After Newsweek published a rare cover story criticizing
President Obama, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman sprang into action and
criticized both the author, Niall Ferguson, and the publication over the story's
claim that Obamacare is not deficit neutral.
"We're
not talking about ideology or even economic analysis here -- just a plain
misrepresentation of the facts, with an august publication letting itself be
used to misinform readers. The Times would require an abject correction if
something like that slipped through. Will Newsweek?"
Krugman pointed to the CBO analysis that said the Affordable
Care Act would reduce the deficit as the final word on the matter. However, the
CBO tends to optimistically assume revenue streams that will in reality never
materialize. For example, the CBO estimates that $107 billion will be raised
from "changes in taxable compensation and penalty payments," which I take to
mean the new tax on Cadillac insurance plans. When taxes are calculated, there
is a tendency to underestimate human response to increased taxation, which is
avoidance. If there are x current Cadillac plans, and the tax rate is y, the
government's revenue will be x times y. There, it raised a hundred billion
dollars on paper. However, if Cadillac plans are going to get taxed at 30%,
guess what--the real life response is that people are going to drop those plans
or find some other way to avoid that tax and the government will never see that
money.
The CBO can't accurately quantify how people will avoid the
tax, but common sense tells us they will. Niall Ferguson apparently understood
that, and for his recognition that the CBO estimates aren't the final word on
the matter, he was smeared as unethical.
Now, let's put aside that fact that Paul Krugman, the
Pulitzer-Prize winning Princeton economics professor, can't understand the
concept that taxes affect people's behavior. For the sake of argument, we'll
say that the CBO is the final word on the matter and Ferguson is dead
wrong. Should Krugman be the one casting
stones about the "misrepresentation of facts with an august publication letting
itself be used to misinform readers." Remember, he said the Times "would
require an abject correction if something like that slipped through."
Would it?
Krugman's most recent column in the august New York Times
seems to show that he himself misleads readers.
In it, he criticizes Paul Ryan's budget as "a con game."
On
the tax side, Mr. Ryan proposes big cuts in tax rates on top income brackets
and corporations. He has tried to dodge the normal process in which tax
proposals are "scored" by independent auditors, but the nonpartisan
Tax Policy Center has done the math, and the revenue loss from these cuts comes
to $4.3 trillion over the next decade.
While Krugman assumes rosy revenue projections by ignoring
real human responses to tax increases, he also is eager to assume big drops in
revenue from tax decreases. It shouldn't take someone like me to teach him
something about economics, but when tax rates decrease, economic activity can
increase resulting in more tax revenue. If
we thought like Krugman, a business that offers a one-day 20% storewide sale
will have 20% less revenue that day than they would have without the sale. To
him, a lower price means lower revenues and lower taxes mean lower revenues. To
people with common sense, however, lower prices could mean higher revenues, and
so can lower taxes.
But that's beside the
point. It's not unethical for Krugman to be wrong about economics, even though
that's what he's immersed in.
The unethical part is how he
described the "nonpartisan" Tax Policy Center. That group is a joint venture of
the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institute.
The Urban Institute is a "leading
liberal think tank," according to the Los
Angeles Times, and Krugman's own
employer calls the Brookings Institute "liberal."
Did Krugman lie? Not technically--both
groups call themselves nonpartisan, which makes it easier to pretend it's true.
But Krugman's standard for Ferguson wasn't that he out-and-out lied, it was that
he misled readers. That's exactly what Krugman did when he tried to pass off an
ideologically biased group as an objective one during his criticism of Ryan's
plan. And he did it in the august New York Times.
So not only is Krugman wrong
about economic principles, he unfairly accused Ferguson of being unethical simply
for disagreeing with the CBO estimates. Furthermore, Krugman himself really did
mislead readers when he tried to cloak a biased group as an objective one in
his latest column.