May 2006 Archives

The hug

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If you've ever had a photo taken on the dance floor at a wedding reception about the time the champagne punch bowl has been emptied, you likely know how Steve Westly will feel when he sees the latest Phil Angelides TV ad released today.

Did I really do that?

The ad, called "Twins," features the long-expected introduction into the campaign of images showing Westly and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, co-chairs of the 2004 campaign for Propositions 57 and 58, campaigning together. The ad shows three images, still photos in black and white. All show a smiling Westly and Schwarzenegger in the same frame. The closing image, however, is the killer. It shows Westly in an awkward hug of the governor, his face embedded in Schwarzenegger's shoulder.

As the image lingers, a narrator says: "Californians don't need a Schwarzenegger twin."

While it's true that many high-profile Democrats — including Angelides' campaign co-chair U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein — actively campaigned for the deficit bonds authorized by Proposition 57, none did so with quite the vigor of Westly.

Whether these ads will be effective for Angelides is hard to say. But, watching them, the thought does occur that those images might come in handy for Schwarzenegger if Westly wins the primary.

LNG foe's political stance

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Santa Barbara environmental activist Susan Jordan, who for two years has been on the front lines of statewide efforts to better analyze the need for and potential consequences of potential LNG terminals on or off the California coast, is typically a behind-the-scenes operator who sticks doggedly to the issues.

But yesterday afternoon she joined with other environmental activists to heatedly denounce TV ads by Controller Steve Westly that accuse Treasurer Phil Angelides, his opponent for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, of being a toady to the oil industry and a rapacious land developer who trampled over environmental regulations to make a buck.

"I'm absolutely horrified at the depths to which Westly has sunk," Jordan said in a conference call with reporters.

When I called her personally later, Jordan related that last year she met with Angelides to brief him on the LNG issue and seek his support for a bill that would have required the state to study and rank the various LNG proposals up and down the state. In short order, she said, Angelides studied the issue, understood its implications and took a stance in support of the bill. Meanwhile, Westly vacillated for months and did not take a position.

Jordan says she was impressed by Angelides and "his intelligence, his clarity and his leadership."

"I don't need anyone to ask me who will stand up to the oil companies, because I know the answer," Jordan said.

Tony in your tank

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Voters in Ventura County may remember that when gas prices spiked in 2000, their local assemblyman, Tony Strickland, launched a stunt to call attention to the issue and score some political points. He went to gas stations and personally refunded to selected customers the amount of the sales tax on their gasoline purchase. His message: The state should eliminate the sales tax on gasoline.

At the time, Strickland had an actual political point to make: The sales tax on gasoline went into the state general fund and was unrelated to transportation needs. Most motorists believe that all the taxes they pay on gas are used for road construction and repair — not just the federal and state excise taxes that are dedicated for those purposes. Since that wasn't the case, he argued, maybe the state should just get rid of the tax.

Since, however, voters have passed a ballot measure to direct sales taxes on gasoline sales to transportation. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders of both parties last year made a very big deal over the fact that they had directed every dime of gasoline sales taxes for roads and mass transit. This year, the governor and legislative leaders have agreed to place on the November ballot a measure that would add future assurances that the money will go for transportation.

But now Strickland is running for state controller, gasoline prices have spiked again, and he is back at gas stations with an open wallet and an eye for the cameras. On Monday, editors of the Chico Enterprise-Record made plain what they thought of Strickland's activities. They endorsed Strickland's opponent in the Republican primary, Sen. Abel Maldonado, in an editorial headlined "Lame idea makes one choice easy."

Today, Strickland sent out a press release with a headline that suggested maybe he had decided to start an initiative campaign to do away with the sales tax on gasoline. It said, "Strickland Launches Petition Drive to Repeal Double Tax on Gasoline."

Turns out, however, that it isn't an initiative petition. Strickland has started circulating a petition to send to Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez. There's a lot less octane in that.

Tension among the guests

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When Ventura County Republicans came together Friday night in Thousand Oaks to induct Sen. Tom McClintock into their Hall of Fame there were — it being primary season — some awkward moments.

Supervisor Judy Mikels sat well across the room from challenger Peter Foy. Ditto for Bob Larkin, who was well removed from the front-center table where the incumbent Assembly member he is challenging, Audra Strickland, was seated.

And congressional challenger Michael Tenenbaum worked the room and mingled, but I never saw him come too close to Janice Gallegly, wife of the incumbent congressman he is challenging.

There were others in attendance who weren't too keen on Tenenbaum's candidacy. Norma Lagomarsino, wife of ex-Congressman Bob Lagomarsino, saw the challenger working the room and remarked, "This is the first time I've seen Michael Huffington ... er, Tenenbaum. Freudian slip."

Lagomarsino was ousted from Congress in 1992 because of a primary challenge from Huffington, who went on to win election to the House, immediately begin running for the Senate, lose the Senate race and then disappear from politics.

