With the release of new Field and PPIC polls in the last week showing former eBay executive Meg Whitman opening up a potentially commanding lead over Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner in the race for the GOP nomination for governor, there is a natural tendency among some observers to assume the race is all but over.
Among them are people with relatively short memories.
The last time there was a contested GOP primary for governor -- in 2002 -- former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan held an even larger lead in the polls in January, which at the time was much closer to Election Day (the primary was in March instead of June back then).
Here are the numbers from the Jan. 29, 2002 Field Poll: Riordan 46 percent, Bill Simon 13 percent, Bill Jones 13 percent. That's a 33-point lead. The Jan. 25, 2010 Field Poll shows Whitman at 45 percent and Poizner at 17 percent, a 28-point lead, with a lot more undecideds than there were in January '02.
Poizner's challenge is to tap into the same conservative grassroots base that turned things around and put Simon over the top, and that's a group he has been diligently trying to cultivate. He long ago hired Simi Valley's ultra-conservative grassroots specialist, Steve Frank, and today announced the leaders of his grassroots network, including Dianne Alexander of Thousand Oaks, who will head up Poizner's efforts on the Central Coast.
Clearly, there are differences between the two races -- most notably the fact that Whitman stands ready to spend a whole lot more money than Riordan ever did, and Poizner won't be helped, as was Simon, by an orchestrated effort by the incumbent Democrat (Gray Davis) to help undercut the GOP front-runner.
Still, don't underestimate the power of the conservative grassroots in a closed Republican primary in California. If Poizner can convince those folks to trust him -- and, perhaps more importantly, to not trust Whitman -- he could make a race out of this yet.
I could not agree with you more about this particular race.
Unlike 2002, the undecideds and partially undecideds will let their computer search engines like Google, Bing, and Ask do their research work for them. The picture will become very clear right in front of their very eyes, just who has a voting record, who has a clean business record, and who has the experience that is needed in government and business to succeed in the wild west now called Sacramento in 2010.
I could not agree with you more about this particular race.
Unlike 2002, the undecideds and partially undecideds will let their computer search engines like Google, Bing, and Ask do their research work for them. The picture will become very clear right in front of their very eyes, just who has a voting record, who has a clean business record, and who has the experience that is needed in government and business to succeed in the wild west now called Sacramento in 2010.
I worry when I see a candidate willing to spend lots of money to "buy" a political position unless they expect to get a return on thier money. I am not speaking about the costs of advertising and related expenses of getting the message to the people through meetings, travel and etc.
We need to make sure the candidate has experience in business and management. I believe Steve Poizner has both the experience and proven track record. It is my opinion that as this process continues, people will see thier chioce is clear.
A lot of money being spent. It is unlikely that either Witmann or Poizner will win in the general - but I bet the trickle down candidates are glad they are in because it means there should be a good turn-out for the June election.
Katie is already predicting a Jerry Brown win in November? Fat chance of that. If Steve Poizner is the Republican nominee, Brown can kiss it goodbye. Californians are sick and tired of the same-old, same-old in State government. The last thing they'll want is a recycled/ex-governor/career politician to address the huge financial issues that California is currently facing.
We need fresh blood in there. Someone with business experience and a solid track record of financial successes. Sorry, but a retread, career-bureaucrat like Jerry Brown doesn't fit the bill.
Look for Poizner to kick a** is November.
Katie Vents Again - I don't think Jerry Brown has even filed. But it is very rare that a Republican ever wins a state office and the GOP is in turmoil right now in the state.
I wonder what you were saying about the Massachusetts Senate race. The conventional wisdom was that a Republican could never win there either -- in a State where the Kennedy's are considered royalty.
Poor Scott Brown - everyone and his brother is grabbing onto his coattails. He's going to be getting alot of people upset when it comes to voting time. He is....gasp....a...R.I.N.O!! He does things that aren't "pure". He....gasp again...may actually think for himself.
Poor Scott Brown - everyone and his brother is grabbing onto his coattails. He's going to be getting alot of people upset when it comes to voting time. He is....gasp....a...R.I.N.O!! He does things that aren't "pure". He....gasp again...may actually think for himself.
So, you never answered my question, Katie. How does the Massachusetts election results square with your assessment that a Republican can't win in California?
