The outline of a potentially bruising Democratic primary battle in the new 19th Senate District is taking shape, as key players are taking sides and beginning to assert their preferences for either Oxnard firefighter and Harbor District Commissioner Jason Hodge or former Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson of Santa Barbara.

Last week the Tri-Counties Building Trades labor group, which includes about 25 local unions representing such workers as electricians, laborers, sheetmetal workers and operating engineers, weighed in on Hodge's behalf. In a press release announcing the group's endorsement, business representative Tony Skinner wrote that although Hodge has yet to make a formal announcement, "We see no reason to wait to endorse Jason Hodge as the best leader to represent the working families of the Central Coast in Sacramento."

The announcement could portend further labor support for Hodge as the campaign develops.

On Monday, the Jackson camp countered with a from-the-heart fund-raising appeal from Assemblyman Das Williams of Santa Barbara, who called Jackson "my mentor."

Notably, Williams' appeal focused on education issues. "The biggest lesson that I took away from my first legislative session is how important it is to have legislators who are passionate about saving California's most precious resource: our public education system," he wrote.

That suggests that the California Teachers Associations, one of the most important labor groups that traditionally has participated heavily in Democratic primaries, is still in play.

With the decision over the weekend by Sen. Fran Pavley of Agoura Hills not to move to her Oxnard beach condo and run for re-election in the new 19th Senate District, the race between Democrats Hannah-Beth Jackson and Jason Hodge is officially on.

The new district takes in all of western Ventura County and southern Santa Barbara County.

That the race is on became evident yesterday, when Jackson campaign stratgegist Steve Barkan distributed to the media the results of a telephone poll conducted over the last four days of August. It shows Jackson, the former assemblywoman from Santa Barbara, with a 25-point lead over Hodge, the county fireman and Oxnard Harbor District commissioner. The lead is the same among near-certain voters (those who have voted in recent primaries) and a broader pool of likely voters.

"The main conclusion from the poll findings: that Hannah-Beth Jackson is clearly
the strongest Democratic candidate in this race," writes pollster Paul Goodwin in a memo to the Jackson campaign.

There's nothing surprising about the results. Jackson, after all, was elected three times to the Assembly in an area that encompasses much of the same turf as the new district, and four years ago spent $5 million in a mega-campaign for state Senate, which she narrowly lost to Republican Tony Strickland..Since early polls essentially measure voters' familiarity with the names of candidates, Jackson should at this point have a significant lead over Hodge, who has run only once, for a low-profile office, in only a small portion of the district.

Hodge offered this response in an email to reporters: "While I am a relative newcomer to elective office, I am pleased that I am off to a good start with 13 percent after just two weeks of active campaigning."

Hodge, of course, also offers up his own misleading spin. Just as it's disingenuous of the Jackson camp to suggest a poll that affirms her superior name ID makes her the "clearly the strongest" Democrat, Hodge's spin that the results show her to be weak because they have her trailing Republican Mike Stoker deserves a reality check. After all, the poll shows him trailing Stoker by 19 percent.

The significant number is the support of the two Democrats combined, since the district has an 18-point Democratic voter-registration advantage. The poll shows that the two Democrats combined have the support of 51 percent of voters, while Stoker has the support of 32 percent.

As a representative of the hometown newspaper, I was honored this afternoon to be perhaps the only reporter not associated with the debate sponsors (NBC and Politico) to be given a seat inside the debate hall. The rest of the pack was seated in a media tent equipped with a dozen television monitors.

There were about 400 people inside, including guests of the candidates and supporters of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation. The best seats in the center were directly beneath the fuselage of Air Force One, on permanent display in the presidential library in Simi Valley.

Overheard in my cheap-seat section at the far end of the stage, one foundation donor said that, since it appears the library will host GOP presidential debates in the future, he will consider upping his annual gift to the library from $50,000 to $100,000 in 2016 in order to get a better seat.

Sprinkled among the big donors were political celebrities as well, such as former Gov. Pete Wilson and renowned GOP message-master Frank Luntz.

Seats were also provided for a number of current and former local elected officials. Here's a list, perhaps incomplete, of county officials attending the debate: Simi Valley City Councilman Glen Becerra, Supervisor Peter Foy, Simi Valley Mayor Bob Huber, Thousand Oaks City Councilwoman Jacqui Irwin, Supervisor Linda Parks, former Assemblywoman Audra Strickland, and District Attorney Greg Totten.

Sen. Fran Pavley has decided against moving to her Oxnard beach condo and running for re-election in the new 19th Senate District, which includes western Ventura County and southern Santa Barbara County. That decision ends the uncertainty for Oxnard Harbor District Commissioner Jason Hodge, who had agreed to defer to the incumbent Democrat had she decided to run in the district.

It also sets up a potentially very expensive primary contest between Hodge and former Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson of Santa Barbara. The race could be an interesting test of the dynamics of the new top-two primary system, in which all voters will be able to make one selection from all the candidates, regardless of party. If no strong Republican steps forward in the heavily Democratic district (former Santa Barbara Supervisor Mike Stoker is considering it), it could create an opportunity for Hodge to finish in the top two without having to outpoll Jackson among Democrats.

As for Pavley, she told me today that she will be running in the much more competitive 27th Senate District, which takes in eastern Ventura County and the western San Fernando Valley, and is also the home of Republican incumbent Tony Strickland.

There is a caveat, however, for each of them. Strickland might decide to run instead for Congress in the event Rep. Elton Gallegly decides to retire, and Pavley might also decide instead to run for Congress if Supervisor Steve Bennett of Ventura decides against it.

There are many interrelated decisions yet to be made, and the time to start organizing campaigns and raising money has already begun. Add to that the fact that Republicans are sponsoring referenda in an attempt to block the new state Senate and congressional maps from taking effect, and, even if they succeed in getting the necessary signatures, the uknown factor of whether the Supreme Court would allow the new districts to stay in place for the 2012 elections. It all adds up to an immense amount of uncertainty.

Sen. Fran Pavley, often mentioned as a potential Democratic candidate in the new, open congressional district in Ventura County, told me this morning she has ruled out running for Congress.

Her decision, coupled with the earlier decision of Rep. Brad Sherman not to move up from the San Fernando Valley to run in the new district, likely opens the door for new Democratic candidates to step forward.

It has already attracted two Democrats, Moorpark City Councilman David Pollock and Westlake Village tennis instructor and businessman David Cruz Thayne, but with Pavley out it can be expected that Supervisor Steve Bennett of Ventura will take a harder look at entering the race. The same might also be true of Assemblywoman Julia Brownley who, although she lives in Santa Monica, represents Port Hueneme and half of Oxnard in the Legislature.

As for Pavley, she said she's still torn between what she called "two good choices" -- either running in the Senate district that includes her longtime in Agoura Hills or the one next door that includes her weekend beach condo in Oxnard. The ultimate decision will depend in large part on whether former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg decides to run in the east Ventura County-west San Fernando Valley district.

Pavley acknowledged that the indecision must be settled fairly quickly, as it affects the plans of Oxnard Harbor Commissioner Jason Hodge and former Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson, both of whom are making plans to run in the west Ventura County-Santa Barbara district. She said she hopes to make a decision "sooner, rather than later," and that the unsettled situation should make for "an interesting Labor Day picnic" for Ventura County Democrats.