As in 2012, District 26 (Julia Brownley) in the heart of Ventura County and District 24 (Lois Capps) that includes a coastal slice of the west county will likely be targeted because the voter registration breakdown in each district only narrowly favors Democrats.

The new target could be District 25 (Buck McKeon) that includes Simi Valley -- certainly if, as has been speculated, the Republican incumbent decides to retire, and perhaps even if he does not.

That district had been considered to be fairly safe Republican territory, but shifting demographics are making it less so. Republican John McCain carried the district by 9 percentage points in 2008, but Mitt Romney carried it by only 1.9 percentage points four years later. In addition, Democratic Assemblyman Steve Fox pulled off the biggest upset of the 2012 elections in California by narrowly prevailing in a district centered in the Antelope Valley -- which is one of the population centers in the 25th Congressional District.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is clearly taking note. This week it included McKeon among 10 GOP House members nationwide it targeted in Spanish-language radio ads, assailing them for voting in support of a House proposal that sought to overturn President Barack Obama's policy of deferring any potential deportation of people who had come to this country illegally as children and been raised here (the so-called "Dreamers").

"We think Buck has planted a flag and it's really far out there," said DCCC spokesman Matt Inzeo. "We're going to be reminding voters where he's at."

The ad begins with an announcer saying, "The Republican Party insists that they have changed, but once again, House Republicans like Buck McKeon have betrayed our community, rejecting President Obama's executive order that ended the deportation of DREAM Act-eligible young people. What's more, Congressman McKeon wants to restart the deportations of 800,000 young people who grew up in this country, worked hard, and are just looking for their chance to achieve the American Dream."

Inzeo notes that about a third of the population of the 25th District is Latino. Combining Latinos with African-Americans and Asians, the population of the district is almost exactly 50 percent minority.

The fact that the DCCC has now shown an interest in the race may influence the thinking of Simi Valley podiatrist Lee Rogers, the Democrat who challenged McKeon last year, losing by 9.6 percentage points. Rogers has told me that he's considering running again next year. No decision will likely be made until July 1, which would give him a full three months of fundraising before he had to disclose how much money he'd raised at the end of the third quarter.

The targeting of McKeon comes at a time when another political blogger -- this time, Scott Lay, author of "The Nooner" -- is predicting that McKeon will retire. Jon Fleischman, publisher of the conservative FlashReport, wrote this earlier this spring that McKeon would be stepping down.

Here's some of what Lay wrote in today's edition of "The Nooner":

"In talking to political insiders in both DC and Sacramento, the speculation is that Buck McKeon will be hanging it up after his eleventh term in Congress. Some believe he may step down before the end of the 113th Congress, triggering a special election that will ensure the district, which has been drifting closer to a political toss-up, stays Republican.

"This makes it much more likely that Tony Strickland runs for McKeon's CD25 than against Julia Brownley in CD26. But, Strickland won't have a free ride. Three names have been floated--former Assemblymember Cameron Smyth, Assemblymember Scott Wilk, and State Senator Steve Knight. Sources suggest that Knight is unlikely to run, and either Smyth or Wilk will run.".

In his district-by-district analysis of state political races, here's what Lay has to say about the 25th Congressional District at his AroundtheCapitol.com website:

"This district is also becoming more Democratic as the high desert communities in the east are built out. It is not unreasonable to see this as a competitive congressional seat in a presidential election, if not by 2016, then 2020."

Several Republicans in the Legislature voted in favor of a resolution, co-authored by one of their colleagues, calling on Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform that includes a meaningful pathway to citizenship for those who have been living here illegally for a number of years.

In addition, two significant bills concerning people living here illegally received a measure of bipartisan support in the Legislature last week. Two GOP Assembly members, including Jeff Gorell of Camarillo -- voted in favor of a bill to allow driver's licenses to be issued to individuals without Social Security numbers. And two Republican senators voted in support of a bill that would penalize employers who threaten to retaliate or in fact retaliate against a worker without documentation who complains about illegal workplace condition by reporting them to immigration authorities.

But these overtures will do no good if Congress fails to follow through and enact immigration reform that includes a meaningful pathway to citizenship. There have been renewed signs this week that Republicans in Congress may not be there yet.

