I post unscientific polls for a variety of reasons including to gauge the intensity of support for a candidate. In the election for Clerk-Recorder my poll wasn't widely off from the official election results:
Here is my analysis of why Mark Lunn won:
1. Low Voter Turn Out Among Democratic Voters.
Republicans had two statewide primaries of consequence, the gubernatorial primary and the senate primary. Democrats didn't have tough choices to make nor could they go out to defeat major Republican candidates. Barack Obama won Ventura County but those same voters didn't have as many reasons to show up to support Jerry Brown when he was the only candidate running or to vote in races like Clerk / Recorder.
2. He ran a great campaign.
He was able to get early endorsements from people like former Ventura County Democratic Central Committee Chair Hank Lacayo and other impressive figures. He didn't identify Lacayo as a Democrat on all of his materials but his name does appeal to some people. Mark Lunn was able to attract support from a Democratic Chair and from Tea Party activists that think Barack Obama was born in another country. That is impressive for a candidate running for a nonpartisan seat. I wonder if they asked him if he will be checking birth certificates?
3. Name ID.
Mark Lunn had many more signs across Simi Valley than Jim Dantona did. Signs don't win many elections but in a contest with so little interest from average voters they can be very effective. I wouldn't advise candidates to rely upon them at the expense of other more important tools but they do help.
4. He had a better ballot designation.
Running for a position that many voters cannot properly identify the responsibilities forcs a candidate to either spend money and time explaining the position or as Mark Lunn did effectively work on building trust. His ballot designation lets voters know many people trust him.
5. A weak Ventura County Democratic Central Committee.
The VCDCC didn't draft a candidate early nor did they all rally around Jim Dantona as their candidate. For those committee members that did rally around him they didn't have the same financial resources or organization that the Ventura County Republican Party is able to use to help their candidates. The VCRCC might rely upon toxic interest groups like tobacco companies but they have money to support their candidates.
6. The backgrounds of the candidates.
What I like about Jim Dantona is he is willing to work hard when everything isn't given to him. Other candidates only run for safe positions but Jim Dantona ran against an incumbent supervisor and a powerfully connected Chief of Staff to a supervisor. That said he does have weaknesses that make it harder for him to get his message out. Although he has explained factors that contributed to his bankruptcies they obviously cost him more votes than he gains back from his explanations. And those explanations require resources from the campaign.
7. An early start.
Mark Lunn started his campaign earlier. That allowed him to build up a strong list of people endorsing him before Team Dantona could either ask the same people to endorse him or at least stay neutral. That's a tip for a novice candidate. If you can't get someone to endorse you then you can ask them to stay neutral. It flatters people to think they are so important they could tip an election and it is sometimes less risky than endorsing a candidate.
Both candidates ran strong campaigns and I appreciate them putting their name on the line for us to have a choice. I don't like to vote for a candidate when there is only one choice. I almost always skip voting or write-in a different candidate. I am thankful Jim Dantona gave us a choice.
What are your explanations for the outcome of this election? Which of my observations do you agree with?
For months I have been questioning why Mark Lunn didn't include increasing voter registration and participation in his platform but I am glad to see this in a recent article:
Turnout in Tuesday's primary election was about 27 percent, something he wants to see improved. "I will continue to work to do my best to get people to come to the polls," he said.
Click on continue reading for Mark Lunn's thank you to his supporters.
Dear Friends and Supporters,As you may already know, we were victorious this past Tuesday. With a final count of 52,880 votes, I was elected Ventura County's next Clerk & Recorder!
Click Here to view the election results
I want to extend my sincerest gratitude to everyone who helped in my campaign: the friends and supporters who helped us get the word out, everyone who contributed financially to our victory and most of all the voters who came out on election day to ensure our success.
I want to extend a special thanks to my Campaign Co-Chairs: District Attorney Greg Totten, Former Democratic Party Chair Hank Lacayo, Thousand Oaks City Councilwoman Jaqui Irwin and Oxnard Businessman Armando Lopez.
