Ventura County posted new numbers today. Tony is now ahead by 1,672 votes.

Do you know how many ab's were counted?

Let's talk about updates....

So what happened to right-wing "Stevarino" Franks blog here on the Star pages??

I liked tweaking them from time to time...

Let's talk about updates....

So what happened to right-wing "Stevarino" Franks blog here on the Star pages??

I liked tweaking them from time to time...

So, are we ready to call this a day yet?

"Moon Doggie, Cap-Random 3-letters/numbers, Lupy, or whatever else you choose to call yourself"
Now that the latest updates show Tony the Tiger's lead growing to almost 2,000 more votes than Taxin-Jackson what have you got to say for yourself ?
From what I hear it looks like all that "close-comradrare" you had with Peter Foy in the Sheep Dip Tank didn't help you out in this race. Better Luck next time-and remember Loyalty in the Long Run is Better than Betrayal in the Short Run.

Ventura County reported results from an additional 11,238 votes in the 19th Assembly District today. Tony's percentage of this latest batch climbed to 55.04% (compared to 52.32% for all the previous ballots), netting him an additional 1,132 votes to add to yesterday's lead of 540.

Santa Barbara County reported results from an additional 560 votes in the 19th Assembly District today. Tony's percentage of this latest batch dropped to 40.0% (compared to 44.76% for all the previous ballots), reducing his lead by 112 votes.

Combining the above two numbers, Tony's lead now stands at 1,560. That's in line with the extrapolations I made in an earlier comment thread.

Given the paucity of ballots remaining in Santa Barbara, and the still-substantial number left in Ventura County, the counting has reached the point where even a radical shift towards HBJ in the provisional ballots won't be enough to flip the outcome.

My conclusion is that the contest is over: Tony has won.

Based on the latest results it looks like Barbara Williamson is the second best Moose dresser in the city of Simi Valley, --right behind Stevarino Sojka.
Any truth to the rumor that Lou Pandolfi has agreed to serve as Treasurer of Williamson for Mayor 2010 Campaign ?
From what I hear developer contributions in bundles greater than $1,000.00 might be funneled from Runkle Canyon and Horse Ranch Developer and "Bab's close friend" Gary Gorian via Mike Osborne and Dean Kunicki into the Williamson account.
After all, Gary, Dean, Mike, and Bab's have all proven that they are "Republicans for Ethical Government".

I deleted a comment about a subject that degenerates into trash talk and name calling too frequently here.

If you have a serious question about it, then email someone.

PARKE,
YOU WERE APTLY NAMED CUZZ THE TAXIN-JACKSON CAMPAIGN THAT YOU MANAGED IS STUCK IN THE MUD, GET IT PARKED.
WHAT U ALL GOING DO WITH ALL THEM DEMOCRATIC DOLLARS THAT MISTERS PARATA AND STIENBERG GAVE YOU AND YOU DONE DISSIPATED DEM.
HOW ABOUT MAKING A CONTRIBUTION TO ELTON FOR VP?

DW - well you didn't respond to my e-mail but in checking the right-wing blog - flashreport.org - I see that you do post on it so my question was answered.

I know you are a big TS fan, but as the article in today's paper cautioned - wait for all the provisionals to be counted. Both side agree that HBJ will make up most of the deficit.

I am of the camp that neither candidate has a mandate to continue with their partisan ways and some significant behavior modification is in order. Ventura County under went some significant change with this last election - finally.

Betrayal takes many forms. Cutting off your nose to spite your face is not loyal.

Katie Teague: I don't think anyone agreed that HBJ will "make up MOST of the deficit" at least from what I read. Frankly with 41,000 absentees left to count in Ventura it looks like Strickland will be up by over 3,000 votes going into provisionals and I'm sure both sides "would agree" that that deficit cannot be made up.

Katie--Sorry, but I did not see any mail from you, so I don't know what your question was. And my opinion regarding the outcome of the 19th AD race is independent of my opinion of the contestants. (However, in the interest of full disclosure, I do know and like Tony personally. But we also have several political differences, since he's a conservative Republican and I'm a Libertarian.)

As I said yesterday, I'm now calling the race for Tony. The trend is pretty certain at this point, and his lead is too large, for even a radical shift in the provisional ballots to overcome it.

CamDem - From Timm Herdt's article

"The race remains too close to call, however, as both camps agree that Jackson will at least close the gap once the counting of about 15,000 provisional ballots begins."

DW - I asked if you posted on flashreport. I noticed your post today so my question was answered. I wrote to the e-mail on your blog - maybe it isn't working.

