Jim Dantona running for the 24th Congressional District? Gosh, I can't wait for that one. I'm sure it will be good fun.

District Registration as of May 9, 2009:
Democrat 35.83%
Republican 41.82%
Decline to State 17.73%
American Independent 2.6%

Most A.I. thought they were registering as independent, small "i", so I usually factor some of them as DTS, thus bringing the swing independent vote to more like 19%.

The Republicans in the district are largely small government, lower tax voters and will stick to their party in this race - unless it is proved that Gallegly supported the Congressional over-spending when the GOP controlled Congress.

The Dems would need to put up a strong fiscal conservative, social moderate to have a shot at pulling in independent voters and overcoming the registration deficit.

Go Jim!!! It would be nice to finally have a candidate in this race that could run a real campaign and have a decent shot at winning.

Elton is useless, but Dantona is the wrong person.

What about Keith Millhouse?

I hope Jim runs again, I would vote for him! Right now we have no representation in this area considering we have Dumb, Dumber, Dumbest and Dummer Still or better known as Fraudra, Phony Tony, Elton Gagme and Peter Wingnut Foy.

What do you folks think of the interactive map?

It's long past due for Gallegly to retire, he is in his 23rd year as congressman and has done absolutely nothing. I am a former republican now independent and I think Jim Dantona would do a good job as a congressman. I don't agree with him on all issues but he is a man of action and could really help bring some leadership to our district. We need someone to fight for jobs.

Brian,

I'm fairly certain that Jill Martinez has endorsed Tim Allison in this race, and is NOT running. Please contact her to confirm.

As to Leslie's post, the vast majority of Republicans are going to vote for Gallegly anyway, unless they're GOP registered for decades but with Democratic values, but that's a small number.

What matters are the DTS voters, and turning out the newly energized Democrats in the district. Turnout is going to be key here, and it's all going to hinge on Gallegly's opposition to Obama's economic agenda. If Gallegly can be effectively tied to obstructionism against Obama's highly popular agenda, and the Obama Democrats in the district can be turned out to vote, he can be beaten.

Jim Dantona is the right man to help lead us out of these bad times. I hope Jim does run since we have never really had a credible candidate run against Elton. I believe the people of this district want some real common sense leadership.

Brian I live in Wood Ranch and although I am a Republican, I voted for Obama because I don't know what Republicans stand for anymore. They have simply become obstructionist. I can't believe we have Republicans publically saying they hope the President fails. As far as I'm concern that means they hope Americans fail. Sorry I can't support that and I wish Republicans would stop disrespecting our country. I voted for Dantona for supervisor and would like to hear his views.

If Judy Mikels actually ran a campaign she would have beat him. He lost his last election to a insurance salesman. The VCDCC might like him because of the control but what do the voters get?

Give the voters (no matter DTS or otherwise) a viable choice and Elton is gone.

Nobody: I hate to disagree with you but Dantona was the only reason we were able to beat Judy Mikels. Dantona is such an inclusionist that both Tony and Audra Strickland Endorsed him. The only reason they pulled off was beacuse of Mike Osborne threating retribution for supporting him. The republicans only threw Foy in after Dantona had shown he could beat Judy. Get your facts right.

I'm an Independent and I hope Dantona jumps in against Gallegly. Name one thing Gallegly has done other than collect a pay check and a big fat retirement. Dantona in his race for supervisor took positions on the Dump Expansion, doing something about the broken Imigration program that President Bush sold out all Americans on so I say lets get someone in who will work for his money, I think Dantona will.

What did he do that the Stricklands liked? That's the scary part.

Where are my facts wrong. Judy Mikels didn't run a campaign. If she had he would have lost. Judy Mikels could beat Peter Foy too.

IF Dantona wins a primary(definitely not a sure thing), he'd have about a 20% chance of beating 22 year incumbent Gallegly. When he loses, he becomes a "perennial candidate" and is tarnished for future runs. He will have lost the trifecta: county, state and federal offices. I hope he does polling and doesn't let his ego talk him into running when he shouldn't.