I want to let you all know that this is not the end, but the beginning. Now comes the hard work of governing, and for me that means going through the Clerk & Recorder's Office fine-toothed comb to ensure that the county's records are managed efficiently and that our elections are consucted (sic) with integrity. I will not let you down.
Again, thank you all for your support, I could not have don't this without you.
Sincerely,
Mark Lunn
Mark Lunn, Ventura County Clerk & Recorder Elect
Campaign SignsOne final note about our campaign signs. Our team is making every effort to have all of our campaign signs picked up from around the county. If you locate a campaign sign that we have missed, please call the campaign at 805-404-7811 or email missy@marklunn.org. Thanks.
Lunn won because:
1. He got a whole bunch of endorsements from well known people.
2. His signs were all over the place***. Like 10X what I saw for Dantona.
3. The turnout was ridiculously low.
4. He played it completely safe in his campaign. Saw very little of him. Dantona showed some personality in his videos.
5. Lunn castigated Dantona as someone who can't manage his own finances (e.g. bankruptcy) and thus should not be elected.
*** Amazingly and shockingly, ON the morning of the primary, I witnessed Lunn signs next to 2 polling places. It is against the rules for signs to be placed within 100 feet of a polling place in the county. His was the ONLY sign that broke this rule, multiple times (at least that I saw). So the person elected to run fair elections broke the election rules. Kind of disheartening.
How about the fact that Dantona is perceived (correctly) as a political insider who works as a political consultant for Democratic candidates for office? In this era of "throw the bums out," he was viewed as another career politician who has run for other offices unsuccessfully and would, no doubt, promote the status quo if elected.
The Democratic Central Committee, being the fractious organization that it is (and will continue to be) couldn't see its way to get behind Dantona's candidacy. This hurt him a lot. Meanwhile, the Republican Central Committee was 100% committed to Lunn, in spirit as well as with its dollars. Dantona's personal financial problems didn't help him either.
Looking at the numbers I am always surprised by Dantona's strengths. Both Foy and Lunn must be very happy that they have the bankruptcy thing to turn to, because based on the numbers being a well known Democrat isn't hurting him in a big way, Republicans must vote across the aisle for him in a pretty substantial way.
In the overall County election numbers Republicans outvoted Democrats by 18,000. As a percentage of the vote Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 12%. And yet Dantona only lost by 9,000 votes and 7%. Dantona closed the party gap in a significant way in this election, just not enough.
If you want to say that the independents and decline-to-states are the ones who made it close for Dantona, that's okay too. In that case, he then got every DTS and Independent vote, making him the only canidate to gain other party supporters. If the DTS had come out to vote in any substantial way (which is an interesting question we should look at - why they stayed home?) Dantona would have won.
Let's be honest and logical about the numbers though, Lunn picked the right time to run, because if the Republicans didn't have such a huge advantage in pure numbers the results may have been different.
I am always amazed at what Dantona accomplishes in the face of a very forceful push against him. No other Democrat in the entire Eastern County has even gotten close to being able to have a D associated with their politics and do so well in elections.
Whether you love him or hate him, you have to tip your hat to his ability to run campaigns.
Behind,
You have overlooked the only reason Dantona ever posts any numbers of consequence.
He calls himself everything but a Democrat!
He uses words like conservative, names like Ronald Reagan, and every other Republican buzz word to make the folks think he's a Republican. Jeez, in his first mailer he used a Reagan Library form donor reply.
It took the VCDCC to link his name with the word Democrat because he sure a hell wasn't going to do it!
Oh, and by the way there is another word that is never linked to a Dantona campaign either,
That word is "Winner!"
The position of County Clerk & Recorder is a non-partisan position involving the administration of elections and records.
This position does not create laws. It is an administrative role. From that standpoint, neither candidate frankly had significant relevant experience.
It concerns me when a candidate for this office espouses support from his/her political party. Why is that necessary for this position? It isn't. It concerns me much more when a candidate for this office cannot follow the rules administered by this office.
Ahhhhh "voter", are you still angry that he knocked your favorite County Supervisor out of her seat and sent her back to her home in Arizona? How did Jim hurt you?
The reason people vote for Jim is because like the rest of us in the middle he has viewpoints that are on both sides of the aisle and a lot of people know that. Now unlike you, I can admit when someone or something that I don't agree with does a good job. The Ventura County Republican Central Committee does a fairly good job at painting Dantona as a leftie - though in all honesty Dantona is probably more right on some issues than you are "voter", but that's politics.
And in the end, Dantona is a better person than you, because he doesn't hide to do his attacks. If he has something to say about his opponents or someone else he does it and puts his name on it. You know what that's called, rectitude. I'll give you a few minutes to go look that up...
Dewey, how is your law firm, Dewey Cheatem & Howe?
For all you guys knocking Dantona I think if you look at the numbers in this race Dantona ran well ahead of the Democratic turn out and only 8% of DTSs voted so you all know he drew alot of Republican votes just as he did in the Supervisor's race. None of you critics have the guts to run for anything so it's easy for you to sit and pretend you know something. Dantona takes on alot of things no matter what the odds. He was the only candidate who took on Waste Mgt. regarding the dump expansion, Judy and Foy are in their hip pockets. Oh yeah and Lunn couldn't take Waste Mgt. money any faster if it were wired to him. I don't always agree with Dantona but I will admit he isn't afraid to put himself out there. Do I think Dantona is a politician, yes do I think Lunn is a politician absolutely. Dantona may not be able to win yet, but that's do to registration. Lunn is a what Dantona said a pension sucking politician hiding behind his fake image.
Who cares that Dantona lost, the real story was that Dear Audra and Mein Osborn had the living hell kicked out of them by Parks and Dean, that was the story!
Who Cares is definitely out of the loop, I hear that Osborn and Dean are friends.
Everyone wants to be/is friends with Geoff Dean - especially now that he won the election. He is a very nice, ethical guy.
The rumor is that they were friends before the election.
Hear that Carpenter, Ron is confirming that Osborn threw you under the bus! Are you still crying for Dear Audra, Ron?
I think it's just a matter of time before Osborn is told to hit the road. He has bungled a few elections in recent times, including Audra Strickland's run for Supervisor. The VCRCC were also implicitly behind Carpenter's candidacy, although they didn't feel comfortable officially endorsing him because Dean is a Republican too.
Yeah, I know, so is Linda Parks, but Dean is a real Republican, not a phony-baloney like Parks.
For being a phony-baloney she sure did whip Dear Audra. Do you think it hurt Dear Audra when the mine owner lent the 100k to Osborn to get Dear Audra elected so that she could be a kind voice on the Board of Sups when his case came up?
If there is indeed a rumor that Osborne was friends with Dean, the it is being created and spread by Osborne. The CC and the Stricklands were behind Carpenter.
No question, the VCRCC and the Stricklands were behind Carpenter all the way. They just couldn't state it publicly.
Who Cares, I don't think the $100K from Tom Staben's partner had any impact on the race. The money was returned (with interest) by the Central Committee, remember?
Osborn is History, I sure hope you're right. Osborn has been playing nanny to the Stricklands for far too long now. You'd think someone with some integrity (maybe a Neal Andrews) would stand up at one of the meetings and nominate someone else to be Chair. That Committee must be getting pretty tired of Osborn blowing hot air in their faces every month.
Osborn will be unanimously re-elected, you heard it here first.
One thing about Andrews though, he did have the integrity to run from Katie and her pretend organization.
Yeah, you're probably right, but one can always hope. There are quite a few sheep in that organization right now and, unfortunately, Osborn is an effective shepherd.
My sense is that Andrews is not real happy about how things are going there, but he's only one vote. However, I've seen him make some principled/against-the-grain stands as Ventura City Councilman, so I haven't lost all hope in him.
Oh, so you think the Strickland employees will re-elect the Strickland hatchet man? That's a no-brainer. And Andrews will do whatever is best for Andrews - he has no scruples.
comment2,