The House yesterday, for instance, voted 224-201 in favor of an amendment designed to overturn President Barack Obama's defered action policy that suspends any potential deportation of the so-called "Dreamers" -- people who came to the United States as children and were raised here. The vote was mostly along party lines, but three California Republicans crossed party lines to oppose the measure. They were Reps. Jeff Denham, David Nunes and David Valadao. Notably sticking with the national GOP party line was Rep. Buck McKeon of Santa Clarita, whose district, which includes Simi Valley, is about half Latino.

Meanwhile, immigrant rights advocates have been sounding the alarm this week over reports that Texas Republican John Cornyn plans to introduce poison pill amendments to the bipartisan immigration package moving forward in the Senate. His proposal reportedly would add restrictions so onerous as to make a pathway to legal residency and citizenship nearly unattainable.

Expectations in the Latino community are high that comprehensive immigration will pass in Congress this year. If that doesn't happen, and GOP members are seen as those responsible, the backlash against the party by Latino voters could become even more severe.

Republicans in California who understand the life-or-death political significance of the issue must be looking toward Washington with a great deal of apprehension these days.

INTERESTING OMISSION -- The National Republican Congressional Committee this week publicly released polling results that it says show two GOP challengers with early leads in potential 2014 House matchups in California against freshman Democrats. It says former mayoral candidate Carl DeMaio is leading Scott Peters by 10 points in San Diego and Assemblyman Brian Nestande is leading Raul Ruiz by 3 points in Palm Springs.

While polls taken 17 months before an election mean absolutely nothing, except to entice contributors to give to a potentially winning campaig, there is an interesting omission here. The NRCC did not mention any polling in Ventura County's 26th District, which means one of two things. Either it didn't poll in the 26th, or it did but discovered results it does not wish to hype in a press release.

NORTH VS. SOUTH: As plans move forward on a Delta water plan that would include the construction of two large tunnels to more reliably divert water to the State Water Project, the historic geographic tensions between Northern and Southern California are beginning to build. Notably, among members of the state's congressional delegation.

This week, Ventura County Congresswoman Julia Brownley was among 13 members of Congress (all except for Sen. Dianne Feinstein from Southern California) to write Gov. Jerry Brown and U.S. Interior Secretary Sally Jewell to state their support for the Bay Delta Conservation Plan process. That process includes moving forward with the tunnels.

"California's economic and social future is directly tied to a safe supply of reliable, high-quality water, and we cannot go in with half measures when it comes to water reliability or environmental sustainability," they wrote.

Meanwhile, a number of Northern California representatives are on the warpath, trying to stop plans for the tunnels. Sacramento Democrat Doris Matsui didn't mince words when she testified before an April 30 legislative committee hearing on the issue.

Water contractors in Southern California and the Central Valley "hold all the cards" in the process, Matsui complained. "They will leave us high and dry." Among Matsui's other nuggets:

"We cannot take the problems of one part of the state and lay them at the feet of another."

"We will not be torn apart and placated with crumbs."

This could get ugly. The guiding principle of the Bay Delta plan is that it is committed to achieving the "co-equal goals" of improving the environment of the Delta and ensuring more reliable exports of water to the State Water Project. As California Resources Agency Secretary John Laird likes to say, every participant in the process seems to be passionately committed to at least one of the goals.

WILLIAMS IN HOT WATER WITH LULAC -- The Ventura County chapter of LULAC (League of United Latin American Citizens) is upset that local Assemblyman Das Williams pushed through the Assembly this week his bill (AB 955) that would allow community colleges to offer during their summer and winter intersessions class offerings for impacted courses at fees about four times the normal rate.

"The legislation imposes an extreme hardship on students who lack the financial resources to attend community college," said Maria Elena Cruz, chairwoman of the group's Education Committee, in a press release. "Proposing that the solution to the budget crisis facing our community colleges is to over-charge the very students who need them most and can least afford it is a regressive notion."

What most irks the LULAC members, however, is that they thought that Williams had committed to them that he would not move the bill until meeting with them at their upcoming, June 1 meeting. It's not clear how he could have met that promise, as the deadline for bills to pass out of their house of origin is next Friday, May 31.

Still, in the view of LULAC District Director Dave Rodriguez, "We were essentially hoodwinked and lied to."

I spoke to Rodriguez this morning as he was driving the a statewide LULAC conference, at which he said he expected a resolution opposing the bill would be passed.

Rodriguez said that because the bill has such "far-reaching impact," Williams should have met with affected community groups to discuss it beforehand "to try and quell the concerns of our members."

