As the Citizens Redistricting Commission moves toward developings its first proposals for new legislative and congressional districts and has completed its first round of taking public testimony, some possible outcomes are beginning to emerge. As they await their first look at what the future may hold, some Central Coast politicians have high hopes while others have low expectations. Who's up and who's down? Here's a rundown:

UP: Former Republican state Sen. Abel Maldonado of Santa Maria, who served briefly as the state's appointed lieutenant governor before losing his bid last fall for election to a full term, could find new political life. Maldonado is dead set on running for Congress, and the most likely scenario that has emerged would create a district that would give him a very good shot at defeating incumbent Democrat Lois Capps. If a San Luis Obispo County-Santa Barbara County district is created, the voter registration would make it a tossup district. Maldonado would have a leg up because his base is Santa Maria -- a city that would not only be the largest in the district, but also one in which he could hope to gain more than the usual Republican share of votes among its Latino majority.

UP: Tim Allison and any other Democrat from Ventura County who might harbor an interest in running for Congress (Steve Bennett? John Zaragoza?). A Ventura County-based district that excludes most of Simi Valley -- a likely scenario -- would be one with a 5 to 7 percentage point Democratic voter registration advantage. That would be a challenging playing field for Republican Elton Gallegly, if he decides to run for another term. It might, however, create an opportunity for a more moderate Republican (Glen Becerra?), should Gallegly decide to retire.

UP, BUT BASED ON A HOPE AND A PRAYER: There is a lot of sentiment, and there has been much advocacy, for a legislative scheme that would create an almost exclusively Santa Barbara County Assembly district, and another that would encompass nearly all of Ventura County west of the Conejo Grade. That scheme also calls for a Senate district that would combine those two Assembly districts. That's going to be a difficult scenario for the commission to embrace, however, because it would leave commissioners with no good place to put a quarter million people in San Luis Obispo County. But if it happens...

It would create a made-to-order Senate district for former Assemblyman Pedro Nava of Santa Barbara. It would take in all of his old Assembly district, include his base in Santa Barbara, and take in all of the Latino-majority areas in Ventura County. It will also have no incumbent currently living within its borders...

It would also create an opportunity for a Democrat in western Ventura County -- an opportunity that Oxnard Harbor District Commissioner Jason Hodge is already preparing to seize.

DOWN: Just about every proposal that has been suggested would tear apart Sen. Fran Pavley's existing 23rd District. It's almost a sure bet that Oxnard and Santa Monica won't be paired in a district, as they are now. No matter how things shake out, Pavley's going to be looking at a lot of new territory. If the scenario discussed above were to materialize, she might have to consider making her Oxnard Shores condo her primary residence and running in the same district that Nava likely his eyes on.

DOWN: It's no secret that Sen. Tony Strickland has long hoped for an opportunity to run for Congress. If the congressional scenario discussed above were to materialize, it would include most of Strickland's current Senate district, but take out its two most solidly Republican cities, Simi Valley and Santa Clarita. Without those cities, it would be a very tough district for a conservative such as Strickland.

NEUTRAL: If the legislative scenario discussed above were to be adopted, it would create a tougher Santa Barbara district for Democratic Assemblyman Das Williams, but one that would still be winnable. A more likely scenario is one that largely resembles his current district, only without its Oxnard portions. Again, that would be a less advantageous district for him, but still one that would favor a Democratic incumbent.

NEUTRAL: Under either legislative scenario, it would appear that incumbent Assemblyman Jeff Gorell of Camarillo would end up with a very winnable district. In one case, however, he would have to move, probably to Thousand Oaks. In the other, he would end up with Oxnard in his district, a development that would make his re-election campaign more challenging.

All of this is grossly speculative, but you can bet all of these politicians have been running and rerunning the various scenarios through their minds for months.

Reading the majority opinion in today's Supreme Court decision that ordered California to reduce its prison population to 137.5 percent of design capacity, and then reading the dissenting opinion by Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas makes one wonder if all nine justices were looking at the same set of facts.

In his majority opinion, Justice Anthony Kennedy notes that crowding is so extensive in California prisons that areas designed for inmate programs have been converted to housing units -- a fact that the state Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation conceded during the federal district court trial.

