Riverside Press Enterprise reporter Jim Miller today has a short, Political Notebook piece that makes an interesting observation about Sen. Tony Strickland's history of voting to dump legislative leaders who just months earlier had helped provide the financial resources to help him win close elections.

Miller reports that Strickland provided the swing vote to oust former Assembly Republican leader Rod Pacheco 10 years ago this week, and also provided the swing vote that ousted Senate Republican leader Dave Cogdill in February.

In each case, the deposed leader had financially supported Strickland in close elections.

Don't know what to make of this; caucus votes are not public, and determining just who is a "swing vote" is often a matter of interpretation. Miller reports that Strickland was "unavailable for comment" on the item.

Were the results of yesterday's Public Policy Institute of California poll an early obituary for the budget reform measures on the May 19 ballot?

Far from it, say the folks behind Budget Reform Now, the coalition organized by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's political team to promote the measures. The reason the PPIC poll is misleading, they argue, is that it does not accurately reflect the feelings of the relatively small number of voters who will cast ballots in May.

The PPIC contacts people through random telephone calls and then asks a series of questions to determine whether they are likely to vote. Using that methodology, more than 50 percent of the adults contacted were classified as likely voters -- and they said they were leaning against Proposition 1A, 39 percent to 46 percent.

In a memo distributed to reporters today, the committee's political operative Rick Claussen says its internal polling, which contacts only registered voters, uses a turnout model of 30 percent (a far more likely scenario for a special election in May). Using that model, Claussen says, the committee's polling shows 50 percent support and 37 percent oppose.

In either scenario, there is a high number of undecided voters -- and Claussen notes that the Budget Reform Now committee has the resources to reach out to and persuade those voters between now and May.

It's a plausible argument, even if it is self-serving.

The determining factor remains what it has always been: Will there be an organized, well-funded opposition campaign? If Arnold's coalition has the campaign playing field all to itself, its track record shows it can overcome initial voter reluctance and win a ballot measure campaign. That happened with Propositions 56 and 57 in 2004, again with the infrastructure bonds in 2006, and yet again with Proposition 11 last fall. The record also suggests, however, that a well-funded opposition can beat the Schwarzenegger fund-raising machine. That's what happened in the ill-fated 2005 special election.

It appears the fate of Proposition 1A is largely in the hands of the two wealthy high-tech entrepeneurs seeking the Republican nomination for governor: Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman. If either decides to try to curry favor with the virulently anti-tax wing of the Republican Party by writing a large check to finance an opposition campaign, the measure will likely go down. Both have spoken out against Prop. 1A, but neither has yet backed up those words with money.

One can picture the two of them, each holding their checkbooks at their side like Old West gunslingers, eyeing the other to see if he or she will start to make a move.

The one thing likely keeping either of them from drawing first is the thought that if they run for governor, they might actually become governor. And whoever becomes governor in January 2011 will be in a whole lot better position to govern if the temporary tax increases that could be cut short by Prop. 1A's defeat are still in place for another two years. Poizner and Whitman's advisers are surely telling them that if they draw their checkbooks now, they could very well end up shooting their potential governorship in the foot.

When President Obama was pushing his federal stimulus plan through Congress, there was much talk about the lack of bipartisanship on the issue. Although he tried, Obama could persuade only three GOP senators and zero Republican representatives to support the bill.

Turns out Californians are a lot like Congress in their thinking on the issue. A new Public Policy Institute of California poll released tonight shows that 62 percent of likely voters in the state support the stimulus package, but reveals a striking partisan divide.

Among Democrats, 82 percent favor the plan. Among Republicans, just 39 percent. Independents are also on board, with 62 percent support.

The president's approval rating in California remains strong -- 71 percent among all adults, and 63 percent among likely voters.

For those who appreciate good journalism and long for the days when the Santa Barbara News-Press provided that, you might want to check out the new blog on California politics and public affairs jointly published by former News Press executive editor Jerry Roberts.