He asserts that Williams has promised to attend the June 1 meeting in Oxnard. A spokesman for Williams told me this afternoon, however, that the assemblyman is still discussing Rodriguez the question of whether Williams will attend.

THE GOVERNOR SPEAKS ON FRACKING -- For the first time since the issue has risen to prominence in California, Gov. Jerry Brown yesterday was asked at a news conference to discuss his view on fracking. His answer was revealing, because in a two-minute span he twice mentioned that the possibility of using fracking to tap California oil reserves previously thought to be unrecoverable "could be a fabulous economic opportunity."

He didn't directly respond when asked if he rejected the idea of a moratorium, but the context of his comments indicated he had no interest in that option. "I stand on intelligent analysis of the issues," he said. "This could be good, but there are issues and I want to take a look at them."

His administration's Division of Oil, Gas and Geothermal Resources has been circulating a "discussion draft" of possible regulations that would, for the first time, establish regulations specific to hydraulic fracturing, the practice of injecting under high pressure a mixture of water, sand and chemicals deep into the Earth to create fractures in subsurface rock in order to release embedded oil and natural gas reserves. The formal process of implementing regulations is expected to begin this summer. In addition, several bills have been proposed in the Legislature this year to impose statutory regulations.

Brown said he believes those processes can yield appropriate protections before fracking becomes commonplace in the state. "I don't think they're ready to go yet," he said of the oil industry's hopes to use fracking to tap into the Monterey Shale formation. "I think we have time to do it right."

That answer is consistent with comments earlier this year by the CEO of Occidental Petroleum (a company that has been aggressively leasing mineral rights in Ventura County), who told industry analysts that he didn't believe heightened oil and gas production in California would begin until 2014 or 2015.

Opposition to fracking has become a rallying point for environmentalists and liberals around the state. Earlier this week, California MoveOn.org, the liberal online political organizing group, reported that its efforts had resulted in 40,000 signatures on petitions to lawmakers demanding that fracking be banned. It said it would deliver those petitions to members of the Assembly the week of May 27.

Brown said fracking should not be looked upon as a political issue. "This is not about saying ideologically yea or nay," he said.

OOPS, WRONG ANECDOTE -- Critics of the state's public safety realignment program, which has shifted responsibility for incarcerating 25,000 low-level criminal offenders from state prisons to county jails, are fond of citing anecdotes that they say show that the shift has resulted in dangerous people being released from confinement earlier than they previously would have been.

Former Republican Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado, who is expected to announce any day now that he will be a candidate for governor next year, has launched an initiative drive aimed at abandoning realignment. At his news conference last week announcing that effort, he began by citing some anecdotes of his own. His first example was Anthony Jerome Roberts, whose oversized photograph was displayed on an easel standing beside him.

The photo was an attention-grabber, because it showed a very menacing-looking African-American man with a scraggly beard and what appeared to be drug-addled eyes. His image was very much reminiscent of that of Willie Horton, the furloughed Massachusetts murderer that the campaign of George Herbert Walker Bush famously used in the 1988 presidential race to scare white voters and paint former Massachuesetts Gov. Michael Dukakis as being soft on crime.

But it turned out Roberts' history of crime and punishment had absolutely nothing to do with realignment. He was last discharged from state prison in 2003 -- seven years before the realignment program was established. He may have been a menacing-looking fellow with a history of violent crime, but his only apparent role in the issue Maldonado was addressing was to help incite public fear.

After the error was reported in the Los Angeles Times, state Democratic Party Chairman John Burton fired off a letter to his Republican counterpart, Jim Brulte, asking the GOP chairman to condemn Maldonado for his "Willie Horton-style" attack.

"Maldonado's attack wasn't just cynical - it was wholly inaccurate," Burton wrote.

Republicans' political use of the issue, however, has apparently caught Brown's attention. In his revised budget proposal released yesterday, he proposes to allocate an additional $72 million to county probation departments for their supervision of realignment offenders. In addition,he proposes to allow counties to turn over to state prison some long-term offenders housed in their jails, provided they accept an equivalent number of shorter-term offenders in exchange.

A TEST OF A NEW COUNTY POLITICAL FORCE -- I wrote here in March about the potential significance of the new action fund controlled by CAUSE, the Ventura-based community organizing group that advocates for the issues of concern to low-income workers.

Now, the first test of this group's effectiveness is around the corner. The CAUSE Action Fund has issued its first candidate endorsement -- backing Mario Quintana for Oxnard City Council in the June 4 special election.

