(Something different this week — a topic I’ve thought about for a while, but wouldn’t have fit in the print edition because of all the numbers. Sorry some of the charts are a little hard to read, but the tabs from the original don't work on the blog, and it took a lot of work to get things as organized as they are.)
A lot of people — and I’m certainly among them — don’t like the way the NHL determines its standings in the shootout era.
It bothers us that teams can gain in the standings for losing. With a point awarded losses in overtime or shootouts, a team could theoretically lose every game and still end up with 82 points, giving it what would technically be a .500 record in terms of points earned.
It bothers us that this credit for losing makes teams look better than they actually are. (One of the great fallacies repeated by a lot of broadcasters is that “there are only (fill in number) teams with losing records,� a statistic which relies only on the first two columns in the standings, wins and losses. Overtime/shootout losses are ignored. By this accounting, that would mean that, after Saturday’s games, there were only five teams with losing record. But if you add in the third column — which are, after all, losses — the number of teams with losing records jumps to 15.
And it bothers us that a shootout win is worth the same amount in the standings as a dominant victory in regulation time. (Presumably, it bothers some people in the league, as well. More than once, Ducks coach Randy Carlyle has downplayed a shootout loss by saying something like, “We were even in the game but lost the skills competition.�)
There have been various suggestions on ways to address these issues. The most common proposal — voted down by the general managers a year ago — is to make a regulation victory worth three points.
My own preference would be to quit awarding points for overtime or shootout losses, in one of two ways: 1.) Award three points for a regulation win, two for an overtime win and one for a shootout win, or 2.) Award two points for a regulation win and one for an overtime or shootout win.
I’ve always felt this would do a better job of rewarding the good teams and exposing the bad ones, but I’ve never exactly known what the impact would be. So, this weekend, I sat down and did the math.
There are a lot of lists and tables coming up — hopefully I can get the tabulation to work on the blog to make them readable. If the details interest you, there’s a lot here to look at. If not, feel free to skip to the summary at the end.
OK, so if you got up Sunday morning and looked at one of those web sites that provides NHL standings for the entire league, ranked 1-30, this is what you would have seen:
........................ GP .. W L OTL .. Pts
1. Detroit............49 .. 35 10 4 .. 74
2. Ottawa............47 .. 30 13 4 .. 64
3. Anaheim.........50 .. 27 17 6 .. 60
4. Dallas.............50 .. 27 18 5 .. 59
5. Pittsburgh.......47 .. 27 17 3 .. 57
6. San Jose......... 47 .. 25 15 7 .. 57
7. Montreal.........47 .. 24 15 8 .. 56
8. Calgary...........49 .. 24 17 8 .. 56
9. Philadelphia.... 45 .. 25 15 5 .. 55
10. New Jersey....46 .. 26 17 3 .. 55
11. Minnesota.....47 .. 26 18 3 .. 55
12. Vancouver.....48 .. 25 18 5 .. 55
13. Colorado.......47 .. 25 18 4 .. 54
14. Columbus.....48 .. 23 19 6 .. 52
15. Boston..........46 .. 23 18 5 .. 51
16. NY Islanders. 47 .. 23 19 5 .. 51
17. St. Louis........45 .. 22 17 6 .. 50
18. Phoenix........47 .. 24 21 2 .. 50
19. Nashville...... 47 .. 23 20 4 .. 50
20. Chicago........48 .. 23 21 4 .. 50
21. NY Rangers...48 .. 22 20 6 .. 50
22. Carolina........50 .. 23 23 4 .. 50
23. Atlanta..........49 .. 23 23 3 .. 49
24. Washington... 47 .. 21 21 5 .. 47
25. Edmonton.....49 .. 21 23 5 .. 47
26. Buffalo..........46 .. 20 20 6 .. 46
27. Toronto.........48 .. 19 21 8 .. 46
28. Florida..........49 .. 21 24 4 .. 46
29. Tampa Bay....48 .. 19 24 5 .. 43
30. Los Angeles...49 .. 19 28 2 .. 40
Sorry about that, Kings fans.
Now, to figure out alternative standings, using any of the three methods mentioned above (adding three-point regulation wins to the current method, 3-2-1 for regulation, overtime or shootout wins, or 2-1 for regulation and shootout wins), we need some information not included in these standings, specifically a breakdown of the types of victories. If there’s someplace online that carries the standings this way, I’d love to know about it. In lieu of that, I had to go through each team’s game-by-game results, which was not a thrilling way to spend a couple of hours.
Anyway, here are the “expanded� records — breaking down wins (and losses; even though it doesn’t really matter for our purposes, I thought it would be interesting to see) by regulation, overtime and shootout. I’ve arranged them here according to the 3-2-1 standings method; below, I’ll list the rankings and point totals under the other two methods. (The number in parenthesis is their ranking under the current system. Ties are broken in favor of the team with most wins; remaining ties are broken in favor of the most wins in regulation..)
