Confirming the speculation in Sacramento, conservative Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks has announced he will run for the Board of Equalization in 2010.

In a recent solicitation letter to financial supporters, McClintock writes: "I'm doing all I can to prepare for my campaign for the state's Board of Equalization."

In the fall, he disbanded his 2006 campaign committee left over from his unsuccessful bid for lieutenant governor and transferred the balance of the account to a new committee, McClintock Committee 2010. He tells supporters he hopes to raise $800,000 by March.

"Now is not the time to give in," he writes. "I firmly believe California's voters are on the verge of waking up to the leftist extremism that is destroying our state, and they've about had enough of it."

The decision will be a disappointment to some conservatives, who see McClintock has the party's most true-blue potential candidate for governor in 2010. But after having now lost four campaigns for statewide office, it appears McClintock may be scaling back his ambition, or perhaps retrenching in the hope of running for governor in 2014, when he will be 58.

Because Board of Equalization districts were part of the same incumbent-protecting gerrymander that was created for the Legislature and Congress in 2001, they are built to virtually guarantee victory for one party or the other. The district McClintock seeks to represent, a seat now held by Bill Leonard, enjoys a GOP voter registration edge of 3 percentage points. To win the seat, all McClintock will have to do is win the Republican primary -- something at which he has proven to successful in the past.

The decision is good news for Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. Should Poizner, as is widely anticipated, seek the GOP nomination for governor in 2010, it will make his path to the nomination considerably easier if he doesn't have to contend with a high-profile challenge from the right by McClintock.

The California division of the American Cancer Society has released its 2007 legislative scorecard, and lawmakers from Ventura County have the distinction of getting the lowest rankings in both the Assembly and Senate.

In the Senate, Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks scored 15 percent, and Assemblywoman Audra Strickland scored at the bottom in the lower house at 22 percent.

Scorecards from various interest groups typically skew heavily toward one party or the other, and this one is no exception: Democrats generally scored high, and Republicans low. What's unusual about McClintock's and Strickland's scores is they scored below all their Republican colleagues.

McClintock cast the only no vote in the Senate on one of the measures used to compute the score: AB 28, which extended the breast cancer income tax check-off program that allows taxpayers to make voluntary contributions to breast cancer research when completing their income-tax forms.

Strickland's low score is partly the result of having missed the last several days of the legislative session in the period immediately before and after the birth of her son. She was listed as "not voting" on 11 of the 18 bills used to compute the scorecard.

The remaining members of the Ventura County delegation fared better: Assemblywoman Julia Brownley and Sen. Sheila Kuehl each scored 100 percent; Assemblyman Pedro Nava 88.9 percent; Assemblyman Cameron Smyth 33.3 percent; and Sen. George Runner 25 percent.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, by the way, was given a score of 66.6 percent.

Secretary of State Debra Bowen today released the statewide report of voter registration as of 60 days before the February presidential primary election, and the data show that Democrats in Ventura County have continued their slow march toward parity.

Between Sept. 4 and Dec. 7, Democrats gained 2,132 new registered voters in the county while Republicans picked up just 824. That means that Democrats reduced the Republican advantage by about a third. As of Dec. 7, the GOP numerical advantage stood at 2,403. Just two months earlier, that advantage was 3,711.

More significantly, Democrats made slight gains in the area where it will likely count the most next fall -- in the 19th Senate District, where a contentious and potentially competitive race is expected. In that district, the Republican advantage is greater (18,501) and the Democratic gains were smaller (748). Still, the trend is going in the right direction for Democrats, and the movement will likely encourage state party leaders to spend resources in what, on paper, ought to remain a Republican district.

Some Democrats in the county are planning a July 4 celebration to mark the date they hope to catch and surpass Republican registration, thereby "turning Ventura County blue."

It's far too early to say whether that will happen.

Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner stopped by the office today for a conversation about Proposition 93, which I will write about in a future story for the Star. But over the course of a wide-ranging, hour-long conversation, he had some interesting things to say on other issues:

* On the prospects of a Republican candidate waging a competitive presidential race in California next fall: "I find it hard to believe. I can't see the scenario, to be honest about it."

* On the likelihood of his seeking the GOP nomination for governor in 2010: Basically, he said he wished others would stop focusing on something two election cycles away because he's finding, as others have before, that everything he does is seen through a cynical prism. "It would be a terrible thing if I had to sit on the sidelines just because people are speculating about my future plans... I hope people will form an opinion on what I'm doing based on whether it's a benefit to the people of California."

* He acknowledged there was some irony in his concern about others assigning him motives and interpreting actions through an intensely political prism, because much of his criticism of the term-limits initiative is based on his own reading of the motives of Assembly Speaker Fabian Nuñez, who is the moving force behind Proposition 93. "OK," he conceded at one point, "let's just focus on the merits."

* He said the thought of an earthquake keeps him awake nights in his new job. The reason: The percentage of California homes with earthquake insurance, which peaked at about 30 percent after the Northridge Quake, has now fallen to 11 percent.

Democratic members of the Assembly, who last year opened their Christmas gifts from Speaker Fabian Nuñez to find a bottle of expensive wine were not quite as overwhelmed by this year's gift.

Nuñez received much criticism in the press after his campaign finance reports revealed a pattern of lavish purchases while on trips to Europe, including $90 bottles of wine. Perhaps to blunt such criticism, Nuñez recently sold $3,238 worth of a second wine purchase to the Democratic Party, which reportedly intended to serve it at a future fund-raiser.

With the wine gone, what's a speaker to do to keep the members of his caucus happy at Christmastime?

Democratic Assembly members who returned to the Capitol Monday for a special vote on healthcare reform unwrapped the speaker's solution. He bought them carbon credits, with framed certificates to document the purchase.

I caught up with former Assemblywoman Fran Pavley while in Thousand Oaks on Friday, and found her still glowing over last week's federal court decision that struck down the auto industry's legal challenge of her landmark 2002 global warming bill.

With the decision, the only thing that now stands in the way of implementation of her bill to require cars sold in California to reduce carbon dioxide emissions is a waiver from the federal EPA. "All I want for Christmas is a waiver," Pavley says.

She notes that New Mexico has now joined the growing list of states poised to implement the California regulations once the waiver is granted -- either via a court order or a surrender from the Bush administration. The Illinois Legislature is poised to take up the matter next year, and if it joins in then the participating states will include a majority of all cars on the road in the United States. At that point, auto industry engineers will have no choice but to start rolling out cars that meet the California specifications.

Pavley is gearing up for her likely June primary battle against Van Nuys Assemblyman Lloyd Levine, and a tough fight appears to be shaping up. Levine has retained the services of top political consultant Gale Kaufman, while Pavley has Parke Skelton on her team.

Kaufman's presence throws into question what role the California Teachers Association might play in the primary. She is very close to the teachers' union, but Pavley, a retired schoolteacher, literally paid her CTA dues for more than two decades.

In addition, Levine has also reportedly brought in the services of Lyn Shaw, the chair of the state Democratic Party Women's Caucus. The move appears designed as an attempt to blunt the influence of Sen. Sheila Kuehl, a strong supporter of Pavley, who has lobbied hard to line up support for Pavley among women in her district.

Democrats in western Ventura County, clearly sensing that the year ahead could present a welcome opportunity, turned out in large number this evening for a Ventura Keys fund-raiser for former Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson, who is seeking the party's nomination in the 19th Senate District.

Jackson told me this week that her recent kickoff fund-raiser in Santa Barbara brought in about $120,000. The Ventura event won't match that, but more than 100 people brought their checkbooks this evening. Among them was former Supervisor Susan Lacey, who has stayed out of the political spotlight since stepping down from the Board of Supervisors seven years ago. Lacey was a co-host of the event, indicating a level of support that she says she has seldom shown in other campaigns.