Over the last 7 or 8 days I have noticed that the HBJ mice have gone after Jim Dantona for not helping HBJ more in order to win the Senate Race. If Dantona's support was so important to win maybe HBJ should have let Dantona run for Seante and we Democrats would now have a Democratic Senator. I'd say it's simply sour grapes by the HBJ camp.

I think there is a big rat pretending to be mice and Republicans pretending to be Democrats.

Jim Dantona and his CAMPAIGN TEAM showed a lack of character by not supporting HBJ. They put their egos over what's best for America. Jim Dantona Incorporated may have hurt HBJ but they hurt themselves even more. Between the loss of all HBJ voters, egomaniac campaign team, and his checks from Waste Management he sure makes it hard for himself.

Please Cap/Loupy, what are you smoking ?

AKA Cosa Nostra. If Jim is the Don then who are all the other members and what role do they play?

Another batch from Ventura County reported today, padding Tony's victory margin to 2,027 votes. I expect it to grow further; the final margin could easily exceed 3,000.

All the attorneys on both sides have now become irrelevant. The gap is too large for any legal challenges of questionable absentee or provisional ballots to effect the outcome.

Are you saying Dantona is currently working for WM in Simi Valley?

ND/Gerard, come on what's the real reason you are part of the Dantona's La Familia? You can't hoestly tell me you think Dantona is a good candidate. You and him are so different like night and day. Does he have the goods on you?

T-cubed:

Since you are so certain you know who I am, (which you don't) then you should already know the answer to your own puerile, provocative and pejorative questions.

On the other hand, since you like to play cyber-games, I’ll indulge you. Regarding your first question, if I really think Dantona is a good candidate? Well T-boy, that depends on the race, and the choices, doesn’t it?

For example, better than HBJ and TS, certainly yes. If the choice was between Ted Kennedy, Dantona and Joe Lieberman, well poor Teddy and Jimmy would lose in my book. Better than Sarah Palin – yes, but not Geraldine Ferraro! And finally, if the match-up was Putin, Dantona, and Walesa, well old Lech would win hands-down.

Regarding your other comments and questions. Pray tell, what Medusa-like, serpentine gyrations go on in that brain-stem of yours masquerading as a simple mind, is known only to God...

Do you have hundreds of picture cut-outs, dog-eared excerpts from blog-postings, and hand-written IP addresses on little yellow sticky-notes, all tied together with pieces of multi-colored yarn, posted on the walls of your six-car garage on your hill-top mansion in Simi Valley?

Shades of “Beautiful-Mind.� But then again, maniacal fascination with labyrinthal, black- operations seems to run in your family. Careful, though, if you go too far, the Department of Justice may be called-upon to investigate familial-CIA connections that may go where you don’t want them to go.

As to your cryptic references to Dantona having goods on me, dream-on, llama-boy. You ought to chill-out, and heed Fred Sanford’s sound advice. “Nothing, from nothing, yields nothing!.�

What is it about the First Amendment (or perhaps all of the first ten amendments found in the Bill of Rights) don't you understand?

NostraDemus

Are you HBJ supporters kidding? Dantona cost you the race? That's hilarious.

Your liberal candidate cost you the race. I am no Dantona supporter, but wow if you think he was that valuable what overtures did you make to him to endorse you? Any?

Didn't he drop out of the race so that the Dems wouldn't have a primary fight? Funny, I am thinking your child cartoon (Harry Potter-esque) mailers might have cost you. Horrible campaign.

Don't worry if you only won by a little in a massive democratic year, imagine how bad she would be beat normally. She would have had 4 years and out.

Enjoy your continued retirement HBJ.

T-cubed:

Since you are so certain you know who I am, (which you don't) then you should already know the answer to your own puerile, provocative and pejorative questions.

On the other hand, since you like to play cyber-games, I’ll indulge you. Regarding your first question, if I really think Dantona is a good candidate? Well T-boy, that depends on the race, and the choices, doesn’t it?

For example, better than HBJ and TS, certainly yes. If the choice was between Ted Kennedy, Dantona and Joe Lieberman, well poor Teddy and Jimmy would lose in my book. Better than Sarah Palin – yes, but not Geraldine Ferraro! And finally, if the match-up was Putin, Dantona, and Walesa, well old Lech would win hands-down.

Regarding your other comments and questions. Pray tell, what Medusa-like, serpentine gyrations go on in that brain-stem of yours masquerading as a simple mind, is known only to God...

