Why would a leader in education try to change this? Education is a service, not a business. Should government agencies really try to take on more costs? Imagine if firefighters were complaining that they didn't have enough fires!

If my school district was recruiting students from outside the district, I would be upset as a taxpayer.

So what if an area is not growing. The only thing that grows for the sake of growing is cancer. Is it possilble that Ojai can ever stop? Should their goal be to increase population? Why can't the free market figure out housing prices without people like Tim Keaney trying to drive down prices, increase population, and make local taxpayers spend more money?

I know that you might want growth for economic reasons, but big cities always have higher taxes. Why do you want to make Ojai like Simi Valley? The economy of Ojai is doing just fine without huge malls, freeways, traffic jams, gangs, overcrowded houses catching fire, and all the other things that pass as fun in Simi Valley.

Uh, thank you for your comments, Mr. Secretary! My how you have recovered from the duel to live to blog about it!

I'll bet you a ten-spot this isn't this clown's real name!

Anyway, while you and I may have different positions on the role of the federal government in our society (though it really has turned out your way, hasn't it?), I take issue with your assesment of my objectives, and I don't accept your premise.

Mr. Secretary, how do my questions make you believe that I advocate for higher populations, lower home prices and the like? If Ojai is happy with their situation, then why is their superintendant concerned about closing schools?

If superintendant Weis wants afforable housing, then shouldn't he work with local governments to make it happen?

I bring up the discussion because of the Star article, and the effect it will have on local schools. I am blogging, not advocating one way or another...

Thanks for your contributions to the founding of our nation. Next time you see Aaron Burr - DUCK!

Tim

Okay, I misread you.

So, are you worried about declining population of students?

Next, are you worried that the government wants to somehow regulate or "deal" with this problem?

I will await your reply before I finish you off!

While I wait, please remind yourself I was defending America from a traitor when he shot me.

Federalist 4 life

Big Guv Al,

Sounds like you misread me, just like you mis-read Jefferson...

I have not taken a position or stance on any of these issues. I am trying to push a discussion forward.

What are your thoughts on enrollments shrinking in Ventura county?

Tim

Obviously, school officials get money based on growing enrollments ADA, but do declining enrollments mean that there declining amounts of children in the area.

It may just mean with the types of homes coming in families are opting for private schools...

What do you think?

Scott

According to the Star, and Urban Planning expert Bill Fulton:

Ventura County's population continues to rise because births continue to exceed deaths. However, "net migration" -- the number of people arriving from other counties, states and countries -- plummeted to 4,807 in 2003, a 30 percent drop from 6,884 the previous year. A year earlier, it was 8,956.

Figures released in January reinforce the trend. Net migration in 2004 was 4,337, and despite the annual uptick in population, 82 more people left the county than arrived.

Some people have moved to Riverside, San Bernardino and Kern counties, where mortgages are cheaper than Ventura County rents. Yet others, who bought homes before real estate prices shot upward, cashed out their equity and moved out of state, where the cost of living is more reasonable.

---

Yes, it's possible and probable that more kids are going to private and/or charter schools (whose ranks are exploding) but it's also more likely that families are moving out, and singles and DINKS (dual income/no kids) are moving in. Families could be moving out of apartments and condos and buying homes in Bakersfield and the Inland Empire.

Tim

Of course, higher price housing leads to smaller families and older students. We have seen this in Simi Valley. Even LAUSD is seeing lower enrollment.

This is not a bad thing. School administrators get upset at shrinking enrollment, but its because they don't really understand the economics of the problem. In a state with limited resources, lower student populations should mean higher per student funding. Lower student populations should mean a lower demand for teachers, for which a shortage is brewing. Lower student populations should decrease the demand for new schools, allowing us to maintain the existing building better.

School districts seem to forget the good impacts of lower student populations, and focus on the bad. It does require some effort to manage the staff to match the student population, and it disrupts staffing some, but it can be beneficial.

The bigger problem is the high cost of housing does make it more difficult for people to live close to work. That problem is felt by all of the employers, and certainly needs to be addressed. Its a subject for a different question.

Greg:

In policy terms, should a district be pleased with increasing or declining numbers or neither?

In Simi, Santa Susana High School attracts students from all over the region. Would you say this has hindered or enhanced the school district overall objectives?

Scott

Greg,

It sounds to me like another rationale could be this:

If enrollment drops, but tax revenue stays the same or increases, then theoretically, the amount of money paid to districts per student then increases? Do I have that right?

So when enrollment drops, but not the population of taxpayers, that potentially increases district revenue. At the same time, if assessed values of homes increase, that's more in property taxes.