However, if Jim ran for the open supervisor seat, he'd have a very good chance of winning. I hope he is smart about this.

David-
Below is the general profile of the independent voter (cut and pasted form another blog I made last week, if it sounds familiar):
2/3 male, more young than old, 2:1 pro choice, leaning libertarian - willing to accept fewer government services in order to pay less taxes, growing in ethnic numbers, wants the border enforced, savvy in electonics and communications, environmentalist.

To appeal to this important swing vote, you need to not only be a social progressive, you need to prove you can limit government. I will guarantee that in the next election, fiscal issues will carry the day, and any candidate in this district that touts spending more money and mor government control to get rid of our problems will lose.

I don't think anyone out there should under estimate Mr. Dantona. Say what you want about Judy Mikels the trifecta or anything else Jim Dantona has proved he is a contender for just about any political race. The Judy Mikels argument is just sour grapes. He was smart enough to see her weakness and I think he may know some things about Elton that we don't know. By the way did Abe Lincoln win his first races, I think not.

I am new to Simi Valley and don't personally know either Mr. Dantona or Mr. Gallegly. I did however have the opportunity to meet Congressman Gallegly at a reception at the Regan Library. I was very unimpressed by him and I think if he has served for 23+years it is time for a change. Nothing he said made me believe he was on top of the national issues.

Elton is holding back dozens of qualified men and women in his own party from having the chance to represent the district. He has convinced himself and his groupees that our national security depends on him and him alone.

I'm glad to see there is real interest in the 24th CD. To be honest with you I voted twice for Elton Gallegly but I won't vote for him again. My reason is because of his opposition to stem cell research. My mother has cancer and stem cell research probably won't save her life but might help future cancer victims.

Peggy,
I agree with you. We have the chance to save millions of lives and people like Elton want to pretend they know best for our loved ones. Enough of Elton lets see some one who really cares.

Who is Tim Allison? Does anyone know anything about him?

It may be time for Elton to retire, but Dantona lacks the character that we need in a Representative. Forget about him losing three out of three elections. Look deeper. We need a representative who can be trusted to represent those who elect him and Dantona's track record suggests otherwise. Let's leave him to be a lobbyist and elect a qualified candidate to replace Gallegly.

The Democrats should help recruit a qualified Republican that's not so extreme to run against Gallegly because a Democrat probably won't win in this district. It'd be smart to work it from both sides.

Jim Dantona is the only one tough enough to make this a real race.

The voters would love an alternative to the Bush model. The old Republican rule will be challenged from within in the 24th District. A sensible candidate who can talk could beat Elton without the VCRCC's help. Now would be a good time for Tennenbaum to run.

There should be debates or the candidate that shows up gets the whole time to speak. No fill ins allowed.

Tanenbaum had his chance. Although he was smart and ten times better than Gallegly, there are others more qualified and better connected in the community than he is.

Tenenbaum had his chance - twice, and never got more than 25% of the vote. I'd say he's had more than his chance.

It's so funny that your poll shows two nobodies from Santa Barbara, Marta Jorgenson and Tim Allison with the most votes. They must have spent all day hitting the button and getting their friends to do it too.

Tim Allison doesn't even live in the district and Marta Jorgenson is probably out in her car right now digging between the seats and under the mats, looking for enough loose change to buy gas so she can come down to Simi Valley to campaign. Who are Marie Picnic and Shawn Stern? Jack O'Connell doesn't live in the district either and wants to run for Governor or will wait for Lois Capps to drop.

No wonder the DCCC is still looking for a viable candidate. If I were Dantona I would say thanks but no thanks. What a circus.

This is quite the comedy show, isn't it? The Dems have proven time after time that they don't have what it takes to win this seat. This election will be no different.

Hilarious I'm not sure your right about a Democrat not able to Win. I would agree with you if there are multiple Democratic candidates in the Primary, however if a good candidate who can raise the money runs by himself I think Elton is OLD NEWS. Just my opinion.

