Forget Joe the Plumber. The dominant voter in Tuesday's presidential election will be Sally the Single Mom, or so says former Clinton pollster Stan Greenberg in an interesting new polling analysis released by his company.

Unmarried women make up 26 percent of the voting age population in America, he writes, and have always before voted in disproportionately small numbers. Evidence from this year's primary elections, early voting returns and polling results suggest that will not be the case this year. That's good news for Barack Obama, because unmarried women back him by nearly 30 percent over John McCain. Among married women, the presidential candidates are tied.

The Obama tilt among unmarried women is most pronounced among college-age women, young single moms and minority women. But it applies even to white women who are senior citizens. It suggests the power of the economy as the election's driving issue: unmarried women are typically among those most hurt by economic downturns. They are also among the most concerned about the nation's healthcare crisis and the soaring numbers of uninsured.

I personally haven't had the chance for a week or so to total the resources devoted to the 19th Senate District campaign, but a political consultant who has been closely tracking the race on behalf of a Sacramento interest group has provided me with new figures that show the race topped the $10 million mark yesterday.

Combining the amounts that Republican Tony Strickland and Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson have raised, plus the amount of independent expenditures, the grand total as of this morning is $10,197,105.

Broken down, it's $5.4 million for Strickland and $4.8 million for Jackson.

For some perspective, $10 million would be enough to build a very nice new elementary school, or to fund an endowment that could permanently hire three professors at CSU Channel Islands...

I'm told that incoming state Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg is going all out to ensure that 19th state Senate District Democratic candidate Hannah-Beth Jackson closes her campaign with an impressive get-out-the-vote effort.

More than 120 Senate staff workers, on leave from their state jobs, are being dispatched to Ventura to assist in a door-knocking blitz over the weekend.

The reason so many are coming to Ventura County? There is literally no other district in the state where the services of campaign workers are needed.

For voters in Ventura County who are curious about some of these groups with the pleasant-sounding names -- the "California Alliance" or the "California Alliance for Progress and Education," for instance -- that are suddenly sending a lot of campaign mail, here's a good place to go for answers: the state Fair Political Practices Commission independent expenditure database.

If you click on the "Senate races", the site details all the special-interest spending in the 19th state Senate District. Then, if you want to know who these groups are, click on "IE Committees & Donors" to discover who's financing these campaigns.

You might be surprised to learn how much an interest that trial lawyers and the pharmaceutical industry are taking in you these days.

By now, voters are well accustomed to messages telling them to vote yes or no on a variety of issues -- Proposition 2, Proposition 4, Proposition 8, Proposition 10, etc.

But when they elect a representative, their choice isn't yes or no, but between two individuals.

You wouldn't know that by reading the mailers sent out in recent days by the California Democratic Party in Ventura County's 37th Assembly District. The pieces rip into Republican Assemblywoman Audra Strickland -- the most recent one focusing on her votes against raising the minumum wage -- and conclude with a curious message: "Vote No on Audra Strickland on Election Day."

Nowhere is there a mention of Democrat Ferial Masry.

If one didn't know better, one might think these mailers are intended just as much to tarnish the Senate candidacy of her husband, Tony, as they are to promote Masry's election.

In an extraordinary move, proponents of Prop. 8, the initiative that would ban same-sex marriages in California, today challenged opponents to a weekend debate over the question of whether schools would have to teach about same-sex marriages if the measure fails.

The Yes campaign specifically cites the television ad featuring Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell as the reason for proposing the debate.

That can only mean one thing: The O'Connell ad must be moving voters on the issue.

"As you know, one of the central issues in the Proposition 8 debate is whether gay marriage will be taught to California school children should the measure fail to be enacted," the Yes campaign's letter says. "Your campaign has accused the ProtectMarriage.com - Yes on 8 campaign of lying to voters about the measure's impact on public education. You are currently airing television and radio ads featuring Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell specifically denying that Proposition 8 has any impact on schools and accusing us of running a 'shameful' campaign."

The response from the No side -- a flat rejection -- is equally telling about its view of the effectiveness of the O'Connell ad.

