The poll that 19th Senate District Democratic candidate Jason Hodge released yesterday (see previous post) has created quite a buzz in political circles in Sacramento and on the Central Coast. Much of the attention has focused on the surprising numbers revealed in hypothetical head-to-head November matchups between Hodge and presumed Republican candidate Mike Stoker and between Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson and Stoker.

The numbers showed Stoker beating Jackson 47 percent to 42 percent and Stoker and Hodge in a virtual deadheat.

Those results boosted Stoker's confidence yesterday, as he sent an email to supporters asserting, "You know I am not spinning the strength of our campaign when I am using poll results from one of my Democrat opponents."

The only problem, as Hodge campaign strategist Richie Ross told me today, is that the head-to-head numbers from the poll are essentially meaningless.

The voter sample Ross chose to poll included only those voters who cast ballots in at least one of the two most recent very low turnout elections -- the 2008 statewide primary, which was split from the presidential primary, and the 2009 special election. That standard produced a polling sample that included 44 percent Democrats, 39 percent Republicans and 17 percent decline-to-states. That created a 5-point Democratic lead in the polling sample -- in a district in which Democrats hold a 12-point voter-registration advantage.

While Ross' turnout scenario is entirely realistic for the June primary, it is far off the mark in reflecting turnout for the November presidential election -- when any actual head-to-head matchups would take place.

"I didn't poll the November universe," Ross told me.

So, while the poll did suggest that Jackson has some potential weaknesses, it does not necessarily reflect the sentiment of voters who will decide the contest in November.

Oxnard Senate candidate Jason Hodge, who is hosting a campaign fundraiser in Sacramento this afternoon, created quite a buzz in state political circles yesterday with the release of selected results from a private campaign poll that painted a disconcerting picture for Democrats in the new 19th Senate District.

Hodge is running against fellow Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson of Santa Barbara. Republican Mike Stoker, a former Santa Barbara County supervisor who ran unsuccessfully for Assembly two years ago, is widely expected to announce his candidacy soon.

An email from the Hodge campaign says, "The polarization issues that resulted in Hannah Beth Jackson's defeat four years ago after an $4 million effort on her behalf, continue to be a drag on her prospects and a danger to Democratic success."

The poll shows Stoker leading Jackson in a head-to-head matchup, 47 percent to 42 percent. Notable from Hodge's perspective is that the results show him to be in a virtual tie with Stoker in a head-to-head matchup.

That result is raising some eyebrows among political analysts, given that Democrats have a 12 percentage-point voter registration advantage in the district and that Barack Obama carried it by 23 points four years ago.

Jackson campaign consultant Steve Barkan told me today that the results of the Hodge's poll are "utterly inconsistent with what we've seen," and said that a poll taken by Jackson last year showed her to be comfortably ahead of Stoker in a head-to-head matchup.

What to believe? I've been hearing some pretty dubious claims from a variety of candidates and their campaigns in recent weeks about selective alleged results from their private polling. In this case, I've got to give Hodge high marks for transparency because he allowed me this morning to read over the entire poll, on the condition that I keep some of it confidential.

What Hodge didn't share, and said he didn't know, was how the universe of 400 "likely voters" was arrived at and the partisan makeup of the survey field it produced. The choice of voting history information used to define a "likely voter" can dramatically affect any poll's results.

But there was one finding that jumped out. It showed that Jackson's favorability rating was not good: 29 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable, 27 percent didn't know her.
That middle numble -- unfavorability -- is extraordinary high for a candidate running for a relatively low profile office.

Although I haven't seen data, I've heard summaries of recent polling in the area that shows Republican Sen. Tony Strickland of Moorpark with similarly high unfavorable ratings.

What that suggests is that the bruising, negative, $11 million campaign between Strickland and Jackson four years ago may have inflicted permanent damage upon both of them. It doesn't make either unelectable, but the notoriety generated during the previous campaign does create a handicap for both.

Barkan, although he wouldn't reveal numbers, said Jackson's own polling showed her favorable-unfavorable ratings to be significantly "rightside-up." Still, he acknowledged that what remains after the 2008 campaign is "a highly polarized district."