Elton is old news but he has been reelected for doing...nothing...for 2 decades. If he runs - he wins again. The lackluster Republican sheep in this gerrymandered district support him for being a Republican and they ask nothing more of him - just a sure vote for the G-nO-P.

Can any of the Elton fans give me one solid example of legislative leadership that this invisible man has provided? He didn't even have the courage to stand up to Rocketdyne and it was right in his own backyard. Oh yes, he got his name and photo in the paper for saying we should look into it further (more credit due to his staff than him thank you) but when push came to shove - the little man wilted.

I'll vote for Elton John before I ever vote for Elton Gallegly.

2010 is going to be the election that is defined by the employment situation, nationwide.

With official unemployment at almost 10% nationwide and with the broader unemployment figures at about 17% (includes those who have stopped looking for work) I think we'll see more and more news sources focusing on what this all means. For one thing, it means that there'll be no meaningful recovery while a large segment of the American consumer base can't afford to buy lattes, shop for new back-to-school clothes or keep up with their mortgages.

Even more worrisome, the estimate of UNDER-employment (unemployed plus those who can't find full time employment) could be over 25% today...and rising steadily.

As we're exposed more and more to the unemployment and UNDER-employment picture in America, the candidates that leave voters with the impression of addressing our employment problems should have a big edge over those who don't...regardless of party registration.

Yeah right, gs. Keep dreaming.

Hilarious,

Show us where you think GS is wrong. You don't think the economy and jobs will be an issue?

I'm not saying the economy and jobs won't be an issue. What I'm saying is the Democrats won't be able to galvanize enough support for another one of their weak candidates to win this election, that's all.

...and I wasn't suggesting it had to be a Dem that would be the one to resonate with voters on this issue.

Then what exactly were you suggesting? Or do you prefer to keep us in suspense?

24 hours later and Republicans still can't remember one solid example of legislative leadership by professional politician feeding off the public trough Elton Gallegly.

Perhaps President Eisenhower said it best: “If you give me a week, I might think of one.”

Oh - and Hilariass...

Since you missed it, here is what GS clearly stated:

"the candidates that leave voters with the impression of addressing our employment problems should have a big edge over those who don't

...regardless of party registration."

Go Tenenbaum!

Hilarious, I think you were expecting something more partisan from me. Sorry to disappoint you. There's no suspense. Whether Dem or Repub or Indie, whichever candidate is felt to be more in tune with voter's unemployment concerns will win..simple.

I'm guessing that by March 2010, unemployment will be the number one issue for voters. Candidates beware!

Hazel,

I suggest you get back to dusting Mr. B's furniture. You offer very little to the political discourse here.

GS,

Do you actually think a tax and spend liberal Democrat has a better chance of winning over the voters than a Republican? They are the reason our State is in such a financial mess right now. Oh, and by the way, there is very little reason to believe that Mr. Obama's so-called economic stimulus plan is doing anything to revive the economy and create jobs either. The latest unemployment figures bear this out.

One more reason not to put your faith in a Democrat...

Hazel - don't worry about the anti-woman rant of Hilarious. You added much to the political discourse.

GS - both parties are guilty of spending too much - often to buy votes.

So it was a partisan response! Thanks for establishing that.

Here's why CA is in such bad shape:

(1) Arnie ran for governor on a repeal of the decades-old vehicle registration tax. He was successful and removed almost $4B each year from state revenues....a total of $24B as of this fiscal year and an amount equal to the State's deficit.

(2) Arnie supported the lawsuit by Assemblyman Tony Strickland et all, which prevented Gov Davis from entering in to a pact with energy suppliers that would have capped power prices at $70/MW, through 2023. CA now pays over $115/MW...one of the highest prices in the Nation. CA could have been paying the lowest rates in the Nation for the next 14 years.