"It would be a disservice to the people of California to debate an issue that is completely unrelated to Proposition 8," reads the response. It notes that many state education officials have agreed with O'Connell's assessment.

"The only debate worth having in California is why you have pursued such a deceptive campaign strategy. That debate is one you can conduct alone -- with your conscience."

Although election workers in Ventura and Los Angeles counties are still counting a few more new registrations tonight, the almost-final voter registration report shows that Democrats have caught and surpassed Republicans in the 19th Senate District.

This is a district in which Republicans held a 25,000-voter advantage in registration just four years ago.

The numbers: 202,648 Democrats, 201,589 Republicans -- a 1,059-voter advantage for Democrats.

Since the most recent, Sept. 5 report there have been about 30,000 new partisan registrations in the district. New Democrats have outnumbered new Republicans by a 2-to-1 ratio.

UPDATED TO REFLECT ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION REPORT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

Democrats in the 37th Assembly District may be having a sense of deja vu. Back in 1998, when the district was open, the state party waited until the final days of October to pump $200,000 into the campaign of Roz McGrath. It was too late. McGrath lost by 1,300 votes to a 28-year-old Republican named Tony Strickland.

Now the state Democratic Party has decided -- again, very late in the game -- to pay attention to the district once more. Over the last two days it has put $140,000 into Ferial Masry's campaign to challenge Republican incumbent Audra Strickland. That is on top of $26,000 last week, bringing the total party support for Masry since Oct. 22 to more than $166,000.

There must be a sense that a so-called "surge election" in which Democrats gain from a big California victory by Barack Obama could dramatically swing other partisan races that wouldn't otherwise be close. Audra Strickland, after all, has defeated Masry twice before in the same district, by 14 percentage points in 2004 and 15 points in 2005.

By all rights, this election shouldn't be close. Either state Democrats sense something is in the works, or they just spent $166,000 on a hope and a hunch.

We commented here last week on a mailer sent to county Republican voters to remind them that 19th Senate District candidate Tony Strickland is a Republican, and how that step was necessary because nowhere in his own advertising does Strickland mention his political party.

Well, Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson has taken the same tact in her advertising, and now I've seen the mailer to Democratic voters designed to make sure they know that she's the one on their team.

Jackson's mailer features her photo side-by-side with Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, with the headline: "Help me change California."

Inside, the mailer is none too subtle in its partisan references. "Vote Democratic!" it screams. "Hannah-Beth Jackson Democrat for State Senate." Just to complete the comparison, it tells readers, "Republican Tony Strickland. Just as bad as Bush."

It looks like we're into the "partisans, come home," phase of a campaign that to date has been dominated by appeals to independents.

The outcome of the 19th District state Senate race in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties will be determined by two factors: Can Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson drive up the Democratic vote in Santa Barbara County? And can Republican Tony Strickland maximize the Republicans' voter registration advantage in Ventura County?

Here's a noteworthy development regarding that first factor: According to the University of California Student Association, the No. 1 campus in the country in new voter registrations this fall is ... UC Santa Barbara.

The UC Students Vote! nonpartisan registration project claims that the UC Santa Barbara campus registered 10,266 new voters, topping UC Berkeley at 9,822.

A week before Election Day, there are a half-dozen toss-up races for the U.S. Senate, races whose outcome could decide whether Democrats take a filibuster-proof majority. They are very big deals.

But in terms of expense, a couple are not very much bigger than the 19th state Senate District campaign in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.

So far, Republican Tony Strickland and Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson have combined to raise about $7.1 million for the local campaign. That's on par with what the two candidates in a pitched contest for a U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi have raised ($7.2 million). Both local candidates have raised more than Mississippi Democrat Ronnie Musgrove, who is leading slightly in the polls against incumbent Republican Roger Wicker.

The 19th District campaign is also in the ballpark with the Alaska U.S. Senate campaign, where incumbent Republican Ted Stevens and Democratic challenger Mark Begich have combined to raise $8.5 million. Strickland on his own has outraised Begich, $4.3 million to $3.5 million.

During a year when "Saturday Night Live" got record-breaking ratings for its Sarah Palin guest appearance, Dave Letterman made headlines for his comedic rant over being stood up by John McCain, and Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert are teaming up for election night coverage on Comedy Central, it appears there's a large segment of the public that has a sense of humor about politics.

