Overnight tracking polls for an election more than four months away don't mean much, but California Republican candidates for Congress and the Legislature must have shuddered a bit this week with the release of the first public presidential poll conducted after John McCain's call to lift the moratorium on oil drilling off the California coast.

A Rasmussen poll conducted June 23 showed Barack Obama with an eye-popping 28 percentage-point lead in the state, 58 percent to 30 percent. The advantage was much higher than previous state polls, which showed Obama leads ranging from 7 to 17 points.

It could have been a goofy result, or it could reflect state voters' first-blush reaction to McCain's decision to thumb his nose at what has been a bedrock political position in California. The only two GOP candidates to win statewide office since 1990 -- Pete Wilson and Arnold Schwarzenegger -- made opposition to offshore oil a cornerstone of their environmental platforms. And in 2002, the ultra-conservative Bill Simon bragged in his campaign for governor that he was tougher on offshore oil drilling than Democrat Gray Davis.

Nationwide polls show that, politically, McCain's position makes sense because it is supported by a majority of heartland voters who are frustrated over high gas prices.

But somewhere in McCain's calculation must have been the recognition that his reversal on the oil-drilling moratorium would further hurt him in California.

He was likely not going to win the state under any circumstance. But the larger the margin for Obama in the state, the harder it will be for Republicans in tough races -- Congressmen Brian Bilbrae and David Dreier, for instance -- to hold onto their seats.

Elections officials in Ventura County are down to just a relative handful of votes -- about 1,000 provisional ballots whose validity will be determined within a couple days -- before closing the books on the June 5 election.

The tally shows that two predictions about the Part II primary (presidential primary in February, another for all the other partisan offices in June) proved to be true:

1) Turnout was abysmal, although not quite as bad as many had forecast. Thirty percent of registered voters cast ballots, although their participation rates varied wildly by party affiliation or lack thereof. Thirty-five percent of Republicans voted, 31 percent of Democrats, 25 percent of Libertarians and 19 percent of Greens. Most notable in their absence were unaffiliated voters, those who decline to state a party preference. Of 73,656 voters in that category, slightly less than 10 percent actually voted.

In one respect, that makes sense: Since they don't profess an interest in a party, why should they participate in selecting the parties' nominees? You pick your candidates, these non-voters seem to be saying, and we'll sort them out in the fall. On the other hand, both major parties allowed decline-to-state voters to request a partisan ballot and participate in the nominating process. One would think that more of them would show an interest in helping to pick the candidates.

2) Nearly 60 percent of all those who voted did so by mail. It shows again that the more convenient that government makes the process, the more likely people are to participate.

Finally, there were some interesting numbers to contemplate in the build-up to this fall's huge Senate race in the 19th District, pitting Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson against Republican Tony Strickland.

The total numbers were just about exactly what anyone should have expected. Strickland got 52 percent of all the votes cast districtwide. Given that Republicans have a 2 percentage-point advantage in voter registration and that a higher proportion of GOP voters typically turn out in primaries, a 4 percent margin sounds just about right. No anomalies in that margin to suggest that voters of either party are at this point unhappy with their nominee.

A quick look inside the numbers shows the obvious challenge for both candidates: Strickland won the heaviliy GOP Ventura County portion of the district by 10,000 votes. Jackson won the Democratic-leaning Santa Barbara County portion of the district by 7,000 votes. But -- and here's something to keep in mind come November -- the district also includes a small slice of Los Angeles County -- a Republican stronghold in Santa Clarita in which Strickland got twice as many votes as Jackson. That L.A. County sliver could be decisive in the fall.

Each candidate is going to have to work hardest in the other's territory. And the general election will be decided by two factors: which candidate most of those decline-to-state voters who stayed home for the primary decide to support in November, and which party does the best job of jumping up its voter participation rates in the general election.

Assemblyman Pedro Nava, getting ready to face only token opposition for election to what would be his final term, appears to be thinking ahead to 2010.

Judging from many of the bills he is carrying this year, the Santa Barbara Democrat whose district includes Ventura and much of Oxnard may have his eye on a statewide race for attorney general.

Nava has earned a reputation in the Legislature as a hard worker who focuses on nuts-and-bolts issues such as disaster preparedness and transportation funding. He also, true to his Santa Barbara constituency, has been active in the environmental arena and earned national acclaim last year for authoring a landmark bill to protect the California condor by banning the use of lead ammunition within the condors' range.

This year, Nava has broadened his scope by submitting legislation dealing with juvenile crime, sexually violent predators and internet violence protection.

Nava, as a former prosecutor in Fresno County, has a good resume for a run for attorney general. He also has a favorable political profile for a statewide candidate, having been reared in the Inland Empire, worked and lived in the Central Valley, and established a poltical base along the Central Coast.

The position is likely to become open because incumbent Jerry Brown is widely expected to make a run for governor, his former job, in 2010. No other Democratic legislator has publicly expressed an interest in the post, and the two most likely other candidates -- Los Angeles City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo and San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris -- have some liabilities. In addition, Harris, as a prominent supporter of Barack Obama, could be in line for a federal political post in 2009 if Obama makes it to the White House.