Just an artist from Ojai...

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Looking over Rep. Elton Gallegly's campaign-finance filings with the FEC yesterday, I noted the long list of local contributors that represented a who's who of Ventura County's social and economic establishment.

There were ranchers, bankers, business owners, doctors -- all the usual suspects.

And then there was this unusual entry: A contribution from a donor whose occupation was described as a self-employed artist from Ojai.

The name of the artist? Michael D. Bradbury, the former district attorney.

A Ventura County GOP coup?

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Rumors abound that there will be a post-primary revolt in the Ventura County Republican Central Committee, with a move afoot to oust five-year party chairwoman Leslie Cornejo as payback for her endorsement of challenger Michael Tenenbaum over 10-term incumbent Elton Gallegly in the 24th Congressional District GOP primary.

Cornejo's tenure has brought an era of stability and professionalism to a party committee that had been previously wrought with ideological strife and power struggles between social conservatives and moderates. Cornejo, from the moderate wing, has managed to move the central committee beyond ideology and allowed it to regain its focus on the nuts-and-bolts of electoral politics: raising money, organizing volunteers and registering voters. Under her direction, the party has hired an executive director and opened multiple offices during campaign seasons. Last fall, Ventura County was one of the few Republican-dominated counties to deliver for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's failed special election ballot initiatives. For its efforts, the county party was singled out by state party leaders.

But Cornejo's endorsement of Tenenbaum over a sitting Republican congressman has been too much even for some of her moderate allies to take. There is talk of removing her from the leadership post when the committee meets in late June, its first meeting after the primary election.

Gallegly has many allies on the Central Committee, including Clark Johnson, whose wife is the congressman's campaign manager; Peggy Sadler, a long-time friend dating back to Gallegly's days on the Simi Valley City Council; and ex officio alternate member Brian Miller, the congressman's popular and able district staff chief.

Cornejo endorsed Tenenbaum during the uncertain weekend following Gallegly's retirement announcement on Friday, March 10, and his change-of-heart the following Wednesday, after it had become clear there was no way he could have his name removed from the ballot and that there could be no extension of the filing period to allow other potential candidates to come forward.

Although others, including committeeman David Tennessen, also endorsed Tenenbaum over that weekend, they rescinded their endorsements after Gallegy re-entered. Cornejo stuck by her decision, although she says she has done nothing on Tenenbaum's behalf since.

Sources say Gallegly himself is not orchestrating the coup, but that the effort has developed powerful momentum. "The endorsement has broken up her coalition," said one committee member, who asked not to be named. "She's going to get removed. It's absolutely going to happen."

Cornejo's plans are to voluntarily step down at the end of the year, believing that five years at the helm are quite enough. A leadership revolt between the primary and the general election, she believes, would not be in the party's interest as it gears up for a fall election that promises to be difficult for Republicans nationwide.

Rapid response

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How's this for responding rapidly in a campaign?
-- On Friday, Controller Steve Westly goes on the air with TV ads attacking Democratic primary opponent Treasurer Phil Angelides as someone who's never met a tax he didn't like.
-- On Saturday, newspapers in California — including the Sacramento Bee, with the straightforward headline "Westly first to air negative TV ad" — report that Westly has launched the first television commercial of the primary campaign to name and criticize his opponent.
-- On Monday, the Angelides releases its own commerical, "Westly in his own words," that features video clips of Westly asserting that he will not be the first to resort to negative advertising, with the Sacramento Bee headline superimposed over Westly's image.

The Angelides ad has no narration, no campaign-generated graphics. Justly Westly and a newspaper headline.

"We're just letting people know what Steve Westly said," noted Angelides campaign manager Cathy Calfo. "It's just 100 percent Steve Westly in his own words."

Maybe the ad will be effective, maybe not. But this much is immediately clear: The Angelides campaign, which seemed somewhat sluggish a month ago, has become agile and very fast on its feet.

Speckles of blue on red

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I was asked to speak last night to the Conejo Valley Democratic Club, a group that is understandably sensitive about the national and state parties' tendencies to concentrate their political efforts in areas in which Democratic voters dominate. In Thousand Oaks, 47 percent of voters are Republican and 31 percent are Democrats. It's one of the areas that Democratic Party big-wigs tend to ignore.

Just as Howard Dean is seeking to change the Democratic strategy nationally from one that concentrates just on key states to one that has a 50-state strategy, Democrats in Ventura County would like to see the California Democratic Party leadership adopt a 58-county strategy. Interestingly, Dean was in Orange County earlier this week, backing up his vow to try to invigorate Democrats in places where they had often been ignored before.

So I did a little research and came up with a surprising number.

The political calculus in California has always been that Democrats must win big in the San Francisco Bay area and in Los Angeles and hold their own in the Central Valley. For Republicans, the strategy is to keep their losses in L.A. County to a minimum, do well in the Central Valley and then win big in the Southern California counties other than Los Angeles.