"As many as 200 prisoners may live in a gymnasium," Kennedy wrote.

Scalia and Thomas, however, appear to hold the outdated belief that gymasiums are still used for other purposes inside California prisons.

They wrote that as a result of the majority's opinion thousands of inmates may be released, and that "many will undoubtedly be fine physical specimens who have developed intimidating muscles pumping iron in the prison gym."

After all the demonstrations around the state last week by teachers and education supporters -- including a well-attended rally at Buena High Schoolo in Ventura -- seeking to build public support for extensions of temporary tax increases, conservatives this week are seeking to push back.

The Assembly Republican Caucus today released a list of local elected officials who are standing with them in their call to balance the state budget entirely through cuts, allowing the temporary tax increases to expire as scheduled on July 1.

The list includes two local elected officials from Ventura County, both of whom hail from Simi Valley: Supervisor Peter Foy and County School Board Trustee Dean Kunicki.

Teachers groups around the state are staging numerous protests and events this week, including a planned sit-in at the State Capitol later today, too call for tax extensions and perhaps other revenue measures to stave off potential reductions in education funding as part of next year's state budget.

Middle Class Defense Coalition Will Announce Formation
at 'We Are One' Rally in Ventura on Wednesday, May 11

The greatest strengths of a country lie with its working class. The Middle Class Defense Coalition is a bipartisan group of educators, trades people, public service providers, community groups and business people formed to elevate the level of the state and national dialogue about public services and the rights of working people.

"We all depend on good governmental structures. Police, fire, schools, roads, bridges, water systems, and other functions government provides are vital to maintaining our quality of life," said Steve Blum, Ventura County Community College District Trustee, and Coalition member.

Massive cuts to services on the state and federal level have put the focus on the workers who provide them rather than on the root of the problem -- a series of poor public policies which have allowed the health of our economy to deteriorate and pushed wealth away from the middle and lower classes and toward high-wage earners.

"We must maintain a strong and vibrant middle class. America became the greatest and most powerful nation on earth because it built a powerful middle class. Our nation requires a healthy middle class to keep the American Dream and the California Dream alive," Blum said.

Recent proposals to dismantle Social Security and Medicare will further erode safety nets for the poor and middle class. The Coalition will fight to stop the erosion of vital services and strive to improve conditions for the working people of California.

In Ventura County, a new organization called the Middle Class Defense Coalition plans a rally and march at Buena High School in Ventura at 4:30 Wednesday afternoon. Organizers are asking participants to wear red.

Kevin Riggs, the Oxnard-reared television news reporter whose career has taken him from Santa Barbara to Sacramento, is leaving journalism to join the Republican public relations firm Randle Communications, based in Sacramento.

Riggs, who was one of the moderators of the first Jerry Brown-Meg Whitman gubernatorial debate last fall, was the most respected television news reporter in the Capitol. Perhaps the last of his breed among local television news reporters in California, Riggs specialized in political and public affairs reporting and was widely respected for his in-depth understanding of the issues. It was no small feat for him to pull off inteliigent political reporting while working in a medium that emphasis crime, celebrity, traffic and weather news.

Among Randle Communications most recent high-profile clients was the Whitman gubernatorial campaign.

Jason Hodge of Oxnard, the 36-year-old political director of the Ventura County Firefighters Association and newly elected member of the Oxnard Harbor District Board of Commissioners, told me at the state Democratic convention over the weekend that he doesn't plan to wait around the see the new Assembly district maps. Since he's fairly convinced that there will be a new Oxnard-based district, he intends to form a committee very soon and launch a campaign for Assembly in 2012.

Hodge said he would not consider running against 35th District incumbent Democrat Das Williams, but that he believes the likelihood is that Williams will run in a district that includes mostly Santa Barbara County and perhaps the Ojai Valley. If such an Oxnard-based district is created, it would be district that favored Democrats -- meaning that Republican Assemblyman Jeff Gorell of Camarillo would likely move to Thousand Oaks to seek re-election in a new district that would favor Republicans.

Hodge's plan is based on a lot of assumptions, but as Gorell proved in 2010, it is advantageous for a serious candidate to declare early, line up endorsements from potentinal adversaries and try to create a sense of inevitability as your party's nominee.