The potential effect of this endorsement is magnified by the fact that this will be a low-turnout special election. If CAUSE can effectively reach out to even a tiny fraction of the low-frequency voters it mobilized for the fall 2012 elections, their influence on the outcome would be huge.

USING RIDICULE -- Republican Assemblyman Scott Wilk of Santa Clarita, whose district includes Simi Valley, has found an outlet for some of the frustration that stems from being a member of a caucus that includes less than a third of the Assembly. Because Republicans are consistently outvoted, their one route to relevance is to ridicule the votes taken by Democrats, portraying various bills in the most ludricrous manner they can construct.

Wilk has launched what he promises will be a regular feature on his website -- "Say what?" -- in which, according to his newsletter, he will "expose the outrageous ideas that are approved in Sacramento."

Gorell had proposed a somewhat vague bill calling for a study involving the Public Utilities Commission and the state's electrical grid operator to look at issues involving the potential decommissioning of one or both of the beach power plants in Oxnard. (A full story on the issue will run later this week in The Star and VCStar.com.) Because of a change in state and federal law, plants such as those at Ormond and Mandalay beaches will either have to close or be redesigned by the end of 2020 so that they no longer use a process called once-through cooling.

The city of Oxnard, the California Coastal Conservancy and local environmental groups are all focused on getting at least one of those plants removed. The conservancy and the environmental groups believe things are on track to accomplish that, and were suspicious of Gorell's involvement.

Williams, who sits on the committee, voted against Gorell's bill, which was defeated. He told me last week that maybe there is something the Legislature could do, but that not enough work has been done in advance to put together a thoughtful idea that has broad backing in the community. During the committee hearing, he said it was not enough to simply issue "a press release."

There are policy issues involved, but political sensibilities as well. To some environmentalists, it seemed that Gorell was simply trying to latch onto an issue in an attempt to establish some credibility on environmental issues.

"Republicans are used to getting credit just if they have reasonable ideas on things," Williams told me. "I want to work together to accomplish something. I don't think it's right to try to claim credit ahead of it."

Interestingly, on the same day Williams told me that I got an email from the California Professsional Firefighters union telling me how Gorell had "walked the talk" and voted for a bill that would extend the statute of limitations for a deceased firefighter's family to make a claim that certain cancers and other diseases were job-related. Not only was Gorell among the about half of Assembly Republicans to vote for the bill, he also spoke on the floor in its favor. He noted that at that very moment his wife and children had been evacutated from their Camarillo home, and that he was trying to get a flight back as soon as he could. "These are our heroes," he said, "and we need to suppport them."

It might be noted that every Assembly Democrat supported the bill and that the only opposition in the 60-12 vote came from GOP members. From Williams' perspective, perhaps this was another instance of a Republican politician getting credit for being "reasonable"?

McKEON AND NORTHROP: If there was ever any question that the "military-industrial complex" that Dwight Eisenhower spoke of still exists, The Nation's blog answers it in a recent story about how companies are paying significant bonuses to employees who leave to go work for congressional committees.

Among the five examples cited is the case of former Northrop Gruman lobbyist Tom Maceinzie:

"In 2011, shortly after assuming the chairmanship of the House Armed Services Committee, Representative Buck McKeon (R-CA) hired Tom MacKenzie, a Northrop Grumman executive and former lobbyist for the company, to help oversee the committee. Financial disclosures show MacKenzie was paid a 'severance and bonus' of $498,334 from Northrop Grumman, just before he was hired to work in Congress."

JUMPING ON JULIA: The National Republican Congressional Committee is keeping Ventura County freshman Rep. Julia Brownley in its sights. It has been regularly sending out press releases such as the one that followed President Obama's news conference last week. Here's an exerpt:

"It took eight painful minutes for President Obama to defend his own healthcare law," said NRCC Communications Director Andrea Bozek. "How long would it take Julia Brownley to explain her support for higher premiums and reduced benefits to California families?"

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KEEP YOUR EYES ON DARAKA -- One of the biggest internal events at the weekend convention was the election of a new state party secretary, and Santa Barbara's Daraka Larimore-Hall came away with the big prize. He defeated an opponent who had several things going for her (such as being a "her"), She was endorsed by Attorney General Kamala Harris and was introduced to delegates before her speech on the convention floor by Christine Pelosi, daughter of House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi.

