Supervisor Steve Bennett, who has been the subject of speculation about his potentially reassessing his decision to run for Congress, sent out an email fundraising blast to supporters today -- and the wording of it certainly sounds like someone who's serious.

"As your next Congressman, I'll keep fighting the same way I've fought for you on the Board of Supervisors," the letter says. "I am deeply grateful for the support you have given me as Ventura County Supervisor, and I promise to fight just as hard as your next representative in Congress."

He signs the letter, "Steve Bennett, Ventura County supervisor, Candidate for the U.S.House of Representatives."

Don't know whether this will put an end to the speculation, but it's clear that as the Dec. 31 reporting deadline for fourth-quarter fundraising for federal candidates approaches, Bennett intends to finish strong in that department.

Perhaps when all the dust has settled, resolving the who's-in, who's-out uncertainty in the 26th District Congressional race, Moorpark City Councilman David Pollock will emerge as the local political version of The Little Engine That Could.

Pollock was the first candidate to declare and has quietly gone about his business since. He's a former president of the California School Boards Association, and today he released a list of endorsements that suggest he's consolidating the education community in Ventura County. The list includes Ventura County Board of Education President Mark Lisagor, who was with him from the outset, but also includes 23 board members of school districts across the county from Ojai to Thousand Oaks.

Especially if the Democratic field ends up being a multi-candidate affair, having a strong base among a specific constituency could be a real bonus for Pollock.

In other endorsement news, file this one in the no-suspense file. The California Professional Firefighters announced it is endorsing one of its own -- Ventura County firefighter Jason Hodge -- in the 19th Senate District.

It's an appropriate endorsement, because Hodge is the real deal: an actual, working firefighter, and the son of a firefighter. Although Hodge also serves as political director of the Ventura County Professional Firefighters union, he does not receive paid time off for that job. As a consequence, he's still manning a fire station full time. His political work does keep him occupied, of course, and he tells me he believes he is the lowest paid firefighter in Ventura County because unlike nearly all the others he does not take overtime.

Hodge has gained a lot of union support is his campaign against former Santa Barbara Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson, but Jackson picked up significant labor endorsements this week from the California School Employees Association, the Communication Workers of America Southern California Council and the United Farm Workers.

In an earlier post, and more expansively in my column last week in The Star, I wrote about the touch-and-go status of the Republican Party referendum challenging the Citizens Redistricting Commission's Senate district maps -- and whether supporters will be able to argue before the Supreme Court next month that their ballot measure is "likely to qualify."

Since last week column's was written, several counties -- including Ventura -- have competed their random counts of signatures. It's been mostly good news for the referendum's backers. Bolstered by an 82.9 percent validity rate in San Diego County, the statewide validity rate now stands at 73.32 percent -- slightly above the 72.6 rate they would need to argue with a straight face that their measure is likely to qualify. Ventura County's totals didn't help the cause; only 69.4 percent of the 17,768 signatures filed in Ventura County were deemed to be valid after a check of a random sample.

Counties must compete their random counts by Jan. 10. It will all come down to the remaining four large Southern California counties -- Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside. About 327,000 of the measure's 709,000 signatures -- or nearly half -- came from those four counties.

A group called Americans Elect today became the first new political party to gain ballot status in California since 1995 -- a development that helps set the stage for a potential third-party candidacy for president next fall.

The group has already qualified for the ballot in 11 other states and says it is on track to get on the ballot in all 50 states. It promises to hold an online nominating process, and its existence has generated speculation about a potential high-profile third party candidate, with names such as New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, former Utah Gov. Jon Hunstmanamong those in the rumor mill.

The party qualified by submitting more than 1,030,040 signatures of registered voters registered voters (10 percent of the total number of votes cast in the November 2010 general election), the secretary of state announced today.

The possibility of a third party candidacy next is now very real. The group says it does not seek to play a spolier role to specifically hurt the nominee of either major party, but rather that its intent is to give American voters a broader array of choices.

