July 2008 Archives

Drilling into PPIC survey

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The headlines on today's Public Policy Institute of California survey focus on the striking finding that Californians' views on offshore oil drilling have shifted to the point where a slim majority (51 percent) now support more drilling.

That could be good news for Republicans, from John McCain to members of Congress, who hope to use the issue to their benefit in November.

But other portions of the survey show that traditional Democratic issues remain very popular with voters. For instance, voters strongly favor tougher air pollution regulations on cars, agricultural and commercial enterprises, port activities and diesel engines -- all ideas that Democrats in the Legislature have supported and Republicans opposed.

And then there's the new measure of where voters stand on the presidential election: 50 percent prefer Barack Obama, 35 percent prefer McCain. As for the current president, his appoval rating among Californians is at an anemic 26 percent.

And on the issue of global warming, Californians firmly believe it's time to act. Eighty percent say steps should be taken right away to address climate change, 64 percent believe the effects of global warming are already being felt, and 81 percent believe local governments should be encouraged to change their land-use policies in an effort to make it possible for people to drive less.

Also on global warming, there is evidence as to why former Assemblywoman Fran Pavley of Agoura Hills won such a landslide victory in June in her Democratic primary against incumbent Assemblyman Lloyd Levine of Van Nuys. Pavley wrote California's first landmark global warming law in 2002 -- the one that requires automakers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from cars and trucks.

The PPIC has polled on that policy every summer since 2003 and support for Pavley's law is exactly as strong now as it was five years ago: 81 percent

From Simi to St. Paul

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Former Secretary of State Bill Jones -- head of the state's delegation to the Republican National Convention and a supporter of John McCain dating back to his 2000 campaign -- today announced the 173-member delegation to Minneapolis.

The three delegates from Ventura County's 24th Congressional District will be Ventura City Councilman Neal Andrews and former Santa Barbara County Supervisor Mike Stoker -- who were on McCain's delegate slate on the February primary ballot. New to the list in Simi Valley City Councilman Glen Becerra, who was a backer of Rudi Giuliani in February.

The alternates will be Supervisor Peter Foy of Simi Valley, longtime GOP activist Dianne Alexander of Thousand Oaks (who chaired Giuliani's campaign in the county) and Dean Graham.

The California delegation will be the largest delegation to the GOP convention.

Growing up politically

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Ventura County has forever been something of a political backwater -- a place where long-established old-boy networks still exert powerful influence, where shaking hands and knocking on doors still matters more than paid campaign advertising, and when advertising does play a role, mail is the only medium that matters.

There are signs that the upcoming 19th Senate District battle royale between Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson and Republican Tony Strickland could change the county's political culture going forward.

Under the direction of chairman Mike Osborn, for instance, the Ventura County Republican Central Committee has moved beyond being a debating society and become a bare-knuckles operation with an intense focus on winning campaigns. The committee's success in landing a $50,000 contribution from Altria earlier this year may have generated controversy over the role of tobacco money in campaigns, but it also put real money in the bank and put Democrats on notice that local Republicans intend to be ultra-aggressive in raising money to promote their candidates.

On the Democratic side, two sharp, professional activists have given their party a boost with the creation of an organization called Vote Blue Central Coast that played a significant role in registering the new voters who this year gave Democrats a plurality of registered voters in the county for the first time in a generation. Of equal significance, Helen Conly and Sue Broidy have helped to establish among Democrats a cross-county sense of unity between Ventura and Santa Barbara counties. That's important because both of the county's congressional districts and the critical 19th Senate District encompass large chunks of both counties.

Now Conly and Brody have teamed to create an intelligent, clean -- and, assuredly, ideologically liberal -- blog called Political Watch Central Coast.

They tell me in an e-mail that their goal is "to build a regional approach to discussion, education and political issues with a progressive slant... We will speak liberally, factually, respectfully and forcefully about candidates and issues."

Combine that with Brian Dennert's folksy, newsy blog and Steve Frank's relentlessly conservative, red-meat blog here at VenturaCountyStar.com, and you've got a pretty diverse, lively mix of online forums for political activism.

It's yet another sign that Ventura County politics may be moving beyond its backwater stage.