Assemblyman Das Williams, who supported Larimore-Hall's candidacy and is a longtime ally, said the victory was the result of a lot of legwork on the part of the young chairman of the Santa Barbara County Democratic Central Committee.

Larimore-Hall's enthusiasm was plainly on display during his speech to delegrates. Near the end of a very energetic speech, he talked of "kicking a--." The remark caused even state party Chairman John Burton, whose public use of salty language is legendary, to fidget nervously behind Larimore-Hall on the convention stage.

In any event, voters along the Central Coast should keep their eyes on Daraka. The election to a statewide party office makes him a potential contender for the Legislature once Williams is termed out in 2016.

PRESSURE ON FRACKING -- Sen. Fran Pavley acknowledges that she has been taking a little heat from some of the strong environmentalists who support her because her bill to regulate hydraulic fracturing does not call for a moratorium on the practice. But she told me she has no problem with the fact that delegates approved a Democratic Party resolution advocating such a moratorium.

Pavley is focused on getting a bill through the Legislatue that Gov. Jerry Brown will sign -- and Brown has publicly had mostly positive things to say about fracking and its potential to spur oil and economic development in the state. She knows that the more pressure that builds up around the state calling for drastic steps, the more likely it will be that Brown will be receptive a bill that establishes tough regulations but falls short of a moratorium.

DIVERSITY IN COUNTY DELEGATION -- Laura Espinosa of Santa Paula has been around Democratic Party politics for years, and she pulled me aside over the weekend to call my attention to something she believed was significant: the role of Latino delegates from Ventura County.

Joining her at the convention were Danny Carillo of Ventura and Jesse Luna of Santa Paula, both first-time delegates.

"The Latino demographic is growing in both parties," Espinosa told me. "It's important especially for the Democratic Party to step up and show that it recognizes how important the Latino vote is."

At a press briefing just now, however, Senate leader Darrell Steinberg was absolutely clear that no such legislation will get through the Senate this year.

"I don't think we should be dealing with those things in 2013," he said.

He noted that lawmakers have a number of big-ticket issues on their plate, citing implementation of the Affordable Care Act, education financing reform, water issues, a gun violence prevention package and CEQA reform.

"2013 will be focused on bread and butter and production," he said.

Earlier this year Steinberg had said he was cool to the idea of bringing up measures dealing with taxes so soon after passage of Proposition 30's tax increases last fall. But his pronouncement today was his strongest statement yet that none will advance until at least next year -- when, he allowed, that the issue of lowering voter thresholds ought to be on the legislative agenda..

The council includes retired military officers, business executives and elected officials from every area of the state in which there is a significant military presence -- except for the region around Naval Base Ventura County. San Diego is particularly well represented on the panel, which will be headed by former San Francisco Bay area Rep. Ellen Tauscher, who also served as Under Secretary of State.for arms control and international security affairs.

It also includes four legislators who have military connections -- notably including Sen. Steve Knight of Palmdale, whose political interest lies in protecting activities at Point Mugu's sometime inner-service rival, the naval air station at China Lake.

In a letter to Brown this week, Camarillo Assemblyman Jeff Gorell points out this omission and asks that it be corrected -- by adding him to the council.

"While you have appointed excellent representation for the San Diego and China Lake areas, there is no representation for the important bases located in Ventura County - the third region with a high concentration of Navy operations and personnel," Gorell writes.

He goes on to request that Brown select him as the council's 19th member.

Gorell makes an important and necessary point. The absence of anyone on the council who is familiar with and protective of the essential role of operations at Point Mugu and the Port Hueneme Seabee base could put the region at a disadvantage.

But offering up himself as the solution to this oversight could be seen in the governor's office as a self-interested move by Gorell. Surely there are distinguished retired military officers in Ventura County who could be added to the council to give it better balance. Retired Congressman Elton Gallegly could be another possibility, depending on what sort of relationship he and Tauscher developed during their many years together in the House of Representatives.

HEALTHY POLITICS: Freshman Assemblyman Scott Wilk of Santa Clarita has come up with a clever idea to combine constituent outreach with fitness.

On Saturday morning at 8:30 he will host his first "Walking with Wilk" event, inviting consituents to meet him at the Iron Horse Trailhead on Magic Mountain Parkway in Santa Clarita for a half-hour walk.

His office says that similar events will be held in Simi Valley and the San Fernando Valley -- the other two population centers in the 38th Assembly District -- in the weeks ahead. The press release notes that the walk will followed by "coffee and snacks."