Rumors abound in Ventura County political circles that Supervisor Steve Bennett of Ventura is reassessing his decision to run for Congress and thinking instead of running for re-election to the Board of Supervisors. I've heard that rumor from five separate sources this week. As with all rumors, it's hard to know whether they all spring from a single source. But two of the people I've talked with said they've had direct communication with Bennett during which the possibility was at least discussed.

When I asked Bennett about them today, his response was that he is "focused on my congressional campaign" and to say that he believes it is going well on a number of fronts, including fundraising.

The source of all this speculation is likely concern among some of Bennett's supporters that his decision to run for Congress could put control of his seat on the Board of Supervisors in peril -- potentially changing the makeup of the board. Although county supervisor is a nonpartisan office, it's no secret that Democrats have held at least a 3-2 majority on the board for decades, as they do now.

As soon as Bennett announced for Congress, Fire Chief Bob Roper announced his intent to run for the First District seat. Roper, a Republican, came out of the starting blocks with endorsements from many of the county GOP's heavy-hitters, including former District Attorney Mike Bradbury, Congressman Elton Gallegly and Supervisor Peter Foy of Simi Valley.

Many of those who have supported Bennett on the board are concerned about Roper's candidacy -- especially since it is possible that both former Ventura Mayor Richard Francis and Ventura Councilman Brian Brennan, will each run, potentially splitting the Democratic vote.

One circumstantial piece of evidence that Bennett may be reassessing his decision is that Brennan, who is an aide on Bennett's county staff, has held off making any announcement about his plans. That indicates he may be giving his boss some room to maneuver.

Should he decide to drop out of the congressional race, Bennett's reputation will certainly take a hit, although it is not clear how heavy that hit might be. He would certainly open himself up to allegations that he is wishy-washy and indecisive, and the conventional wisdom -- right or wrong -- would likely be that he essentially chickened out of what will be a tough campaign for Congress.

The California Supreme Court today issued an order to show cause whether the court should intervene to stop implementation of the new Senate district maps approved in August by the Citizens Redistricting Commission. The court ordered an extemely expedited review, saying it will hear oral arguments in early January and issue an opinion by the end of January, so that no delay will disrupt the 2012 primary election calendar.

At issue will be the definition of the word "likely."

A Republican Party-sponsored group launched a referendum in an attempt to ask voters next year to overturn the Senate maps (but not those for the Assembly or Congress.) It collected more than 700,000 signatures, but still in question is whether the petitions it submitted contained the necessary number of valid signatures of registered voters (504,760). It will need a validity rate of 67.6 percent, determined by a random sampling conducted by county elections officials, in order to trigger a handcount of all the signatures. That process, if it is determined necessary, could not be completed until March. Through the middle of this week, with some counties yet to report, it had a validity rate of 68.78 percent.

So now the question for the court to determine is what constitutes "likely." The language of Proposition 20 states: "Any registered voter in this state may also file a petition for a writ of mandate or writ of prohibition to seek relief where a certified final map is subject to a referendum measure that is likely to qualify and stay the timely implementation of the map."

The needed 67.6 percent validity rate would mean the random sample determined that 95 percent of the signatures were valid, meaning that the handcount would have to show a higher percentage of valid signatures than the random sample revealed. If that threshold is reached, can the court then conclude that the qualification of the referendum is "likely"? If it makes that determination, the court would then have to determine what maps would be used for the 2012 elections. If the referendum in fact qualifies, voters would determine the fate of the commission maps next November.

Webster's defines "likely" as "in all probability." Dictionary.com says "apparently destined." Those seem fairly high standards, given that the final count will mean that the qualification of the initiative will come down to 1 or 2 percent of the total signatures.

It should make for some interesting arguments. Justices would be wise to bring their calculators into the courtroom.

Some notable developments along the campaign trail this week...

LATINO APPEAL: 26th Congressional District Democratic candidate David Cruz Thayne scored a coup, and perhaps tipped his hand about his strategy in the coming primary, by landing the endorsement of Assemblyman Tony Mendoza, chair of the Latino Legislative Caucus.