Given Simi Valley's enduring reputation for being the home of interesting politics, it was inevitable that when the city got placed in new Assembly district detached from the rest of Ventura County, the race would be far from boring.

As the National Journal reports today , the contest in the new 38th District between Republicans Scott Wilk, a former aide to Rep. Buck McKeon, and Patricia McKeon, the congressman's wife, has the potential to get both personal and nasty.

In addition, a serious Democratic candidate has emerged -- a rarity in districts such as this, in which Republicans hold a strong voter-registration advantage. He is Edward Headington, , owner of a public relations firm in Granada Hills and a serious student of public policy who has worked for such varied political figures as former Republican Mayor Richard Riordan of Los Angeles and former San Fernando Valley Assemblyman Scott Wildman.

I had a visit from Headington yesterday in Sacramento, and he comes across as a conservative Democratic, befitting someone who has worked as public affairs manager for the National Small Business Association and lists as his top priorities "job creation, workforce education, budget reform and public safety."

Headington recognizes that the campaign will be a tough road for a Democrat, but with a potentially ugly intraparty battle between Wilk and Patricia McKeon developing, things could get interesting. The district is roughly split into three distinct sections: Simi Valley, Santa Clarita, and the San Fernando Valley. Wilk and McKeon are from Santa Clarita, and Headington hails from the Valley and is a board member of the Granada Hills North Neighborhood Council. Given that geography, all the candidates figure Simi Valley is up for grabs.

In primary campaigns, endorsements are very precious things for first-time candidates for the Legislature -- especially endorsements from sitting members of the Legislature whose districts overlap the one in which you're running. So it was a very big deal earlier this year when Republican candidate Scott Wilk in the new 38th Assembly District (Simi Valley-Santa Clarita) landed the endorsement of Tony Strickland, the state senator who now represents the same area.

Wilk and Strickland both once worked on the legislative staff of Tom McClintock and have known each other a long time. Until recently, Strickland employed Wilk's son in his Senate office.

But then things changed. Rep. Elton Gallegly announced his retirement. Strickland decided to run for Congress. At that point, his endorsement of Wilk became a potential problem for Strickland. Here's why: Wilk's GOP opponent is Patricia McKeon, the wife of Rep. Buck McKeon of Santa Clarita. In addition, Patricia McKeon is using the same strategist in her Assembly race as Strickland is using in his congressional campaign, Joe Justin.
All that, no doubt, created complications.

So Wilk, graciously, on Tuesday issued a press release saying he is releasing Strickland from his endorsement.

"Tony is long-time friend and has been one of my biggest supporters," Wilk said in the release. "I fully understand that since he is now seeking the congressional seat in the 26th district there are different factors he has to consider when it comes to where he places his endorsements. Because I consider Tony a good friend and want to see him do well in his congressional race I offered to release him from his endorsement."

Classy.

It was inevitable that internal tension would surface this year between Assemblyman Das Williams of Santa Barbara, a close ally of former Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson, and Assemblywoman Fiona Ma of San Francisco, the newly wed wife of Oxnard Harbor District Commissioner Jason Hodge.

The reason: Jackson and Hodge, both Democrats, are running against each other in the 19th Senate District primary.

It took only a week for that tension to flare. On Jan. 11 a bill authored by Williams designed to speed the process through which state regulators establish control measures for the use of chemicals in pesticides that have been determined to be "toxic air contaminants" was defeated. It was voted down in the Assembly Agricultural Committee, in part because Ma voted against it.

Williams notes that the bill, which had been defeated last year in the same committee, had been substantially watered down to meet the concerns of agricultural industry opponents that it would have placed an unreasonable timetable on the scientific review of pesticides. A committee analysis shows that the 2011 opposition from the California Farm Bureau Federation, the Western Growers Association, California Citrus Mutual and others had been removed as a result of the changes.