If fewer staff are needed, and fewer schools are needed, but potentially funding stays flat, could that mean increased programs or "value add" for those that remain?

How does the state look at and determine the funding amount. For example, if Ojai is losing students, when does the state recognize this loss and change it's ADA funding? Is it based on last year's attendance? if it is, you would think that districts that shrink from year to year would have more money than they need, as the numbers are inflated.

I'd like to know more about these theories and real world application.

Tim

I believe we need more affordable housing projects in Simi and in Ventura County. I have said so in public. Declining enrollment is a major problem for school districts. You cannot cut expenses at the same rate the state takes away funding, kids don't come in nice packages in terms of classes. The state currently allows a district to use the previous years ADA in case of a drop. Half of the districts in California are in declining enrollment. I wish I shared Greg's view that the state would increase funding per student if there is an overall drop, but I don't. I also don't think it is healthy for communities to not have young families with young children moving in. It also does not make sense that we close schools in places like Santa Barbara and then float bonds to build schools in Temecula, etc. It is a poor use of resources.

I have sent a Letter to the Editor regarding Dr. Weis’ conclusion that lower enrollment is driven by rising housing prices. We need to see the data that brings him to this conclusion. Blaming high housing prices seems to let the superintendent and staff off the hook for the lower enrollment. By the way, enrollment in Ventura County is down ½ of 1%, not exactly earth-shattering. It certainly does not indicate a trend.

As far as ADA from the state, when enrollment declines from the prior year, the state gives that district the same amount of money as the year before the decline, so it would appear that the district would have more $/student. Maybe Greg Stratton can clarity this bit of information.

I wonder if we'll find accurate enrollment attendance numbers as elusive as "per pupil funding" statistics or worse, Developer fee usage.

Anyway - I would imagine that the County Superintendant of Schools would have these numbers, district by district for say the past 5 years. The county provides financial, operational, instructional and logistical support to local districts and should have accurate attendance and enrollment figures.

I think until we have that, we're dealing with nothing more than anecdotal evidence.

Tim

The following was submitted via e-mail today at 4:35 pm:

Dear Dr. Weis:

My name is Tim Keaney, and I am the publisher of the "No Issues Left Behind"
blog on the Ventura County Star. Every day, my readers (some of the best and brightest educational leaders and commentators in Ventura County) debate and discuss regional, state and national educational issues. My goal is to create a dialogue where we can share concerns and get answers to some of the greatest challenges facing schools today.

Recently, the Star ran an article on declining enrollment and the effects afordable housing has on school enrollment. I would like to ask you a few questions regarding this subject, and I am hopeful you will answer in order to shed some light on this issue and the problems (or positives) posed by this decline.

Specifically:

Do you have District By District enrollment figures for Ventura County Districts for the past 5 years?

What was County-wide enrollment in September, 2000 and what is it now?

What districts have seen the numbers go down, and what districts have seen increases, and by what percentages?

What districts have the highest number of Inter-District transfers in and out, and what are those numbers? What's the primary reason given or an inter-district transfer?

If the State education budget goes up, but attendance in a Ventura County District goes down, doesn't that mean that there is more money to cover fewer students?

If enrollment goes up more than projected, does that not also hurt school districts by requiring more teachers, support staff and facilities?

I know these are a lot of questions, but I would appreciate your response and involvement in our discussion. If you'd like to visit and read the blog, I would appreciate that. We can be found at the following link:

http://blogs.venturacountystar.com/vcs/keaney/

Thanks in advance for your time.

Sincerely,

Tim Keaney
No Issues Left Behind Blog

If shrinking districts get larger per pupil funding, wouldn't this mean shrinking rural area school districts have the most funds for kids?

If this is true, wouldn't it be in the interest of mid to large school districts to shrink their jurisdictions to get more funding per pupil?

I don't think this is the case, but need to do some research to see if this is true.

Scott

County of Ventura

Enrollment

92-93
117,978

2000-01
139,808

2003-04
145,316

Teachers

92-93
4,653

00-01
6,436

03-04
6,447

Notice that the enrollment population went up by 5,508 in the county of Ventura from 2000 to 2004 while the teacher population only went up by 11.

Interesting...

Source: http://www.ed-data.k12.ca.us/welcome.asp

From a quick analysis of the data from the county...

Teacher/pupil ratio

92-93
25.36

00-01
21.72

03-04
22.54

Seems like teacher/pupil ratio is still way down compared to when I was in school based on the numbers in Ventura County.