Thayne, who is the son of an Uruguayan immigrant mother and was raised in a bilingual household, appears to be focusing intently on the Latino vote, which makes up about a quarter of the new district's electorate. During a trip to Washington, D.C., earlier this fall, he met with members of the Latino caucus in Congress.

"David Cruz Thayne is a bright, young, bilingual and energetic candidate who is
a great fit for the fast-changing demographics of Ventura County," Mendoza said in a statement released by the Thayne campaign. "He is the Democrats' best choice to lead the fight in November to rid the U.S.Congress of Rep. Elton Gallegly and his non-stop immigrant-bashing."

The campaign also announced that Mendoza will host an event for Thayne in Oxnard "in the near future."

In a race that includes three Democrats, any candidate who could stand out among Latino voters would significantly boost his chances, since Latinos are an even larger segment of Democratic voters in the district.

STRONG ENDORSEMENTS FOR JACKSON: There's no question that the upcoming 19th Senate District primary between Democrats Hannah-Beth Jackson of Santa Barbara and Jason Hodge of Oxnard will be portrayed as a progressive-vs.-moderate battle, with Jackson being the progressive. Hodge has secured the endorsements of blue-collar unions that generally favor pro-business Democrats over those closely aligned with the environmental community, as Jackson is.

So Jackson's announcement this week of the endorsements of Supervisor Kathy Long of Camarillo and former Ventura Mayor Bill Fulton are especially big for her. No one has ever credibly accused those two of being wild-eyed liberals, and their endorsements signify the kind of mainstream support that Jackson will need, especially in the Ventura County portion of the district.

"Hannah-Beth has proven that she stands up to the special interests for her constituents," Long said in a statement released by the Jackson campaign.

CAUSE for a cause: The Ventura-based community organizaing group Central Coast Alliance United for a Sustainable Economy (CAUSE) has joined a coalition of community groups around the state backing a proposed ballot initiative that would raise state income taxes on those earning $1 million or more. The proposal would generate about $6 billion a year and would be used, as CAUSE officials say in their announcement "to restore critical funding to schools and universities, essential services for seniors, public safety, and to start rebuilding the state's crumbling roads and bridges."

Expect some hard negotiating among Democratic interest groups over that proposal in the next few weeks, as efforts will be made to try to unite groups behind a single tax proposal for next November's ballot -- either the "millionaires' tax" backed by CAUSE or a broader proposal by Gov. Jerry Brown to raise income taxes by lesser amounts on those with incomes starting at $250,000 and to implement a half-cent increase in the sales tax. Brown's proposal is for a five-year temporary increase; the millionaires' tax would be permanent.

A recent poll done by the Ventura County Transportation Commission led the panel to put off the idea of seeking a countywide sales tax increase for transportation projects, as it indicated the measure couldn't generate the necessary two-thirds majority support. Within the poll were some questions that shed some interesting light on how voters in the county -- and in different areas within the county -- think about the Board of Supervisors and their local city council.

Among the more noteworthy findings: Voters in John Zaragoza's Oxnard-based district are most likely to say they are satisfied with the Board of Supervisors. The 57-point support in that district is 11 points higher than in the lowest-ranked district, Steve Bennett's Ventura-based district. What's the explanation? For one, Latino voters across the board -- nationally, statewide and at the local level -- are more likely to be generally supportive of government, and Zaragoza's district has the highest concentration of Latinos. Also, Bennett's county-seat district has the highest concentration of county employees, and the results likely reflect a bit of typical employee grumbling about their bosses.

The more dramatic swings are in the level of support for their local city councils among voters from different cities. They range from a high -- 72 percent! -- in Camarillo, to a low of 40 percent in Oxnard, where the cloud of a corruption investigation clearly has jolted the confidence of voters in their local elected officials.