.......................W (R-OT-SO) .. L (R-OT-SO) .. Pts.
1. Detroit............35 (30-0-5) .. 15 (11-0-4) .. 95
2. Ottawa............30 (26-2-2) .. 17 (13-1-3) .. 84
3. Philadelphia.....25 (24-1-0) .. 20 (15-2-3) .. 74
4. Minnesota...... 26 (23-2-1) .. 21 (18-0-3) .. 74
5. San Jose..........25 (23-0-2) .. 19 (14-2-5) .. 71
6. Pittsburgh.......27 (21-1-5) .. 20 (17-1-2) .. 70
7. Anaheim.........27 (20-3-4) .. 23 (17-1-5) .. 70
8. Dallas.............27 (20-3-4) .. 23 (18-3-2) .. 70
9. New Jersey......26 (20-2-4) .. 20 (17-2-1) .. 68
10. Vancouver.....25 (20-2-3) .. 23 (18-0-5) .. 67
11. Colorado.......25 (19-3-3) .. 22 (18-2-2) .. 66
12. Calgary........ 24 (20-2-2) .. 25 (17-6-2) .. 66
13. Carolina....... 23 (21-1-1) .. 27 (23-3-1) .. 66
14. Montreal...... 24 (18-4-2) .. 22 (14-2-6) .. 64
15. Nashville.......23 (20-1-2) .. 24 (20-0-4) .. 64
16. Columbus..... 23 (20-1-2) .. 25 (19-1-5) .. 64
17. St. Louis........22 (21-0-1) .. 23 (17-3-3) .. 64
18. Phoenix ........24 (19-1-4) .. 22 (21-0-1) .. 63
19. Boston..........23 (19-2-2) .. 23 (18-2-3) .. 63
20. NY Islanders. 23 (18-3-2) .. 24 (19-3-2) .. 62
21. Chicago........ 23 (18-2-3) .. 25 (21-3-1) .. 61
22. Washington... 21 (17-3-1) .. 26 (21-3-2) .. 58
23. NY Rangers...22 (16-3-3) .. 26 (20-2-4) .. 57
24. Buffalo......... 20 (16-3-1) .. 26 (20-1-5) .. 55
25. Atlanta......... 23 (13-5-5) .. 26 (23-0-3) .. 54
26. Florida..........21 (16-1-4) .. 28 (24-2-2) .. 54
27. Tampa Bay....19 (17-0-2) .. 29 (24-4-1) .. 53
28. Toronto........ 19 (15-2-2) .. 29 (21-5-3) .. 51
29. Los Angeles.. 19 (14-2-3) .. 30 (28-0-2) .. 49
30. Edmonton......21 (9-1-11) .. 28 (23-2-3) ..40
Congratulations Kings fans. Since this system dramatically exposes Edmonton’s reliance on the shootout, you’re out of the cellar. Also, under this scoring, Calgary — currently the highest-ranking team with what is actually a losing record — drops four spots; Philadelphia and Minnesota, good at taking care of business in regulation time, are the big beneficiaries.
In brief, here are how the teams would rank under the other two methods.
Three points for a regulation win, two points for an overtime or shootout win, one point for an overtime or shootout loss:
1. Detroit, 104 points; 2. Ottawa, 90; 3. San Jose, 80; 4. Anaheim, 80; 5. Philadelphia, 79; 6. Dalls, 79; 7. Minnesota, 78; 8. Pittsburgh, 78; 9. Calgary, 76; 10. New Jersey, 75; 11. Vancouver, 75; 12. Montreal, 74; 13. Colorado, 73; 14. Columbus, 72; 15. Carolina, 71; 16. St. Louis, 71; 17. Nashville, 70; 18. Boston, 70; 19. N.Y. Islanders 69; 20. Phoenix, 68; 21. Chicago, 68; 22. N.Y. Rangers, 66; 23. Washington, 64; 24. Atlanta, 62; 25. Florida, 62; 26. Buffalo, 62; 27. Toronto, 61; 28. Tampa Bay, 60; 29. Edmonton, 56; 30. Los Angeles, 54.