(3) Every oil-producing state in the nation charges an oil extraction fee. Alaska charges 24% of the value of each barrel pumped. CA charges 0% and Arnie, Tony Strickland and other GOP leaders won't allow the state to charge any extraction fee. If CA charged as much as Alaska, that would add almost 4%B each year to the State's revenues.

(4) While CA Dems offered to cut the budget by $21B, Arnie & state GOP leaders blocked the legislation and instead offered their own budget plan...which added almost $3B to the State's budget, via borrowing against the State's maxed-out credit card.

(5) Since Arnie & his anti-tax goons took power in Sacramento, they've bamboozled voters into adding over $5B per year to the State's debt service obligations. Case in point: the Hi-Speed Rail which will cost over $24B to build (maintenance and operations extra)and require subsidies of about $1000 per passenger trip between LA & SF. The ride would probably save the typical passenger about an hour off the same trip by car. Dems didn't push proposition: Arnie & the Anti-tax crusaders did, as payment to the NY bond underwriters who have been financing their re-elections.

Arnie and GOP obstructionists are DIRECTLY responsible for CA's fiscal failures.

And since you can't carry on a reasonable discussion about CA's problems, why not hold off on the National issues until after you've done some reading.

G.S.
Employment is a lagging indicator of the economy. Employment isn't what's wrong with the economy. You are right though, a politician could really exploit the voter's ignorance on the issue to get votes.

It looks like Marta Jorgensen is going to win this poll. The hilarity continues...

NostraDemus GS:

Molto Bene mi Amici!

In the tradition of the great explorers Columbus and Vespucci, leave it to two Italians to see the 2010 political horizon first, clearly and accurately.

To paraphrase our Rajun-Cajun friend, Jim Carville, the 2010 election, most assuredly will be about "..It’s the Unemployment, stupid!!!.." Particularly in California, the eigth (at least for now) largest economy in the World..

During the last twelve months, the unholy combination of our Girly-Man Governator, and his State Legislative Gang-of-Four (Bass, Blakeslee, Hollingsworth and Steinberg), have fiddled while the State's budget and the entire State economy, crashed and burned around them, as they attended political fund-raising soirees, hosted by their rich, corporate elite, tax-break-benefittin, political-contributtin buddies.

From May of 2008 to May of 2009, California's unemployment rate has jumped from 6.8% to 11.5%. By comparison, California's recent unemployment rate was 2% higher than the 9.4% national rate in May 2009.

Statewide, the May 2009 unemployment figure was reported by EDD as 2,138,000 or some 885,000 more Californians out of work over last May. In Ventura County, more than 41,000 people were reported unemployed in May of 2009, versus 23,000 a year earlier.. (See URL above for the State's EED website)

So much for the "Big Five's" track record of economic stewardship for our Golden State during the last year!!!

Regrettably, since neither Bass nor Steinberg are Democratic leaders in the mold of Willie Brown and David Roberti, their political fumbling in failing to gain two-thirds vote passage of State budget has given our Girly-Man Governator the largest political club to wield for at least the next 45-days, or until they finally pass a fiscally-sound, structurally-balanced, and socially-just budget. Of course, Arnold's ability to wield such a club is a direct result of the voters who passed Proposition 58, and his inherent Executive powers contained in the State Constitution..

But alas, GS you are right. The victors in the 2010 election will be those political candidates, regardless of party, who truly feel the unemployed voter's pain, articulate a bold plan to move them from the unemployment lines to the working paycheck lines, and ultimately gain such voters' confidence and votes, be they Democratic, Republican or DTS To the such victors will belong the political spoils

For reasons of personal character, life-experience, political history, and bold public policy actions taken, Dantona could be just such a candidate in 2010 for the 24th Congressional District..

Ciao Commendatori

NostraDemus

Nobody,

Any Republican that uses a sophmoric excuse like that is going to get trounced. The reason we're in this economic mess is that the Nation's collective spending power has dropped below the minimum necessary to maintain our consumer economy. That drop has been slowly occurring since the late 1970s and fell below the threshold early last year, resulting in a large jump in mortgage defaults, credit failures and shrinking retail sales.