Some interesting data there. As those of you know, those who have read my rantings, the most important statistic I was interested in when my kids went to high school was "grads with UC/CSU required courses". Ten years ago in Simi the % was ~30%, last year was ~20%.

Food for thought for those that are interested in this particular statistic.

Turns out that the high point for Simi high school grads with the right courses for UC/CSU entrance was 98-99 with 43% meeting the standard. Must have been the year that Keaney was in high school.

Sorry...only if they included Chatsworth High graduates in the sampling...

Very Interesting Numbers.

Tim

Jerre
I guess they closed all those schools in Santa Barbara just for the heck of it, not because of declining enrollment. Also your right that housing prices should not stop young families, I mean can't two people working at Wal Mart for $8 an hour afford a new million dollar home in Big Sky? Of course they can, can't they? Speaking of Wal Mart I saw that Arnold gave a veto to a bill that would have made Wal Mart report how many of their workers are getting public assistance, two hours later Arnold got a check from Wal Mart for $250,000. Of course Arnold said there was no connection. You guys would have been all over Gray Davis like a cheap suit on Tom Delay, if he had done this. Speaking of Delay, what time is his booking tomorrow? I see his bail will be $10,000. I think it should be $10 million as he may be a flight risk. Tim, it was nice seeing you at Roger's service yesterday, Roger truly was a nice man.

Simi Valley is down 26 students, not a major hit, but a change from the estimates a few years ago of 200+ per year growth. We are also seeing an age shift to older students. The crisis of 6 years ago that predicted we would need to open all the closed elementory schools is past - least for a while. We now have a secondary school problem.

These changes require management. Closing a school, or even adjusting a boundary is painful, but necessary. The state gives you a year at the old attendance, because the state budget is too late to affect this years staffing. We are constantly adjusting to keep our schools at an optimal size. Small adjustments are always better.

Yes, people with kids moving to Temecula vice SB is not the best use of facilities, but I've grown attached to free enterprise.

If rapidly growing disticts with overcrowding is bad, then shouldn't shrinking be good? Rhetorical question, but the real answer is that we need to plan to accommodate what we think is coming. Its the big swings that upset the planning.

Greg

Greg,

It sounds like SVUSD has a problem that might be tricky. With BOND funds allocated to specific projects, is there a plan in place to re-prioritize those funds now to alleviate the issues at the middle and high schools?

If the funds existed or could be acquired, one or two of the closed schools could be opened as K-8, which would alleviate some of the middle school crowding. High schools pose their own set of problems, but I am sure you are going to have to consider year-round, or tracks because of the lack of land for a high school (though I LOVE having a Borders book store in town!)

Will this planning be under the purview of the bond committee, or will there be a new facilities committee?

Middle school in particular is critical, because it's a huge transitional time for youth, and many complain they get lost in the process. Overcrowding simply makes it worse, and potentially puts more of them at risk.

Readers? Suggestions please!

Tim Keaney

Arleigh:

I don’t know how many schools they have closed in Santa Barbara. I don’t have the facts for this. Perhaps you can provide the facts. What I do know, with facts, is that the enrollment in SB county schools has increase ~10,000 over the last 10 years. It’s been pretty flat for the last three years.

And I do not know if housing prices cause declining enrollment because I don’t have the facts here either. I simply asked Dr. Weis to substantiate his thought that high housing prices are the cause of declining enrollment.

There are a lot of opinions on this blog, which is OK, but I always try to show the data. When I don’t have the data, I ask. Because maybe someone reading the blog does have the data and is willing to share it.

As usual you guys duck the tough questions like Arnold and Wal Mart. No guts, no glory.

Arleigh,

Did I miss a question of yours? I have guts, and I'm sure you think I want the glory! Let me know what I missed.

What IS missing are facts backing up the original story. We have not heard back from Dr. Weis yet, whose facts could be helpful in our discussion.

Perhaps your accusation of "ducking" should be pointed at Camarillo, instead of here.

Tim

Tim,
My question was. Last week Arnold vetoed a bill that would have made Wal Mart say how many of their workers are on public assistance (tax dollars). Arnold vetoed and two hours later he received a check for $250,000 from Wal Mart. If Gray Davis had done that you guys would have been on him like a pit bull on a poodle. How do you feel about Arnold doing this? Also what about Arnold snubbing the President? It seems ironic that Arnold was mad that W. was taking a million bucks from the special interests he wanted money for, like two rabid dogs fighting over a bone.

Gray Davis was indeed a poodle. No question. I saw him speak once, and the pit bulls guarding him made him look like a poodle in one of those dress up dog costumes - but I digress..

