The Pew Research Center, using data from the Census Bureau's 2008 American Community Survey, reports today that Hispanics now account for 37 percent of Ventura County's population, up from 33 percent in 2000. With 296,745 Hispanics, the county has the 28th largest population of Hispanics among the nation's 3,141 counties. In 2000, it ranked 26th.

Statewide, the data show that 37 percent of Californians are Hispanic. Of California's 13.4 million Hispanics, 61 percent are native born and 84 percent are of Mexican origin.

The percentage is certain to increase as time goes on: The data show that the median age of Hispanics in California is 27. Among non-Hispanic whites, the median age is 43.

The campaign of Democratic Assembly candidate Susan Jordan today sent me the results of a poll, conducted for Jordan by the Washington, D.C.-based Feldman Group, that suggests the primary contest between Jordan and Santa Barbara City Councilman Das Williams could be very close.

As expected, given that he is an incumbent local elected official, Williams holds a small, but significant lead (34 percent to 22 percent) when only the names and ballot titles of the two candidates are read. Jordan leads at that stage, however, among voters in the Ventura County portion of the district.

After brief biographies of the two candidates were read, the poll produced an exact tie at 41 percent.

After I agreed not to share the content because it could tip off some of Jordan's campaign strategies, strategist Steve Barkan read me the biographies. They were reasonably even-handed, although the wording clearly worked to Jordan's favor among at least one segment of voters. Also included in Jordan's biography was the fact that she is the wife of incumbent Assemblyman Pedro Nava -- something that probably worked to her favor, as the poll also showed that Nava is viewed favorably by a strong majority of Democratic voters in the district.

Even allowing for the skew, the poll suggests that this race will be very close. Given that Williams has been on the ballot multiple times in recent years in Santa Barbara County and that Jordan has never run for office, the fact that he leads by only 12 points out of the box has got to be encouraging to the Jordan campaign.

The poll surveyed 400 likely Democratic primary voters by telephone on March 16, 17 and 18.

In Williams' favor is the fact that 44 percent were undecided before being read the biographies. That means his fund-raising advantage could be put to good use in the weeks leading up to the June 8 election.

Last week's Public Policy Institute of California survey of state voters contained plenty of good news for supporters of Proposition 14 on the June 8 ballot. The measure would abolish the current primary election system in the state and replace it with one in which voters could chose any candidate from any party. The top two finishers -- regardless of party -- would advance to the general election ballot.

The poll showed 56 percent of likely voters in support and just 27 percent in opposition, with support crossing all party and ideological lines. Perhaps even more noteworthy were the the views voters expressed about political parties generally, even those to which they belong. The disdain for political parties was striking: Among likely voters, 53 percent said they have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party and 62 percent had an unfavorable view of the Republican Party. Notably, 27 percent of registered Democrats and 39 percent of registered Republicans said they view their own party unfavorably.

Given that the most vocal opponents of Proposition 14 are Democratic and Republican party leaders, it seems pretty clear that they're going to have to try to mask their involvement in the opposition campaign. Given those poll numbers, it's obvious that voters won't be in a mood to buy whatever party officials are selling.

The bright spot for opponents is that the level of support for Proposition 14 is weakest among registered Republicans, a group that will likely be vastly overrepresented in the June election because of the two top-of-the-ticket contested GOP primaries for governor and U.S. senator. Among registered Republicans, 48 percent support and 40 percent oppose.

Less than a week after officially qualifying for the November ballot, backers of an initiative that would legalize the adult possession of small amounts of marijiuana and set up a tax and regulatory scheme to govern its sales today launched a radio ad in the Los Angeles area.

In an apparent attempt to blunt expected opposition from those in the law enforcement community, the first ad features a former L.A. County sheriff's deputy whose duties once included working in classrooms to educate students about the dangers of drug and alcohol abuse. In the ad, Jeffrey Stoddard says he's "seen firsthand that the current approach on cannabis is simply not working."

Local government officials from Ventura County, especially those from Simi Valley, should be pleased to learn that Assemblyman Cameron Smyth, whose district includes the northern half of Simi, has been named chairman of the Assembly Local Government Committee.

