I agree with Ventura County Star Reporter Timm Herdt that Simi Valley politics will be much more interesting because of redistricting.
There is a State Assembly race that involves two influential Republicans from Santa Clarita. Scott Wilk and Patricia McKeon both have support from Republican Party activists. The district leans Republican but I expect moderate Democrat Edward Headington to make the top two.
Republicans don't have a declared candidate for the State Senate seat yet but many people think Cameron Smyth will declare soon. Democrats have incumbent State Senator Fran Pavley running and she will be campaigning in Simi Valley soon.
A small part of Simi Valley is in the Ventura based Congressional district that has many strong candidates running for it including Steve Bennett, Tony Strickland, David cruz Thayne, David Pollock, and Linda Parks.
The House seat that includes Simi Valley and Santa Clarita so far has incumbent Republican Howard "Buck" McKeon running for it and a new challenger Dr. Lee Rogers. A major issue in that campaign has been the Countrywide VIP loan program that Rep. Buck McKeon allegedly benefited from. Buck McKeon has denied all wrongdoing.
All of this brings me to Simi Valley City Council Member Glen Becerra. When Rep. Elton Gallegly announced his retirement he was quoted as saying:
Simi Valley City Councilman Glen Becerra said he also will take a serious look at entering the race. "This seat looks like it was designed for a Hispanic Republican," he said. Becerra, like Gallegly, lives in Simi Valley, outside of the district lines, but said that makes little difference. "I was born and raised in Ventura County, and this is a Ventura County district," he said.
I wonder if Glen Becerra might consider running for any one of these positions.
I doubt he would run against Tony Strickland. Tony Strickland has quickly united the Republican Party behind him.
Buck McKeon will be weakened from attacks on paying his wife to run work on his campaigns and benefiting from the Countrywide VIP Home Loan program. The attacks on Patricia McKeon from her opponents will hurt Buck McKeon. Could Glen Becerra be tempted to run for what is considered a safe Republican seat because of the growing charges against Buck McKeon and Patricia McKeon from their opponents?
State Senate 27th District:
If Cameron Smyth runs I don't think Glen Becerra would challenge him. Smyth hasn't declared his intentions. I assumed he was going to run but I am not so sure. Cameron Smyth is holding a fundraiser for State Assembly candidate Scott Wilk. That might be a sign that he isn't worried about upsetting special interest groups that are supporting Patricia McKeon. Now that it looks like State Senator Fran Pavley will be the only Democrat running Republicans will consider that challenging her is going to tougher. Fran Pavely is popular with Democratic activists and she has the ability to raise money. She has represented much of the area and was a popular teacher in Moorpark.
Assembly District 38:
If Glen Becerra ran for the State Assembly seat he could have had a decent chance. With the two Santa Clarita based Republicans dividing support from that area he could have joined the Democrat in the top two based on his base of support in Simi Valley. He has already endorsed Scott Wilk though so that would be pretty surprising. Claiming the endorsement of your opponent would make a great mailer. He isn't going to run against Scott Wilk.
Glen Becerra has won four elections to the Simi Valley City Council, including his first when he beat a more conservative incumbent.
The deadline to file is in March. He might not see opportunities like this again for a long time.