If so, Democratic state Senate candidate Hannah-Beth Jackson is trying to tap into that sense of humor on the local level.

Earlier in the campaign, Jackson sent out a comic-book style mailer and aired a cartoon-style television ad about Republican opponent Tony Strickland called "Tony Strickland and friends" that features cartoon characters of gasoline pumps, cigarettes and hospital equipment to illustrate how Strickland accepted money from special interest groups and then voted in their interests.

Now Jackson is using humor as a form of defense. This week she sent out a mailer with a comic-book cover that features a woman reading a newspaper with the provocative headline, "Hannah-Beth Jackson kidnaps Elvis!!"

Open it, and the text explains how opponents have "been making some pretty wild charges" about Jackson. On the back page, poking fun at her opposition's assertion that she would support increasing taxes on everything and anything, a man is shown reading a newspaper with the headline, "Jackson voted to tax puppies!"

Given the intense competition for a voter's attention during that brief time between picking up the mail and either bringing it in the house or dropping it in the recycling, perhaps a little humor could be just the thing to make an impression.

The advertising battle over Proposition 8, the proposed same-sex marriage ban, has hinged in recent days around proponents' assertions that unless their initiative passes schools will be forced to teach children about same-sex marriages.

To rebut that, the No side called in the state's top elected education official, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell, the former Ventura County legislator.

O'Connell appears in a TV ad, saying: "Prop. 8 has nothing to do with schools ... Our schools aren't required to teach anything about marriage."

The Yes side counters by saying the vast majority of schools, although not required to do so by the state, do teach about marriage as part of their comprehensive sex education curriculum.

For San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, there must be a certain irony about the television advertising campaigns over Prop. 8. Newsom, by allowing same-sex marriages to take place in his city, became the symbolic champion of the movement. But now that the debate is being waged on the airways, it is Newsom who has become the star of the Yes side's commercials, which feature his taunting declaration that legalized same-sex marriage is "going to happen whether you like it or not."

Newsom clearly hoped his prominence on the issue would give him a leg up among Democratic voters should he decide to seek his party's nomination for governor in 2010. Now it is O'Connell, one of his potential opponents in the Democratic primary, who has been thrust into a leading role in the campaign.

Over the last 24 hours, indedpendent expenditure groups have reported dropping $190,000 into the 19th Senate District race in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties -- all of it on behalf of Republican Tony Strickland.

The most recent entry into the field is the prison guards' union -- the California Correctional Peace Officers Association -- which plunked down $46,000 for a mailer. That's enough for a phonebook-sized mailer.

It takes a lot of work and grief to put together a candidate's forum, and for that the League of Women Voters of Ventura County and the Ventura Chamber of Commerce PAC should be commended for organizing forums this fall featuring 19th District Senate candidates Tony Strickland and Hannah-Beth Jackson.

Here's how to reward their good work: Watch.

The forums are now available for online viewing at Caps-TV. Check it out.

That free-wheeling 19th District state Senate race should provide a boon to Ventura County's hospitality industry over the next dozen days. Democratic and Republican state Senate staffers, who take leaves of absense at this time every election year, have emptied the Capitol, packed their cars and headed to Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.

They will be out in force knocking on doors and making phone calls throughy Election Day.

If you see them walking precincts, you'll know them by the smiles on their faces. Since they are sent to wherever the action is, there have been election years when they've been dispatched to Bakersfield or Stockton. They know they are blessed that circumstances took them this year to such a pleasant part of the state.

Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, a national co-chair of the McCain-Palin campaign and a potential 2010 Republican contender for governor of California, this week contributed $250,000 to the campaign to defeat Proposition 5, the measure designed to expand drug treatment and rehabilitation programs for nonviolent drug offenders.

Whitman wrote the check after a meeting Tuesday in Orange County with a half dozen of the state's top law enforcement managers, including Ventura County Sheriff Bob Brooks and District Attorney Greg Totten.

"We appreciated her interest," Brooks said. "She had been contacted previously and expressed an interest in the issue."

