The Census Bureau, using data from its most recent American Community Survey, on Thursday released its first demographic portraits of the new congressional districts created by the states in late 2011 and early 2012.

The data help explain why Democrat Julia Brownley prevailed over Republican Tony Strickland last fall in Ventura County's 26th Congressional District -- and how, unless Republicans improve their standing among Latinos, women and young voters, the district could favor Democrats for the rest of the decade.

For starters, it puts the Latino share of the district population at 43 percent. It also shows that women outnumber men by about 6,000.

More striking -- and perhaps, to Republicans, ominous -- is the age breakdown of district residents. It shows that about half of district residents are under 35 and that there are large numbers of young people just reaching, or approaching, voting age -- 52,949 are between ages 15 and 19, and 51,149 age between ages 10 and 14. Given that a majority of Ventura County children are Latino, that suggests the electorate will become increasingly Latino as the decade progresses.

The number of residents between 10 and 20 is greater than the number of senior citizens in the district. There are 89,254 who are 65 and older -- an age cohort that is predominantly made up of non-Hispanic whites.

Since Republicans in Sacramento often accuse Democratic elected officials of being too beholden to labor, Democrats sometimes shy in their public pronouncements from being too lavish in their praise of unions.

But in today's State of the State address, Gov. Jerry Brown wasted almost no time in singling out organized labor for its considerable role in the passage of Proposition 30 in November.

"I salute the unions -- the members and their leaders," he said. "You showed what ordinary people can do when they are united and organized."

After the speech had ended, I sought out California Labor Federation Executive Secretary-Treasurer Art Pulaski to ask what he thought of that public shoutout.

Pulaski said he was pleased and that he had not been advised in advance that it was coming. He also said Brown was wise to single out union members, who mobilized in large numbers to back labor's overwhelmingly successful "Yes on 30, No on 32" campaign.

"It was nice in particular that he recognized the members," Pulaski told me. "It was the workers who got things done."

Looking forward, Pulaski said he was encouraged by Brown's commitment to invest not only in education, but also in two major infrastructure projects that, if built, will create thousands of jobs for unionized construction workers.

"We have to invest in the future -- invest in the future for jobs," he said.

Why was the 112th Congress the least productive in history? What is the reason for the dysfunction?

Cal State Channel Islands political science professors Scott Frisch and Sean Kelly took a plausible stab at the answer in an op-ed published last week in the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call. They blame it on the Republican leadership's decision to eliminate earmarks. Without earmarks, they argue, Speaker John Boehner and his leadership team were left without an important tool to bargain with individual members to secure their votes on important measures.

Frisch and Kelley are the authors of the 2010 book, "Cheese Factories on the Moon: Why Earmarks are Good for American Democracy."

In their op-ed, Frisch and Kelley note: "Earmarks can be used to incrementally
entice members to support the leadership on politically risky votes. Voting in favor of the fiscal cliff deal might have been the 'right thing to do,' but for
many Republicans an 'aye' vote promised nothing but grief at home and nothing positive in return. It is no wonder Boehner was forced to pass the bill with Democratic votes.

"The simple fact of the matter is this: The easiest vote to cast in Congress is 'no.' If members of Congress can vote 'no' repeatedly and without consequence, it is no surprise that Congress fails to act on many important issues."

At both the national and state levels, there have been developments this week that suggest progressive political groups, bouyed by their success in the November elections, will seek to build on the grassroots connections they developed.

First, of course, came the news that the President Obama's campaign team will transfer its high-powered netroots infrastructure to a new group to be called "Organizing for Action" that will be headed by 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina. The idea will be to try to mobilize the president's legion of small donors and massive email and social media contacts to create a political force to lobby Congress for support of the president's agenda.

In a similar vein, the network of community-based groups in California by the name of California Calls announced this week it intends to build on its successful efforts to target new and occasional voters.

In a press release, the coalition of 31 community-based groups including the Ventura-based CAUSE on the Central Coast, announced that its analysis of voter turnout shows that 80 percent of the voters they targeted cast ballots in November -- a turnout rate 9 points higher than the statewide turnout.