He asserts that Ma's opposition -- a relatively rare phenomenon of a Democrat voting against another Democrat's bill in policy committee -- was motivated by the politics of the Senate campaign. He told me last week that he thought it was beyond the pale for Ma to cast a politically tainted vote against a bill supported by environmental and farm worker advocacy groups across the state, including Ventura County's Central Coast Allliance United for a Sustainable Economy (CAUSE).

Ma told me today that Williams' allegations are off base. She noted that she did not vote for the bill in committee last year (she abstained then), that she based her vote on the belief that the Department of Pesticide Regulation is already working as quickly as it can to evaluate the chemicals, and that the committee's Democratic chairwoman, Cathleen Galgiani , also voted against the bill.

She also pointed out that a different Williams bill, one that would have imposed restrictions on trucks using Highway 33, had been voted down in the Assembly Transportation Commission that same week as a result of Democratic opposition.

"For him to say Democrats never vote against Democrats is totally wrong," Ma told me. "He cries foul, but it's not truthful."

Scott Lay, who operates the Election Track website that monitors California political contributions, provided some interesting insight today into the fundraising prowess of Ventura County state Sen. Tony Strickland. Writing in his daily email newsletter The Nooner, Lay writes:

"Between October and December, the Stanislaus Republican Central Committee gave $110,000 to Strickland's state senate account, $30,000 each in October and November and $50,000 in December. Where did this relatively poor county's dough come from? Well, on June 30 of last year, the party received $280,000, almost all as a transfer from the 'California Republican Leadership Fund.' The original donors to that committee were a who's who of California poltiical money -- Farmer's Insurance ($72.5k), the tribe that owns Cache Creek ($25k), California Medical Association ($35k), Anthem Blue Cross ($35k). Of course, they couldn't give that money directly to Strickland and everybody wins because these interest groups can far exceed the spending limits while avoiding blame for choosing sides in a hot race.

"As of September 30, the California Republican Leadership Fund reported $498,904 in 'earmarked contributions' to the Stanislaus Republican Central Committee, $106,796 to Tulare's party committee, and $249,300 to the San Luis Obispo party committee. In turn, each party committee then pays administrative fees to the CRLF.

"The only question now is, what does Strickland do with the money, since he can't use it for his congressional bid?"

The answer to Lay's question will likely have to wait until April, when Strickland files his first congressional campaign finance report. But Strickland told me this week that he had returned much of the money from his Senate account to donors. A day later, he reported having raised more than $300,000 on the first day of his congressional campaign. It will be interesting to see how much, if any, of that money went back and forth between one Strickland committee, the Stanislaus County GOP, and a new Strickland committee.

Democratic congressional candidate David Pollock, playing off both his current role as an underdog in the 26th District and his childhood role as a member of the "Bad News Bears" baseball squad, has produced a clever internet ad that depicts a rigged baseball game between the 1 percent (all wearing uniform No. 1) and the 99 percent (all wearing uniform No. 99).

The bankers pull out all the stops, but -- spoiler alert -- there's a certain underdog who in the end foils their plans.

It's the latest evidence that Pollock, a member of the Moorpark City Council, is waging a dogged, smart campaign in a race in which the bigger names (Steve Bennett, Linda Parks, Tony Strickland) are getting most of the public attention. It looks as if he intends to make the most of being an underdog.

New York Congressman Steve Israel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, today announced that Ventura County's new 26th District is one of 19 nationwide his party has designated as "red-to-blue districts" that will be targeted as part of a strategy to regain control of House of Representatives.

"The seat was already a tossup, but the retirement of Elton Gallegly makes it even more competitive," Israel said in a conference call with reporters.
He said the DCCC will remain "agnostic" in the primary, but that if the Democratic candidate who prevails in the primary meets established benchmarks for fundraising and campaign mobilization he will be placed on a national priority list for funding from Democratic contributors.

Israel said the creation of new, competitive districts in the 2011 redistricting plan will likely result in at least four Democratic pickups in 2012. "Our chances of taking the House back largely depend on California," he said.

