The California Supreme Court today issued an order to show cause whether the court should intervene to stop implementation of the new Senate district maps approved in August by the Citizens Redistricting Commission. The court ordered an extemely expedited review, saying it will hear oral arguments in early January and issue an opinion by the end of January, so that no delay will disrupt the 2012 primary election calendar.

At issue will be the definition of the word "likely."

A Republican Party-sponsored group launched a referendum in an attempt to ask voters next year to overturn the Senate maps (but not those for the Assembly or Congress.) It collected more than 700,000 signatures, but still in question is whether the petitions it submitted contained the necessary number of valid signatures of registered voters (504,760). It will need a validity rate of 67.6 percent, determined by a random sampling conducted by county elections officials, in order to trigger a handcount of all the signatures. That process, if it is determined necessary, could not be completed until March. Through the middle of this week, with some counties yet to report, it had a validity rate of 68.78 percent.

So now the question for the court to determine is what constitutes "likely." The language of Proposition 20 states: "Any registered voter in this state may also file a petition for a writ of mandate or writ of prohibition to seek relief where a certified final map is subject to a referendum measure that is likely to qualify and stay the timely implementation of the map."

The needed 67.6 percent validity rate would mean the random sample determined that 95 percent of the signatures were valid, meaning that the handcount would have to show a higher percentage of valid signatures than the random sample revealed. If that threshold is reached, can the court then conclude that the qualification of the referendum is "likely"? If it makes that determination, the court would then have to determine what maps would be used for the 2012 elections. If the referendum in fact qualifies, voters would determine the fate of the commission maps next November.

Webster's defines "likely" as "in all probability." Dictionary.com says "apparently destined." Those seem fairly high standards, given that the final count will mean that the qualification of the initiative will come down to 1 or 2 percent of the total signatures.

It should make for some interesting arguments. Justices would be wise to bring their calculators into the courtroom.