Over the last two days, two out-of-town experts -- the Rothenberg Political Report out of Washington and AroundtheCapitol.com out of Sacramento -- both reclassified the 26th Congressional District from "toss-up" to "leans Republican," based on the primary election results.
Both used the argument that Democrat Julia Brownley would need to capture "almost all" of the votes received by independent Linda Parks to close the gap with Republican Tony Strickland. How quickly these out-of-towners seem to have forgotten the dynamic that made this race interesting in the first place, which is the fact that there were four Democrats on the ballot. Jess Herrera, David Cruz Thayne and Albert Goldberg combined to get about 9,500 votes. If all their voters were to stay in the Democratic column in November, and Parks' voters were to split 50-50 between Brownley and Strickland, the gap would be fairly narrow.
And even that analysis seems kind of silly, frankly. Given the pathetic turnout on Tuesday, it's likely that there will be about 200,000 ADDITIONAL voters in November. How those voters break will be what determines this race. My view is that this race is just getting started, and it still looks like a toss-up to me.