One thing to watch for: How much money will Nava raise and spend in his Assembly re-election campaign? He could reserve most of his money this year and also take in contributions that would apply to his 2008 contribution limits. The surplus could be transferred to a 2010 committee, and contributors who maxed out to his Assembly campaign could chip in again for the attorney general race.

If he were to enter the race, Nava would continue a growing tradition of Ventura-Santa Babara legislators to run for statewide office: Cathie Wright and Tom McClintock in 1994; Brooks Firestone in 1998 (he abandoned his campaign for lieutenant governor and decided instead to run for Congress); McClintock and Jack O'Connell in 2002; McClintock again in 2003; and O'Connell, Tony Strickland, Keith Richman and McClintock again in 2006.

Of that group, only O'Connell, now in the middle of his second term as state superintendent of public instruction, has been successful.

Something to think about as the Ventura County Board of Education embarks on interviews and the selection process to replace outgoing County Superintendent Charles Weis, who is leaving to take the same job in Santa Clara County: Weis is the only countywide elected official who is a Democrat.

The position is nonpartisan, as are all county offices. But for those who are keeping score -- and there are many partisans from both sides who are -- the sheriff, district attorney, treasurer-tax collector, clerk-recorder and assessor are all Republicans.

Whoever is appointed superintendent will have a big leg up in winning the next election for the office, in 2010.

The board has promised to search for the most qualified candidates to interview for the post, and their party affiliation should have little bearing on their qualifications to handle this administrative job.

Still, the question is bound to become something of an elephant in the room during the selection process, as two members of the county board -- Dean Kunicki of Simi Valley and Chris Valenzano of Camarillo -- are also members of the Ventura County Republican Central Committee.

Losing 24th District Democratic congressional candidate Mary Pallant today sent an e-mail to supporters and the press vowing to carry on with her efforts to promote the "progressive" agenda, including a pledge to work for the election of Barack Obama.

The e-mail prompted me to think more about Marta Jorgensen's surprise victory in last Tuesday's Democratic primary. Most observers believe, and I concur, that the biggest single factor was Jorgensen's superior ballot designation -- "Educator."

But can that make all the difference?

Most, but not all. First off, Jorgensen was the only candidate from Santa Barbara County and she carried that portion of the district by a large margin -- 55 percent in a three-person race. So geography played a role, too.

Second, Pallant and fellow Ventura County candidate Jill Martinez each did a conscientious job of campaigning in Ventura County. They showed up all the forums, courted local Democratic activists and all the other things that candidates ought to do. Because they both did that, they basically split the vote of those Democratic voters in Ventura County who were paying attention. Together, they got about 56 percent of the vote in the county.

But Jorgensen clearly won the large majority of those voters who knew only what they read on the ballot -- the short, occupational descriptions of each of the candidates.

So Jorgensen benefitted also by the numbers. A good ballot designation may not be enough to win a two-candidate primary, but it can be decisive in a multi-candidate primary.

Ballot designation is much more important in a primary than in a general election. The biggest X-factor in a general election is the top of the ticket. If a Republican candidate runs well at the top of the ticket, other Republicans will generally do well, and vice versa.
That's because the more important clue to casual voters in a general election is not the ballot designation, but the party affiliation of the candidates. They usually know something about the candidates for president of governor, and their decision in those races often guides their votes in races in which they are unfamiliar with the candidates.

Throughout 2007, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had no more loyal or hard-working supporter in California than former Assemblyman Tony Strickland of Moorpark.

Strickland organized fundraisers, recruited volunteers, served as co-chair of the Romney California campaign, even flew to the East Coast to participate in a high-profile phone-bank operation to raise money for Romney.

Now Romney is about to return the favor. He is scheduled to headline a June 17 fundraiser for Strickland's state Senate campaign in Westlake Village. Strickland, who has already raised more than $1 million, told me last week he expects to take in $200,000 from the event.

In anticipation of the most competitive partisan political campaign Ventura County has seen in more than 20 years, partisans on both sides were watching Tuesday's results to see which of two unopposed candidates got the most votes.

It is a meaningless number, since at least two and a half times as many voters will participate in November's election as voted yesterday, but still... It's something to talk about.

So here's what happened:

Republican state Senate candidate Tony Strickland pulled in 50,756 votes.
Democratic state Senate candidate Hannah-Beth Jackson got 47,825.

Advantage Strickland?

Republican Central Committee Chairman Mike Osborn thinks so. "Last night sends a message," Osborn told me this afternoon. "Tony's showing yesterday is going to cut off some of the money Hannah-Beth was expecting."

What it shows is that turnout ran about according to registration, but -- as is typically the case in low-turnout elections, Republicans voted a little more reliably than Democrats. Republicans hold a 2 percentage-point edge in the district, and Strickland got about 3 percent more of the combined Republican and Democratic votes.