The appointment is particularly noteworthy because Smyth is a Republican, and no Republican has chaired an Assembly committee since 2002. New Speaker John Perez yesterday named Smyth and Paul Cook as GOP committee chairs, a move he hopes will demonstrate a renewed commitment to bipartisan cooperation. Cook will head the Veterans Affairs Committee.

In other appointments, Assemblyman Pedro Nava, D-Santa Barbara, who represents Ventura and much of Oxnard, moves from chairing Banking and Fianance to chairing Envornmental Safety and Toxic Materials. Assemblywoman Julia Brownley, D-Santa Monica, who represents Port Hueneme and much of Oxnard, retained her position as chair of the Education Committee. And Assemblywoman Audra Strickland, R-Thousand Oaks, retained her post as vice-chairwoman of Accountability and Administrative Review.

Unlike President Obama, who picked schools from two states he didn't win in 2008 (Kansas and Kentucky) to reach the NCAA basketball finals, GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Poizner couldn't resist the opportunity to pander when filling out his bracket.

Poizner's choices, distributed by the campaign today, predict that Cal will win the national championship and that San Diego State and St. Mary's will advance to the Elite Eight. For good measure, he picks UC Santa Barbara to join those schools as the fifth California team to make it to the Sweet Sixteen.

Seriously, Steve?

Hank Lacayo, the civic and political activist from Newbury Park, has been a major player in national and state Democratic politics for decades. As the former United Auto Workers political director under Walter Reuther, Lacayo, 77, has rubbed shoulders with the likes of Lyndon Johnson, Hubert Humphrey, Jimmy Carter, Cesar Chavez and the Kennedy brothers.

I once was reporting a story on Hank being honored at a party during the 2000 Democratic National Convention when New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson made a point of telling me that had it not been for Lacayo's early support, "I'd have never been elected to Congress." Another time, when I told Gray Davis a story that Lacayo had told me, the then-governor responded: "If Hank said it, then it must be true."

Last week, I got the chance to speak briefly with John Perez, the new speaker of the California Assembly. Perez, 40, is also a former union political director, having worked with the United Food & Commercial's local in Southern California. So I asked Perez if he knew Lacayo. "Hank? I've known Hank since I was 22," he said.

It figures.

It's a bit breathtaking what an unlimited budget can do for a political campaign.

Billionaire Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman today released a 48-page, magazine-style publication that states her positions on a wide variety of policy issues. But if you're not that into reading, don't worry. By my count, the 48 pages include fewer than 15 pages of actual text, including her introductory letter and personal biography at the end.

The rest consists of full-color photos and striking graphics -- the best, no doubt, that money can buy.

There is a distinctly different feel to this weekend's state Republican Party convention. The social issues seem to have slipped almost off the map.

The Republican faithful are focused so intensely on government spending and taxation -- and even on trying to win in the fall -- that all the other issues seem to have fallen to the wayside.

That sentiment was evident Friday night when presidential wannabe Mitt Romney introduced his former employee, Meg Whitman, to delegates. Whitman is pro-choice, supports Medi-Cal funding for abortions and says she was against Proposition 187, the anti-illegal immigrant ballot measure in 1994. But for the moment she is the runaway leader in the Republican primary for governor. Romney's explanation: Economic issues are so critical right now that he described all the other issues as "small-bore."

It was evident also when former Rep. Tom Campbell, leading in the polls among the party's three candidates for U.S. Senate, forthrightly said at a Friday news conference that he would vote to overturn the military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy barring gays from openly serving in the military. "I believe you should be allowed to serve your country whether you're gay or straight," he said.

So why is Campbell leading, even though he readily acknowledges that he is and always has been a moderate on social issues? One answer can be found in his posters that adorn the walls of the convention hotel. They feature photos of Campbell and incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. Under his photo are the words, "He wins." Under Boxer's are the words, "She loses."

For the first time in many years, there are appearances that California Republicans may actually be more concerned about that -- winning -- that insisting on ideological purity among their candidates. There doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for decrying either Whitman or Campbell as "RINOs" -- Republicans in name only.

In early December I participated in forum sponsored by the Santa Barbara Chamber of Commerce to discuss efforts under way to reform California's political and governance systems. It seemed at the time that a lot of action would be just around the corner. Joining me on the panel were Fred Silva of California Forward and John Grubb of Repair California, the group that is pushing for a constitutional convention. Each group was anticipating putting two initiatives on the November ballot.