As a sign that Republicans are taking the new district just as seriously, Sen. Tony Strickland today announced that he raised $317,915 in a single day after launching his campaign on Tuesday. Strickland had a similar amount in his campaign committee for re-election to the state Senate, but none of that money could be transferred to his new federal committee. He said he returned much of the money from his state account to donors, but it was not immediately clear how many of them then turned around and wrote new checks to his congressional campaign.

Sen. Tony Strickland's announcement this morning that he will be a candidate in Ventura County's new 26th Congressional District prompted me to pull out the Ventura County statement of vote from the 2008 election to do a back-of-the-envelope assessment of how much more challenging the new congressional district might be for him in a general election than was his current Senate District.

Strickland prevailed in a free-wheeling, big-spending campaign for that Senate seat over former Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson of Santa Barbara by a mere 857 votes out of more than 415,000 cast. He won in large part because he carried the Ventura County portion of the district by 11,342 votes.

But what happens when you subtract the votes from heavily Republican Simi Valley -- a city that is not in the new congressional district? When you take that out, his margin of victory among voters in the five cities that are in both the old Senate district and the new congressional district -- Camarillo, Moorpark, Ojai, Thousand Oaks and Ventura -- Strickland's margin dips to 2,045.

Now, what happens when you look at the separate Senate district results from the four cities that are in the new congressional district but weren't in Strickland's Senate district? The combined margin of Democratic candidates over Republicans in those four cities -- Fillmore, Oxnard, Port Hueneme and Santa Paula -- was 24,296.

Put those two numbers together, and Democrats running for state Senate in the nine county cities that are in the new congressional district won by 9.2 percent.

As I say, this is back-of-the-envelope stuff, but it strongly suggests that Strickland -- if he is able to advance out of the primary -- will have a much tougher hill to climb in November 2012 than he did in November 2008.

Further evidence of the difference between the two districts was the vote margin of President Barack Obama among voters in those two districts. Obama carried both -- the old Senate District by 13.1 percentage points, but by a higher margin of 15.1 points in the new congressional district.

Needless to say, one can expect Strickland to campaign hard on issues other than the conservative fiscal issues he has always championed. Four years ago, reaching out to liberal and moderate voters, he campaigned on the issue of promoting alternative energy -- even billing himself on the ballot as a "renewable energy businessman." It should be no surprise, then, that at this morning's announcement press conference Strickland again struck the renewable energy theme.

"Dependence on foreign energy sources makes our energy prices vulnerable and too reliant on unstable and sometimes hostile foreign regimes. We can no longer afford to fund both sides of a war. Energy independence is truly a national security issue," he said.

Expect to hear much more on that -- and also perhaps some other issues that might appeal to moderates -- in the months ahead as Strickland campaigns in a district that is tougher for a Republican than any district in which he has run before.

Rep. Elton Gallegly , whose announcement on Friday night that he will retire at the end of this term will trigger competition among Republicans in the race to succeed him, told me on Saturday that he expects to remain neutral during the primary campaign.

Asked if he intended to support any candidate to succeed him, Gallegly said he has "no intentions at this time."

There have long been reports of bad blood between Gallegly and the likely GOP favorite to replace him, Sen. Tony Strickland of Moorpark, but to whatever degree that may have once been true it appears to be a non-factor now. Strickland helped to mend those fences back in 2006 -- without being asked -- when he helped engineer a turnover in the County Republican Central Committee to endorse Gallegly for re-election, after a botched retirement attempt by Gallegly had led the panel's former chairwoman to back the incumbent's GOP challenger.

In addition, Gallegly's once very close close relationship with Simi Valley City Councilman Glen Becerra, a potential congressional candidate, has become somewhat strained after, first, Becerra declined to step forward when Gallegly asked him on short notice to run in 2006 at the time he had decided to retire based on health concerns that turned out to be not a serious as first thought. Then Becerra backed his City Council collegeague Steve Sojka over his Gallegly-endorsed opponent, Bob Huber, in the 2010 mayor's race. And finally, District Attorney Greg Totten, who is very close to Gallegly, has decided not to get into the race to for Congress.

So now Gallegly, who had in the past been accused by critics of trying to orchestrate who his successor would be, intends to stay on the sidelines during the coming primary.

