I watched the election results on TV last night, since most of the election web sites were either not functioning properly or had woefully dated information on them.

I think deep down we all knew this race was going to be close, although I must say, I wasn't expecting a repeat of Bush-Gore in 2000.

Ferial Masry will lose, that's a no brainer.

Hannah Beth Jackson will also lose because of Tony's strength in the absentees and the East part of the district. He was leading after the initial absentees were counted and then at the end of the night, Hannah Beth was ahead by a mere 108 votes. Once the late absentees are counted, she's done.

According to Timm Herdt, she didn't do as well as she needed to in Santa Barbara (15% over Dem registraton) to offset the eastern part of the district, and Tony did better than the 7% he needed to in the initial absentees, as pointed out by Timm Herdt.

People voted for Barack Obama, but voted for more conservative candidate here at home. With stronger candidates from the eastern part of the district, the Democrats would have won these two seats.

I'd keep your powder dry - nobody knows what will happen. Even the conservative FlashReport is hemming and hawing on the Strickland/Jackson race.

The Strickland/Masry race could be flipped in the end as well.

And then there is the McClintock/Brown race - McClintock holds a very slim lead in a very Republican district.

All of the races should have been slam-dunk wins for the Republican candidates.

Obviously, the constituency isn't happy with right-wing conservativism - we want action instead of empty words.

Between HBJ and TS, I've heard all about how partisanship will be a thing of the past and believe me - no matter who wins - I'll be quoting from the gazillion mailers I've received!

I ran numbers based on two scenarios for the absentees and provisionals.

First, I based it on the percentages of the pure absentee votes based on the initial numbers posted by the respective election divisions. The breakdown was as follows:

SB: HBJ 51.3%, TS 48.17
VTA: HBJ 46.02%, TS 53.60%
LA: HBJ 36.32%, TS 63.68%

Second, I based a count on the end of night percentages, which included ballots cast at precincts:

SB: HBJ 55.23%, TS 44.42%
VTA: HBJ 47.61%, TS 51.99%
LA: HBJ 43.38%, TS 56.62%

Lastly, I looked at the number of provisionals. I eliminated 20% of those cast as likely to be determined invalid. I then gave the benefit of the doubt to HBJ and gave her 60% of the valid provisionals versus 40% for TS.

No matter the combination of scenarios listed above, Tony Strickland prevailed as the winner by either 300+ votes to 3,000+ votes.

Katie,

Not sure how you can conclude that the Strickland-Jackson race should have been a slam dunk for Strickland. Everyone knew this race was going to be close given Strickland's strength in most of Ventura County and Jackson's name recognition and history in Santa Barbara County.

It seems you're just trying to minimize Tony's success in this race by saying he should have won big and didn't. Faulty logic, for sure, and just another indication of your personal disdain and grudge against the Stricklands and the Ventura County Republican Party.

Mango - you were the one that said he had it by 10 or 15 points. I remained neutral for the entire race.

Strickland, a CM for McClintock and maybe a staffer, should have gotten his mailing list for the area.

Thus it was a slam dunk.

Should have read remained neutral except for the last week.

I reached out to one of the candidates in the 19th Senate race in regards to being a volunteer and contributor. I heard nothing back from them. I feel very strongly that I could have made a huge difference in the campaign. I would suggest to all local candidates never underestimate or overlook anyone that wants to help.

"Nobody" would have made ahue difference in the campaign of the unknown candidate. Wow! Nobody, what do you say when you look in the mirror every morning? "I love me!"

I've linked the site from www.sos.ca.gov that shows updates for absentee and provisional ballots by County.

First small batch of absentees counted and updated by Ventura County today.

TS now leads HBJ by 840 votes.

Of the votes counted today, TS took 54.61% and HBJ took 45.39%.

Lost Again,

Thanks for updating us. This thing ain't over yet, but it's certainly looking better and better for Tony as time goes by.

Katie,

Like I was the only one who blustered a bit during the race. I seem to remember you blustering in the other direction at every opportunity. It's part of politics. Deal with it.

You've got to be a pretty unhappy camper though right about now, huh?

Unhappy? Why do you say that? Lisagor and Flores won for VCBOE and so did my two candidates for CVUSD.

Don't know about Prop 11 yet.

So I'm batting a thousand!!

Oh, c'mon Katie, level with us a little here. You know darn well you're biggest prize in this election would have been to see both Stricklands go down in flames. But that didn't happen. In fact, it's looking pretty good that they're both going to win. That's what I'm talking about...

Tony just spent 4.5 million dollars telling me he's an independent thinker and hates partisan politics. He will also create jobs. How can I not like that message?

And his opponent, that little old liberal lady from Santa Barbara, spent $3.5 million trying to convince us she's not a taxer and a spender (despite much evidence to the contrary) and how she also despises partisan politics. And that message won you over?

Mango - you don't know who is going to win and I don't know and the candidates don't know.

What I have said still holds true - both candidates together spent close to $8 million to try to convince the voting populace they were above partisan politics. Soooo, no matter who wins better act accordingly in office.

The day of the right wing Republican is over. This election proved it. There were big losses locally and nationally. I am a pro-Life, pro-gun Republican but I am also pragmatic. That's why Palin didn't appeal to me and many others. She lacked much in the complete package.

I am shocked that 8 passed - but then spending on it broke all records. What a waste of money. Either way, it was going to the courts.

My big election goal was achieved - I wanted Mark Lisagor to win. I walked precincts for him and was on his massive rah-rah team. And he won very decisively - something like 60% to 40% against an incumbent.

You and all your numerous other fake screen names been a puppy dog for a senate candidate on this blog - not me.

Arf!!

Who's the puppy dog, Katie? You just said you were on Lisagor's "rah-rah team." Sounds very puppyish to me.

I supported a candidate I believed in from the beginning and still do. You claimed to be on the fence in the SD-19 race, but you were anything but. You bashed the Stricklands at every opportunity. In a sense, you were the pit bull of negativity.

Why do you think Valenzano lost? Looks like the machine is crumbling.

He probably could have run a better campaign. You can only rely on "the machine" for so much. At some point, you have to make the campaign your own and go hit the streets with the rest of them.

If he wasn't running against someone you support would you consider supporting Lisagor for this position? What party is Lisagor? Did he run a good campaign?

****, Lisagor ran a great campaign. It was really impressive. Plus he was out there personally hustling. A little labor goes a long way.

Strickland is up by 840 votes as of yesterday. This thing could go on for another month though, given all the additional ballots that need to be counted and verified.

Good news for Strickland supporters that it's starting to swing back in the right direction, but, again, that could change. Bad news for Katie though.

Who cares if Phony Tony Strickland wins? If he wins he will be a do nothing just like McClintock was. The only thing Phony Tony cares about is using public office to shove as much money as possible into his own pockets, he will do nothing for the 19th District. If HBJ wins at least we would have someone who would bring resources and jobs to the 19th. I suspect Tony will win, but then again who cares, it will be status quo for the 19th, we will have a state senator who cares less about his constituients.

L.A. just updated. Tony is now up 1571 votes.

Can they get his desk through a prison cell door? That's probably the real question we should be asking ourselves.