There are growing signs that the dominant issue in the presidential and congressional elections next fall won't be Iraq, but rather the economy. When even White House economists downgrade their forecasts, as they did yesterday, saying the effects of the housing crisis will be more severe than originally thought, it's a certain sign that the nation's economy is going to get worse before it gets better.

All the presidential candidates who have spent the last 10 months honing their positions on Iraq should be prepared to tear up their stump speeches and replace them with ones that focus mainly on their economic policies. Once the economy becomes the primary issue of interest among voters, all other issues tend to fall distantly behind.

A polling memo out today from the Democracy Corps puts the situation like this:
"With gas prices once again rising over $3 per gallon and the subprime mortgage mess creating ripple effects ... that are likely only going to get worse, we are seeing signs of a potential breaking point. While the war in Iraq remains the dominant concern for Americans, economic concerns -- especially healthcare, jobs and energy costs -- have now emerged as a close second...

"The fact that not even the start of the holiday season could check the steady decline in consumer confidence suggests that economic concerns will become increasingly central to the public debate in 2008."