I don't have a clue what happened in MA - I don't know the candidates, what they were saying or what their voting history was. Therefore I can't comment more than I have. I do have a clue about California and I don't think we are going to have another Republican governor. Let's just say, I sure wouldn't bet on that scenario!!
Well, let me enlighten you a little then, Katie. What happened in Massachusetts was a voter revolt against the far left policies of the Obama administration, particularly on health care legislation.
The folks are fed up out there. What they want is more focus on the economy and job creation and not someone trying to establish their legacy or make history by enacting so-called health care reform that only 12% of the voting public is interested in.
Obama and the Democrats are not listening to the American people. That was the message that was conveyed loudly and clearly in Massachusetts. And, based on what I heard in Obama's State of the Union speech the other night, they still don't get it.
I predict this current mood among the voters will carry over to the California elections and, if we get a real Republican like Poizner nominated, Jerry Brown doesn't stand a chance.
The healthcare system is broken and neither side is saying what needs to be done to fix it - it needs to be a free market system - including insurance and pharamcueticals but there is too much money going into the pockets and campaigns of existing politicals for this to ever get vocalized much less happen.
Is "real" Republican a code word for not being a "R.I.N.O."? Is Scott Brown a "real" Republican???
I agree the health care system needs fixing, but the Obama-care plan was the wrong way to go. We don't need a terrible plan forced down our throats by the majority party just because they say it's the best thing for us. The Massachusetts vote was a response to this and my advice would be that they better listen to the will of the people or they'll be out on their ears come November.
Timm,
Just a reminder: The Republican primary election this June is NOT a closed one.
Independent (Decline to state) voters may and probably will vote in the GOP primary since the Democrats appear to not have a primary race with Jerry Brown being the presumed candidate.
Meg Whitman has my vote!!!!!!!!
Good op-ed on page 2 of the LA Times today on DTS voters and the governers race.
All of you fellow Conservatives and Independents out there, just in case you were thinking of voting for Meg Whitman; you might want to think again. There are a couple of videos on www.youtube.com showing an interview with Meg Whitman where she's boasting that she went on a "global warming" cruise with Obama's Green Job's Czar "Van Jones". She then tells a reporter how smart and intellectual Van Jones is and she supports all of his work. This is the same Van Jones that was forced to step down from his appointed Czar positition because he admitted numerous times that he was a self proclaimed "Socialist" and was arrested twice (for his involvement in the riots), went to prison at least once.
Don't take my word for it, see for yourself, search "Meg Whitman Van Jones Video" and you'll find it.
Ever since I saw Meg Whitman in these videos stating these things, I have decided to support Steve Poizner. Think about it... she didn't have to say these things about this self proclaimed socialist and it isn't like she said I know of him and like the work he his doing. She said she had followed his work through out the past years and really endorses him. Maybe it was because she was being interviewed by the Left Wing Controlled Media, and knew she wouldn't earn any brownie points stating the truth. "He (Van Jones) is a hack". It seems to me that she will say anything that the crowd she is speaking to - wants to hear.
All of you fellow Conservatives and Independents out there, just in case you were thinking of voting for Meg Whitman; you might want to think again. There are a couple of videos on www.youtube.com showing an interview with Meg Whitman where she's boasting that she went on a "global warming" cruise with Obama's Green Job's Czar "Van Jones". She then tells a reporter how smart and intellectual Van Jones is and she supports all of his work. This is the same Van Jones that was forced to step down from his appointed Czar positition because he admitted numerous times that he was a self proclaimed "Socialist" and was arrested twice (for his involvement in the riots), went to prison at least once.
Don't take my word for it, see for yourself, search "Meg Whitman Van Jones Video" and you'll find it.
Ever since I saw Meg Whitman in these videos stating these things, I have decided to support Steve Poizner. Think about it... she didn't have to say these things about this self proclaimed socialist and it isn't like she said I know of him and like the work he his doing. She said she had followed his work through out the past years and really endorses him. Maybe it was because she was being interviewed by the Left Wing Controlled Media, and knew she wouldn't earn any brownie points stating the truth. "He (Van Jones) is a hack". It seems to me that she will say anything that the crowd she is speaking to - wants to hear.
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