Like all experienced politicians, however, Gallegly reserved the right to change his mind as the situation develops. "I never say never ... to anything that's legal," he told me.

The story of Newbury Park's Ferial Masry, a Saudi Arabian immigrant who has three times been the Democratic candidate in Ventura County's 37th Assembly District, has always been a favorite at the U.S. State Department.

American diplomates have used her story as a shining example to Saudian Arabian women specifically, and to Muslim women generally, of how opportunity in American society has no gender or religious limits.

The department recently spotlighted Masry's story again with a story from its Bureau of International Information Programs, under the headline "Saudi-American Woman Champions Democracy."

The story notes that Masry was born "in the birthplace of the prophet Muhammad." It singles out a quote about the U.S. Constitition that Masry gave to ABC News in a profile it did on her: "It's a very small document -- 7,000 words, five pages -- but what it had in it is something visionary and beautiful. It really emphasized not to put the power into one man or one group."

Stories such as hers no doubt have helped to fuel the rising passion for democracy in the Middle East.

An analysis of the political district maps created by the Citizens Redistricting Commission done by UC San Diego political scientist Vladimir Kogan and Public Policy Institutue of California scholar Eric McGhee has determined that the commission did a good job of carrying out its mission.

Among their conclusions: "There is little doubt that the maps produced by the CRC, and the process through which these plans came about, represented an important improvement on the Legislature-led redistricting of 2001. The new district boundaries kept more communities together and created more compact districts while at the same time increasing opportunities for minority representation. If these maps survive the coming referendum and legal challenges, they have the potential to modestly increase competition in California elections and the responsiveness of the legislative branch to changing voter preferences."

The publication of study comes as the state Supreme Court prepares to hear oral arguments next week on the question of whether it should suspend implementation of the Senate district maps pending a possible vote next year on a Republican-led referendum to overturn them.

Republicans worry that the new maps could lead to Democrats capturing a two-thirds majority in the Senate -- an development that the new analysis says in fact is likely. But the authors assert that attainment of a Democratic two-thirds majority would in fact be more likely under the existing maps. They note that Republicans have "overperformed," as three of their current members either represent districts with Democratic voter-registration advantages or won very narrow victories (Tony Strickland).

"Had two of these three races turned out differently, the Democrats would already have a two-thirds majority," the analysis says. "The handwriting for Republicans has been on the wall for several years."

In terms of competitive districts, Ventura County will become one of the key political battlegrounds in the state over the next 10 years. The analysis concludes that two of three congressional seats that include portions of the county will be competitive, one of the two Senate seats, and one of the three Assembly seats.

It notes that the largest increases in competitive seats will be in the House of Representatives, where it concludes 12 of the 53 California districts will be competitive (meaning, by the authors' definition, that neither part ycould be expected to win in any given year by 10 percentage points or more). Because of the increased competitiveness, it notes that Democrats could gain about four seats next year -- but that those seats would be at risk in any year, such as 2010, in which Republicans perform well nationally.

"Given the strong uncompetitive nature of the 2001 congressional plan, it seems unlikely that it is possible to draw any plan that increases competition among congressional seats without also advantaging the Democrats," the analysis says.

"The new congressional plan is the most competitive of the three, so a good year for Democrats will probably allow them to pick up the seats they did not win before.
Yet because these gains come from competitive seats, they could easily be lost again in a countervailing partisan tide. Greater competition brings opportunity, but also risk."

With all the breathless attention the national news media has given Tuesday's Iowa caucus, it's easy to forget just what a small thing it actually is. It's even small in Iowa, where just 19 percent of the state's 645,000 registered Republicans participated in the the GOP caucuses.

With the closely divided vote, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was able to emerge as the winner with just 30,015 votes.

To put that in perspective, in the November 2010 election former special education teacher and school psychologist Wayne Edmunds of Camarillo was elected to the Oxnard Union High School District governing board with 34,351 votes.

Every four years one wonders whether the national media will wake up and realize that the Iowa caucus is much more show than substance and stop assigning to it inordinate importance. And every four years, they just can't stop themselves.