Coming down to Ventura County for Election Day coverage this morning, I ran into former Speaker Fabian Nunez on the plane from Sacramento. I asked him how many seats he thought Democrats would pick up in the Assembly today.

"Four to six," he said.

After I arched my eyebrows a bit, he revised the assessment.

"Realistically, three to four."

The difference between the optimistic forecast and the realistic one will make all the difference in Ventura County's contested 37th Assembly District. If incumbent Republican Audra Strickland were to lose that race to Democrat Ferial Masry, it would likely mean a turnout scenario in which Democrats pick up a half-dozen seats.

If Democratic gains are limited to three or four, a Ventura County upset would likely not be among them.