The long-running animus between Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and state Republican Party pooh bahs was never more apparent than at last weekend's state GOP convention. One party official described the governor as a "kidney stone" that Republicans were waiting to pass. Another delegate offered a resolution that would have offered an official apology to former Gov. Gray Davis for putting him through a worthless recall election.

For his part, Schwarzenegger was in Washington, D.C., with the National Governors Conference, where he entertained the national media with criticisms of some of his fellow GOP governors' response to the federal stimulus package and with pointed criticism of Republican legislators in Sacramento who, in his view, would rather serve ideology than the people.

Now, Joe Mathews -- a former Los Angeles Times reporter and Schwarzenegger biographer -- reports that the governor's advisers recently held a formal discussion to consider whether Schwarzenegger should renounce his party affiliation and become an independent.

They rejected the idea, but don't be surprised if another discussion takes place in the run-up to next year's vote on the open primary. Schwarzenegger clearly wants to leave a legacy of political reform, and he and his team may yet decide he would be in a better position to promote that cornerstone reform as an independent.

The same reasoning may apply if talk of creating a constitutional convention ultimately produces a 2010 ballot measure to accomplish that.

After I reported in The Star on Saturday about Supervisor Peter Foy's attendance at the state Republican Party convention designed to promote his possible run for the GOP nomination for governor, the Sacramento Bee picked up the news and posted its own story on its Capitol Alert online news site.

That, in turn, generatated an e-mail blast today to reporters and political insiders in Sacramento from "DraftPeterFoy@gmail.com." The anonymous sender notes that when Foy spoke "300 conservatives crowded in a room to hear a conservative."

This is the stuff from which grassroots movements begin: one news story, generating another news story, generating e-mail blasts.

Now, if we just had some assurance that the person using the e-mail name draftpeterfoy is someone other than Peter Foy...

It was a bizarre weekend at the state Capitol. With the state careening toward financial insolvency, lawmakers essentially milled around for 26 more or less consecutive hours as legislative leaders and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger bargained and smoozed in search of the final votes that would put a solution to the crisis in place.

Much has been said about the dysfunctional nature of the California Legislature, usually in regard to its work product or lack thereof. But the process is what is really strange: Nothing major ever gets done in daylight hours.

The Senate is scheduled to resume its session at 2:30 this afternoon, and the Assembly at 4. It could be that another of those long nights is in store. If a solution is enacted to save the state government from essentially shutting down, you can bet it will happen sometime between 1 and 4 a.m. -- on whatever day the impasse is broken.

The state Senate has just scheduled a 9 a.m. session for tomorrow, indicating that an agreement on a budget deal has in fact been nailed down. Another telling sign this morning was an e-mail from the Senate Republican caucus staff with the subject line "what they are saying about the bipartisan budget solution."

The use of the word "bipartisan" is a strong indicator that Senate Republican leader Dave Cogdill believes he has lined up the necessary GOP votes. The e-mail then offers excerpts from newspaper editorials urging passage of the plan, including this from Cogdill's hometown newspaper, the Modesto Bee: "Given the scope of the state deficit, any budget compromise will contain ugly and unpopular components. But further delays are an even worse option."

With yesterday's official announcement by former eBay CEO Meg Whitman that she will be a candidate for the GOP nomination for governor, the 2010 campaign season in California began in earnest.

The announcement came less than two weeks before the state Republican Party convention, and ensures that talk of Whitman and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner -- and whether either of them is the best choice -- will dominate the delegates' attention.

Poizner has locked up most of the establishment endorsements, including the majority of the state's GOP congressional delegation (Elton Gallegly is among his supporters) and most GOP legislators, including two who represent portions of Ventura County, Sen. George Runner and Assemblyman Cameron Smyth.

One who is not one the Poizner bandwagon is Sen. Tony Strickland of Moorpark, who is an enthusiastic Whitman backer.

Both candidates are Silicon Valley billionaires with the ability to largely self-fund their campaigns. But neither is likely to stir the passions of the conservative activists who populate these conventions. Additionally, the political environment may not be conducive next year for multimillionaire CEOs, given the populist outcry over excessive executive compensation in the financial industry.

The question remains whether there is a legitimate opportunity for a very conservative candidate to enter the field and to be competitive against two big-spenders. GOP strategist Richard Temple told me yesterday he believes it would take $8 million to $10 million for a conservative candidate just to position himself or herself to take advantage of possible meltdown of the top candidates. To wage a full-on competitive battle, he estimated, it might take $20 million.