As a result, each party's pre-election efforts tend to focus on trying to boost voter turnout in the regions where it expects the strongest support. Democrats in places like Ventura County tend to get ignored, as do Republicans in the Bay area counties.

That strategy is the easiest and perhaps least expensive, but is it the most effective?

Consider these numbers:

-- In the five Southern California red counties — Orange, Riverside, San Diego, San Bernardino and Ventura — there are a combined 1,574,939 registered Democratic voters.
-- In the six dark blue counties that touch the San Francisco Bay — Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara — there are a combined 1,430,282 Democrats.

Those red county Democrats in the south may be much more dispersed than the Democrats in the north, but there are more of them.

What's in a name?

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There is a disheartening and mostly unspoken reality about Republican primaries in California: A candidate with a Hispanic surname is at a disadvantage.

Whatever the percentage — and it is undoubtedly small, but still large enough to be significant — there are a certain number of GOP voters who prefer not to vote for a Latino. That fact of life certainly manifested itself in the 2004 U.S. Senate primary in the disappointing showing of Rosario Marin, the former President Bush-appointed U.S. treasurer and now secretary of California's State and Consumer Services Agency. It was perhaps even more evident in the 2002 primary for insurance commissioner.

The nomination was won by Gary Mendoza, but barely. Mendoza — a former deputy mayor of Los Angeles, law partner of former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan and one-time director of the California Department of Corporations — was clearly the most qualified of three Republicans on the ballot. He raised the most money and had the most endorsements.

Yet Medoza won only narrowly over two Anglo candidates, both of whom could be described as fringe challengers. Medoza got 800,000 votes, Stefan Stitch 700,000 and Wes Bannister 400,000. In a one-to-one matchup with either, it's not at all certain that Mendoza would have prevailed.

This June there will be another test case in the primary for controller. State Sen. Abel Maldonado is on the ballot. Maldonado has impressive credentials: a rags-to-riches family story, a former mayor of Santa Maria, a one-time member of the Assembly and now a state senator. Perhaps the most prominent Latino elected official in the California Republican Party, he has been afforded star treatment by both President Bush and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Unlikle Mendoza, Maldonado does face opposition from a reasonably well-funded and well-connected Republican: former Ventura County Assemblyman Tony Strickland.

So, the question: Will Strickland benefit from an apparent bias in GOP primaries against Latino candidates?

Maybe not so much. Consider that there are also two other minor candidates on the Republican ballot in June. Both have very Anglo names — David Harris and Bret Davis. Both have respectable ballot titles: Harris a "businessman" and Davis a "city treasurer."

By definition, those voters who won't vote for a candidate because of his surname can't be all that bright. If that is the level of thought they put into casting their ballots, it would seem they're just as likely to vote for Harris or Davis as for Strickland. That's a welcome break for Maldonado. If he's going to be the victim of ballot-box discrimination, at least that bias could be watered down three ways.

The 'empty suit' responds

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It figured that Controller Steve Westly would find a way to fire back a zinger at Sen. Tom McClintock when he spoke to the Democratic state convention over the weekend.

If you'll remember, McClintock fired the first shot in his speech to Republican state convention in February, calling Westly "the emptiest suit I have ever encountered in 25 years of politics."

On Saturday, Westly slipped this line into his speech to Democrats: "I'm ... proud that you helped elect me controller in 2002 -- because, Lord knows, somebody had to beat Tom McClintock."

The two faced each other in the 2002 controller's race, with Westly winning by the narrowest margin of any statewide race four years ago. Because of the residue from that close contest, each tends to still get under the other's skin.

Republicans have been talking up McClintock, running unopposed in the GOP primary for lieutenant governor, as one of their best hopes this year. They base that on the high name-ID and generally favorable public impression that McClintock built up as a candidate for governor during the 2003 recall campaign.

Democrats believe that McClintock got off easy in that campaign, because it was in none of the other major candidate's best interest to attack him. Arnold Schwarzenegger couldn't afford to alienate McClintock's right-wing base, and Cruz Bustamante realized that every vote McClintock received would be one that didn't go to Schwarzenegger. So no one challenged or criticized the sharp-tongued senator from Thousand Oaks.

Things will be different this time around, Democratic Party political director Sam Rogriguez assured me over the weekend. "We've got him on our radar screen."

Some Ventura County Democrats might remember Rodriguez from his role in a local 1992 congressional race. He was campaign manager for Anita Perez Ferguson, who challenged Rep. Elton Gallegly that year.

95 percent accurate
Over the last 25 presidential elections, Ventura County voters have backed the winner 24 times, or over 95 percent of the time. It is one of only a handful of counties in the nation that has been such a predictable bellwether.
about Timm Herdt
Timm Herdt
The Ventura County Star's Sacramento Bureau Chief Timm Herdt on state issues and politics from Sacramento to Ventura County. He can be contacted at therdt@vcstar.com
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