In the start of what could be a frightening trend for California's political class, the California Retailers Association today made a startling announcement: As part of the industry's efforts to cut costs, it is suspending all contributions from its political action committee.

"Given the difficult economic environment all retailers are looking to cut expenses and preserve cash," said association president Bill Dombrowski in a press release. "Political contributions are one of the expense areas being reduced, if not eliminated, and this action recognizes that reality."

The Retailers Association represents major California retailers such as department stores, convenience stores and supermarkets. Its members have more than 9,000 stores in California and account for more than $100 billion in sales annually.

During the last election cycle, the association contributed a total of more than $100,000 to a variety of both Democratic and Republican legislative candidates and in support of the ballot measure that would have altered legislative term limits.

Some of you may have noticed the updates in "95 percent accurate*" recently. We added the 2008 election results to the lineup illustrating Ventura County's remarkable presidential selection accuracy. We finally enabled comments.

And in the process, the RSS feed was changed, so please update yours if you wish to remain updated on new posts. The new feed is: http://blogs.venturacountystar.com/therdt/rss.xml

Now that Susan Jordan, the environmental activist from Santa Barbara and wife of Assemblyman Pedro Nava, has made it official she will seek to replace Nava when he is termed out in 2010, it's time to start seriously analyzing those two Assembly seats in the county that will come open in the next election season.

I spoke briefly with Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal last week and, although he was noncommital, he clearly has a strong interest in making the race. Carbajal was just re-elected to a second term last year, so he would have a free ride for the office, meaning he could run and lose without giving up his seat on the board. His Latino surname would likely be an asset, given that the district was 32 percent Latino when it was drawn back in 2001 and the percentage has in all likelihood grown since then.

Jordan, of course, would have the benefit of Nava's support, which will be of particular importance in trying to secure endorsements and financial support from Sacramento-based interest groups. It also helps generally in a two-person Democratic primary to be a woman running against a man.

Then there's the question of whether having two candidates from Santa Barbara might invite a Ventura County Democrat to take a second look at the seat. Supervisor Steve Bennett would be the strongest candidate, but the defeat of former Supervisor John Flynn last fall has given him a new lease on his current job. Since Flynn had long been a nemisis on the board, expect Bennet to now stay put.

Ventura City Councilman Bill Fulton would be another logical possibility, since he has spent much of his career studying and commenting upon state policies in such areas as land use and water supply. He might be intrigued by the idea of being the only Ventura County candidate in a three-person race. Still, Fulton is hardly the kind of fiery partisan who could be counted on to excite base Democratic voters in a primary.

In the east end of the county, Jeff Gorell of Camarillo may escape without competition in the Republican primary to replace outgoing Assemblywoman Audra Strickland. He has a dream resume for a candidate: businessman, Afghan war veteran and a former prosecutor. In addition, as a former junior staffer for ex-Gov. Pete Wilson, Gorell has a solid network of Republican contacts around the state and can expect fund-raising help from his former boss.

Democrats will be looking hard for a candidate because, although the district has been represented by a Republican since it was created, there are some indications it could be competitive with the right Democrat on the ticket. Strickland won by just 4 percentage points last fall, and the district will be one of five open seats now held by a Republican that was carried by Barack Obama in the presidential voting.

Here again, the strongest candidate would be an incumbent supervisor: Kathy Long of Camarillo. In the past, Long has shown no great ambition to seek state office, but the idea must have some appeal to someone who has been so active in the statewide supervisors' association.

The Democrats' best bet in that district would be a moderate with environmental credentials. That's the kind of candidate who would have a chance of faring well in Thousand Oaks -- especially if conservatives field a strong challenger against Supervisor Linda Parks in 2010 and Gorell, to demonstrate his conservative bona fides, backs her opponent.

If you've been following the tawdry story of San Bernardino County Assessor Bill Postmus, you know that he was arrested earlier this month after investigators charged him with possession methamphetamine just days after he had assured the Board of Supervisors that he did not have a drug problem. He is also under investigation for political malfeasance, and there are efforts afoot to either have supervisors remove him from office or to have voters recall him.

Postmus' political career has been largely distinguished by his prodigious fuund-raising abilities. His Inland Empire PAC distributed more than $225,000 in campaign contributions during the 2007-08 election cycle. Most of the money went to county officials in San Bernardino County, but a selected handful of candidates for the Legislature were also favored. Among them: Sen. Tony Strickland of Moorpark, who received $3,600 from Postmus' PAC in June 2007. It was among the first contributions Strickland received after announcing his campaign for the Senate.