In November, there will be a lot more Republicans and Democrats casting ballots -- and a whole lot more independents.

"You saw her strong support, you saw our strong support," Osborn said. "I think my guy will win over more independents."

For comparison, consider that in 2004 -- a higher turnout primary -- 169,765 votes were cast in the district in June. That November -- likely a lower turnout general election that this year's will be -- 384,450 ballots were cast.

There will be a lot of waiting for very few results on one of the least sexy election nights in California history -- a Part II primary with no statewide races on the top of the ticket. So, as you sit around tonight waiting so see whether Supervisor John Flynn has won yet another term as Ventura County supervisor, or which of two Democrats will win the right to engage in a long-shot battle against Republican Congressman Elton Gallegly in November (oops, that's right, you have to watch first to see if Gallegly survives another Quixotic primary challenge tonight, too), here are some things to keep your eyes on:

1) Do local Democrats reward persistence? In the 37th Assembly District, Ferial Masry is seeking to become the party's candidate for the third straight time and in the 24th Congressional District Jill Martinez is seeking her second candidacy. Will the exposure they received from their previous attempts be enough to ward off first-time challengers David Hare and Mary Pallant, respectively? If Hare or Pallant or both win, it will mean they did an excellent job of organization and making grassroots voter contacts.

2) Will Oxnard and Port Hueneme play a significant role in picking their next state senator? Former Assemblywoman Fran Pavley is the favorite to win a high-profile Democratic primary for the 23rd Senate District, in part because so much of the district is part of the territory she represented in the Assembly. Her opponent, Assemblyman Lloyd Levine, is strong and the San Fernando Valley and other parts of Los Angeles County. Ventura County voters account for about 15 percent of the district total. Watch to see if there's a significant difference between the results in the Ventura and Los Angeles portions of the district.

3) Who votes? Much has been made about the fact that Democrats this spring passed Republicans to retake the lead among registered voters in Ventura County. But registering is one thing; actually voting is another. Republicans typically vote much more predictably, especially in low-profile elections. The 19th Senate District, which covers more of the county than anything else on the ballot, will be the best test. Republican Tony Strickland and Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson are each uncontested in their respective primaries. It will be interesting to see which receives the highest number of votes, both districtwide and in Ventura County. It will say something about the real significance of that new Democratic plurality.

4. What's of interest elsewhere around the state? Folks in Ventura County will surely want to check out returns from the 4th Congressional District Republican primary, where their state senator Tom McClintock is running against former Congressman Doug Ose. It's been one of the nastiest, most contentious primaries in the state this spring.

You also might check out the 3rd state Senate District in San Francisco and Marin County. That's where incumbent Democrat Carole Migden faces an unusual primary challenge from Assemblyman Mark Leno and former Assemblyman Joe Nation. If one of the challengers wins, that could weaken the unwritten law against challenging an incumbent in the primary. And if Leno wins, it's likely he will have been aided by the state Supreme Court decision legalizing same-sex marriages. Leno's chief distinction in the Legislature has been to twice author a bill -- twice vetoed -- to put same-sex marriages in the lawbook.

Republicans will want to watch the 37th state Senate District primary in Palm Springs. That one also pits a sitting assemblyman, John Benoit, against a former assemblyman, Russ Bogh. How it turns out could show the power of public safety unions in GOP primaries. Although Benoit is a former California Highway Patrol officer, Bogh has benefitted from heavy independent spending by law enforcement labor unions.

The latest voter registration report, released by the secretary of state on Friday, shows that the surge in Democratic registration continues in Ventura County. There are now 4,123 more Democrats than Republicans on the county's voter roll -- a dramatic shift, given that when registration closed for the Feb. 5 presidential primary Republicans still held a slim advantage.

I was curious whether this political shift was concentrated in any specific areas in the county or whether it was an across-the-board phenomenon, so I checked the city-by-city reports from four years ago and compared them to where things stand today.

The data show that Democrats have made gains in each of the county's 10 cities, but that the biggest shifts have come in western Ventura County. The largest gains have come in Ojai (8.9 point increase), Port Hueneme (8.2 points), Ventura (7.4 points) and Oxnard (7.2 points).

Arguably the biggest shift has been in Ventura, which four years ago was a city that was essentially split down the middle politically -- 40.1 percent Democratic, 39.3 percent Republican. Ventura has now become a solid blue city, with 42.8 percent of its voters Democrats and 34.6 percent Republicans.

The shifts in eastern Ventura County have been in the same direction but slightly less dramatic. The Republican edge in Thousand Oaks has dropped by 5.7 percentage points, from an an 18.1 point advantage in 2004 to a 12.4 point edge today. In Moorpark, the GOP edge has diminished by 5.4 percentage points, in Camarillo by 4.9 points and in Simi Valley by 3.4 points.

Two things haven't changed: The most Democratic city in the county remains Santa Paula (30.6-point Democratic edge) and the most Republican city remains Simi Valley (15.2-point GOP advantage).