The measure is strongly opposed by law enforcement officials, who assert it could allow those accused of other crimes to escape incarceration if drug use is also involved.

Whitman, who amassed a personal fortune at eBay, is following a familar path of wealthy candidates testing the political waters by getting involved in an initiative campaign. Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, another multimillionaire who has already formed an exploratory committee to run for governor in 2010, made friends in Republican circles this spring by bankrolling opposition to the ballot measure that would have allowed legislators to serve longer in either the Assembly or Senate.

Brooks said it was clear that Whitman had "no expectation of getting anything in return" for her contribution. Still, Whitman did hire a publicist to spread the word to the media about her contribution.

In an election year in which Republican candidates all over the country are dealing with a tarnished party brand-name by neglecting to mention their party affiliation in every communication with voters, there may be a problem: What if loyal Republicans can't figure out which candidate is on their team?

In the 19th Senate District, an independent expenditure group funded by Chevron, Philip Morris, the Chamber of Commerce and others has stepped in to fill the void.

A mailer sent to Republican households in Ventura County yesterday loudly proclaimed that candidate Tony Strickland is "THE REPUBLICAN CHOICE!" Under that headline is a quote from Republican Congressman Elton Gallegly, which is next to a GOP elephant logo that refers to Strickland as a Republican tax fighter, all of which is above a list of endorsements from Republican federal leaders, Republican state leaders, and local Republican leaders.

Got that now, Republicans? Strickland may not be publicly saying so, but he's one of you.

There are interesting signs of activity in Ventura County's 37th Assembly District campaign between Republican incumbent Audra Strickland and Democratic challenger Ferial Masry.

First, Strickland sent out at least three mailers in the last week attacking Masry. Then, today, the California Democratic Party reported a $26,394 contribution to Masry's campaign in the form of mailings. One thing to remember about politics: Candidates and parties don't spend money unless they think there's at least some cause for either concern or hope.

It can't help Audra Strickland that her husband, Tony, has been the target of a $3 million campaign and growing by Democratic state Senate candidate Hannah-Beth Jackson. All those hard-hitting TV ads and mailers targeted at Tony Strickland may have had the effect of weakening not just Tony but the Strickland name as well.

It's also noteworthy that Assembly Majority Leader Alberto Torrico will headline a fundraiser for Masry tonight in Santa Paula.

It's a race to watch for potential future developments.

With state polls showing that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama could win California by 20 percentage points or more, there may be no luckier California Republican this fall than Ventura County Congressman Elton Gallegly.

The Obama effect has created unexpected anxiety for a number of GOP members of Congress in the state who represent what would ordinarily be safe Republican seats. Among those who will at least have to sweat on election night are Dan Lungren, David Dreier, Mary Bono and Brian Bilbray. All have strong Democratic opponents who are waging aggressive campaigns.

Not so with Gallegly, who got a gift from Democratic primary voters when they selected Marta Jorgensen of Solvang as their party's nominee in June. Jorgensen lives in the most remote corner of the congressional district, has hardly ventured in Ventura County (where most of the voters live), has raised only $2,600 and had to fire her campaign manager because she couldn't afford to pay her.

Contrast that with the situation Bilbray faces in San Diego County in the 50th Congressional District, which in many ways is similar to Gallegly's 24th: a suburban, Republican-dominated district in Southern California. Bilbray's district has an even stronger GOP tilt than Gallegly's: an 11-point registration edge, compared to 7 percent.

Yet Bilbray appears to be facing a fight for survival. A poll released last week by the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner research firm showed Bilbray up just 2 percentage points, 44-42, over Democratic challenger Nick Liebham -- a statistical tie, since it is within the poll's margin of error.

Given Gallegly's long tenure and his strong performances in elections over the years, it's likely that he would have won re-election in any event. But because of the circumstances that were handed to him, he is one of the few Republican incumbents from California who has been able to breathe easily this fall.

It must be just two weeks until Election Day, because charges of "election fraud" are flying everywhere. Most of the charges, as usual, are hokum.

Today's example: The California Republican Party alleged that a Democratic voter registration group, the Voter Education and Research Fund, had been "shut down" by the Ventura County registrar of voters for violating the Election Code. The assertion: It had illegally been using people under 18 to circulate voter registration affadavits.

