( This mailer from Hannah-Beth Jackson was sent in by a reader. During this entire campaign season I have posted almost every mailer sent in by my readers. Thanks for your input! If you don't see much from your favorite candidate, that is because people were sending it in! To see many of the mailers from the candidates for the 19th state senate district go to the archives.)
The most expensive campaign in Ventura County history is almost over.
There is a final Get Out The Vote Drive ( GOTV ) across the district.
Contact your local office or just show up to help. Both sides will have things you could help with all day. The Hannah-Beth Jackson campaign has firefighters helping out in Simi Valley.
I left the Jackson campaign office in Simi Valley past 9PM and people were still working.
What do you think is going to happen tomorrow night?
Put your predictions in the following format:
Hannah-Beth Jackson/Tony Strickland wins by ______%.
There are prizes. But they aren't worth much.
HBJ wins by 3 points.
Tony Strickland by 2%.
Remember, we are in Ventura County, where registration in the district is in Strickland's favor, so it may seem as if he will win because of name recognition and perceived incumbency. But in the overall 19th the registration is Democratic, with a huge block of Undeclared/DTS voters - the swing vote. HBJ in a squeaker by 2 points.
Tony Strickland by 6%
Tony Strickland by 6%
Photo finish, with a week's worth of ballot challenges before the race is called.
Strickland will win by as much as 5 points.
The 5 point and six point lead are more like it - I'm waiting for the 10 point "insider" poll prediction that we have been hearing about ad naseum.
Katie, who was pushing the 10-point victory prediction? I assume they were picking Strickland?
Jackson's been running an excellent campaign, her supporters are motivated. That, coupled with higher democratic voter registration and the bad press Strickland's been getting equals a tight win for Hannah Beth.
Jackson's been running an excellent campaign, her supporters are motivated. That, coupled with higher democratic voter registration and the bad press Strickland's been getting equals a tight win for Hannah Beth(2%)
Jackson's been running an excellent campaign, her supporters are motivated. That, coupled with higher democratic voter registration and the bad press Strickland's been getting equals a tight win for Hannah Beth.
Hannah Beth wins by 2%
Jackson's been running an excellent campaign, her supporters are motivated. That, coupled with higher democratic voter registration and the bad press Strickland's been getting equals a tight win for Hannah Beth.
Hannah Beth wins by 2%
50-50, last I heard. This one's gonna go on for a while.
The majority of HBJ base is counted from Santa Barbara County and the City of Ventura. Very little of the returns are in from Simi, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks or Santa Clarita.
I don't think she has enough of a lead to withstand the conservative avalanche that is about to come down around her head from that area. She hasn't ridden enough of Obama's wave, even in SB. Yes on 8 is winning in Ventura county, even without the most conservative areas being counted yet. I think Tony takes this race by a few thousand.
As of 5AM, HBJ has a less than 110 vote lead, with most precincts mostly counted. There are still some ballots to be tallied and provisional ballots to be dealt with. It will be very close.
I'm happy to say that as of 8PM last night the Knolls precinct (Knolls, Box Canyon & Lake Manor)had a virtual 100% voter turnout, as I'm sure many others experienced in this most historic and exciting election.
Good work everyone. Best wishes to all candidates.
The Ventura County Star says that TS has a 4 point lead, the State results say the following.
State Senate - District 19
Districtwide
100.0% ( 744 of 744 ) precincts partially
or fully reporting as of Nov. 5, 2008, at 6:02 a.m.
Visit our County Reporting Status page to determine if a county has submitted a final report or returns. State Senate District 19 100.0% ( 744 of 744 ) precincts
reporting as of Nov. 5, 2008, at 6:02 a.m.
Districtwide Results
Candidate Votes Percent
Hannah-Beth Jackson (Dem) 153,106 50.1%
Tony Strickland (Rep) 152,998 49.9%
There is no incumbent in this race.
Katie or someone else that might know-
How many late absentee ballots are out there? I heard upwards of 40,000 could that be true? If that is true doesn't that heavily favor Strickland. I went to bed with HBJ up by 6000 and woke up to this. Thanks
Let's hope that there are more provisional ballots from UCSB students that will vote for HBJ.
It's a nailbiter. HBJ +108
DW-
Typically the absentees go more for the Stricklands. They have been very good at the absentee voter chase in the past. So we will see if HBJ watched and learned or if Strickland will prevail.
We may not know for a week or two.
I've heard Santa Barbara has a number of absentee ballots and provisional ballots outstanding as well.
As Leslie said - who is better at the chase? There was an onslaught of East County votes during the night which brought them back up to neck and neck levels.
My guess is that the provisionals will break for HBJ but who knows. I think the AB will be a wash.
I spoke to Schmit this morning and there's still a ton of east Ventura County and west L.A. late absentees that need to be tallied. Bodes well for Tony, I think.
Regardless of which candidate wins, I think the message is pretty clear that people are sick and tired of the partisanship. Both TS and HBJ spend a FORTUNE telling the county how they really weren't partisan and now it is time to start acting like it.
The right-wing conservatives took a major hit both locally and nationally. Wake up and smell the coffee. It isn't a matter of not being "conservative" enough or being a "true" republican. Even McClintock is in a squeaker in a very safe district.
Time to move foward and start making thing happen.
Hey Katie..
I am dying to know!! WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR?!?!?!
Dear God please tell me you voted for HBJ!!!
goblondie,
You hit that nail on the head.
I can just hear that conversation this morning:
"County Elections, this is Phil Schmit."
"Uh, hello - this is Mongo. How's it goin'?"
"Mongo - stop calling me - I'm busy counting votes! Who are you really, anyway?"
"gopblondie, I mean, Mongo Flamo, uh, I forget."
"You sound like Mike Gibson. Anyway, gotta get to it. Call me in a week or two."
I can just hear that conversation this morning:
"County Elections, this is Phil Schmit."
"Uh, hello - this is Mongo. How's it goin'?"
"Mongo - stop calling me - I'm busy counting votes! Who are you really, anyway?"
"gopblondie, I mean, Mongo Flamo, uh, I forget."
"You sound like Mike Gibson. Anyway, gotta get to it. Call me in a week or two."
I can just hear that conversation this morning:
"County Elections, this is Phil Schmit."
"Uh, hello - this is Mongo. How's it goin'?"
"Mongo - stop calling me - I'm busy counting votes! Who are you really, anyway?"
"gopblondie, I mean, Mongo Flamo, uh, I forget."
"You sound like Mike Gibson. Anyway, gotta get to it. Call me in a week or two."
GS - you hit it on the head. A Dem leads a popular Rep by a handful of votes and surprise there are still votes to be tallied.
It's not who votes that counts...
It's who counts the votes.
Leslie,
I appreciate your humor. I didn't realize recalcitrant Republicans had any. Do tell though, did you vote for HBJ like your buddy, Katie?
But, seriously folks, I predict a Strickland victory based on where the absentees and provisionals are coming from.
Been there...: It was just a safe guess. I am very concerned about who'll be disqualifying ballots. To have 20% of he ballots tossed out in a precinct that went for one candidate 4-1 creates a big vote swing. If that happens in three or four such precincts around the district precincts the race gets awarded to the loser.
Whoever has the more aggressive ballot count watchers will win the election.