One of the motivating factors for Lacey and other local Democrats is the opportunity to replace long-time nemesis Tom McClintock with one of their own. McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks, who has represented portions of Ventura County in the Legislature for 22 years, will be forced by term limits to step down unless Proposition 93 passes on Feb. 5. His departure would lead to an all-out partisan battle to succeed him in what party leaders figure will be the most competitive district in California next fall.

Jackson is one of two announced Democratic candidates, the other being Simi Valley political consultant Jim Dantona. Whether both will ultimately file in March to become official candidates is unclear. Former Assemblyman Tony Strickland of Moorpark is the only announced Republican candidate.

Jackson said she hopes her year-end fund-raising tally will impress state party leaders and demonstrate a level of local support that will encourage them to spend generously in the district in the fall.

Supervisor Steve Bennett introduced Jackson at the event, and made reference to McClintock's history of consistently voting no in the Legislature and saying no to local officials whenever they sought assistance from Sacramento. Jackson said her objective will be "to bring us to yes."

Since the Pete Wilson beginnings of a Latino backlash against politicians who talk insensitively tough against illegal immigration, victims of the backlash have loudly -- and, often, justifiably -- complained that their critics ignore the clear distinction they make between legal and illegal immigration.

The political difficulty in discussing illegal immigration from Mexico is that there is nearly no way to do it without stirring fear among Americans of Latino heritage.

A new survey released today by the Pew Hispanic Center documents the difficulty. It reports that 53 percent of Latino adults in America worry a lot (33%) or some (20%) that a close friend or family member could be deported. Among native-born Latino adults (by definition, U.S. citizens who have lived here at least 18 years), 32 percent have such a worry.

Among native-born Latinos, 53 percent say the immigration debate has made life more difficult for them -- 12 percent say they have been asked to prove their citizenship in the last year and 41 percent say they or a family member has experienced an incident of discrimination in the last five years. That number is up from 31 percent when pollsters asked the same question five years ago.

The political challenge remains more sensitive than ever: How can candidates honestly debate policies of border security and immigration enforcement and simultaneously assure Americans of Latino heritage that discussion will not fuel ethnic discrimination against them?

As Ron Paul supporters on the East Coast are readying the inaugural flight of the Ron Paul blimp in preparation for Sunday's re-enactment of the Boston Tea Party, fans of the Texas congressman in Ventura County are making plans of the own.

They hope to put together either a bus or car pool to Santa Monica on Sunday, where Southern California supporters intend to dump symbolic crates into the Pacific from the Santa Monica Pier. The trip is being organized the Ron Paul Meetup Group in Ventura, 75 members strong.

The Tea Party events coincide with a nationwide attempt by Paul supporters to break their own one-day Internet fund-raising record. They collected $4.3 million in contributions on Nov. 5 and now hope to top that Sunday.

Common Cause and the other proponents of an independent redistricting initiative now in circulation, having landed Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger as a prominent supporter last week, can also count on the backing of former Democratic controller and gubernatorial candidate Steve Westly.

Westly told me today that he hasn't yet been asked to publicly support the measure, but has already personally decided it would be a good thing. "Democrats are supposed to be the party of good government," he said.

Four similar initiatives have failed over the last 25 years, each suffering from the perception that it was a Republican power grab cloaked in the mantle of good-government reform. It this one is to meet a different fate at the ballot box, it will need the backing of prominent Democrats such as Westly to balance Schwarzenegger in order to persuade middle-of-the-road voters that it is truly bipartisan reform.

On another legislative reform issue, Westly said he has been approached by the Proposition 93 campaign and that an announcement could be coming soon of his support for the term-limits initiative on the Feb. 5 ballot. The campaign, he said, is putting together a coalition of supporters who do not currently hold elected office. Westly said he was around Sacramento long enough during his one term as controller to understand the importance of having legislators with some experience.

