Mitt Romney's campaign was ecstatic to hear Rick Perry
double-down
on his criticism of Social Security at Wednesday's GOP debate at the Reagan
Library in Simi Valley.
"You
cannot keep the status quo in place and call it anything other than a Ponzi
scheme," Perry said at a Republican debate in California. Acknowledging
that several have called his remarks controversial, he added, "Maybe it's
time to have some provocative language in this country."
Perry called Social Security a Ponzi scheme in his "Fed Up!"
book, and his enemies in the Bush camp have zeroed in on the language.
Most
recently, Republican strategist Karl Rove said Perry's take on Social Security
will prove "toxic" in the 2012 election. Former Vice President Dick
Cheney also said recently it was inaccurate to call the program a Ponzi scheme.
In Simi Valley, Perry said that Chenye's characterization
was "just a lie," and Rove was "over the top." Romney seized the moment.
"Our nominee has to be someone who isn't committed to abolishing
Social Security but to saving Social Security," Romney said.
What are the characteristics of a Ponzi scheme, and who is
telling the truth?
According to the Securities and Exchange Commission, a Poniz
scheme "is an investment fraud that involves the payment of purported returns
to existing investors from funds contributed by new investors."
Score one for Perry.
Basically, early investors are lured by guaranteed returns
that are paid mainly through money derived from new investors, not from actual
profit. Typically the scheme promises huge profits in a short amount of time,
then collapses when money from new investors isn't sufficient to keep the
scheme going.
Social Security shares the same basic characteristics as a
Ponzi scheme--it requires more and more new workers to pay for the
ever-increasing number of retirees. As
the Baby Boomer generation retires, the number of workers that have to
contribute to Social Security to pay for them is proving to be insufficient. Economist
Arnold Kling said the following:
The
government gives people money, which it expects to obtain by taking the money
from people in the future. Even the Center on Budget Policy and Priorities, not
known as a right-wing organization, sees the U.S. fiscal stance as
unsustainable (pointer from Ezra Klein via Tyler Cowen)--in other words, a Ponzi
scheme.
Business Week agreed about the fundamental parallels between
Social Security and the Ponzi scheme:
Social
Security taxes current workers to pay Social Security benefits for current
retirees. In other words, the new entrants into the Social Security system, the
young workers, pay off the previous entrants, the older workers. And despite
the fact you have a Social Security "account", there is no necessary link
between what you paid into the system in taxes, and what you receive.
That's
very similar to the structure of a Ponzi scheme, where new investors pay off
the original investors. As long as enough new 'victims' are brought into the
scheme, it keeps growing and growing. But when the new investors runs out, the
Ponzi collapses. Analogously, the slowdown in population growth puts pressure
on Social Security finances.
Business Week also noted that there is one thing that can
keep Social Security from being a Ponzi scheme--technological innovation that
leads to increased worker productivity.
If we leave the younger generation a good legacy--a sound scientific and
technological base, combined with an innovative and flexible economy and an
educated workforce--then Social Security is not a Ponzi scheme. The economy
grows, and there's more than enough resources for everyone.
But if instead we--the current generation--invest in homes, flat-screen
televisions and SUVs, then we don't leave the next generation with the
technological "seed corn" they need. If the technological progress slows, then
Social Security does turn out to be Ponzi-like--with unfortunate consequences
for everyone.
Guess which path we're headed down. Give another point to
Rick Perry.
From the Progressive side of the spectrum, the arguments
against Social Security being a Ponzi scheme get laughable.
Mother Jones writes that because Social Security is not deliberately fraudulent,
it is not fraud. Also, governments can print money and raise taxes to keep the
scheme from collapsing, and it's been around for a long time, unlike typical
Ponzi schemes.
But none of that changes the fact that it requires an
ever-increasing number of new victims to keep it afloat. Even if the government
devalues the dollar to meet debt obligations such as Social Security (which it
is doing), a large portion of the investors get screwed in the end by being
paid in worthless currency.
In the final analysis, Rick Perry is right. Social Security
is fundamentally the same as a Ponzi scheme. While it shares some superficial differences
from being run by the government, those differences don't change the nature of
what it is.