That isn't illegal. The law says that a "deputy registrar of voters" -- in other words, someone who works for a county elections office -- must be 18. It does not prohibit a high school student from passing out registration cards to people who are over 18, collecting them and turning them over to elections officials.

And what about the national issue of ACORN, turning in registration cards of obviously fictitious people, such as "Mickey Mouse"? Well, the law in most states appropriately makes it a felony for someone circulating voter registration cards to throw away any card that has been turned in. Thus, even if the name on the card appears to be phony, the person taking the registration cards must turn it in. He or the group he is working for can flag it as questionable, but the decision to reject it must be made by an elections official. Makes sense.

And how about those cries of "fraud" over a Republican group that allegedly told would-be voters they had to be Republicans to sign an accompanying petition -- thereby getting voters to switch their registration on the spot? That might be deceitful and is illegal, but it can't really affect the outcome of an election. As long as the voter is legally registered, regardless of party, he or she can vote for any candidate on the ballot.

No, the real danger of fraud occurs on Election Day. When voters are turned away from the polls or intimidated or wrongfully challenged, or when people who are not registered to vote are somehow allowed to cast ballots -- that's when the kind of fraud that can sway an election takes place.

If anyone wants to get righteously worked up about "election fraud," let them watch to see what happens on Nov. 4.

When Helen Conly, one of the organizers of the Democratic voter registration group Vote Blue, checked on You Tube today to try to find out more about the man who was arrested in Los Angeles County over the weekend on charges of voter fraud, she recognized the man in the video clip

It turns out, Conly says, that Mark Jacoby is the same fellow who was involved in a brouhaha earlier this month in the parking lot of the Target Store on Main Street in Ventura.

Conly and others in the county have collected 20 affadivits from Ventura County voters who say they were duped into registered as Republicans by workers for Jacoby's company, Young Political Majors. The complaints have been turned over to the District Attorney's Office for investigation.

State Republican Party spokesman Hector Barajas said the party has been paying Jacoby's crew from $7 to $12 for each Republican voter registration they turn in, with the amount varying depending on the districts in which the voters live.

Barajas said the party has taken great pains to ensure that all who register as Republicans do so knowingly. He said the party requires each voter registration affidavit be accompanied by a signed statement from the voter saying the affidavit was obtained without deceit or coercion. In addition, he said, the party has followed up with automated phone calls and postcards that include a message that says if the voter is unaware he or she has registered as a Republican he or she might be a victim of fraud.

Whatever procedural safeguards are set up, however, paying a $7 to $12 bounty for GOP registrations only is an invitation for abuse. Conly notes that when Vote Blue was active last last year and early this year, it paid workers by the hour. The bounty hunting system, she said, "sets you up for fraud."

OK, so that headline doesn't seem very newsworthy. Neverthess, given the relations between Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Republicans in the Legislature, perhaps there was some suspense.

If there was, it's now over. Republican Senate candidate Tony Strickland announced today that he has received Schwarzenegger's endorsement in his 19th District campaign against Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson.

In other news, Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer has endorsed Jackson, the Democratic candidate.

Capitol Alert, the Sacramento Bee's online news service that reports exclusively on the state Capitol, today issued a statistical analysis of the 2008 bills passed by the Legislature and signed or vetoed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Two Ventura County lawmakers are prominent in one category: fewest bills signed into law. Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks and Assemblywoman Audra Strickland of Moorpark had zero. They were tied only with Sen. Ed Vincent of Inglewood, who missed nearly all the 2008 lawmaking session because of illness.

On Monday's deadline to register to vote for the Nov. 4 election, Secretary of State Debra Bowen will be sponsoring a dawn-to-midnight voter-registration fair on the sidewalk across from the state Capitol. Perhaps its chief value will be as a visually interesting place for TV cameras to get live shots as they remind viewers on Monday that this is their last chance to be relevent in the 2008 election.

Bowen also has laid out a useful list of voting do's and don'ts -- something worth passing along for the political activists who read this blog:

DON'T: Offer incentives to voters for agreeing to register to vote or to vote a certain way. This is illegal under state and federal law.