Do you have hundreds of picture cut-outs, dog-eared excerpts from blog-postings, and hand-written IP addresses on little yellow sticky-notes, all tied together with pieces of multi-colored yarn, posted on the walls of your six-car garage on your hill-top mansion in Simi Valley?

Shades of “Beautiful-Mind.� But then again, maniacal fascination with labyrinthal, black- operations seems to run in your family. Careful, though, if you go too far, the Department of Justice may be called-upon to investigate familial-CIA connections that may go where you don’t want them to go.

As to your cryptic references to Dantona having goods on me, dream-on, llama-boy. You ought to chill-out, and heed Fred Sanford’s sound advice. “Nothing, from nothing, yields nothing!.�

What is it about the First Amendment (or perhaps all of the first ten amendments found in the Bill of Rights) don't you understand?

NostraDemus

It's hard to believe that anyone could be seriously blaming Jim Dantona for Jackson's defeat, but I suppose he's a convenient scapegoat for those who need to find an outside culprit. Nonetheless, it's pretty ridiculous. Didn't Jim do enough for HBJ by pulling out of the race and thereby avoiding an ugly and extremely expensive primary battle?

Of course there's no way of knowing what "might have been", but my own opinion is that Jim Dantona would have had a better shot at winning this race than Hannah Beth Jackson. Santa Barbara was always Democratic territory, and it would have gone heavily for whoever the Democratic nominee was. Jackson was better known there, but that cut both ways for her. I doubt that Tony would have done significantly better in Santa Barbara against Jim than he did against HBJ.

The real battle was here in Ventura County, especially in the heavily conservative east end. The very liberal "Taxin' Jackson" was an easy punching bag for Tony. Whereas Jim Dantona has long positioned himself as a comparatively conservative Democrat, both fiscally and socially. He'd have been a more elusive target for Tony.

Remember, in 2006 Jim took out incumbent Judy Mikels and almost beat Peter Foy for the 4th Supervisorial District covering Simi Valley and Moorpark. Would Jim still have lost Ventura County and the sliver of Los Angeles against Tony? Yes. Would his margin of defeat have been smaller than HBJ's? Yes. Would that have given Jim a victory in the 19th Assembly District, or just an even tighter contest? I don't know, and we never will know. But if any recriminations are due, they should be coming from Jim Dantona and directed against Jackson, not the other way around.

A big 10-4 on that, Daniel. Hannah-Beth lost because she ran a bad campaign. Simple as that. All these cheerleaders, like GS, Marie, Katie, et al, were so confident this was her year because of the alleged revolt against Republicans. But, that just didn't turn out to be the case.

Her handlers did a poor job, Parke Skelton in particular. NostraDemus actually nailed that point several times.

Daniel:

Based on our respective past blog-posts, I suspect that if you and I ever met for caffeine and politics at Peets, we would have a lively discussion of the issues with many spirited, but hopefully not mean spirited, disagreements on those issues (except for our shared support of the 2nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution).

But regarding your post on the rampant scapegoating going on regarding Jim Dantona being at fault for HBJ's probable loss, I thoroughly agree with your cogent, lucid and fact-based analysis of the likely outcome of the HBJ-TS match-up in 19th SD.

Further, while it is true that past is not always prologue, in this case it is useful, and highly interesting to review the unvarnished truth regarding history of the 2001 redistricting decisions reached in Sacramento, which created the 19th SD.

Timm Herdt's piece in his "95% Accurate" blog-column today tells only a small sliver of the story. Permit me to offer some additional political meat on this redistricting bone.

For all you political junkies out there, query me this. "What do Tom McClintock, John Burton, Tony Strickland, Gill Cedillo, Shelia Kuehl, Jim Brulte, Abel Maldanado, Don Perata, and Darrell Steinberg all have in common?

If you guessed that they all served in the California State Legislature, you'd be right. But again, that's only part of their commonality.

If you guessed that they all, some still currently serving, had a huge political interest in the electoral outcome in the 19th SD, you'd be right again. You're getting warmer.

But it gets more interesting than that. Your final answer?

Well, "BINGO" guess what? All of them, both Democrats and Republicans alike, voted "AYE" on AB 632, the State Legislative Redistricting Bill in 2001, which created the electoral playing field boundaries of the 19th SD for this election!

Remember, at that time, that bill reflected the "Faustian bargin" reached between the Democratic and Republican leaders in the State Legislature to preserve and improve safe-Democratic Congressional and State Legislative seats (a majority of which were held by African-American and Latino Democratic representatives)in the large cities and urban areas at the expense of marginal, competitive, ex-urban seats (the majority of which were held by Anglo Republican representatives).