Goldman Sachs can hold all the cash in the world but if it isn't being spent on lattes, new clothes, autos and real estate the recession will never end. In reality, it's the banking crisis that's the lagging indicator, in an economy where jobs have slowly disappeared.

Bravo,
GS and Nostra Demus are right on the money, no pun intented. For that reason I'll take Dantona. Despite what Nobody says he's not afraid to cross party lines if it's in the best interest of Main Street, not Wall Street.

I have to say - every thread on Jim Dantona is a long one! People either love him or hate him.

I am not a fan of bi-polar politics. Radical swings from right to left every few years.

I don't love or hate Dantona. He's a good salesman and the local democratic party leaders are buying it. He's a good schmoozer. Congressman? That will take some convincing.

Dantona would kick some ass in this race, if he wants to run. He's got the connections, can raise money, name ID in the most critical part of the district. They approached him about running in this race. It will be interesting to see the polling data when it comes back from the DCCC.

Looks like the gasless one is leading the poll. Good luck guys, but keep in mind you'll have to take up a collection to fill up her tank to get her to every campaign appearance.

ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!

Hilariass -

I'll gladly dust the furniture if you can't dust the cobwebs off Elton's Congressional record. Political discourse? I asked for ONE example of legislative leadership and you still have provided nothing.

Hating the other party is not a qualification for being elected Congressman. It is only a qualification to be a talk radio host. So please turn off your radio and add to the "political discourse" by providing an example. Voting NO on Democratic bills and YES and Republican bills does not qualify as leadership by either party. It is time someone take down the fading shiny veneer and false facade of Elton Gallegly so concerned Republicans, Democrats and Independents see him for what he is... another sheep not a leader.

Honestly, I don't know if any of the Democratic opponents can provide better and I don't think any of them can win. Aside from Dantona, none of them have the guts to expose Gallegly for the empty suit that he is. I know he is not afraid to mount the kind of attack necessary but this district likes its politics all sugar-coated and homespun.

Hey Hazel the Maid,

How's Mr. B? Do you think Jorgensen can win because most of your fellow bloggers here do, according to the results of the poll.

I think Elton would welcome a challenge from any of these losers, quite frankly. Dantona used up all his political capital in the last Supervisor's election and couldn't even beat a virtual unknown at the time, Peter Foy. Then he backed down from a primary fight with Hannah-Beth Jackson, that he probably could have won for the 37th Senate District seat.

This guy's got nothing left. He will be considered a perennial candidate if he tries for Congress now.

Now, back to dusting with you. I see you've missed the far right corner of the coffee table.

Hazel, any Republican interested in the seat is STRONGLY discouraged. At least 15 people have been "promised" the seat but so far none have had the backbone to go for it (some of them could easily win). The Dems need a strong candidate that is very moderate. Until then, there is going to be no change in the status quo.

Mr. Dantona would seem to me to be a non-starter. He does not seem to have the discernment to recognize that the rule of law must be upheld even when it clashes against the desires of nightclub owners to disturb neighbors at night merely so they may make money. There are some who might have an issue with that. Who knows, they may even vote in this district.

I would be more happy with a candidate who, as a Planning Commmissioner, doesn't want to vote for a developer's proposal just because "the City Council is just going to override us anyway" (a paraphrase, true, but close to the original). I instead prefer my representatives to vote based on principle, passion, and pragmatic policy considerations, and preferably not with one eye towards maintaining power relationships for future political runs. I'm not sure Mr. Dantona fits that qualification.

No, I'm afraid with Mr. Dantona I don't think we are going to get a future "Profile in Courage" award winner, so perhaps we should just move on along.

Mr. Wallace you are very confused...

