If you are not redirected automatically, follow at http://95percent.blogs.vcstar.com/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie

Share: Share on Facebook submit to reddit StumbleUpon Toolbar

A memo from the Democratic polling firm Tuchin Research, released to me this week by the campaign of 26th Congressional District Democratic candidate Julia Brownley, confirms what most knowledgeable observers have said about the Ventura County District since it was created last summer: It's a toss-up district with a very slight Democratic tilt.

The live telephone poll of 400 likely November voters, conducted July 15-19, shows Brownley leading 48 percent to 44 percent over Republican Tony Strickland. It's an encouraging number for Brownley, but hardly one to make Strickland start to panic. The lead is within the poll's margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.

The mix of respondents was 41 percent Democrats, 37 percent Republicans and 22 percent independents. That's almost exactly the actual registration spread between Democrats and Republicans; on Election Day, the spread typically narrows because GOP voters tend to turn out better than Democrats.

The poll illustrates why the district has been seen as a battleground from the outset. The presidential vote is 50 percent for Barack Obama, 45 percent for Mitt Romney, and asked a generic question about whether they would vote for a Democrat or Republican for Congress, respondents split 46 percent to 42 percent for a Democrat.

In their memo, pollsters Ben Tulchin and Ben Krompak, say the results confirm "the Democratic-leaning nature of the district" and assert that Brownley is "as well positioned as any congressional Democratic candidate in the country to capture a seat currently held by a Republican." (Rep. Elton Gallegly, R-Simi Valley, now represents most of the area inside the new district.)

Tulchin told me yesterday the poll reveals a sharp "partisan polarization" of district voters, suggesting that the outcome will likely be determined by the 19 percent of district voters who are independents. He said the poll showed Brownley with a slight lead among independents.

Strickland campaign strategist Joe Justin, noting that the poll followed a campaign season in which Brownley and her supporters campaigned aggressively, said the results were surprising only in that they did not show the Democrat to be in a stronger position. "She and her Super PAC supporters mailed over 36 attack pieces against Linda Parks, and spent hundreds of thousands on cable. I'm surprised she's this weak," Justin wrote in an email answering my request for a response.

No TrackBacks

TrackBack URL: http://blogs.venturacountystar.com/cgi-bin/mt/mt-tb.cgi/44174

59 Comments

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
Snapback Caps Wholesale http://snapbackcap.oddities.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
ray ban sale http://replicaraybans.rsvpsarasota.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
ray ban outlet http://replicarbglasses.ebikerent.eu/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
cheapoakleysunglasses.visualjes.us http://cheapoakleysunglasses.visualjes.us/

Retailers hoped to do better than that on their websites and often offered bigger price cuts on Cyber Monday, a term coined by the National Retail Federation five years ago when employees noticed an uptick in Web sales, likely from consumers who were shopping from their offices after the holiday. Each year since, more retailers have been adding special one day promotions, and more shoppers have been visiting store sites. peak of 3.3 million, says Web monitoring firm Akamai. With all those visits came some problems: HP's and Dell's websites had intermittent issues that placed them last in performance rankings this year by Gomez, a Web performance management firm. "But I don't think retailers want to see Cyber Monday lose its specialness."

aS'\n\nmais il tellement beau mm faux lol'

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
FAKE oakley sunglasses http://fakeoakleys.uniquehoodia.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
Fake Oakley Sunlgasses http://fakeoakleyglass.voci.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
cheap oakleys http://cheapoakleys.softxpert.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
cheap oakleys http://cheapoakleys.montcom-ny.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
oakley sunglasseas wholesale http://cheapoakleys.displayproducts.us/

termolionline.it

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
New Era Hats For Sale http://cheaphats.entzminger.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
cheaphats.entzminger.us http://cheaphats.entzminger.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
Wholesale hats http://www.pamdrivers.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
cheap oakleys http://cheapoakleys.localuncle.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
fake oakleys http://cheapoakleyglass.alsazon.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
www.peakent.us http://www.peakent.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
Sac Longchamp http://www.jewellinks.fr/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
ray ban sunglasses outlet http://fakeraybansunglasses.centrales.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
cheapoakleys.soixantedeux.us http://cheapoakleys.soixantedeux.us/

This site offers nice quality YouTube videos; I always get the dance contest show movies from this web page.

No problem, and further more if you want update alerts from this site then you have to subscribe for it, it will be a suitable for you Jackson. Have a decent day!

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
fake oakleys http://replicaokglasses.kfci.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
oakley Sunglasses wholesale http://cheapoakleys.softxpert.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
Fake ray bans http://rayban.premierpuppies.co.uk/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
cheap ray bans http://cheapraybans.fhcommunication.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
fake oakley sunglasses http://www.mwgrips.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
cheap oakleys best deal http://www.peakent.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
sac Vanessa http://sacvanessabruno.fxbrokers.eu/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
New era hats http://snapbackcaps.nitejars.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
Cheap New Era Hats http://snapbackcap.oddities.us/

Poll in 26th CD: Brownley up 4 -- essentially a tie - 95 percent accurate
cheap ray bans http://replicaraybans.rsvpsarasota.us/

O'Hare noise complaints hit new monthly high

That's all well and good but I want to be able to see the devices on one subnet when I open the 'Network' window in Windows Vista on devices in the other subnet. I want to see 'PCNAME' show up in the Network window of 'LAPTOP'. All of this is a precursor to my original goal to connect my XBOX 360 through an ethernet cable to Router B (wish I'd just stumped up the cash for the XBOX 360 Wireless Adapater now, although if I can get this working I'll have 802.11N speeds around the house for streaming HDTV).