Whenever two wealthy candidates get into a primary, there is always an opportunity for a third candidate to steal the nomination, because it sets up the possibility for a "murder-suicide" scenario in which the two wealthy candidates spend big money attacking the other. In 1998, that's what happened in the Democratic primary when underdog Gray Davis benefitted from the mutual destruction of Al Checchi and Jane Harman.

As noted here last week, there is an attempt among some Southern California conservatives to create some buzz for Ventura County Supervisor Peter Foy . It remains to be seen how serious those efforts are -- and whether Foy has the wherewithal to raise the many millions that would be needed to be anything but a small-time spoiler against two candidates with bottomless checkbooks.

In a story in today's Star, I write about speculation that Ventura County Supervisor Peter Foy could become a "wild card" candidate for the Republican nomination for governor (sorry, I can't provide the story link because I'm writing this before the story is posted at VenturaCountyStar.com).

In a brief telephone interview on Friday, Foy sounded like someone very much intrigued by the idea and acknowledged that he's "not discouraging" conservatives who are dropping his name as a potential candidate. He said he intends to be present and visible at the state GOP convention Feb. 20-22 in Sacramento, but that there will be no "Foy for Governor" signs in the trunk of his car.

As with all political possibilities, this one creates a trail of potential ripples. If Foy were to run for statewide office in 2010, he would have to vacate his Simi Valley-district seat on the Board of Supervisors. And that would create an opening for Assemblywoman Audra Strickland, who lives in the district and who will be termed out of the Assembly next year.

Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal announced today that he has decided not to seek the Democratic nomination for the open seat in the 35th Assembly District next year.

In a statement released to media outlets in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties, Carbajal wrote: "At this point in time in my life the best place for me to continue my service is in my work in county government. I have an eight-year-old son and I feel it is important for me to be part of his everyday life. I also continue to find my work representing the residents of the First District to be extremely gratifying and enjoyable."

The supervisor closed his statement by saying he has told Santa Barbara City Councilman Das Williams he will "enthusiastically support" him if he decides to run. Williams, however, has publicly endorsed the only announced candidate, Susan Jordan, the wife of incumbent Pedro Nava, who will be forced out office by term limits.

There is no institution more sensitive to general social conditions than the public schools, which have outposts in every neighborhood and serve every family across economic, ethnic and cultural lines. Whatever is happening in society, schools find out about it fast.

With that in mind, consider some of these very sobering statistics that Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell reported in his annual State of Education address this week:

-- The number of homeless students in California schools increased by 19 percent in the 2006-07 school year, and the precentage continues to grow rapidly.

-- California schools served 28 million more free lunches in 2007-08 than the year before. Historically, the number of subsidized school lunches increased by about 1 percent per year over the previous decade; last year, it shot up by 12 percent.

If there are those who believe that somehow a repeat of Depression-era soup kitchens can be avoided without prompt, aggressive government action to stimulate the economy, the should reflect upon these numbers.

Homelessness and hunger are on the rise. The schools are in a position to notice it first. It may not take long for it to become obvious to everyone.

There is a sense in California's Capitol that this could be the week when legislative leaders and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger sign off on a budget-balancing plan and take a stab at getting the two-thirds majority vote needed to get California's finances at least temporarily back on solid ground.

Many, many things could go wrong. The negotiations have been conducted largely in secret, and each time some details leak out another advocacy group ratchets up the pressure to stop the deal. A proposal to eliminate targeted state funding for class-size reduction in elementary schools could be particularly problematic, for few state programs have met with such enthusiastic and universal approval as requiring classes of no more than 20 children in the earliest grades. The California Teachers Association launched a radio ad last week to alert the public, and lawmakers of both parties will feel some heat if they vote to go along with that idea.

Also worrisome is that public opposition to a key part of the budget deal -- a proposal to bring in $5.5 billion by selling bonds based on anticipated increased revenue from lottery sales -- remains strong. Approving that plan will require a vote of the people, and voters just don't like the idea.

The Public Policy Institute of California poll released last week confirms what other polls have found: nearly 2-to-1 opposition to the idea (34 percent favor, 61 percent oppose among likely voters). The negative vibes are shared by Democrats (55 percent against), Republicans (64 percent against) and independents (53 percent against).

Bottom line: Even if the Legislature and the governor do finally and miraculously agree on a budget-balancing deal, the chances are very good that the voters will send them back to the drawing boards to close the gap they had hoped to fill with lottery bonds.