So, given these cold, hard, demographic, and political facts, does anyone possessing an analytical mind find it so hard to accept the fact that the odds were stacked against HBJ's victory in this district from day-one? And to add insult to injury, neither she, nor then State Senator Jack O'Connell, had sufficient clout with either Hertzberg or Burton, to effect a different outcome!

Further, while it is true that the final votes are not yet counted, it appears to me that your observations regarding the key political-demographic battle-ground being in the conservative-leaning precincts of East Ventura County, versus the historically leaning Democratic precincts in Santa Barbara County (reinforced by 10,000+ young, student voters registered at UCSB), is dead on.

After all, as it stands know, it appears that TS' victory margin in the three East County cities of Camarillo, Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks alone is virtually equivalent to HBJ's margin over TS in ALL of the Santa Barbara county portion (her home-base) of the 19th SD. Duh!

And frankly, that's were Parke Skelton's victory-predicting voter turnout model, let alone his weak ground strategy (in spite of paid HBJ walkers in Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley), appear to have lost this election, in a huge Democratic year.

Finally, as you have observed above, and as others have observed on numerous blog-posts, scapegoating is the second oldest profession known to man in history.

Nonetheless, it might behoove all those arm-chair scapegoating types who are so quick to blame Jim Dantona unfairly for HBJ's probable, (but not yet certain loss) to Tony Strickland to remind Democratic Legislators Gill Cedillo, Shelia Kuehl, Don Perata, and Darrell Steinberg of the ageless wisdom of Hosea, Chapter VIII, Verse 7, to wit, “..For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind..�
Ciao Commendatori

NostraDemus

The election is not over despite the crowing here. Nobody has acknowledged that HBJ has a 13,354 vote lead in Santa Barbara County (based on her Assembly constituents' knowledge of her record) and Strickland has an 11,300 vote lead in Ventura County. At this point in time, HBJ has defeated TS by 2,000 votes in the combined Ventura and Santa Barbara County voting.

BUT -- Tom McClintock insisted on padding the district that was gerrymandered for his protection with Santa Clarita, which has no connection and no community of interest with Santa Barbara and Ventura. He threatened John Burton and Bob Hertzberg with a lawsuit against the re-districting plan, and they capitulated, resulting in the destruction of the former Jack O'Connell district that had included Santa Barbara County, Ventura, Oxnard, Ojai, Santa Paula and Camarillo. The result? TS may get enough votes from Santa Clarita to offset the 2,000-vote advantage HBJ earned in Ventura in Santa Barbara counties.

The right-wing blabbers can go on and on about HBJ's campaign and Jim Dantona's absence, but the fact of the matter is, HBJ wins the Santa Barbara - Ventura County combine. It's ironic that Santa Clarita may decide Santa Barbara and Ventura's representation in the State Senate... but that will change as a result of Proposition 11.

Don't confuse the kool-aid drinkers with facts.

Yet Another Perspective:

I appreciate your contribution of another perspective regarding the nail-biting counting and reporting of election results in the 19th SD. However, I hope that when you made your comments about crowing and right-winger blabbers, you were not applying them to me. Say it ain’t so, Joe!

To the best of my knowledge, I have consistently stated that the 19th SD election ain't over until the fat lady sings, which hasn't happened yet. If you can provide evidence to the contrary, I'd like to see it.

Nonetheless, your post regarding HBJ's current 2,000 vote lead in the Santa Barbara and Ventura portions of the 19th SD based on Friday's count of late absentee ballots, prompted me to return to the numbers in an effort to discern more about the potential significance of the latest results.

If I understand your thesis correctly, you state that but for TS's 4,200 vote victory margin in the Santa Clarita portion of the 19th SD, (which represents 8% of the voters in the district) HBJ's current 2,000 vote combined victory margin in the Santa Barbara and Ventura County portions (representing the remaining 92% of the total voters in the 19th SD), will ultimately translate into her winning the majority of votes cast for this legislative office. Am I correct?

Permit me to offer some contrarian views, based on a more robust forensic analysis of Friday’s results.

First, the macro-view. As it stands now, district-wide, TS has outperformed ambient Republican Party registration in the 19th SD by 11.90%, compared to HBJ's 11.14%. A small, but statistically significant difference in the grand scheme. But again, there are more votes yet to be counted, albeit most of them in areas likely to be more favorable to TS, by virtue of registration, and vote results reported so far.