Two points for a regulation win, one point for an overtime or shootout loss:
1. Detroit, 65 points; 2. Ottawa, 56; 3. Philadelphia, 49; 4. Minnesota, 49; 5. San Jose, 48; 6. Pittsburgh, 48; 7. Dallas, 47; 8. Anaheim, 47; 9. New Jersey, 46; 10. Vancouver, 45; 11. Carolina, 44; 12. Calgary, 44; 13. Colorado, 44; 14. St. Louis, 43; 15. Nashville, 43; 16. Columbus, 43; 17. Phoenix, 43; 18. Boston, 42; 19. Montreal, 42; 20. N.Y. Islanders, 41; 21. Chicago, 41; 22. Washington, 38; 23. N.Y. Rangers, 38; 24. Florida, 37; 25. Tampa Bay, 36; 26. Buffalo, 36; 27. Atlanta, 36; 28. Toronto, 34; 29. Los Angeles, 33; 30. Edmonton, 30.
And finally, here’s a chart of where the teams would rank under each system. ("Now" is the current system; "3win" is the 3-point win, two-point OT/SO win, one-point OT/SO loss; "3/2/1" gives points for the various wins, nothing for losses; "2-1" is the two-point win, one-point OT/SO win, nothing for losses).
..................... Now ... 3win .. 3/2/1 .. 2-1
Detroit............. 1 ........ 1 ........ 1 ........ 1
Ottawa............. 2 ........ 2 ........ 2 ........ 2
Anaheim.......... 3 ........ 4 ........ 7 ........ 8
Dallas.............. 4 ........ 6 ........ 8 ........ 7
Pittsburgh ........ 5 ........ 8 ........ 6 ........ 6
San Jose........... 6 ........ 3 ........ 5 ........ 5
Montreal........... 7 ....... 12 ...... 14 ...... 19
Calgary............. 8 ........ 9 ...... 12 ....... 12
Philadelphia ..... 9 ........ 5 ........ 3 ........ 3
New Jersey ...... 10 ...... 10 ....... 9 ........ 9
Minnesota ........ 11 ....... 7 ....... 4 ........ 4
Vancouver ........12 ...... 11 ...... 10 ...... 10
Colorado ......... 13 ...... 13 ...... 11 ......13
Columbus ....... 14 ...... 14 ...... 16 ...... 16
Boston ............ 15 ...... 18 ...... 19 ...... 18
NY Islanders .....16 ...... 19 ...... 20 ..... 20
St. Louis ...........17 ...... 16 ...... 17 ...... 14
Phoenix .......... 18 ...... 20 ...... 18 ...... 17
Nashville ..........19 ...... 17 ...... 15 ...... 15
Chicago .......... 20 ...... 21 ...... 21 ...... 21
NY Rangers ..... 21 ...... 22 ...... 23 ...... 23
Carolina .......... 22 ...... 15 ...... 13 ...... 11
Atlanta ........... 23 ...... 24 ...... 25 ...... 27
Washington ..... 24 ...... 23 ...... 22 ...... 22
Edmonton ....... 25 ...... 29 ...... 30 ...... 30
Buffalo ............ 26 ...... 26 ...... 24 ...... 26
Toronto .......... 27 ...... 27 ...... 28 ...... 28
Florida ........... 28 ...... 25 ...... 26 ...... 24
Tampa Bay ..... 29 ...... 28 ...... 27 ...... 25
Los Angeles .... 30 ...... 30 ...... 29 ...... 29
What we see is that the best teams and the worst teams are pretty much the same under any system, and there are a few teams that succeed (or don’t) only in the current setup. Also, either of the scoring systems eliminating points for overtime and shootout losses produce virtually the same results. If I didn’t break ties, I could have arranged the 30 teams in almost identical order; only Montreal (downward) and Florida (upward) would have moved.
That being the case, I’d probably prefer to see the method giving two points for regulation wins and one for overtime and shootout wins. It doesn’t inflate the point totals the way the others do, it’s not as radical a change as the three-point win, so the old guard might accept it, and still ends the practice of rewarding teams for losing. Also, it makes sure that teams don’t have any incentive to play for a tie in regulation, as they do now to ensure themselves of getting at least one point.
If possible, I’ll revisit this at the end of the season and see how playoff teams and pairings might have changed under the various system.
For now, there’s a lot there to peruse. Your comments are, as always, encouraged.









I like your analysis. Yeah, there's lots of numbers to keep track of, but you did a good job breaking it down and explaining. I agree that it seems silly to award a point just for surviving the first three periods at least tied to the opponent. It's no doubt that way right now due to politics. It would be great to change things so that a win in regulation is much more meaningful than one in sudden death or shootout. But what do you think is the likelihood that the NHL will actually make a change along those lines? How big is the groundswell of interest in making the change? Look how difficult it is to get them to agree on a change to the schedules that would get every eastern team at least one appearance a year at Staples or Honda Center home ice, instead seeing San Jose and the Coyotes over and over and over again. I swear it's harder to get the NHL to change things like that than it is to turn a full-steam-ahead oil tanker around a 90-degree corner.