people elected and propositions passed won't really affect me much. It's been a great election to expose children to a sociology experiment. What would be really cool would be to see a study of the demographics of Ventura county and where the links are between the candidates and the propositions for each demographic. For example: How many people who voted for Prop 8 also vote for Obama? Did the people who voted for Measure U also vote for Prop 8? I would assume that McCain voters wanted Prop 8 passed and measure U to fail but don't have the data to prove it.

BrianD, Thanks for providing a blogging site to us for the election. I'd rather post here than comment after one of the newspaper articles.

Biggest losers: Mike Osborn and the VCRCC. The only races they won were in the extreme safe districts, and even then they lost ground. Look at their endorsement list for non partisan races.

Am I seeing things, or did HBJ really beat Tony Strickland by 108 votes out of over 300,000 cast?

A photo finish, for sure, but not final. We won't know the results of the SD 19 race for another couple of weeks, I'm guessing.

So, has Phil Schmidt screwed up again or what? Why aren't we getting any updates?

Last time this happened certain candidates benefited from the unusually high disqualifications.

For the record, Knolls/Box Canyon/Lake Manor had a near 100% turnout. Let's see if 20% of these ballots get lost.

So, has Phil Schmidt screwed up again or what? Why aren't we getting any updates?

Last time this happened certain candidates benefited from the unusually high disqualifications.

For the record, Knolls/Box Canyon/Lake Manor had a near 100% turnout. Let's see if 20% of these ballots get lost.

Now it's time for Obama to act. No more soaring speeches. No more high-minded rhetoric. No more adoring crowds and celebrity treatment.

Time to roll up the old sleeves and get down to work, Barack. We will finally be able to judge him on his performance, rather than on his promises.

There haven't been any updates from LA or Santa Barbara county either.

There won't be any updates until Thursday or Friday. Their primary job right now is to count number of ballots outstanding - absentees received after last Friday, and provisionals, so they can report that number to the State by Friday.

In Ventura County, there are approximately 76,000 absentee and 10,000 provisionals that need to be counted.

In Santa Barbara, there are 30,420 absentees and 6,336 provisional.

Note that these are COUNTYWIDE numbers, not just the parts of each county that are Senate District 19, so the numbers that will affect SD19 will be lower.

In Los Angeles county, if voter turnout holds at 82%, that would mean there are approximately 7,078 absentee and provisionals to be counted in SD19 in the LA County side.

BrianS:
I voted for Obama, against Prop 8 and against Measure U. Please do not assume U = Republican; it definitely crossed party lines on both sides of that issue, particularly because it was so difficult to get accurate information out to voters. I spent 10 years trying to do just that. As I am a staunch liberal, I assume that other liberals would also have been against it had they had full background information to draw upon. And informed conservatives would also have been against it because it was fiscally chancy in a downward economy.

I am deeply disappointed in the passage of Prop 8 but can only hope that it has opened up such a monster can of legal worms that it may never get past appeals.

But all this pales in comparison to the optimism I feel upon the election of Barack Obama. I have not felt such faith in America since I was a young girl listening to President Kennedy ask me what I could do for my country. I am bursting with pride in my fellow citizens; we have proven once again that America can stand up in these enormous challenges and meet history "i' the teeth." Bravo, America!

Laura:

As usual, when you post, you shed more light on the subject of the hour than most.

Niels Bohr once said that it's very difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. Nonetheless, let's review what we know about the present, and attempt to bound the possible numerical outcomes in the 19th SD.

After all, you and I do know a little something about what's it like to go from a 300+ vote Dantona victory on election night to a 900+ Foy victory, based on absentee ballots, in less than three weeks time, don't we?

First of all, for sake of simplicity in the numbers argument, let's assume that there's no more than 100,000 absentee and provisional votes left uncounted in the 19th SD at this time. It's probably a little less than this number, but let's just round the number up to this level for ease of analysis and explanation.

Now, let's examine the relative distribution of votes already cast in the 19th SD amongst the three counties included in the boundary of that legislative District. Based on the votes already counted, only one-third, or 33% of the votes cast are came Santa Barbara County.