Close to 400 people turned out last night to offer good wishes to one of the old hands of Democratic politics in Ventura County, the retiring head of the local Laborers International Union local 585, Leo Valenzuela.

Leo and his wife Marilyn, head of the the Tri-Counties Central Labor Council, have worked the political trenches for years, organizing precinct walking, phone banks and "labor-to-labor" outreach to union families on behalf of Democratic candidates and union-backed ballot measures. Many of the beneficiaries of those efforts turned out to say thanks.

Among those in attendance Saturday at Oxnard's Embassy Suites Resort were Assemblyman Pedro Nava, Supervisor John Zaragoza, former Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson, Supervisor Kathy Long, Oxnard City Councilman Andres Herrera , former Santa Barbara County Supervisor Susan Rose, Port Hueneme Mayor Jon Sharkey and Oxnard Harbor Commissioner Jess Herrera.

Also paying his respects was Republican District Attorney Greg Totten -- whose appearance reflected the labor and Democratic support that fell his way in his initial, brutal campaign for DA.

By far, the most enthusiastic reception for the political officials was for Zaragoza, fresh off his hard-fought win in the supervisor's race.

One of the toughest things to do in state politics in the term-limit area is to clear the field in a partisan primary for a relatively safe seat in the Legislature. Since the openings are predictable (everyone knows when an opening will occur), potential candidates have up to six or eight years to plot their moves.

Although it's much too early to say for sure, it's beginning to look like Camarillo Republican Jeff Gorell is on his way to pulling off such a coup. Gorell announced today he has received the endorsement of incumbent Assemblywoman Audra Strickland in the 37th Assembly District. He already has the endorsement of Supervisor Peter Foy of Simi Valley, who some had speculated could be a potential adversary. With Audra Strickland's endorsement, that means Gorell does not have to fear that the county's Republican power coiuple -- Tony and Audra Strickland -- will get behind a different candidate.

Gorell announced his candidacy for 2010 very early -- even before the 2008 elections. It appears that early move is paying off; early next month, Assembly Republican leader Mike Villines of Fresno will host a "meet the next 37th District assemblyman" reception in Sacramento. Events such as that will make it even more difficult for a challenger to emerge, since the institutional support of interest groups in Sacramento will be locked down for Gorell.

His biggest threat is that an unknown, wealthy candidate will emerge -- one who can self-fund a campaign. Money has a way of nullifying the adevantage of all those hard-earned early endorsements Gorell is securing.

Then there's also the question of whether the 37th District remains as safely Republican as it used to be. Incumbent Strickland won re-election by just 4 percentage points in November. Obviously, that was influenced by the Democratic tilt of the presidential race; then again, Strickland was a two-term incumbent while Gorell will be an unknown seeking an open seat. Democrats in the county are already actively recruiting, trying to find a strong candidate for the 2010 campaign.

If you'd like a smile, borne of both amusement and hope, try checking out the website of Escondido teacher Alex Kajitani, who was named today as one of four finalists for the presitgious national Teacher of the Year Award.

Kajitani's website offers a few samples of his work (a complete curriculum set is available for educators to purchase). The samples are definitely worth a listen. Try "The Itty-bitty Dot" or "Test Tiiiime!"

Kajitani, one of five California Teachers of the Year, was nominated for the award by Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell.

Democrats elected Assembly District-level party delegates at caucuses over the weekend and -- no surprise in the Obama era -- there were a lot of activists competing for the posts and many of the winners were fairly new faces to party politics who became engaged while volunteering for the Obama campaign.

The best example of that was in the 35th Assembly District. Four of the 12 winners were UCSB students -- two undergraduates and two graduate students. All the winners were from Santa Barbara County, and 10 of the 12 will become first-time delegates to the California state party conventions..

Jay Kapitz of Oak Park, the only candidate from Ventura County in the 41st Assembly District, finished first in the balloting. For Kapitz, this will be his third term as a party delegate, but he said the dynamics have clearly changed. "Activists came out of the woodwork during the Obama campaign," he told me, "and they have stayed out of the woodwork."

One measure of that: Kapitz has organized a dinner in Washington, D.C., next week for an estimated 50 activists from Ventura County who will be attending the inauguration.