"The expanding electorate - growing numbers of young voters, people of color, and low-income voters - was critical to Proposition 30's passage," said Anthony Thigpenn, the group's chairman. "We have consistently engaged these voters for the past three years. These results are not accidental."

The alliance says that of the voters it contacted and identified as Proposition 30 supporters, 433,000 turned out on Election Day, making up 6.18 percent of the statewide vote.

"We're proving that local organizing is turning the demographic shift into a political shift," said Marcos Vargas, executive director of CAUSE. "The electorate is changing and is beginning to more closely reflect the diversity of our nation."

It's way too early to start writing about the 2014 campaigns, but with the reported statement by former Republican Sen. Tony Strickland that he's "seriously considering" taking on Rep. Julia Brownley in a rematch of the 2012 campaign, a few preliminary observations seem in order.

1. 2014 will be tougher for a Democrat. That's been well known ever since the 26th District, with its ever-so-slight Democratic advantage, was drawn. Brownley beat Strickland by 6 percentage points in an election in which voter turnout was above 77 percent and in a district in which Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by 10 percentage points. In 2014, turnout will be much lower and there will be no presidential race driving Democrats to vote. On the other hand, the demographic shift that benefited Brownley will contunue for two more years and incrementally work to her benefit. In addition, as an incumbent, she will be much better known from the outset than she was last year. But overall, she will be facing a less friendly environment.

2. Is Strickland the strongest Republican? The GOP establishment backed Strickland quickly and enthusiastically as soon as he entered the race in January 2012. Some may now be wondering whether another Republican might stand a better chance. The biggest reason for that questioning is Strickland's performance in Thousand Oaks, the Republican core of the district. Strickland carried the city by only 8 percentage points, despite the fact that Republicans hold a 10 percentage-point advantage in voter registration there. In comparison, GOP state Senate candidate Todd Zink carried the city by 10 percentage points in another highly competitive, expensive campaign. That has to lead some in the GOP to wonder whether there's something about Strickland that makes him relatively unpopular in Thousand Oaks, and whether some other candidate might fare better there.

3. As the story about Strickland linked above reports, Assemblyman Jeff Gorell is insisting he has no interest in running against Brownley next year. Evidence of the sincerity of that assertion is that Gorell this week filed papers to open his "Gorell for Assembly 2014" committee. It makes sense, because Gorell still has one additional term under term limits, and then in 2016 the 27th Senate District will become open when Sen. Fran Pavley is termed out. That race would be a challenge for Gorell, but certainly potentially winnable. And the timing of its term would suit whatever ambitions for statewide office Gorell might harbor. Since elections in the 27th District coincide with presidential elections, Gorell could become a senator and be able to run for statewide office (say, attorney general) in 2018 without having to give up his seat.

4. The Latino factor. After their shellacking in California this year, state Republicans know that they must begin to do better among Latino voters if the party is to have any future at all in this state. Former Sen. Jim Brulte, likely to become chairman of the state GOP in March, is particularly attuned to that imperative. And that's why Simi Valley City Councilman Glen Becerra could become a consideration. Becerra considered for a time becoming a candidate in 2012. He is president of the Southern California Association of Government's Regional Council this year, a position that has allowed him to build his profile throughout Southern California. And Becerra is also a Latino. Given that Brownley won 67 percent of the vote in the heavily Latino city of Oxnard last fall (providing her with her entire margin of victory districtwide), some GOP kingmakers may think it would make sense to have a Latino Republican take a shot at the district. That is slightly complicated by the fact that Becerra doesn't live in the district and neither is most of his Simi Valley political base in the district. But the Constitution doesn't require that representatives live in their district, and Becerra has been around long enough to have established deep connections throughout Ventura County.

Democrats in California have been largely in a state of euphoria over the November election results, but this weekend activists will have to come down from that long enough to participate in another election -- the one in which 12 people (6 men, 6 women) from each Assembly district will be elected to serve two-year terms as delegates to the state Democratic Party.

