A new Public Policy Institute of California poll released today shows a wide gender gap among California Democrats — a gap on the order of the one that has shown itself in recent general elections.
If you add the votes of Barack Obama, John Edwards and (the recently withdrawn) Dennis Kucinich, the three men are carrying male Democrats 51 percent to 35 percent over Hillary Clinton. But Clinton alone captures 48 percent of the female vote, while the three men combined attract only 38 percent of Democratic women.
Pollster Mark Baldassare told me today that the Democratic gender gap is the most striking finding in the new poll: "It's incredible."
The findings raise an interesting question: If Clinton is the nominee, how much of the Democratic male vote will she be able to capture in November?
The fact is, if only men could vote, California might well be a red state. According to exit polls, for instance, Republican Bill Simon beat Democrat Gray Davis among men in their race for governor in 2002. Davis' entire margin of victory was supplied by women.
Since women are the source of the Democratic advantage in California, it's hard to imagine that having a woman on the ballot would substantially increase that already large edge. The bottom line, in California and elsewhere, is that a close election in the fall could be decided by whether the Democratic candidate's gender has any impact on the votes of independent and Democratic men.
Speaking as a Republican female, it is hard to get excited about some of the Republican candidates because there is such an effort to lock Republican women out of the equation. Stuffing envelopes isn't enough yet that is all that is offered. The Dems do a better job reaching out to all but I don't agree with much of the philosophy. Sooo, I will wait and I will vote for the best candidate and the best issue per my Republican values. Sometimes this means I cross party lines - it kills me - but integrity trumps Party every time.
For instance, in the upcoming Assembly race - who would better represent me in Sacramento? Audra or Ferial Masry? What about the gaming propositions - there is alot of pressure to vote Yes but I'm leaning No. And the term limits on 93? I'd have to say Yes on 93 because I don't like my options. So I kind of feel forced to vote with unions and with Dems because I'm not given a good choice. I think most women feel this way and the Republican party better start smelling the coffee.
The New America Foundation did a study on the profile of the Undeclared/independent voter.
Amongst their findings, independent voters are:
60% men to 40% women,
younger,
better educated- more college graduates,
environmentalists,
very "techy" oriented - computer savvy,
want the border secured but other than that are
willing to accept less goverment and less services provided by government
Sounds like the swing vote leans to male centrist McCain or male youthful candidate of hope Obama...
Your house is valueble for me. Thanks!?