DO: Know that you may still vote even if you have left your home because of a foreclosure. If you have not formed a new permanent residence, you may vote where you were previously registered.

DON'T: Campaign for votes, solicit petition signatures, or wear campaign materials within 100 feet of a polling place. Electioneering in the immediate area around polling places is illegal in California.

DO: Choose whether to vote at a polling place or vote by mail, and vote by 8:00 p.m. on Election Day. Any California voter can vote by mail (formerly known as absentee voting). The deadline to request a vote-by-mail ballot from your county elections office is October 28.

If you prefer the in-person experience, polls will be open between 7 a.m. and 8 p.m. on Nov. 4. If you are in line when the polls close, you will be allowed to vote. If you would rather vote by mail, remember that those ballots also must be turned in by 8 p.m. on Election Day at a polling place in your county or at your county elections office. Postmarks do not count for ballots.

DON'T: Sit on the sidelines during this important election. Consider other ways to get involved in your democracy. Be a poll worker and help make Election Day run smoother for everyone. Host a ballot study group with your neighbors or family. Volunteer for a campaign you believe in, and encourage others to vote.

DO: Know your voting rights and your polling place. If, for any reason, your name is not on the list at your polling place, you have the right to cast a provisional ballot. The provisional ballot will be counted after your county elections office has confirmed that you are registered to vote in your county and you did not already vote elsewhere in that election. If you don't know where your polling place is, or if you have any concerns about your election experience, call your county elections office or the Secretary of State's Voter Hotline at (800) 345-VOTE.

Ask a poll worker for assistance if you don't understand your voting system. And if you make a mistake on your ballot, ask a poll worker for a new ballot.

In an unusually aggressive political move, the Ventura County Deputy Sheriffs Association and the Ventura County Professional Firefighters have put up a combined $75,000 to produce and air a cable television commercial for Democratic Senate candidate Hannah-Beth Jackson.

The local deputies' group put in $50,000, local firefighters $25,000 and the statewide Police Officers Research Association kicked in another $25,000 to pay for the ad.

In it, members of the Deputies Association speak on camera about Jackson's public safety credentials, and the ad concludes: "No one will work harder to protect you, your family and your home."

Independent expenditure committees are increasingly playing a role in the campaign, but this is the first one that is locally based. Most such groups are funded by statewide unions or by large corporations and industry PACs.

One noteworthy observation: Several years ago the Deputy Sheriffs Association sought to recruit Republican Senate candidate Tony Strickland to run for county supervisor. Strickland decided against the idea.

Perhaps my fellow Ventura County political blogger Greg Cole was onto something back in May when he speculated that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney might have political plans in mind when he purchased a beachfront home in La Jolla.

Although a Romney spokesman said at the time the purchase was based mainly on the family's desire to spend more time closer to their horses that are boarded in Ventura County, Cole speculated that the former governor of Massachusetts might be thinking of becoming the future governor of California.

The speculation is becoming more intense. Over the last week I've heard it raised in Sacramento and from someone in Ventura County. The latter source claims to trace the rumor to eavesdropping by someone who works for the Romney family in a nonpolitical capacity.

Inside of three weeks, we've arrived at the stage of political campaigns at which rabid partisans often go off the deep end.

The latest example in California comes from down in Riverside County, where a Republican women's group sent out an e-mail and mailer to members featuring a cartoon image of Barack Obama on a food stamp coupon. The food items most prominently pictured on the coupon: watermelon and fried chicken.

It's got to be seen to be believed. The Riverside Press Enterprise has a story today.

The California Majority Report today reported that the California Republican Party has determined the only other potentially contested Senate District in the race is no longer competitive. As a result, all Democratic and Republican campaign resources for state Senate races will now be directed to the 19th District race in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.

Here's a portion of the report:

Democratic and Republican sources have informed CMR that the GOP has pulled the plug on Assemblymember Greg Aghazarian's bid to replace termed out Democratic Senator Mike Machado in California's 5th Senate District. Aghazarian's Democratic opponent, Assemblymember Lois Wolk, is up around 20 points in internal polling, so Republicans have decided to cut their losses.