Roberts is the former San Francisco Chronicle managing editor who was brought into Santa Barbara to reinvigorate the paper -- but then resigned under pressure in 2006 in an event that triggered a mass cleansing of the newsroom, from which the newspaper has never recovered..

Roberts teams with former San Jose Mercury political writer Phil Trounstine, who also served as communications director to Gov. Gray Davis, to publish Calbuzz.

The site appears to be smart and lively, and definitely worth a regular read for those who follow California public affairs.

Secretary of State Debra Bowen has released the voter registration reports that are required in February of every odd-numbered year -- reports that typically clean the voter rolls by taking off people whose movement or death was revealed during the previous fall's general election campaign.

True to form, the February report for Ventura County shows that the number of registered voters declined by about 4,100 since November. The report also shows that Democrats, who in 2008 surpassed Republicans in voter registration, have gained by subtraction.

The report lists 1,090 fewer Democrats than in November -- but also 2,789 fewer Republicans.

That means Democrats increased their lead by almost 1,700 voters -- increasing their percentage lead by about half a percent. The new total: 40.14 percent Democrats, 37.24 percent Republicans.

Marilyn Valenzuela, the executive secretary-treasurer of the Ventura-based Tri-County Central Labor Council, was thrilled today to be in the Assembly chambers being honored by Assemblyman Pedro Nava as the 35th District's "Woman of the Year."

But it was at least an equal thrill when she found out that a person she considers as perhaps America's "woman of the year" was also in Sacramento to speak to the honorees: newly sworn-in Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis.

President Obama's appointment of Solis has been greated with unrestrained enthusiasm in the organized labor community, especially in California, where the former state legislator and congresswoman has established herself as a fierce friend of organized labor.

"I can't get the smile off my face," Valenzuela said of her reaction since Solis' nomination was confirmed by the U.S. Senate.

Valenzuela says she remembers working side-by-side with Solis "in front of grocery stores" during a successful statewide campaign for a ballot initiative to raise the California minimum wage.

Solis is the first Latina to head the Labor Department, and her remarks during the annual ceremony that is part of Women's History Month focused on the progress of women. She noted that one of the first things she did in her new job was to have a portrait of Frances Perkins, the woman who was Franklin Roosevelt's secretary of Labor, retrieved from the archives and placed in her executive office suite.

"Secretary Perkins said once that the best advice she ever got was from her grandmother, who said, 'Whenever a door opens for you, walk through it.'"

One of the criticisms raised last fall by those who questioned the sincerity of Sen. Tony Strickland's claim to be a born-again advocate of renewable energy was that Strickland, as a member of the Assembly, had voted against a celebrated California law that requires utility companies to purchase at least 20 percent of their electrical power from renewable sources by 2020.

This year, Strickland has changed his view. He has signed on as the only Republican co-sponsor of a high-profile bill that would raise that requirement over time to 33 percent.

Even though he is a co-sponsor, however, Strickland abstained last week when the bill came before the Energy and Utilities Committee, of which he is a member. The bill, by Sen. Joe Simitian, D-Palo Alto, passed out of committee without Strickland's vote.

Strickland told me this week that he still very much supports the general concept of the bill, but believes there were too many unresolved issues to move it along so quickly.

Specifically, Strickland is concerned how the bill might affect a small municipal utility in his district -- the city of Lompoc in Santa Barbara County. The existing law with the 20 percent renewable portfolio mandate applies only to investor-owned utilities such as Edison. Potential effects of Simitian's bill on government-owned utilities such as Lompoc's are unclear.

Simitian assured Strickland he would work on the issue and resolve Lompoc's concerns before the bill clears the Assembly and returns to the Senate for concurrence.

"I don't think that's the right way to do it," Strickland told me. "I would have preferred that the bill stay in the Senate committee. I did not want to punt in the hope the issue would be resolved later."

Santa Barbara City Councilman Das Williams has opened an exploratory committee that will allow him to begin raising money to run for the 35th Assembly District next spring.