1. Jim Dantona, Planning Commissioner was 100% CORRECT in his evaluation of our City Council.

2. Jim Dantona, Planning Commissioner proposed NOTHING outside of the "rule of law."

3. Jim Dantona, Planning Commissioner is NOT the Jim Dantona that is discussed here.

Moving along...

Hilariass -

You must be illiterate as once again you failed to read precisely what was stated. My statement for those who can read was this:

"I don't know if any of the Democratic opponents can provide better and I don't think any of them can win."

That includes Jorgenson and the rest. I simply believe Dantona is the only one gutsy enough to call out Elton for what he truly is: a professional leech wearing a public servant's suit and mask. If Elton runs - sadly Elton wins.

More importantly, you and your Elton fans cannot come up with one example of what this recipient of the political welfare system has accomplished to earn his pay, pension and dubious popularity.

But hey - you did come up with all those original Hazel quips. I believe the TV show was last on the air when Elton was first elected.

Ms. Dourif,

Well, ma'am, it appears I owe Mr. Dantona, potential candidate, an apology, which is duly rendered, as I have confused the names. Simple human error, which I trust you may be familiar with. If not, tis a blessing to be sure, and a rare one at that...

In no other respects am I confused (either now or in the future). I stand by my statements about the Planning Commissioner, but that is simply not relevant to this discussion, and I do apologize once again to the elder Mr. Dantona, as well as thank you for your correction.

There is another possibility for this Congressional race.

How about a non-partisan with ties to neither party? How about a candidate who truly represents the residents of Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties? How about someone whose values and priorities are based on the Constitution, common sense and a social conscience?

The people of the 24th Congressional District have clearly become weary and disgusted with both political parties. Until now, political parties were a necessary evil. However, the power and scope of the internet have rendered political parties simply "evil".

Watch for announcements regarding my exploratory committee for the 24th Congressional District seat and the "MAC PAC" (Middle-class American Candidates Political Action Committee).

It is time that a common sense Constitutionalist with a conscience be elected to represent the People of the 24th Congressional District.

If you would like more information you may contact me at EileenMacEnery@gmail.com.

There isn't a need for a "Moderate Homeland". Moderates exist in the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, Green, Independent, ect. A person that stands by and does nothing while their Country tortures people isn't a moderate, conservative, or liberal they are evil or cowards, There isn’t any middle ground with many of our problems.

DTS voters are not moderates. They are all over the place just like any other group. Any new party has to define itself sooner or later. When it does lines are drawn. Those lines will be drawn by the most radical participants in that party. And here we go again.

I dig the map!

If you could keep it updated with campaign events, so readers can check for stuff happening in their neighborhood, that would be great. But I know Google can sometimes be time consuming to work with.

Keep up the excellent work!

George Washington was against Political parties as they did not exist in 1789. Washington despised the idea of political associations, formed in such a way as to pit one group of citizens against another.

Why is it that an Inde can't have a successful bid in the political theater? The major political parties of our country have to count on the independent voter to win. The country has both swung too far to both the right and left for most constitutional-aware Americans. Bill Clinton proved that the country is Centrist and President Obama won the election because of the centrist political stance. This has since been hijacked by the far left and further compounded the far right stance of the Republican and ruining our country with large deficits during their tenure. Now is a time to push for term limits at the National level remembering our founding fathers were part time legislators as is in some U.S. States. There is a need to do away with professional politicians who can't identify with the voters when they come home from the beltway elite, a whole different mentality. During this health care debate they have labeled conservative Democrats, Moderate Republican and Independents. It's time to do away with party labels as they are divisive. Wake up America and vote not for the party but for logic, not 1000 page laws written by lawyers as even the legislators can't understand. I favor health care but couldn't people with precondition health problems be treated as motorist on a Assigned Risk Policy? Incidentally attorneys make up the majority of both houses. The politicians could identify with the voters if they shared the same pain of unemployment, the health care they propose, retirement (one term and they are set for life), walk a mile in the taxpayers/voters shoes. If you share some of these same attitudes let Ed and the various potentials for Gellegly job.