For their part, Senate Democrats are confident in a Wolk victory and have shifted their focus to former Assemblymember Hannah-Beth Jackson's bid to replace termed out Senator Tom McClintock in the 19th Senate District. She faces Republican former Assemblymember Tony Strickland...

As if on cue, this afternoon the independent expenditure committee for the California
Real Estate Association PAC reported the purchase of $208,000 in television ads supporting Strickland.

While Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson has wrapped up the endorsements and financial support of nearly every labor union in California, there's one that she has missed. And that one could potentially be big.

The California Correctional Peace Officers Association -- a.k.a. the prison guards' union -- last week endorsed Republican Tony Strickland. This is the group that has started a recall drive against Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, but it's doubtful that all the union's political resources will be devoted to that effort.

In fact, according to a study by the state Fair Political Practices Commission, the Correctional Peace Officers Association has been the fifth-leading source of independent expenditures in California political campaigns since 2001. Over that period, it has spent $3.5 million on independent expenditures involving 30 candidates, with an average expenditure of $114,087.

The union plays both sides, politically speaking, regularly endorsing both Democrats and Republicans. It typically likes to pick winners, so in a close race like the one in the 19th Senate District, it won't be surprising if the union jumps in to try to make sure its favored candidate is victorious.

A second independent expenditure committee has made its presence felt in the 19th District Senate campaign, this one in support of Republican Tony Strickland.

A group called Californians for Jobs $ Education reported spending $25,000 in support of Strickland. Most of the money went for behind-the-scenes efforts such as consulting and research, although it also did fund $500 in "robo-calls" to area voters over the weekend. The consulting and research expenses are indications that additional efforts will be forthcoming -- probably in the form of television or radio advertising or campaign mailers.

The group has not reported contributions since July, but its biggest contributors during the primary election cycle earlier this year were Chevron ($75,000) and Farmers Insurance ($50,000).

There are whispers in Sacramento that outgoing Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata is not exactly chummy with 19th District Democratic candidate Hannah-Beth Jackson. If that's the case, it hasn't been reflected in the state Democratic Party's willingness to help fund her campaign in recent weeks.

Still, there's some evidence that at least three current senators weren't taking any chances. Instead of contributing money to a state party effort at least partly controlled by Perata (and also incoming Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg), these three contributed big bucks from their campaign accounts to the Santa Barbara County Democratic Central Committee.

Through Sept. 30, the county committee contributed $83,000 to the Jackson campaign. In reports filed this week, the source of that money was revealed. The primary contributors are Sens. Sheila Kuehl ($25,000), Alan Lowenthal ($30,200) and Dean Florez ($30,200).

It was difficult to track down the county committee's financial report, because it did not file the report electronically -- although the secretary of state's Web site states, "If a filer has raised or spent a cumulative amount of $50,000 or more, the filer is required to file electronically."

When I called Santa Barbara Democratic Chairman Daraka Larimore-Hall yesterday, he immediately arranged to have the group's accountant e-mail me a copy of the report that was filed on paper. Larimore-Hall said he did not believe the committee was required to file electronically, but that he would instruct the accountant to e-file in the future.

Ventura County Republican Central Committee Chairman Mike Osborn said the Santa Barbara County Democrats had shown a "lack of transparency" in disclosing their finances.

Now that the report has become broadly available, the sources of that money might be somewhat disappointing to supporters of Republican Tony Strickland. Some had been hoping one of the Santa Barbara County Democratic Party's' senatorial benefactors had been a recipient of tobacco industry contributions. The Strickland camp hopes to blunt the negative publicity he and the Ventura County Republican Central Committee have received for accepting industry contributions. But Kuehl, Lowenthal and Florez have received no such money in the current election cycle. Florez, however, did receive $6,600 from the Altria Group, makers of Philip Morris cigarettes, in the 2005-06 election cycle.

When California voters take their first look at their sample ballots over the next few days, they're likely to see those 12 ballot propositions and cry, "Help!"

There are a number of online resources to research the measures, but one I just checked out today stands out. Produced by Citizen Voice, a nonpartisan voter empowerment group, the Web site features 10-to-12 minute video debates on each of the propositions.

