December 2010 Archives

What size of congressional districts might mean to Ventura County

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The news today that California has a population of 37.25 million people and will retain its 53 congressional districts for the coming decade creates an intriguing political possibility for Ventura County.

Dividing the state population recorded by the U.S. census by 53 districts, it means that each congressional district will have about 703,000 residents. As it happens, that's almost exactly what the state Department of Finance estimates to be the combined populations of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties.

Given that the Monterey-San Luis Obispo county line is a natural dividing point between northern and southern California, it would be a natural boundary for any redistricting plan. If that were to happen, creating a San Luis-Santa Barbara congressional district would appear to be a no-brainer. Tracking on down the coast, where would that leave Ventura County?

The county has an estimated population of sightly less than 850,000. That would be one full congressional district, with about 145,000 people left over -- in other words, the whole county minus either Thousand Oaks or Simi Valley (both about 130,000 population).

Either such district would have a small Democratic voter registration advantage, but the advantage would be larger (6.3 percentage points) if Simi Valley were taken out than if Thousand Oaks were taken out (5.8 percentage points).

The official census population numbers for counties and cities won't be released until March, but as the redistricting speculation begins, the above scenario is at least food for thought.

A small growth rate, led by natural increases

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In a population report issued last week -- one that will become more or less moot after the U.S. Census Bureau releases its official population numbers next week -- the Department of Finance estimated that Ventura County grew by 0.92 percent, or 7,741 people, between July 2009 and July 2010.

The bulk of that increase was the result of more than twice as many births (11,160) as deaths (5,077). In addition, the state estimates that 2.464 people immigrated to Ventura County from foreign countries during that period. It also estimates that there was a net outflow of people moving to and from Ventura County other counties in California or other U.S. states. It pegs the domestic outmigration at 806 people.

The county's growth rate was almost exactly that of the state, 0.91 percent. California has now grown to 38.8 million people.

The state's numbers will be trumped next week, when the Census Bureau will report the state-by-state results of the 2010 census. The key issue, politically, will be the bureau's congressional apportionment report. It could indicated that California, for the first time, will lose a congressional district as a result of decade-long growth that was slower than other areas of the country. Those areas will gain seats as a result.

Three county cities backed legalized pot

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The city-by-city statement of vote for the Nov. 2 election shows that, while Proposition 19 was soundly defeated countywide (55 percent to 45 percent), voters in three cities backed the measure to legalize the adult possession and regulated sales of small amounts of marijuana.

Those three cities were Ventura (50.4 percent), Ojai (56.9 percent) and Port Hueneme (50.5 percent).

It appears that the measure was also supported by voters in Oak View and other portions of the First Supervisorial District as well, as it passed in that district by a wider margin than the combined vote differentials in the cities of Ventura and Ojai.

The four cities that most solidly rejected the measure were Fillmore (61.2 percent), Camarillo (59.3 percent), Santa Paula (57.3 percent) and Oxnard (57.1 percent).

Perhaps local officials in all those cities should keep these vote totals in mind when considering issues relating to medical marijuana, as they give a clear indication of the views of local voters on the marijuana issue generally.

Standing up -- literally -- for Ventura County

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The ritual of swearing-in members of the Legislature requires the clerk of the Assembly to recite, alphabetically, the 58 counties in California. As the county names are read, members whose districts include all or portions of that county stand. It always creates a sustained giggle when "Los Angeles County" is read off, and nearly a third of the members rise.

Today, however, the number who rose at the mention of L.A. County shrank by one from previous years. That's because newly elected Assemblyman Jeff Gorell of Camarillo remained seated, even though 16 percent of his district is in L.A. County. Similarly, Gorell stayed in his chair when "Kern County" was called off, although he would have been entitled to stand because there are 5 Kern County voters -- that's right, 5 -- in his district.

Instead, Gorell remained seated through Mono and Monterey, Plumas and Riverside, through all those S's from the "San" and "Santa" counties, beyond Tehama and Tulare. He rose only when "Ventura County" was called, making him the last of the 80 to stand (those representing Yolo and Yuba counties had stood for other counties in their districts that come earlier in the alphabet).

Gorell told me he thought it make sense to wait for "Ventura" to be called, since that's the county in which he lives and the county that makes up 84 percent of his district. He said he asked Assembly Chief Clerk Dotson Wilson during orientation whether it was appropriate to wait or whether he was required to stand as soon as any county in his district was called. Wilson's advice: Stand whenever you think is appropriate, so long as you are standing after the last county is called off.

On his feet at last, Gorell joined his 79 colleagues in taking the oath of office.

How many voted, and where

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With the secretary of state having closed the books on the November election, the final turnout was 59.5 percent of registered voters -- the highest turnout for a gubernatorial general election in California since 1994, when 60.5 percent turned out.

In Ventura County, the turnout was 62.5 percent.

The statewide number is the latest validation of why all the pre-election internal polling by Republicans turned out to be so very wrong.

I believe GOP candidates and officials, including Meg Whitman, were dead serious when they continued to insist, even on the eve of the election, that the race for governor would be very close. I had a conversation with state Republican Party Chairman Ron Nehring on the Friday before Election Day, and Nehring forcefully asserted that the public polling was way off. "It's not going to be a 10-point election," he said referring to the contest between Whitman and Democrat Jerry Brown. "I guarantee you it's not going to be a 10-point election."

In one sense he was right: It turned out to be a 13-point victory for Brown. That, of course, is not what Nehring meant.

Republican pollsters, buying into all the pre-election hype about an "enthusiasm gap," were modeling voter turnouts in which Democrats essentially threw in the towel and didn't bother to vote. That didn't turn out to be the case at all, as can be determined by looking at the relative turnouts in some of the state's largest counties.

Consider these Republican strongholds: Orange County, 55.4 percent; Riverside County, 57.4 percent, Kern County, 56.4 percent.

Compare that with similarly sized Democratic strongholds: Santa Clara County, 67.2 percent, Alameda County, 61.2 percent; San Mateo County, 65.3 percent.

And the Big Kahuna -- Los Angeles County -- wasn't that far below the statewide average, at 53.4 percent.

At least in California, it seems Democrats were plenty enthused about this election.

95 percent accurate
Over the last 25 presidential elections, Ventura County voters have backed the winner 24 times, or over 95 percent of the time. It is one of only a handful of counties in the nation that has been such a predictable bellwether.
about Timm Herdt
Timm Herdt
The Ventura County Star's Sacramento Bureau Chief Timm Herdt on state issues and politics from Sacramento to Ventura County. He can be contacted at therdt@vcstar.com
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