In the Ventura County-dominated 37th District, among the winners was Roni Flowers of Thousand Oaks, a newcomer to party politics who earned rave reviews from local Democrats for her performance as a deputy regional field organizer and phonebank coordinator for Obama for America. Most of the others have been active for a least a few years in local Democratic clubs, including: Joan and Ron Adams, Susan Boloorchi, Kim Stephenson and David Maron, all of the Camarillo Democratic Club; Judy Avery Smith, Deborah Birenbaum, William Carter and Celofas Navarro of the Conejo Democratic Club. Also on the winning slate were Sean Keenan of the Ojai Democratic Club and Paul Markowitz from the San Fernando Valley portion of the district.

Local Democratic activists, buoyed by the election of Barack Obama, appear anxious to keep up the momentum. The party will conduct elections this weekend to elect 12 delegates to the 2009 and 2010 conventions from each of the state's 80 Assembly districts. The deadline to apply to become a candidate was Dec. 31, and each of the four districts that include parts of Ventura County drew competitive fields of at least 20 candidates.

The state's Young Democrats organization actively solicited candidates, and among those seeking seats in the local delegations are several college students and other youthful activists.

Democrats who wish to participate in the voting are urged to are urged to register at the state party Web site . They can also register on site, beginning at noon, for the meetings that begin at 2 p.m. A list of the candidates certified thus far can be found here.

Following are details for the local district elections:

SATURDAY

37th District (20 candidates): Newbury Park Library, 2331 Borchard Road.

38th District (24 candidates: Nobel Middle School in Northridge, 9950 Tampa Ave.

41st District (30 candidates): Topanga Community House in Los Angeles, 1440 N. Topanga Canyon Blvd.

SUNDAY

35th District (21 candidates): Eastside Library in Santa Barbara, 1102 E. Montecito St.

New Ventura County Sen. Tony Strickland, who ran this fall as a "renewable energy businessman" promising to promote the development of alternative energy, has taken the first step to show that he meant what he said.

Strickland told me last month that he does not agree with the provision in his fellow legislative Republicans' budget proposal that calls for a delay in implementing California's landmark global warming law. That regulations to implement that law, AB 32, call for aggressive steps to promote alternative energy, including a requirement that utilities purchase a third of their electrical power from renewable sources such as solar and wind energy.

Furthermore, Strickland said he intends to soon introduce a package of clean-energy legislation.

During the campaign, Strickland told me that he could not point to a single thing he did to promote renewable energy during his six years in the Assembly from 1999-2004. It was only after that time, he said, that the weight of evidence convinced him that global warming was a real problem and that the development of alternative energy was not only environmentaly important but also something that could stimulate California's economy.

It will be interesting to watch as issues arise in the coming legislative session how far Sen. Strickland will be willing to stray from his Republican colleagues to support clean-energy policies.

Willie Brown, the former San Francisco mayor and legendary speaker of the California Assembly, dropped an intriguing suggestion -- seemingly out of the blue -- in his column yesterday in the San Francisco Chronicle. He suggested that Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell would be the instant favorite should he decide to run for lieutenant governor in 2010.

The suggestion is intriguing for two reasons: (1) Brown has been a long-time mentor to O'Connell. The two have been close since their days in the Assembly, when O'Connell, who represented Ventura County in the Legislature for two decades, served as speaker pro tem under Brown. And, (2) O'Connell has publicly insisted that the only political office he's interested in seeking in 2010 is governor.

Was Brown using his column to tell O'Connell that he should lower his sights? Or was he using it to prop up a fallback position for his protege?

Brown notes that Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown is certain to run for governor in 2010 -- even if Sen. Dianne Feinstein were to decide she wanted the job. If Jerry Brown is in, and Feinstein is out (as is likely, now that she's taken over as chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee), then San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and Lt. Gov. John Garamendi will also likely get in. That would make it a very formidable field for O'Connell to crack without huge resources.

Willie Brown seemed to be using his column to send a message to his successor in the San Francisco mayor's office. If Newsom thinks he can use the lieutenant governor's position as his fallback position, Brown writes, he should think again -- because O'Connell would be hard to beat for that post.

There will be some interesting gamesmanship being played among the state's top Democrats in the months ahead over who is going to run for what office. It should be no surprise that Willie Brown is using his column to insert himself into the game.