We have also doggedly pursued talent internally and externally and both corporately and in the divisions, putting some incredibly talented people in critical areas. And later, I will discuss what we have accomplished in that area. There's no question that what I called about six months ago the tale of two cities remains the headline even today. We like what we see in the Direct Brands portfolio with a very strong performance at Juicy. We see solid profitability and successful store openings at Lucky; although for the first time in a very long time we are seeing soft comps there.

For more Juicy Couture designer jacket looks, visit Juicy Couture online or your local upscale department store. I enjoy researching cooking/food websites and writing book reviews.Juicy Couture

A word of caution, though: If you-have diabetes or Any Other That requirement can cause has loss of sensation in your feet, keep your shoes on. Feedback from the feet is vital in barefoot and minimalist training. Your body depends on this feedback to know how to adjust the movement're Engaging in or if you need to stop it time immediately. Numb feet cannot Provide feedback and this can be Severely damaged.

He was born in Springfield, Massachusetts, where his grandparents lived on Mulberry Street hence the title of his first book. He studied at Dartmouth College (in the US) and Oxford University (in the UK). In 1948 he and his first wife Helen bought an old observation tower in La Jolla, California, where he would shut himself away in a studio for at least eight hours a day, sometimes literally wearing a thinking cap.

Es wurde beobachtet, dass diese Marken sahen auch einen Anstieg in der Zahl der Instagram Anh盲nger von 28 Prozent auf 44 Prozent im Jahr 2013 von Marken mit mehr als 10.000 Fans. (ANI)

Les soldes 脿 Londres Les dates : A Londres les soldes d茅marrent traditionnellement le lendemain de No毛l, le 26 d茅cembre 2013 pour le "Boxing Day". Il n'y a pas de date officielle de fin, elles sont fix茅es par les magasins eux m锚mes :

But don let it end there. Mix that up with a lined parka, which she notes are "very big this year," and guys have got a great casual look.

"Bienvenue sur le site le plus merveilleux Columbo dans tout le monde entier!

vision for Clinique Happy, including the name, packaging andBetween 1999 and 2001, Mr. Nevins served as Executive Vice

WONDERFUL Post.thanks for share..extra wait .. ?

Lumber arrive 茅galement dans ce domaine, et au cours de la semaine, il y avait beaucoup d'activit茅.

gamedesire.com

Youre so cool! I dont suppose Ive read anything like this before. So nice to search out somebody with some original thoughts on this subject. realy thank you for beginning this up. this web site is something that is wanted on the internet, somebody with a bit originality. useful job for bringing one thing new to the internet!

I抎 need to verify with you here. Which is not something I normally do! I get pleasure from reading a put up that can make individuals think. Additionally, thanks for allowing me to comment!

Can I just say what a aid to find someone who really knows what theyre talking about on the internet. You positively know how one can deliver a difficulty to mild and make it important. More people must learn this and perceive this side of the story. I cant consider youre not more popular since you definitely have the gift.

The following time I learn a blog, I hope that it doesnt disappoint me as much as this one. I imply, I do know it was my option to read, however I truly thought youd have one thing interesting to say. All I hear is a bunch of whining about something that you may repair when you werent too busy looking for attention.

This web internet site is actually a walk-through for all the info you wanted about this and didn't know who to ask. Glimpse here, and you'll surely discover it.
wholesale jordans http://jordansoutletjei.jigsy.com/entries/general/jordan-ptp-er-black-metallic-silver-dark-shadow-

Oh my goodness! an astounding article dude. Thank you Then again I am experiencing concern with ur rss . Do not know why Unable to subscribe to it. Is there any person obtaining identical rss dilemma? Everyone who knows kindly respond. Thnkx
shoes jordans http://jordanscoo.do.pe/2013/11/23/what-is-new-in-mens-air-jordan-11/

This web internet site is actually a walk-through for all of the information you wanted about this and didn't know who to ask. Glimpse here, and you'll undoubtedly discover it.
jordans outlet http://www.freewebsite-service.com/jordanscheaprt/Blog.php?id=191644&snavn=Affordable+Jordans+she+possibly+received+a+bonus

You will find definitely numerous details like that to take into consideration. That's an awesome point to bring up. I present the thoughts above as general inspiration but clearly you will discover questions like the one you bring up exactly where by far the most essential thing will be working in honest good faith. I don?t know if perfect practices have emerged about points like that, but I'm certain that your job is clearly identified as a fair game. Both boys and girls really feel the impact of just a moment's pleasure, for the rest of their lives.
air jordans http://jordansfyek.do.pe/2013/11/30/air-jordan-boots-and-shoes-frequent-the-background/

Leave a comment

95 percent accurate
Over the last 25 presidential elections, Ventura County voters have backed the winner 24 times, or over 95 percent of the time. It is one of only a handful of counties in the nation that has been such a predictable bellwether.
about Timm Herdt
Timm Herdt
The Ventura County Star's Sacramento Bureau Chief Timm Herdt on state issues and politics from Sacramento to Ventura County. He can be contacted at therdt@vcstar.com
Links
  • air jordans: You will find definitely numerous details like that to take read more
  • jordans outlet: This web internet site is actually a walk-through for all read more
  • shoes jordans: Oh my goodness! an astounding article dude. Thank you Then read more
  • wholesale jordans: This web internet site is actually a walk-through for all read more
  • karen millen sale: p1080 read more
  • ray ban outlet: The following time I learn a blog, I hope that read more
  • coach outlet store online: Can I just say what a aid to find someone read more
  • ray ban frames: I抎 need to verify with you here. Which is not read more
  • louis vuitton louis vuitton handbags: Youre so cool! I dont suppose Ive read anything like read more
  • celine tran: gamedesire.com read more