Get ready for a crazy weekend of GOTV...
CALLING IT JUST A 'TILT': The Rothenberg Report, which analyzes congressional districts across the country, today moved the Central Coast's 24th Congressional District from "leans Democrat" to "toss-up/tilt Democrat."
Here's the Rothenberg analysis:
"Republican polls have had this as a dead heat between Rep. Lois Capps (D) and former Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado (R) for some time, but we've remained skeptical. Still, this is a market, unlike Sacramento, where the GOP and their allies can still buy time, and they have been outspending Capps by more than two to one in the last couple of weeks. Capps remains a slight favorite, and Maldonado still carries high negatives, but this may be Republicans' best opportunity to knock off a Democratic incumbent in the Golden State."
As for Ventura County's 26th Congressional District race between Democrat Julia Brownley and Republican Tony Strickland, it remains one of just 18 across the country that Rothenberg classifies as a "pure toss-up."
OLD-FASHIONED POLITICKING: Democrats will stage a couple of old-fashioned political rallies in Ventura County this weekend to stir up some election eve excitement. The first will be at Oxnard's Plaza Park at 9 Saturday morning, and the second at Downtown Ventura's Plaza Park at 3:30 Sunday afternoon.
Originally, Democrats were hoping that Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis would attend, but she was forced to cancel her scheduled trip to the West Coast on Friday.
90,200 VOTES IN THE BANK: Political Data Inc. reports that 90,200 vote-by-mail ballots in Ventura County had been returned as of this morning, or 43 percent of the vote-by-mail ballots issued. Since almost half, 49 percent to be precise, of county voters are mail voters, that means the turnout rate in Ventura County is already at 21.5 percent.
POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS: Cal State Channel Islands political science professor Scott Frisch, noted for his scholarly work on all things congressional, will provide a post-election analysis of election results on Wednesday at the Democratic Club of the Conejo Valley's 6:30 meeting at the Newbury Park Library, 2331 Borchard Road.
COULD BE A BLOWOUT: A couple months ago, Republicans in Sacramento were making noise about the possibility that the 19th Senate District could be a competitive race. But funding for GOP candidate Mike Stoker has not materialized, and a big voter-registration push in Santa Barbara County has widened the voter-registration gap in that district to 12 points.
It's beginning to appear that contest could be a fairly easy win for Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson.