I predict Ferial Masry will go down yet again - big time. She is completely out of touch with the constituents in the 37th District.

She's in favor of establishing a state bank? What the hell? Just what we need, the government getting its sticky fingers into the banking industry. This just proves how far out of touch this three-time loser is.

Gorell -60%
Masry - 40%

You heard it here first!

Eric,

The two things managing attorneys don't like are an attorney whose only experience is working in the public sector (like the D.A.'s office) and/or a lawyer who moves firms every two to three years. Two to three years is how long it takes for a case to be handled to closure and for a managing attorney to realize Jeff's a big loser. That alone makes me think he's not a good candidate. Add to that he's Audra Strickland's hand picked replacement and he's sold his ass to a Texas offshore drilling company?

He might even loose worse than Audra Strickland if there is such a thing.

Smooth operating Jeff is scary. I checked donations and was wondering if $55 k of your own money was a lot for a state assembly race.

http://www.electiontrack.com/lookup.php?committee=1305314

There Art goes with the conspiracy theories again. Art, quick, take a look in your closet, there's a little green man in there who's been assigned by the FBI to monitor your brain waves.

Wow....you are quite pathetic. Brian has asked you to stop attacking me but it seems you can't do it. Very immature.

BTW, what theory was I insinuating? I asked a genuine question out of curiosity and you attacked me with yet another adhominem attack. You use the same tactics over, and over and over.

Get a life.

Oh, pipe down, Art. You open yourself up to a lot of the comments here. I agree that Nut Job should lay off a little, but you're taking yourself way too seriously. Learn to laugh a little. :-)

Oil Well, you're way off base. Jeff's an extremely capable attorney and a great person. He's committed to the betterment of this District and will do a great job as our next Assemblyman.

Masry hasn't done much except promote herself as a successful woman from Saudi Arabia. That's all she talks about in her campaign and in the book she's desperately trying to promote.

It'll be a 60-40 finish in Gorell's favor (could be even better). He's definitely the better person for this job.

Hello Art! Never been introduced but I'm doing some research for a possible film about jack Sarfatti and wondered if you knew much about him.

Gary

MT, do you work for Jeff?

GS, I had not heard of Sarfatti until you mentioned him.

Nobody has answered my original question though...is $55k of your own money a lot in a state assembly race?

If Jeff supports NutMeg Whitman for Gov. (I don't know for sure but am assuming he does) we know he is another liberal hiding in conservative clothing.

Remember this one, trying to use Tea Party Momentum on Tax Day:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8tSm0vQnmc

I am a Republican and it seems to me that Gorell will say whatever it takes to get elected. I really don't feel I can trust him and most likely won't be voting for him. The fact that he has placed his signs up so early (some on public property) doesn't entice me to vote for him either. I wish the Republican Party would do a better job of recruiting candidates.

Nah, I don't work for Jeff, Art. I'm just a real Republican who is supporting the obviously superior candidate in this race.

As for Jeff Gorell supporting Meg Whitman, I can't say for sure, but I would suspect he does. I can't imagine him supporting "Retread" Jerry Brown. By the way, that race could be another 60-40 result.

Brian I respectfully request that "Nutmeg Whitman" be considered for comment of the week.

Oil Well Gorell,

It's always kind of amusing to me when commenters think an anonymous poster is me. I'm not the only Republican or conservative in Ventura County, you know.

I think it's adorable how you're still humble. Do you think it's because you young? I hope not I find it very charming. You're not a bad looking kid either.

Do you ever think you might look back ten years from now and think, "I could have took over the VCRCC and made it into something people were proud of ten years ago for my Country"?

The VCRCC leadership is out there operating without any decent restraint, totally beyond the pale of any acceptable human conduct. And they are still in the field commanding volunteers.

Eric, in politics, things get confused out there. Power, ideals, the old morality, and practical human necessity. But out there with these casinos, insurance, tobbacco, offshore drilling companies from Texas it must be a temptation to be God. Because there's a conflict in every human heart, between the rational and irration, between good and evil. And good does not always triumph. Sometimes, the dark side overcomes what Lincoln called the better angels of our nature.

Call Linda Parks; assemble a team, and save the Republican party in Ventura County.