The former controller's status among state Democrats will surely rise if, as recent polling suggests, Barack Obama's campaign gets a boost in the Iowa caucus. Westly was among the first Californians to sign on to the Obama campaign and has been an energetic backer. He hosted a very successful Silicon Valley fund-raiser last month at his Atherton home, and plans to be on stage with the candidate tomorrow evening (Monday) in Universal City. The California event comes on the heels of two days of rallys with Oprah Winfrey in Iowa and South Carolina. The headliners in Universal City -- the Goo Goo Dolls -- are likely to attract a different demographic group than Winfrey

As Republican presidential candidates seek to establish their tough, anti-illegal immigration bona fides with the GOP's conservative base, a new Pew Research Center survey of Latino voters suggests a looming land mine in the general election.

The survey confirms that former White House strategist Karl Rove was correct: the Republicans' long-term prospects in presidential campaigns could be hurt by taking a hard line against allowing a path to citizenship to illegal immigrants who are already working in this country.

The survey shows that Democrats, who just a year ago enjoyed only a 21 percentage point advantage in the partisan leanings of Latino voters, have now widened their advantage to 34 percentage points. The Pew report notes that in 2008 Latino voters will have an advantage beyond their numbers because they will play a key role in determining the outcomes in four swing states: Florida, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada.

One of the things that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and First Lady Maria Shriver brought with them to Sacramento was a Hollywood flair the likes of which the Cowtown capital had never seen before. It hasn't always been a good thing. For instance, the simple, elegant tradition of lighting the Christmas tree on the Capitol lawn has been transformed in an extravagance of glitz, complete with professional recording artists and video displays.

Then there are events such as last night's induction ceremony into the new California Hall of Fame — an institution conceived two years ago by Shriver. It was a goosebump-inducing example of how Hollywood's skill at choreographed ritual and celebration of celebrity can be successfully transplanted.

Red carpets were placed along the O Street sidewalk outside the California Museum for History, Women & the Arts, as television cameras, photographers and autograph-seekers lined the ropes. Celebrity guests, inductees and their family members stopped frequently — and in most cases, joyously — along the media gauntlet.

It was interesting to note the different tactics of various state politicians, mostly unaccustomed to such potential for adoration. Lt. Gov. John Garamendi and his wife, Patty, zeroed in on every available camera and microphone. Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown virtually sneaked in unnoticed, and Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata walked by briskly while talking on a cellphone.

Former Gov. Gray Davis and his wife, Sharon, accommodated anyone who asked with an interview or handshake. I asked Davis, a former member of the golf team at Stanford, whether on this night he was the second-best former Stanford golfer in attendance, and he of course deferred to fellow Cardinal alum Tiger Woods, one of the inductees.

The ceremony was fast-paced, tasteful and inspirational. You can watch it here. In an inspired touch, each of the inductees or their representative (the sons of those who received the award posthumously) delivered the tribute for the succeeding inductee.

Especially because of a last-minute cancellation from Elizabeth Taylor, Woods was clearly the biggest celebrity draw of the night. Watching his visage on stage, there seemed to be a transformation as the ceremony unfolded and he came to realize that, unlike so many awards ceremonies he has attended (i.e. the Espies), the honorees with whom he shared the stage included giants who made lasting and invaluable contributions to American culture and science. There was an evident sense of humility as he listened to tributes for Earl Warren, John Steinbeck, Ansel Adams, Jonas Salk and Jackie Robinson.

Only a first lady with the personality, stature and celebrity connections of Shriver could have pulled off the launching of this event. She told reporters yesterday that she insists that living honorees personally attend, a condition that only someone with her persuasive powers could enforce.

Exhibits honoring the inductees will be at the museum a block from the Capitol for the next year. It should be a must visit for anyone coming to Sacramento.

Mark Friday, March 7, on your calendars. You can be sure that a good many Ventura County politicians already have.

That is the filing deadline for candidates to get their names on the June primary ballot, and it could be the day for a high-stakes game of cat and mouse in Ventura County. It was a chaotic day two years ago, when Rep. Elton Gallegly made the surprise announcement that he intended to retire, which prompted both former Assemblyman Tony Strickland and his wife, Assemblywoman Audra Strickland, to scramble to see whether they could meet a 5 p.m. deadline to run for Congress.