The decision means that a contested primary is now highly likely, with Susan Jordan, wife of incumbent Assemblyman Pedro Nava, already a declared candidate.

One reason Williams -- who had previously said he would put aside his aspirations and support Jordan "for the greater good of the community" -- decided to change course is a split among Santa Barbara environmentalists over a controversial offshore oil deal. I write about the dynamics of that situation in tomorrow's column in VenturaCountyStar.com. The bottom line is that the fallout from the failure of the offshore oil deal has caused some who previously supported Jordan to reconsider.

If Williams runs, it could set up a very interesting primary, based on these factors:
-- Williams was an aide to former Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson, and there is no love lost between Jackson and Nava. Having those two in different camps would create a battle of Democratic heavyweights in the region.
-- The fact that Nava is a sitting legislator will probably give Jordan a huge leg up in the ability to raise money from Sacramento-based interest groups, which typically take great care not to step on the toes of legislative incumbents.
-- With two Santa Barbarans in the race, it could create an opportunity for a candidate from Ventura County, such as Ventura City Councilman Bill Fulton.

Walking back from lunch today near the state Capitol, I ran into Ventura County Supervisor Peter Foy emerging from a lunch meeting of his own. Foy said his agenda for the day was discussing the "tax revolt" against the Legislature for voting to increase taxes, and not his potential campaign for governor.

He did mention that he had been at the anti-tax rally in Fullerton over the weekend organized by the KFI talk radio team of John and Ken. Attendance at the rally has been estimated, variously, at 9,000 and 15,000.

At the event, Foy was given a moment at the microphone. His appearance was prominently noted over the weekend by the blogger Jon Fleischman of the FlashReport -- the same fellow who got the Foy-for-governor mentioning campaign started a couple months ago.

From all outward appearances, it seems to me that the notion of a Foy darkhorse campaign for governor has some legs.

It's probably coincidental that this would come up precisely at the time that Rush Limbaugh's status as a political figurehead is all the buzz in national political circles, but the Ventura County Democratic Party today announced the kickoff of a weekly radio show on KVTA in Ventura that will spotlight progressive issues.

The show will air every Friday, beginning tomorrow, from 11 a.m. to noon. It will be a weekly fixture of the daily, 11 a.m.-noon "Locals Only" show, hosted by Kelli McLay. Democratic activists David Atkins and Brian Leshon will join her on Fridays.

The inaugural guest will be Democratic Assemblyman Pedro Nava, who represents Ventura and much of Oxnard.

County party activists are obviously excited at this development. In an e-mail to members, they urged Democrats to join the station's "VIP club" for listeners. "Tell them you are joining because the station is beginning to cater to the Democratic majority in the county," the e-mail suggests.

Since politics on the radio has long been dominated by conservatives (Limbaugh being Exhibit A), one can perhaps excuse their exuberant misstatement. While registered Democrats now constitute a plurality of registered voters in the county, with 40 percent, they are still a ways from claiming a majority.

When I spoke to the Ventura County Taxpayers Association last week, I asked Joel Fox, the past president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, to be my guest. Fox, a former policy adviser to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and a one of the state's leading tax-limitation advocates, now publishes a blog, FoxandHoundsdaily.com. Breaking from some other fiscal conservatives, Fox is supporting Proposition 1A, the May 19 special election ballot measure that would establish a state spending limit and also extend for two years the temporary tax increases approved by the Legislature last month.

After the speech had ended, I introduced Fox to Hank Lacayo, a member of the county association's board and the president of the California Congress of Seniors.

It took Fox about two seconds to make a quick connection: "You signed the ballot argument against Proposition 1A," he said to Lacayo.

A good catch. Lacayo indeed is one of the signers of the No on 1A ballot argument, and it's not the first time he's lent his name to ballot campaigns. Selecting the people to sign ballot arguments is a political art form, and Lacayo provides campaigns with a two-fer when he lends his name. The name of his organization has a natural appeal and credibility with seniors, and his Latino surname indicates that the argument has appeal among ethnic minorities.