Interestingly, breaking down the sentiment by political afflilation, there was almost no difference in sastisfaction with the Board of Supervisors: 48-15 to the good among Democrats, 48-11 among Republicans and 50-14 among independents.

The telephone poll of 600 high frequency voters also provides some useful insight about the nature of independent voters in the county, who made up 20 percent of the sample (which is almost exactly their percentage among the electorate). It shows that, as is typical in coastal California counties, independents align much closely on issues with Democrats than with Republicans.

Consider the splits when asked to rank whether certain issues were a "high," "medium" or "low" priority.

On the question of improving public schools, 76 percent of Democrats and 76 percent of independents ranked that as a high priority. Just 55 percent of Republicans felt that way.

On the question of reducing global warming and air pollution, 65 percent of Democrats ranked that as high. That dropped off among independents to 46 percent and fell all the way down to 21 percent among Republicans.

On the question of reducing the size of government, 26 percent of Democrats and 36 percent of independents ranked that as a high priority -- but two-thirds of Republicans (66 percent) pegged that as a high priority. That issue ranked higher among GOP voters than preserving ag lands and open space, preventing pollution at local beaches, relieving traffic congestion or improving local schools.

The Tri-Counties Central Labor Council, the umbrella AFL-CIO organize that encompasses most labor unions in Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counites, on Friday voted to endorse Oxnard Harbor District Commissioner Jason Hodge of Oxnard over former Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson in the 19th Senate District.

It's a significant endorsement because it helps to consolidate Hodge's institutional support among organized labor -- he had already received the backing of the Police Officers Research Association and the Tri-Counties Building Trades. Also, it expresses a clear choice in a race in which there are multiple viable Democratic candidates. In contract, the council chose to remain "open" in the 26th Congressional District, meaning each of the three Democrats are "viable labor candidates and are free to seek local union endorsements."

In the Senate race, however, the labor group made its preference clear. "We need a strong, unifying voice for working people," Executive Secretary-Treasurer Marilyn Valenzuela said in a press release issued after the decision. "Jason has a long history of fighting for the middle class. As a former businessman and teacher and now firefighter, Jason understands the difficulties families face in these post-recessionary times."

Jackson said she was unsurprised by the vote, and attributed it mainly to labor sticking with one of its own, as Hodge is the political director for the county firefighters' union and active statewide with the California Professional Firefighters. "These are his colleagues," she said.

In his statement, Hodge sought to use the endorsement to further emphasize the theme of his campaign -- that he is a fresh face while Jackson is emblematic of traditional politics. "Every day these hard working people are feeling the failure of politics as usual and I'm honored to be entrusted with their support," Hodge said.

The endorsement also reflects a lingering division among Democrats that first arose two years ago in the Das Williams-Susan Jordan Assembly primary. Williams and Jackson are closely aligned. "There was coordinated effort to get him that endorsement," Jackson said of the council's backing of Hodge.

Jackson has the backing of the maverick California Nurses Association and says she expects to be able to soon announce additional labor support.

There is no doubt some awkward tension on the Ventura County Board of Supervisors, with Steve Bennett of Ventura running for Congress as a Democrat and Linda Parks of Thousand Oaks strongly hinting that she intends to run as a Republican if incumbent Rep. Elton Gallegly decides against running in the new 26th Congressional District.

But at least the two now have something in common to commisserate about.

Parks went public earlier this fall with the revelation that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had submitted a voluminous public records request to the county seeking all manner of details about her email logs, phone and travel expenses and office operations. The request, she joked, sought to find out everything about her except her "weight and shoe size."

Bennett now finds himself in the same boat. A Wshington, D.C.-based outfit called Freedom of Information Associates submitted a nearly identical laundry list of records requests on Bennett on Nov. 23 (a copy of which was sent to me anonymously today).

It has become an almost rote step in political campaigns. It seems a tiresome abuse of public records laws that were designed to shine some useful sunlight on government operations for political hacks to routinely conduct such fishing expeditions, forcing clerks for local government agencies to round up reams of random documents.