Silva had a memorable phrase for what Californians could expect in the fall of 2010: "A festival of reform."

It now appears certain that none of those ballot measures will make it to the ballot, largely for lack of financing. In addition, only a handful -- six or seven -- of the 80 initiatives that have been cleared for signature-gathering are being earnestly pursued.

Experts now expect that there will be perhaps 10 or 12 measures on the November ballot -- about average for a general election. What had been billed as a "festival" will now be something more akin to a swap meet.

In my column in The Star today, I wrote that Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Poizner had opened his television advertising campaign with a focus on illegal immigration, and how the camp of opponent Meg Whitman derided that decision in comments to the Spanish-language media.

The column cited a statement that Whitman aide Hector Barajas gave to Univision over the weekend, and repeated to me in a telephone call on Tuesday: "To introduce himself in this way, by trying to divide and attack our community, marks the end of the Poizner campaign."

In response, the Poizner camp sent me the flyer below that was passed out by the Whitman campaign at the fall GOP convention. It does make one wonder why Barajas doesn't consider this to be an attempt "to divide and attack our community."

whitman immigration flyer.pdf

On the surface, it may seem odd that, two years into his first term after barely surviving an expensive and brutal campaign for state Senate, Ventura County lawmaker Tony Strickland is already taking aim at a higher office. But for a lot of reasons, his decision to run for controller makes sense.

For one, Strickland is clearly the ambitious sort. Only 40, he's already toyed with running for U.S. Senate, governor and Congress, and he has one campaign for state office already under his belt. Now, for the first time in his career, he has a free ride -- an opportunity to run for higher office and still retain his Senate seat if he loses. In addition, it appears that 2010 will be a much better year for Republicans than was 2006, when he ran and lost for the same office. The underlying dynamics of a rematch will be more favorable for Strickland, especially since this also appears to be a year in which Democrat John Chiang's incumbency will not be as strong an advantage as it typically is. On top of that, since Strickland was out of office in 2006, he had to use the rather ambiguous ballot designation of "taxpayer organization president"; this time around he can use "state senator."

Secondly, although Republicans have been running for all the other statewide offices for months, none had stepped forward to run for controller. It's possible that Strickland was influencing that vacuum from behind the scenes, but still, by coming in at the last minute the impression is that he's doing his party a favor by stepping forward.

And then there's the fact that Strickland is poised to take advantage of a lot of political work he's done on behalf of others. It's no accident that he will be formally making his announcement this weekend at the state Republican Party convention at a time when former Massachusetts governor and presidential wannabe Mitt Romney will be on hand. Strickland worked hard for Romney in 2008; it will be in Romney's interest to reciprocate, given that he'd like to maintain his GOP friends in California so they will be there for him again for the 2012 GOP presidential primary. In addition, Strickland has been an early and prominent supporter of Meg Whitman, and if she wins the primary it certainly won't hurt his chances to have a billionaire gubernatorial candidate in his corner in the fall.

Finally, there is this: Strickland is facing a great uncertainty with his Senate seat. How it will be redrawn in 2012 is anybody's guess, but there's a pretty good chance he would be faced with either running for re-election in a district that's a lot less favorable to Republicans, being placed in a district in which he'd have to run against another incumbent lawmaker, or both. If he could win a campaign for controller in 2010, he wouldn't have to worry about what redistricting will bring.

And one more thing: Given the state's bleak financial situation, there's a fair chance the governor elected in 2010 will be a one-term governor. An incumbent statewide officeholder would be a strong position to compete for his party's nomination for the top job in 2014.

His Ventura County constituents might rightfully ask when Strickland is actually going to spend time representing them in the Senate, but the fact is that he is a perpetual campaigner. His track record has made that clear, so voters should have known that when they elected him.

In his remarks upon being sworn in as new speaker of the Assembly today, John Perez issued an edict to put a stop to a disturbing trend in the lawmaking process.

Henceforth, he said, lawmakers and lobbyists will not be allowed to exchange text messages while legislators are on the floor of the Assembly or in committee hearings.

"Californians expect us to pay full attention to the issues and to each other -- and they deserve to know who is involved in the debate," he said. "They need not worry that special interest lobbyists are secretly sending messages of opposition or support to us as we deliberate."