Political parlor games never seem to go out of fashion, so Democratic operative and blogster Steve Maviglio this week released his updated handicapping of the potential Democratic candidates for governor in 2010. His full analysis of the 10-candidate field can be found at the California Majority Report blog.
It's interesting speculation, and Maviglio joins the chorus of observers — Republican and Democrat — who I've talked to in recent months who place Attorney General Jerry Brown at the top of the heap. Frankly, I find this universal assumption of Brown's favoritism somewhat puzzling, given his age (he'll be 70 next year, 72 in 2010 and would be 77 at the end of the next gubernatorial term) and the fact that he's previously served two terms. Nevertheless, the conventional wisdom in Sacramento at this point makes him the favorite.
Ventura County Democrats will note that Maviglio rates the local native son, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell No. 7 in the field. As with most other pundits, he has good things to say about O'Connell but doubts his ability to play on the biggest stage, given his low statewide name-recognition and questionable ability to raise the mega-millions of dollars that would be needed.
To me, the most intriguing individual on the list is Treasurer Bill Lockyer, who checks in at No. 6 on the list. Lockyer is without question the Democrats' 2010 wild card — either as a candidate or as a potential kingmaker. At the end of last year, Lockyer had a $10.3 million surplus in his campaign account. That's a huge amount, and will continue to grow substantially even if Lockyer doesn't lift a finger. His report for the last quarter of 2006 reports a $96,443 "miscellaneous increase to cash" -- in other words interest earned.That means Lockyer built his campaign account by about about $400,000 this year just on interest alone. Add another half million in interest in 2009, and he'll have a minimum of more than $11 million.
Many political observers question whether Lockyer actually wants to run governor, given that he decided against it in 2006 and seems to generally disdain thought of conducting an exhausting campaign for the state's highest office. If he chooses not to run, Lockyer could potentially play the role of kingmaker by using that money to fund an independent campaign for someone else.
It would be truly interesting to see Lockyer -- who is well known in Democratic circles for his humorous "top ten" lists -- put together his own list of how he ranks the leading Democratic contenders in 2010. That list would be more than just a parlor game.