The videos feature knowledgeable advocates and opponents on each of the measures. I just finished watching a couple, and found them to be even-handed and informative.

If you're among those screaming for help when confronted with those multibillion-dollar ballot questions, this is a worthwhile place to find it.

Voters in Ventura County might be a little confused as to where their district attorney stands in the hotly contested 19th District Senate race. Greg Totten has endorsed Republican Tony Strickland and provided favorable statements for Strickland to use in campaign mailers. But Totten now also appears in a mailer sent out by Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson -- in which he offers glowing words about her.

The Jackson mailer includes excerpts from a letter sent to her by the local DA at or near the end of her three terms in the Assembly.

"I am very grateful for your outstanding efforts on behalf of this office in successfully advancing important policy changes for crimes involving domestic violence and drunk driving," the letter says. "You have been a great advocate for crime victims and law enforcement."

When I asked Totten about his endorsement last week, he said has known Strickland since he was working for the state DA's association and Strickland was a very young legislative aide in the Capitol. Strickland, he said, has always been a supporter of not only tough-on-crime bills but also for law enforcement funding. As for Jackson, he acknowledged that she carried successful legislation sponsored by his office. "I have nothing bad to say about her," he said.

Perhaps Totten is the only politician in Ventura County who can win -- or lose -- either way in this campaign.

Voters in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties have been told to expect a wave of independent campaign spending by special interest groups seeking to influence the outcome of the 19th District Senate campaign between Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson and Republican Tony Strickland.

The first wave has hit the shore.

Last week a group called the California Alliance, a coalition of Consumer Attorneys, Conservationists and Nurses, reported expenditures of $173,00 on Jackson's behalf.The expenditures included polling, a mailer and a $118,000 purchase of either radio or television ads.

The biggest contributor to the group is the Consumer Attorneys of California, the group made up of attorneys who represent plaintiffs in civil lawsuits.

Campaign finance reports reflecting contributions received during the third quarter of the year will be released Monday, but in the case of the 19th District Senate campaign those reports will be outdated before they are ever disclosed.

The reporting period ended Sept. 30 -- last Tuesday. But yesterday, Republican Tony Strickland took in a healthy $283,000, topped by a quarter-million dollar contribution from the state Republican Party and $18,000 from the Fresno County GOP. He also received $3,600 from Philip Morris USA --a contribution that may rekindle discussion about the role of tobacco industry money in this campaign.

Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson reported another $42,000 in contributions yesterday, led by $25,000 from the Santa Barbara County Democratic Central Committee. And, building on her financial base from organized labor, she received $3,600 from the Washington, D.C.-based International Union of Painters and Allied Trades PAC. This comes on top of $124,000 she received from the state Democratic Party on Wednesday, the day after the most recent filing period closed.

To review, that's more than $400,000 that has flowed into the campaigns in just the three days since the reporting period closed.

Whichever candidate loses this campaign, one gets the feeling it won't be for lack of resources.

Four days before a town hall-style candidates forum sponsored by the Ventura Chamber Commerce featuring the candidates in the hypercharged 19th Senate District campaign, the camp of Republican Tony Strickland issued a press release yesterday: It had received the endorsement of the Ventura Chamber of Commerce PAC.

That raised an obvious question: Why would the chamber make its endorsement before the forum?

I called PAC President Bob Alviani this morning and got a very good answer.

The board interviewed both candidates over the summer and made its endorsement "at least a month ago," Alviani said. At that time, he said, there was no definite plan to sponsor a forum. That idea gained steam only after public interest grew in this multimillion-dollar campaign that has become the top legislative race in California this fall.

It's just that the Strickland campaign chose to announce the endorsement yesterday.

The Chamber PAC endorsement wasn't unanimous, Alviani said, and he acknowledges that the full chamber was asked to consider making an endorsement but decided to take no position on the race.

Alviani insists that despite the endorsement, the forum will be even-handed. "We've turned everything as far as questions over to (Star Editor) Joe Howry," he said. "It's totally up to him. He's got complete control."

The event will begin at 7 Friday evening in the Ventura College cafeteria. Seating is first-come, first-seated.