Why does Wal-Mart have to provide that kind of data, when other employers don't? Wal-Mart is a publicly traded company. If it's stock-holders (btw, MANY public retirement and pension funds hold it's stock) don't like the way it trains and pays it's employees, then they need to talk with their wallets. Instead of laws aimed at one company, Wal-Mart opponents need to pull an apartheid move - Get the pension funds to sell the stock - depress the stock until Wal-Mart does what they want. If the anti-wal crowd is right, it should be a slam dunk.

I don't expect that to happen though, because WAY to many seniors, union members and other stockholders' retirements and 401K's hold the stock - hurting Wal-Mart stockholders hurts more than the Walton family nowadays.

I don't shop there - I am not a fan. But that is a personal choice. I prefer to buy my chips and other junk food in places that are less annoying to shop at.

But I don't think we need special laws just for Wal-Mart - do we?

As for Arnold - well, I have been pretty candid in this blog about "Arnold's advisors". When the president of the United States comes to town, you meet with him. Even if it's to publicly disagree with him, or even to advocate. You meet with the President, you go to the Reagan Library and you speak truth to power.

That's my opinion, which I am sure differs from many.

Tim

MORE ON WAL-MART -

From the Wall Street Journal:

Wal-Mart Urges
Congress to Raise
Minimum Wage

By ANN ZIMMERMAN
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
October 25, 2005

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Chief Executive Lee Scott, whose company has become synonymous with low prices and, critics say, low pay, called on Congress to consider raising the minimum wage.

In a speech to Wal-Mart directors and executives, Mr. Scott unveiled a series of initiatives designed to present a kinder, gentler face for the world's biggest retailer, which has come under stepped-up criticism for everything from its wages and benefits to its impact on small businesses.

Mr. Scott also discussed a new health-care package with lower premiums for Wal-Mart workers, and he touted the retailer's efforts to cut pollution.

Whether it is jobs, health care, product sourcing or environmental impact, "it is clear to me that in order to build a 21st century company, we need to view these same issues in a different light," Mr. Scott said in his speech yesterday. He added that he has spent the better part of last year exploring ways to use the company's heft and resources to have a more positive impact on society.

The proposal to lift minimum wage is particularly likely to raise eyebrows. Though Wal-Mart pays above the current $5.15 an hour minimum wage -- the average hourly wage among its 1.3 million U.S. workers is just under $10 an hour -- some of its smaller competitors don't pay as much. As a result, a boost in the minimum wage could pressure the profitability of Wal-Mart competitors.

"This makes it look like they're doing something for labor, but with little cost to themselves," says Lawrence Katz, professor of economics at Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass.

But Mr. Scott, noting that minimum wage hasn't changed in almost a decade, described Wal-Mart's core customer base as finding it increasingly difficult to afford basic necessities between paychecks.

"We simply believe it is time for Congress to take a look at the minimum wage and other legislation that can help working families," he said.

Mr. Scott delivered his speech on the eve of the company's annual two-day conference for analysts at its Bentonville, Ark., headquarters. Analysts likely will want to know how the company plans to achieve some of these goals while containing costs and jump-starting sales.

In energy-saving moves that will save Wal-Mart money, Mr. Scott said the company plans to increase the fuel efficiency of its truck fleet -- among the largest in the country -- by 25% in the next three years. It also will invest a total of $500 million annually exploring technological advances to reduce greenhouse gases 20% during the next seven years and sharing its findings with others, including competitors.

In addition, Wal-Mart said it will show preference to factories in China that participate in a "green company program" it is helping to design and to suppliers who address their own contribution to global warming.

"Wal-Mart now sees the need to raise environmental standards and that is promising, but will they adapt tough voluntary standards and press suppliers to do the same?" said Fred Krupp, president of the New York-based Environmental Defense, a large environmental group active in global-warming issues.

Mr. Krupp added: "If they do, it could be very big."

Critics also have taken Wal-Mart to task for its health benefits; less than half its workers are enrolled in a company-offered health plan, partially because of the cost of the premiums.

Mr. Scott elaborated on a new health-plan option for financially strapped workers. It costs approximately $23 a month for an individual, about $17 less than the cheapest previous plan. But workers will be covered for three visits to the doctor and three generic prescriptions under the new plan before a $1,000 deductible kicks in.

The previous plan required the deductible payment to be met first.

"They are simply repackaging an old bad policy and calling it a fairer plan," said Paul Blank, campaign director of WakeUpWalMart.com, an activist campaign run by the United Food and Commercial Workers.

---end article---

Sounds to me like, while there will always be those who disagree, this would and must be considered a positive development.

Tim Keaney