At one point during the collapsing negotiations over the failed "big bond" package this week, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger reportedly told legislative leaders that "we will all be losers" if the deal fell apart.

The deal fell apart and, sure enough, Schwarzenegger and the Legislature look like losers today -- and are being characterized as just that in the press.

But who was the winner? My guess is that is was Democratic Treasurer Phil Angelides. Why? Because without the bond and all the television advertising that measure would have generated in the run-up to the June election, the only remaining items on the ballot are mostly snoozers. Rob Reiner's universal preschool initiative. A small library bond. No action on either side in the U.S. Senate race.

The only real statewide campaign this spring will now be the matchup between Angelides and Controller Steve Westly for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. That's a formula for a substandard voter turnout, which generally means only true-blue Democratic voters will go to the polls. Since Angelides has the support of the party establishment and organized labor, he'll be able to get many of his voters out. Westly is relying more on television advertising, which tends to sway more casual voters. A low turnout helps Angelides.

Add to all that the near certainty that the Angelides-Westly campaign will ultimately turn into an ugly food fight on the state's airwaves. Negative campaigns typically can be counted on to depress voter turnout even further.

Westly now has two tough tasks ahead. First, he has to persuade mainstream Democratic voters that he is the better choice. Then, he has to persuade them that it's worth their while to vote. It's a very tall order.