Here is when and where the elections will take place in the three Assembly districts that include portions of Ventura County:

37th District (Ventura, Santa Paula, Ojai, Fillmore): 10 a.m. Saturday, East Side Library, 1102 E. Montecito St., Santa Barbara.

38th District (Simi Valley): 1 p.m. Sunday, Granada Pavilion, 11128 Balboa Blvd., Granada Hills.

44th District (Thousand Oaks, Moorpark, Camarillo, Oxnard): 2 p.m. Sunday, Conejo Valley Unitarian Universalist Fellowship hall, 3327 Old Conejo Road, Thousand Oaks.

There is no shortage of candidates in any of the districts -- 17 in the 37th District, 20 in the 38th District, 22 in the 44th District. The names of all the candidates, along with a brief statement from each, can be found here.

All registered Democrats residing in each district who were eligible to vote in the November election (that is, those who were registered by Oct. 22, 2012) are eligible to vote.

During the years she served in the Assembly, it was no secret in the Capitol that Hannah-Beth Jackson and then-Senate leader John Burton, now chairman of the California Democratic Party, were not exactly cozy. In fact, many observers believe that Burton intentionally put together a Senate redistricting plan in 2001 that left Jackson without a realistic chance to move up to the Senate.

The effectiveness of that plan was validated in 2008 when Democrat Jackson ran and narrowly lost in the Republican-friendly district that Burton blessed for Santa Barbara and most of Ventura County in 2001.

But now a decade has passed, Jackson's Santa Barbara home is in a new, Democrat-friendly district, and she was elected to the Senate last fall.

So there was some unstated tension on Wednesday when Burton stood along the wall to observe the Rules Committee confirmation hearing on the appointment of his daughter, Kimiko Burton, to the State Personnel Board. Jackson is one of five members of the Senate Rules Committee.

Jackson had nothing but kind things to say about Kimiko Burton, and thanked her for having dropped by her office earlier for what Jackson said had been a very pleasant conversation. "It's obvious where you got your charm," Jackson said.

It was abundantly clear what Jackson was saying: that Kimiko's charm must have come from her mother's side.

The committee unanimously recommended that Kimiko Burton be confirmed.

The new Legislature, which met briefly in early December to swear-in members and elect officers, convenes in Sacramento today in earnest to kick off the 2013-2014 session. They have also been handed their committee assignments, with Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg making his announcements this morning, following Assembly Speaker John Perez' announcements late last week.

Ventura County legislators have been given a fairly heavy workload -- especially freshman Sen. Hannah-Beth Jackson of Santa Barbara, who was named to six committees, including the demanding Rules and Budget committees.

Following are the committee assignments for the members of Ventura County's legislative delegation:

Sen. Hannah-Beth Jackson, D-Santa Barbara: Budget and Fiscal Review; Budget Subcommittee No. 2 (Resources, Environmental Protection, Energy and Transportation); Education; Environmental Quality; Judiciary; Natural Resources and Water; Rules.

Sen. Fran Pavley, D-Agoura Hills: Energy, Utilities and Communication; Environmental Quality; Health; Natural Resources and Water (chairwoman); Transportation and Housing.

Assemblyman Jeff Gorell, R-Camarillo: Accountability and Administrative Review; Budget (vice chairman); Budget Subcommitee No. 6 (Budget Process, Oversight and Program Evaluation); Judiciary; Labor and Employment; Utilities and Commerce.

Assemblyman Scott Wilk, R-Santa Clarita: Arts, Entertainment, Sports and Internet Media; Business, Professions and Consumer Protection; Health; Higher Education; Rules (vice chairman).

Assemblyman Das Williams, D-Santa Barbara: Education, Higher Education (chairman); Natural Resources; Utilities and Commerce.

The lowlight of the 2012 election year in Ventura County was the insulting, ham-handed involvement of the national party congressional committees in the 26th Congressional District campaign. It was a bipartisan embarrassment -- from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Commitee's cheesy, cartoonish mail pieces attacking independent Linda Parks in the spring primary to the Republican National Congressional Committee's equally cheesy, equally cartoonish Internet ads attacking Democrat Julia Brownley in the fall general election campaign.

Privately, even some people associated with the campaigns of Brownley and Republican Tony Strickland complained that the cookie-cutter attacks coming from their supposed allies in Washington were doing them more harm than good.

It didn't take long for these hacks to start up again, gearing up for 2014.

Today, after John Boehner was narrowly re-elected Speaker of the House, the RNCC issued press releases in 26 House districts around the country held by freshman Democrats, including Brownley. These high-brow releases announced that these members were receiving from the RNCC "official lap dog kits" from "Nancy Pelosi's Obedience School." These members were among the 192 Democrats who, as is custom, cast their votes for speaker for the leader of their party's conference -- in their case, Pelosi.

Had any member of the House, Republican or Democrat, voted for the leader of the other party -- now, that would have been something to merit a press release.

INAUGURAL PARTY -- Ventura County Democrats will celebrate the inauguration of President Barack Obama on Monday, Jan. 21, with a buffet dinner and an evening of music and dancing at the French Bulldog Bistro in Camarillo.

Here are the details.

There are probably few people more relieved that Congress reached a deal on the tax component of the so-called fiscal cliff than newly elected Ventura County Congresswoman Julia Brownley, who can now enjoy being sworn in tomorrow and hosting a little party in her new office afterward without having to worry about having to vote on a monumental tax bill in her first day or two on the job.

Instead, she and the 80 other new members of Congress will get six weeks or so to get their feet on the ground before being asked to help tackle the remaining fiscal obstacles that include a spending-cut approach less draconian than sequestration, the raising of the debt ceiling and a new appropriations bill that will be needed to avert a partial government shutdown. All of that, by the way, will have to get done by late February or early March.

A recent analysis by the New York Times data geek extraordinaire Nate Silver suggests that, politically speaking, Brownley might be more motivated than most of her colleagues to participate in a compromise.

Using presidential election results over the last 20 years as a barometer, Silver shows the degree to which the House of Representatives has become more polarized -- and why, based solely on their personal political interests, members are far less motivated to compromise. He notes that the number of what he refers to as "landslide districts" (in which the districtwide vote for president diverged 20 percentage points or more from the national popular vote) has grown from 123 to 242 over the last two decades. At the same time, the number of "swing districts" (defined as a districtwide presidential vote that was within 5 percentage points of the national popular vote) has declined from 103 to 35.

By that definition, Brownley's 26th District does not qualify as a "swing district." President Obama's winning vote margin in Ventura County's 26th District was 10 percentage points, or 7 percentage points above his nationwide popular vote victory of 50.8 percent to 47.5 percent.

Using Silver's construct, the 26th is a "leans Democratic" district -- but there are precious few districts these days that qualify only as "leaning" toward one party or the other. He counts 24 such Democratic districts and 29 such Republican districts.

Based solely on personal political motivation, those 35 members from swing districts and 53 members from "leaning" districts should be the most amenable to participating in a bipartisan deal. Arguably, the rest have more political motivation to hold fast to the party line no matter what -- because they are more in danger of being challenged in a primary election than in the general election.

And one more thought on the fiscal-cliff tax bill that received final passage in the House on New Year's Day. It's poetically appropriate that perhaps the most immediately significant piece of that bill is one that has been reported on the least over the last few days. The piece that will have the biggest impact on most Americans is the elimation of a tax cut that hardly anyone talked about when it was enacted -- President Obama's payroll tax holiday that was part of the federal stimulus package. That increased the takehome pay of all Americans who make less than $110,100 by 2 percent for the last three years.

That tax cut was so little reported on and so infrequently discussed that pre-election polls showed that a plurality of voters mistakenly believed that taxes had gone up, rather than down, during the Obama administration.

It was an unsustainable tax cut, since it reduced the amount of money going into the Social Security Trust Fund. But its elimination means that most folks' takehome pay will drop 2 percent this year -- and since most American workers pay more in Social Security taxes than they do in income taxes, that will have a bigger effect on them than if income tax rates had been allowed to go up across the board instead of just for the wealthy.