Oil Well-

Did you see the number of donations to Gorell by Indian Casinos?

Maybe he won that money playing keno.

Brian-

Nobody has been able to answer my question.

Is $55k of your own money a lot to spend in a state assembly race? Do you know?

I heard NutMeg Whitman on John and Ken , they called her that during a live interview with her on their show.

Any amount is too much to spend if it's your own money. If you can't cover your race through third party supporters it may be an indication you shouldn't be running. That said, depending whether or not you're the challenger, whether or not there's a large pool of volunteers available to you and whether or not there are three key local issues you can run on, $55K is likely a fraction of what it would cost to mount an effective campaign.

Then, there's always the Law Of Diminishing Returns to contend with.

So, why are you crying to Brian, Art, you loon? Why don't you do some research on your own and enlighten us all? Nah, you'd probably just come up with another conspiracy theory.

You just had to just throw "conspiracy theory" out there again. Gee I never heard that one before. I trust conspiracy facts, not silly theories. There is a huge difference.

You only managed to call me one name though. That's better than others on this liberal blog.

I ask Brian for some info because this is his blog. He seems to be somewhat of an expert on local politics. That makes me a loon?

I do not follow politics closely anymore. There is no point. Politicians are corrupt, the system is irreparable. The lesser of two evils will always be a lose-lose for the common man. You argue differently?

There is so much disconnect between the working man and the politicians. They work for the political elite who do not give a shit about any single one of us. Trying to fix the problem, from within the political system, is like trying to hit a Major League fastball with a toothpick.

It will never happen!

People will continue flocking to the polls and voting for self serving politicians marketing "change" or "hope" only to go back on each campaign promise. Putting their trust in a scumbag and continuing to hate their common man neighbor because one is a Democrat and the other a Republican.

Divisive issues like, party loyalty, abortion, gay marriage and religion will always keep the serfs in their place and the 1% elite on the top.....

You're too pessimistic, Art. There is a chance for America if we stop falling for the fools running for office.

Barack Obama was a huge mistake. I think most people (including a lot of Democrats) are able to recognize this now. His star has been rapidly falling since the euphoria wore off a few months after he took office and the effects of the strong Kool-Aid people had been drinking dissipated.

Many of us could see this train wreck coming, however. He had virtually no experience in national politics before being elected President and certainly no executive level experience. He is clearly more comfortable lecturing to a crowd, just like the law school professor he is, than running the extremely complex business of the federal government.

He is definitely going to be a one-termer. Can't wait for 2012!

Art,

It would be more than my after tax take home pay so yes if you ask me that is a large number. That said it doesn't sound unusual for a candidate to spend that much of their own money in a state assembly race. I have seen much more in legislative races.

Thanks for ignoring the trolls.

MT-

It's not just Obama, and if you think it is you are drinking the kool-aid.

Anyone running for president on the republican ticket in 2012 is a puppet as well.

As long as we live by the two party system we will be "falling for the fools running for office."

They are all self serving fools whose allegiance rarely lies with their constituents.

Thanks for your 2 cents Brian....

As a rule I don't post on blogs, but I've just heard too many bad raps on politicians like the one Art just made.

They are NOT all alike. They ARE all human beings with the same feelings and egos that we all have, and if we treat them the way we want them to treat us much will go better.

With that said my real purpose in writing today is to take on the myth that Art (no offense to Art, there are many who feel the same way) is carrying forward that;

"There is so much disconnect between the working man and the politicians. They work for the political elite who do not give a shit about any single one of us."

I can dispel this myth, and any corollary thereof, with a single word,

BIKERS

Those who truly know me will understand the reference, for those who don't I have a history lesson.

20 years ago the bikers (motorcyclists) of California decided that no one was paying attention to them and they started to organize. One of the little known secrets was that at no time did their numbers in any Assembly district number more than 100 and that was unusual, most local groups were around 20-30. What they did was work. They worked for candidates they believed in and a funny thing happened, they got noticed. They were not paid goons carrying signs who showed up when ordered to to threaten and disrupt, they rode up on their motorcycles and quietly got to work doing the unglamorous things that are so necessary to any campaign. To this day a group of bikers from San Diego still holds a record for the most phone calls ever made in a three hour period. In one special election their candidate won by 28 votes, less that their membership in the district. This woman became a very powerful legislator and remains one. She chaired both the Assembly and Senate Budget Committees and remains their friend and supports their issues to this day. And, oh yea, she is a Democrat. Even though they are best friends with almost 100% of the Republicans they support a number of Democrats.

The point of this post is to tell you that one person can make a difference, but you don't do it by disengaging and then whining about it. You do it by getting involved and working for someone you believe in. Trust me, it always works, it worked in the past and it works today. Remember, even if you disagree with one policy or another you'll never get a chance to change a mind if you don't get in the door. And I don't know about you, but if I was considering who I'd rather spend my time with I'd certainly put a friend in front of an enemy.

You have two choices when it comes to politics. You can be a participant or a victim there is no middle ground. You can try to make things happen or you can let things happen to you.

It's your choice.

By the way should anyone doubt I am who I say I am, Brian and I speak every so often. He can email or call me and I will gladly lay claim to this post.

Mike Osborn

There's nothing wrong with the politics of America that can't be solved by the Voters. Ergo, the problem with American politics ARE the Voters. Until they stop being distracted by the shiny baubles and angry voices, the Voters will continue to be our biggest problem.

A perfect example in CA alone: Voters approved a $55B+ high speed train that can never pay for itself, during a time when the state is withering on the fiscal vine.

This is how Mike Osborn changes minds. And he "works" for the Stricklands. Today's Flashreport. Click on the URL for the complete story.

.....Most painful for delegates was the performance (or lack thereof) by Rules Committee Chairman Mike Osborn as he presided over the Committee report presentation to the full convention. This excerpt from a CRP member who wrote to me afterward is pretty straight forward:

The rule bending and running of the vote by Osborn was so ridiculous that twice he had to be spelled at the gavel, once by [Counsel] Chuck Bell, the other time by Nehring. Osborn’s misreading of a rule (he interpreted “notwithstanding” to mean the exact opposite of its meaning), in addition to failing to explain to the body that the rule in question had been approved before it was unapproved were both terrible. He constantly injected his own opinions and exhibited bias for or against speakers, depending on whether they agreed with his point of view (in one case with a full testimonial). Osborn’s conduct left everyone on both sides of the debate feeling like it was amateur hour, not the floor of the State Republican Party convention. And this guy wants to be CRP Treasurer? Good God.

Thus from some remote location, Kevin McCarthy on his cell-phone set into motion events that ended up wasting probably five hundred collective hours of delegate time. It was not McCarthy’s finest hour.

Of course, the most unfortunate part of all of this is that these actions really sent a wrong message from the party to the thousands of young activists that are just trying to come back together into one organization. For my part, as a party officer, I extend my apologies. I’m embarrassed for the actions that took place.

The ball of flames when he leaves is kind of kool.

He has a long history of secret meetings. This is to Mike Osborn from a Central COmmittee member who is no longer representing his district.

"Mike:

You’re wrong and that’s all there is about it. The matter will be resolved by the bylaws committee. Further, I love how you pretend to be a lawyer, a pretty bad one at that. The fact is that the bylaws do not state that the captions are for information only. Thus, the provision includes the caption and states in it’s entirety:

§8.05 Meetings of Committees and Caucuses. Meetings of all standing and working committees shall be called by the Chairman of the Committee or the sub committee chairman. Notice of scheduled meetings shall be given to all members of the committee. (Emphasis added.)

The fact is that when it comes to the Central Committee, you are in it for your own political benefit. Ego and power, and mean spirited to boot. At some point you’ll get what’s coming to you. You certainly do not have the well being of the party in mind when you act.

II guess your just not man enough to have a meeting where everyone is present. You have to hide behind a couple of women and an illegal meeting to get what you want. You’re pathetic and everyone knows it.

Grow up and be a man."

Mike-

Self serving politicians were not listening to the bikers so they used the system to their advantage. They played the game to get what they wanted.

This works at the local level, not so much on a bigger stage. The Whitmans, Pelosis, Obamas, Bushes and Clintons of this world do not care about you. That's where the disconnect really is.

The country is in flames. There is so much going on around us. Do you really have faith in the government to help you out?

In the event of a giant earthquake, and California absolutely broke, do we really think it will be Obama to the rescue? I don't think so.

Barbara Bush said the people moved into the Superdome after Katrina five years ago "were better off."

The common man is on his own. If we keep fighting our neighbors over party loyalty we are are doomed.

Oh, Katie, my dear. Have you ever attended a Democrat Party convention? Complete chaos. If this is the best you can do by honing in on a little snafu at the CRP convention (one attendee's viewpoint, mind you), you're definitely not seeing the forest for the trees.

Katie,

You truly need to get a life. Osborn comes to the blog with a fairly cool story about voiceless people finding a way to be heard, and a message that one person can make a difference.

You then respond to what is a great message (no matter who brings it) by going after Osborn with your,what we have come to expect, normal vitriol and some anonymous hit piece by some disgruntled convention goer.

You are well and truly disturbed.

And a snip from a mutlipage diatribe from an ABATE member in 1996 regarding the motorcycle law - dated in the mid-90's. It is indeed amazing what one person can do if he lies.

.....The secret board meeting in December held at Peter Daniels' house (and the only board members who were invited were Mike Osborn, John Paliwoda, Nancy Nemececk, Bill Bish, Peter Daniels and Kathy Theodore) has been the pinched nerve in my neck. The Executive Director, of course, wasn't invited because it was to discuss changing the by-laws (euphemistically called a 'restructuring proposal' . . . do you really believe this stuff?) that would put all the authority and political activities into the PAC Chairman's position. Gee, I wonder why Paul, Leroy, Carol Brown, NY Mike and Red Barron weren't invited to that meeting? The result was a fax vote that came on January 1st and was supposed to be voted on within 3 days. Very unskillful, at best, and, at worst, very deceptive. Either way, very unprofessional....
.....Many of us don't trust Osborn or his ability to lead. I for one believe that 'cutting the deal' is more important to him that the ABATE agenda or the membership.

Another buncha crap from Katie. She's been disgruntled for years and has recently defected to the Democrat Party from what I've heard. Zero credibility.

Get help, Katie!

Get help fast!

Get help NOW!!!

"The common man is on his own. If we keep fighting our neighbors over party loyalty we are are doomed."

You all are proving my point.

Oh, quit your whining, Art. Get active and do something to make the political process better, if you don't like it.

Stay off your telescope too. You might see a spaceship landing in someone's backyard.

MT,

Can you please start addressing Art's arguments instead of repeating the same old personal attacks on him?

I did respond to his arguments. He's basically throwing his hands in the air and saying that's the way the political system is and that's the way it's always going to be, and I said - rather than complaining about it, do something about it.

While I have never given Masry much of a chance in the past in this assembly district, she may receive a boost from an unexpected source this year: the Republican Party.

It has to do with the fact that all political parties - especially at long last the GOP - are finally showing they appreciate the fact that women in this state are important voters and selecting some women to run for key seats in major statewide office. With a total of 18 women on the ballot for governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, controller, state treasurer, state insurance commissioner and U.S. Senate in November, this could be the first real chance to change the government gender imbalance of power in California. I think there is the very good possibility that it will bring out a higher turnout of women - and this will help Masry. If she targets Republican, DTS and other women voters with an effective message (as well as her Democratic base), she stands a good chance of gaining victory. Whether the parties admit it or not, women - regardless of party - have real differences on their positions on some of the issues.

My guess: Unless one or the other of the two major candidates creates some major faux pas, it should be a very close race.

You think Republicans are going to support her? Not a chance, Godwin. I agree with MT. She'll be lucky to get 40% of the vote.

My point: if Masry is smart she can pull enough non-Democratic women to make it a close race and possibly win.

I have worked in six campaigns and all the real research that I have seen in those showed that women - regardless of party - do have a different political point of view than men in the same party. Especially dealing with issues of the workplace (equal pay, sexual harassment, benefits, etc.) healthcare (reproductive rights, family leave, etc.) and education (class size, charter schools, child care, etc.), there were significant statistical differences between women in a particular party or DTS and ideological leaning - conservative, liberal or moderate - and men who identified themselves the same way.

Moreover, the gender card is important. Consider that Republican Candidates Fiorina (for U.S. Senate) and Whitman (Governor) have little in common in their respective campaigns. The former is trying to present herself - rather unconvincingly - as an upscale version of Sara Palin in her campaign style and ideological positions. The latter is ideologically a female version of the current governor, but with mega bucks instead of instant name recognition as her trump card in the race. Republicans are counting on women to vote for both of them regardless of positions, personality and style. They could be right. Women and the issues they find most important - are underrepresented in elected offices.

Masry and her handlers might be smart enough to exploit that in the closing days, but time will tell. Gorrell - on the other hand - belongs to two groups with disproportionately overwhelming representation: men and lawyers.

Harold, you're completely diregarding their respective experience in your focus on woman vs. man in this campaign. Gorell is head and shoulders above Masry in terms of what he's actually done in his life and career that qualifies him for this office.

The numbers may not be enough to make a difference but women ARE indeed taking a second look at what's happening and some are going to vote against the GOP.

Case in point: we socialize regularly with a group that includes two staunch County GOP activist couples. Though the husbands are determined to secure GOP gains both wives have made it clear that they don't like what's happening to their family and friends (crowded classrooms, foreclosures, inability of their kids to pay rising college tuitions, etc)and that they will be voting AGAINST all but one or two local Repubs in November...both of them moderates. Statewide, both those wives say they'll be voting FOR Brown specifically because they each have children in school.

So...if these two couples are any indication, we may see a lot of vote cancellations in many GOP households in November.

GS, your basing your predictions on an over-the-fence conversation you had with a couple of friends? I think I'll stick with the national voting trends vs. what Ma and Pa Kettle tell me. Those trends clearly show an advantage for Republicans in the November election.

We'll see how that translates to the voting patterns in California, but one thing seems very clear to me - Jerry Brown doesn't stand a chance. I haven't heard a single television or radio ad on his candidacy yet and Meg Whitman's ads are on every time you turn around. I guess he's carrying his "smaller is better" mantra into his campaign for Governor.

(1) I never made a prediction and (2) sans benefit of ads and spending, Brown's basically tied with Whitman and, as the next two months unfold, I can guarantee you that Brown's PR machine will outperform Lying Meg Whitman's feeble attempts to create a state leader out of duck tape and staples. Brown by 3 pts...and that's a prediction.

Again, I'll stick with the voting trend data and call it Meg's race to lose at this point. Provided nothing big breaks before November, I predict Meg will win by 10 points. Now that's a prediction!

Jeff Gorell is only getting into politics because he doesn't know what else to do. He's trying to cash in the same way the Stricklands and that midget Elton have done for years.

The same people who figured out Audra Strickland have figured out Jeff Gorell and want no part of him.

Ventura County is tired of these VCRCC weasels Republican. The voters said it during the supervisor campaign and they will say it again with Oil Well Gorell.

Wrong again, Nobody. Jeff Gorell is a lot less controversial than the Stricklands. He doesn't have that strong affiliation like other candidates have. I think you're right, to a certain extent, about the Stricklands. People in the County have caught on to their game, including many Republicans. That's why Audra went down so hard in the Supervisor race.

Jeff Gorell doesn't carry that baggage around with him. Again, I predict:

Gorell - 60%
Masry - 40%

"a lot less controversial than the Stricklands"

Jeff Gorell isn't "as controversial" because he hasn't had a chance yet, but thank you for acknowledging he is controversial.

Jeff Gorell sold his soul to a texas offshore drilling company. He can't stay at one law firm for over a couple years. Everyone who hears he is Audra Strickland's "carry on" won't vote for him. In true VCRCC form you are gambling on the voters ignorance and the hope that the voters don't do their homework. That's worked in the past but that was before The Dennert Age.

Election update:

Gorell - 62%
Masry - 38%

Good call, FC. It could be even more of a shellacking based on recent polling results.

Received a robo-call from her campaign today. Fighting corporate greed and providing for better education which is double speak for anti-business and pro big government spending. Wouldn't state her party affiliation in the robo-call. Hmmmm? Looked it up and found this page. Democrat. What a surprise.