A LICENSE TO MAKE POLITICAL HAY

If you wanted a preview of the fall legislative political campaigns, all you had to do in Sacramento this week was listen to the way Republican lawmakers jumped on a comment Democratic Sen. Martha Escutia made to the San Francisco Chronicle and presented it as an organized conspiracy orchestrated by every Latino Democrat in the Legislature. The issue involved is the one that will dominate political mailers in legislative districts up and down the state: The law enacted last year, since rescinded, that would have allowed illegal immigrants to obtain a California driver's license.

Escutia, perhaps in a fit of frustration, told the Chronicle that she and others in the Latino caucus might withhold votes on the budget until Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger delivers on his commitment to support a new bill that would accomplish the same goal, but also include additional security measures. It would be extremely difficult to attain the two-thirds majority support needed for passage of the budget if the 15 Latino Democrats in the Assembly and 9 in the Senate were to abstain from voting until the driver's license issue is resolved. She said Democrats could use the budget as leverage to pressure Schwarzenegger to keep his promise.

Assembly Republican leader Kevin McCarthy and his colleagues jumped on the statement, reacting as if Escutia had already received commitments to follow through on her threat. When Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez and several of his Democratic colleagues held a news conference on Wednesday to say they were drawing a line against proposed higher education cutbacks in the budget, McCarthy called the issue a smokescreen to hide the Democrats' true agenda of holding up the budget over the driver's license issue.

Problem is, there hasn't been a public expression of support from any Democrats to Escutia's suggestion.

You can't blame Republican lawmakers, however, from trying to stir the issue at every opportunity. Although extemely important to the immigrant community -- an important element of the Democrats' base -- the issue is a loser for Democrats. It helped to drive the recall movement last fall, and had the Legislature not rescinded the law on its own it's highly likely a referendum to overturn it would have qualified for the ballot.

A preview of the issue's political potency was played out in Ventura County this spring, when Assembly Republican challenger Mike Robinson used it to almost fatally wound the eventual GOP winner, Audra Strickland, in the 37th Assembly District GOP primary. There is no question Republicans will use the same tactic this fall against every Democratic legislator who, like Strickland's husband, Tony, voted for any version of the bill.

It creates a huge headache for Schwarzenegger, who prides himself on delivering on his promises. As an immigrant himself, Schwarzenegger sympathizes with the need for immigrant workers to be able to drive back and forth to work, and he has repeatedly stated his desire for a compromise. He also, however, recognizes the political volatility of the issue. Schwarzenegger mused earlier this spring about trying to find a version of the bill that would receive two-thirds support in the Legislature — which would be enough to avert a potential referendum.

For that to happen, however, Schwarzenegger would have to find at least 2 GOP senators and at least six GOP Assembly members to support the new bill. It won't happen. Republican lawmakers may like to call themselves "Arnold's Army," but they're not about to throw away their best political issue just to help Schwarzenegger keep his word.

ON A SUMMER NIGHT, YOU CAN HEAR THE CORN GROWING

This is bill deadline season in the California Legislature, with all bills having to pass out of their house of origin by Friday, May 28, or wait to be resurrected next year. It is a time when the always noisy Assembly becomes a little silly as bill after bill is debated on the floor.

Yesterday, in reaching for a level of comity that always somehow seems behind their reach, Assembly members tried enforcing a rule that prohibits one from referring to another by name in floor remarks. This is the rule that leads to the stilted style associated with the United States Senate, where members are always referred to as "the senator from Iowa" or "the gentleman from West Virginia." The attempt had limited success, and if nothing else generated some good humor.

Still, nothing could be done about the substance of the debate. In arguing against a bill by Assemblyman Joe Nation that would require a greenhouse gas emission index to be posted on new cars along with their fuel-efficiency rating, Assemblyman Ray Haynes not only disputed the idea that carbon-burning fuels might contribute to global warming, but also suggested that the phenomenon of global warming could help California agriculture because many crops grow faster during "hot nights."

Many in the agriculture community are more concerned with another phenomenon that global warming could bring: a severe reduction in the Sierra snowpack, source of most of the water that irrigates California crops.

WHAT DO WOMEN WANT?

Ever wonder what a soccer mom does on weekdays? Chances are better than you might think that she owns her own business. And in that role, she could be a decisive voter in November's presidential election.

The organization Women Impacting Public Policy, a nonpartisan group 500,000 members strong, has been touting an intriguing poll it commissioned last year to make the case that woman business owners could be a pivotal voting bloc in presidential politics. The poll made these points: 1 in 13 adult women in America owns a business, they almost always vote (90 percent say they have done so in every recent election), they do not tilt toward one party or the other (38 percent independent, 30 percent Republican, 27 percent Democratic), they will constitute perhaps as much as 10 percent of the electorate, and about 20 percent are genuinely undecided about who will get their vote in the fall.

John Kerry was impressed enough with all this that he participated in a conference call this morning with about 2,000 of the group's members from around the country. In his remarks, Kerry talked mostly about healthcare. He talked of his plan to have the federal government pick up 75 percent of the cost of insuring catastrophic health problems, which he says would reduce health insurance costs to employers by $1,000 per year per insured family. He also said he would offer tax credits for small businesses that provide health insurance to employees.

The group has co-founders: Oklahoma Republican Terry Neese, a Bush Ranger by virtue of having raised at least $100,000 for President Bush, and San Francisco Democrat Barbara Kasoff, who serves on Kerry's Small Business Policy Committee.