As it turned out, there was no reason for excitement. Since both Stricklands had already filed to fun for a different office, they could not legally change their minds and run for Congress. And since Gallegly had already filed his papers, he could not legally back out and have his name stricken from the ballot. It the end, Gallegly changed his mind, ran again and was easily re-elected.

This time around, there is inevitable speculation that Gallegly might follow through and actually retire — but not make an announcement ahead of time. That would force the hand of the Stricklands, who would have to file by 5 p.m. March 7 in order for Tony to run for the state Senate and for Audra to run for re-election.

The confusion in 2006 stirred the Legislature to pass what some have dubbed "Elton's law" -- a change in the Elections Code that extends the candidate-filing period for a week if an incumbent member of Congress does not file for re-election. That means that in 2008, if Gallegly chose to retire at the very last minute he would make it impossible for either of the Stricklands to run for the office. It would then be possible for a successor more to his liking to step forward and file candidacy papers the following week.

Tony Strickland will not have the luxury of waiting, because the office he is seeking -- that now held by Sen. Tom McClintock -- would not have an extended filing period. The extension does not apply in cases in which the incumbent is disqualified by term limits from seeking re-election.

The bottom line is that all three — and some other potential candidates as well -- could find themselves waiting around the county Elections Division office on March 7 waiting to see what the others will do. They would also have to have a battalion of supporters standing by to sign their candidacy papers.

Of course, Gallegly could put an end to the suspense by filing his candidacy papers early. But the congressman might relish the idea of keeping everyone else guessing.

A standing-room only crowd turned out in Sacramento today to listen to a panel discussion featuring what passes for an all-star crowd in the state capital: Pete Wilson, Willie Brown, John Burton, Jim Brulte and Fabian Nuñez.

The event was sponsored by the Public Policy Institute of California, and the subject was "Restoring Confidence in the Legislative Process." It was timed to coincide with the release of a new PPIC publication on legislative reform.

Every person on the panel, Republicans and Democrats, said they believe that lengthening term limits would improve the legislative process. Perhaps the best justification for this belief was offered by Brulte, the former Republican Senate leader. He noted that everyone in his generation understands why only Richard Nixon was positioned to restore U.S. relations with China: because throughout his career he had established himself as a tough crusader against communism.

Under term limits, Brulte said, no legislator in California is around long enough to build up sufficient trust with constituents to take bold action. "You have to be around long enough to establish your bona fides with constituents so you can say no to them."

What that means is that no California legislator today has enough credibility with liberals to say, for instance, that conditions in a given school district have deteriorated so badly that it makes sense to experiment with private-school vouchers. And that no legislator today has enough credibility with conservatives to say that the state's financial condition is so grave that it makes sense to enact a temporary tax increase.

The best leaders, Brulte said, are the ones who can occasionally say no to their friends.

Over the weekend in San Diego, Paul Chatman of Oxnard was installed as president of the California School Boards Association -- and got an unexpected visit from Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The governor, taking advantage of the fact most of the leaders of the statewide Education Coalition were at the conference, made a hastily arranged visit to meet privately for more than an hour with Chatman and the heads of other education groups. Although he brought with him bad news about the 2008-'09 budget, Chatman said it was a positive thing that he chose to open a dialogue.

It means that this year, leaders of the Education Coalition will not have to listen to January's State of the State address to hear for the first time what the governor has in mind for education. When that happens, Chatman said, "everybody is in defensive mode."

One thing they will not hear in January, Chatman said, is Schwarzenegger following through on his previous promise to make 2008 "the year of education reform." Circumstances have changed as tax receipts have fallen below expectations and the state is facing a budget shortfall of at least $10 billion.

"He acknowledged that 'the year of education reform' will not happen because of the finances," Chatman told me Monday.