Preview of coming attractions

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The semi-annual campaign fund-raising reports for political candidates must be submitted at the end of the month, but a late contribution report filed last week by Republican Senate candidate Tony Strickland gives a significant preview of coming attractions.

On June 30 -- the final day of the reporting period -- the state Republican Party contributed $595,000 to the Strickland campaign. On the same day, the Monterey County Republican Central Committee chipped in $15,000.

In addition, a press release from the Strickland campaign reported that the former Assemblyman's Westlake Village fund-raiser featuring former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney brought in about $250,000.

Add it all together, and Strickland's total fund-raising through June 30 could approach $3 million.

Meanwhile, the state Democratic Party has been slow to begin committing money to legislative candidates, including the party's nominee in the 19th Senate District, former Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson.

Bottom line: Expect the July 31 reports to show Strickland with an impressive bank account and a significant lead over Jackson in campaign cash. The gap will almost certainly tighten as the campaign unfolds, but Strickland's early money gives him in advantage in planning and executing his strategy.

Obama's organizational reach

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There are two main reasons why Barack Obama is the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee: the ability to attract new faces to the political process, and his campaign's organizational skill at putting those new faces productively to work.

Here's an example: Tom Mullens of Thousand Oaks is a Vietnam veteran who became engaged in politics just four years ago, inspired by the candidacy of fellow Vietnam vet John Kerry. I first met him four years ago this month when he was gearing up to show his support for Kerry by driving his motorcycle from the Santa Monica Pier to the Democratic National Convention in Boston.

Mullens has stayed involved. He infomed me in an e-mail today that the Obama campaign asked him if he would help put together a statewide "Veterans for Obama" group. Mullens reports that he made a few calls, and then was tapped by the national campaign yesterday to become co-chairman of California Veterans for Obama.

"Amazing how far a motorcycle will take you," Mullens wrote.

It was the second grassroots example in two weeks I've seen of the Obama camp's skill in empowering volunteers.

Two weeks ago I had received an e-mail from the campaign announcing that volunteers would be hosting thousands of Saturday house parties across the country. I thought very little of it until that Saturday morning when I found a green index card tucked under my doormat inviting members of my household to an Obama house party taking place one street over. That told me two things: The Obama campaign was organized enough to get professionally printed invitation-cards in the hands of volunteers who agreed to host house parties, and also organized enough to provide those volunteers with lists of registered Democrats in their neighborhoods (my college-age son is one).

Because of his demonstrated appeal to young voters, Obama will have no shortage of enthusiastic volunteers during the general election campaign. The challenge will be to put them usefully to work. The campaign did that effectively during the primaries, especially in Iowa, and early indications are that it is ready to repeat that effort in the fall.

Decision time for Jack?

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The decision by San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom this week to open an exploratory committee for a potential campaign for governor in 2010 puts some pressure on other potential candidates to make their decisions sooner rather than later.

Among them is former Ventura County legislator Jack O'Connell, now the state superintendent of public instruction. O'Connell will be termed out of his current job in 2010 and has publicly said the only other office he is considering is governor.

It would be a long-shot campaign, given that other likely candidates are better known around the state, especially Attorney General Jerry Brown, who served two terms as governor from 1975 to 1982 and is the son of a former governor. Brown has all but declared his intention to run and because of his statewide identity is seen as the early favorite.

To compete with the likes of Brown, O'Connell would need to be confident of his ability to raise millions of dollars for a primary campaign. That will surely be the determining factor in O'Connell's decision. He already has a network of ground-level support in the education community around the state and a proven record as a tireless, effective campaigner. But without sufficient financing, those two assets would not be enough.

Because Newsom formed his committee on July 1 -- the day after the close of the semi-annual campaign finance reporting period -- he will not have to make public his financial contributions until February 2009. Because of that, other candidates will not have the luxury of waiting to see how well Newsome's candidacy is received by donors.

95 percent accurate
Over the last 25 presidential elections, Ventura County voters have backed the winner 24 times, or over 95 percent of the time. It is one of only a handful of counties in the nation that has been such a predictable bellwether.
about Timm Herdt
Timm Herdt
The Ventura County Star's Sacramento Bureau Chief Timm Herdt on state issues and politics from Sacramento to Ventura County. He can be contacted at therdt@vcstar.com
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