Now, let's move to Santa Barbara County, HBJ's home-turf, and which represented about 37% of the 19th SD vote total reported to date. So far, HBJ, has outperformed party registration within her home base by 10.6%. Impressive, performance, but not enough. As Timm Herdt suggested in his 95% Accurate blog entry on the race a little while back.

Now, here's a real shocker, in Santa Barbara County, TS outperformed Republican registration 13.64%, or almost 4% more than HBJ's over-performance versus Democratic registration in her home-turf.

Wow! Looks like a heck of a lot of Reagan cowboys and cowgirls cast ballots this year up in the Santa Ynez Valley! The Sarah Palin effect, perhaps?

Now let's travel further south, to the Ventura County portion of the 19th SD, which represents about 56% of the total votes cast and reported by elections division officials.

Surprisingly, and I suspect uncomfortably for TS, so far in the Ventura County portion of the district, HBJ has outperformed Democratic registration by a slightly greater margin than TS did versus Republican registration. 11.41% for HBJ, compared to 10.93% for TS.

On the other hand, according to Ventura County Elections officials, the largest block of late absentee votes left to be counted in the 19th SD, (approximately 10% of the 326,000 registered voters in the 19th SD) are from Ventura County, where TS currently leads HBJ by 11,300 votes.

Finally, as you correctly state, (and by so doing, support my argument about the odds stacked against HBJ in the race for the 19th SD from the beginning), in the Santa Clarita portion of the district, TS currently leads HBJ by almost 4,200 votes, or by 58 to 42%.

Again, we’ll just have have to wait until all the ballots are counted and reported, including the provisionals, to see the final results. But as each new result gets posted, the extremely slim chances of HBJ pulling this one are reaching the point of statistical impossibility.

As it stands now, she would have to pull in excess of 80% of the provisional votes to do so. Even Parke Skelton, can’t reach down far enough in his expensive magician’s hat and pull out a Democratic rabbit that big.

I’ve been in too many close elections like this one to not feel the anxiety, frustration, and disappointment that strong supporters of both HBJ and TS are feeling at the moment. And it certainly doesn’t help that these results have dribbled-out, and the lead has swung multiple times during the last ten days. It’s got to be like Chinese water torture.

Best of luck to all, and hopefully, this whole thing will be wrapped-up by the end of next week.

Ciao

NostraDemus

Tina, Darling,
Don't you just love to spread the rumors? Since you are talking about me, let ME set the record straight. No, Louis isn't my campaign manager in the 2010 Mayor's race. Bob Swoish is and has been my treasurer for many years. As far as cmapaign contritutions are concerned, Gary Gorian gave me the legal limit, as have all of my contributors, but then you already know that, don't you?
Pity you're so out of touch.

NostraDemus, that was an excellent and cogent description of the "Faustian Bargain" made during the last redistricting battle. I will give the Republicans this much credit: Over the years they have generally pushed for some kind of independent body to perform the redistricting, or failing that to have the courts do it. Part of that was based on principle, but most of it was because they knew they'd be screwed by the Democratic-dominated state legislature.

Following the 2000 census the Republicans threatened to take the redistricting issue to the courts. This gave them a little bit (but not a huge amount) of leverage, and enabled them to cut a deal with the Democrats which gave Republicans more safe seats than if the Democrats had gone all-out to maximize their numbers in the legislature. Instead of the Democrats designing districts which offered them an edge but not an overwhelming advantage, both parties opted for heavy incumbent protection. This made virtually every Assembly and State Senate seat non-competitive.

Now that Prop 11 has passed, I'm hopeful that we'll get significantly less gerrymandered districts. It's outrageous that politicians can custom-design their own districts, effectively eviscerating the voters' ability to effect the general election outcomes. Unfortunately, Prop 11 doesn't touch Congressional districts. Maybe a future initiative can extend it to our "Representatives".

Yet another perspective -- Complaining about the fact that SD 19 was gerrymandered to be a Republican district doesn't change the facts. It is still weighted towards Republicans, even though the demographics have been changing this past decade. Something very unusual would have to happen for a Democrat to win, and it didn't happen this time. Both HBJ and Tony had strong name recognition in their own geographical bases, they had comparable credentials, comparable strengths and weaknesses, and they spent (enormous) comparable sums of money.

The unsurprising result is another Republican victory. The provisional ballots are not going to provide a miraculous turnaround, but if you want to cling to that slender thread of hope, be my guest. I do share your hope that Prop 11 will create more competitive districts.