The remaining two-thirds of the votes cast came from Ventura County (i.e. with about 60% of the total votes cast), and from Los Angeles County (with about 7% of the total votes cast).

If we apply the relative spatial distribution percentages to the maximum of no more than 100,000 absentee and provisional votes yet to be counted in the 19th SD, the distribution of those uncounted votes would reflect the following: no more than 33,000 votes in Santa Barbara County, 59,000 in Ventura County, and about 7,500 in Los Angeles County.

Now, let's look at the relative percentage of the vote obtained by both HBJ and Tony Strickland, so far, in those respective counties. Essentially, in Santa Barbara County, HBJ received 55.42% of the total votes cast for 19th SD, her highest percentage in the District. HBJ's comparable peformance figures for Ventura County was 47.80%, and only 43.38% in Los Angeles County.

And since the Santa Barbara County Clerk-Recorder's Office has already posted a detailed statement of votes cast, by precinct, including both mailed ballots cast and precinct ballots cast to date on its website, we also know that HBJ received 58.20% of the votes cast for 19th SD in the precincts of Santa Barbara County, but only 51.94% of the votes cast for 19th SD by absentee voters in Santa Barbara County. That 6% spread between HBJ's voting performance amongst absentee voters and precinct voters in Santa Barbara County becomes very significant given the analysis of how the remaining votes yet to be counted might fall.

Now let's do try extrapolating these voting performance percentages, by county, on the estimated maximum of 100,000 ballots yet to be counted in the 19th SD. If you do the math, you'll see that statisically, HBJ's only path to ultimate victory relies on a larger than likely share of the remaining votes yet to be counted being in Santa Barbara County (i.e. much more than the 33,000 number based on existing geographic spread of votes cast) and/or HBJ receives a higher percentage of the votes yet to be counted in Santa Barbara County than she has already received in the votes already counted (i.e. 58% or greater).

Much like Barrack Obama having more paths to his ultimate Electoral College victory than John McCain, the iron-rule of geographical proportionality of voters that exist within the 19th SD provides Tony with more paths to victory, regarding the votes yet to be counted than HBJ.

First, it is likely, although not certain, that more than two-thirds of those votes will come from the combination of Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties. Second, Tony's relative percent of the votes already cast in both of those counties was much larger than HBJ's. (i.e. 57% vs. 43% in Los Angeles County, and 52% vs. 48% in Ventura County. Therefore, Tony is much more likely to win the majority of these remaining votes either because more of them will be from political geography that is obviously more favorable to him, and has already demonstrated giving him a larger margin of victory than given to HBJ.

Again, while nothing is certain in either politics or life, anything can happen. However, based on the existing geographic distribution of registered voters and votes cast within the 19th SD, and the percentage performance both candidates have already experienced amongst votes already cast and counted, it is very likely that HBJ's existing razor-thin 100 vote margin of victory will evaporate and transmute into a 500 to 700 vote victory by Tony Strickland within the next two weeks.

Nothwithstanding the ultimate outcome of this hard-fought and expensive race, my personal compliments to the hard-working and loyal supporters of both candidates. I've been on both sides of the equation, and after working your heart and soul for a candidate for many months, it is very tough to loose such a close election. Best of Luck to you all.

Ciao Commendatori

NostraDemus

ND-

With a Dem leading a popular Rep by a handful of votes and surprise there are still votes to be tallied.

Let's add one other path to victory

It's not who votes that counts...
It's who counts the votes.

I agree with NostraDemus's comments. Tony Strickland will end up winning this puppy. The odds are definitely in his favor given where all the absentee & provisional ballots are coming from.

NostroDemus: How do you factor in the vote preferences, if there are any, between those who mailed ABs early and those who held on to them until Tuesday? Are the former more conservative and the latter more liberal? Older voters vs younger & newer voters?

The Foy/Dantona campaign wasn't influenced to any great degree by such factors but this election has seen a large increase in Dem voters, a larger request for ABs and a lot more late ballots being entered.

I agree with you that, if there are no such differences, it's likely that Strickland will win.