If this idea is to work, those snacks better be yogurt and carrot sticks, not doughnuts and coffee cake.

GRANDMA JACKSON -- While some legislators have received some criticism in the press for their travels over the Legislature's spring break last week, it's doubtful anyone will hold it against Sen. Hannah-Beth Jackson for the trip she took to Washington, D.C.

She went there at her own expense to visit her newborn grand-daughter, born on St. Patrick's Day. She is Jackson's first grandchild.

Jackson tells me that, by chance, the trip did involve an opportunity to do a little elbow-rubbing with the Washington political elite. On her return flight to California, she found herself seated next to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

MAYBE A COINCIDENCE, BUT ... -- Several weeks back, the county chapter of the National Women's Political Caucus held an event designed to encourage women from Ventura County to seek out appointments to state offices. While it's doubtful it was the result of cause and effect, Brown last Friday appointed Camarillo Health Care District CEO Jane Rozanski of Camarillo to the California Commission on Aging.

Rozanski, 69, is registered to vote as having no party preference.

THE ONLINE FUNDRAISING CONTINUES -- One of the keys to Rep. Julia Brownley's political success last fall was her success in attracking hundreds of thousands of dollars in small political contributions from online donors. She's hoping to repeat that success in 2014.

Brownley sent out a number of email appeals in the weeks leading up to the March 31 deadline for first-quarter fundraising. The results of those efforts will be revealed on April 15, when the reports are filed with the Federal Elections Commission. But in a follow-up email on Monday, Brownley told supporters she was "very grateful" for their responses and indicated she is off to a good start for her re-election campaign.

"When John Boehner and Karl Rove look at our FEC report they will see that they cannot take this seat back without a serious fight," she wrote. "They may have the backing of billionaires and big corporations but we have you."

The fundraising reporting deadlines also explain why Republican Tony Strickland, Brownley's once and apparently future opponent, filed papers establishing his 2014 campaign committee on April 1. The timing means that Strickland can now begin fundraising, but will be able to wait the maximum amount of time (until July 15) to report his contributions. Presumably, that will allow him to time his official announcement for about then -- and he no doubt hopes he will be able to do so with a splash by reporting a big number in his campaign account.

The Berkeley study finds there was essentially no difference between the racial/ethnic makeup of those who registered online and that of the electorate at large. In addition, it finds that the online registration option seemed to be particularly well received by Latinas and Asian American women.

Perhaps the its most striking finding, however, comes from an analysis of online registrations in San Diego and Alameda counties that details the neighborhoods from which those registrations originated. What it found was that online registration was heavily used in lower-income neighborhoods.

"This strongly suggests that online registration is not simply being used by affluent, already likely voters, but rather that it was less affluent eligible voters who most took advantage of opportunity to register online," the report concludes.

As for the new report of registration, it suggests that, except for Orange County, most counties did not make significant efforts after the presidential election to clean up their voting rolls. Registration statewide dipped by just 190,000 between Oct. 22, 2012, and Feb. 10, 2103. An aggressive effort in Orange County to track down registered voters who no longer live at the addresses at which they are registered accounted for just about the entire statewide drop.

In a number of counties, including Ventura, the numbers actually show an uptick in registration since the presidential election. About 4,200 additional voters have been added to the county roll -- about 1,900 Democrats and about 1,900 "no party preference" voters. The other new voters were all affiliated with minor parties, as the Republican total dropped by 132.

For the first time, the percentage of no-party-preference voters in Ventura County topped 20 percent. In the partisan arena, Democrats now hold a 2.6 percentage-point advantage countwide, 38.6 percent to 36.0 percent..

That means CAUSE and its action fund can keep a firewall between themselves and that the action fund can endorse and support candidates for elective office. It's hardly an uncommon arrangement; think of Planned Parenthood and the Sierra Club as nonprofits that do the same.

Given CAUSE's success last fall in reaching out to infrequent, low-income voters and getting them to turn out in large numbers in support of Proposition 30 and in opposition to Proposition 32, it appears that CAUSE is a group that could deliver new voters in local candidate elections. Vargas and his team would be best advised to use their new capability judiciously, but under the right circumstances, they could become significant new players in area campaigns.

RESOLVED TO BE LIBERAL: The Ventura County Democratic Central Committee earlier this month passed some resolutions that will raise some eyebrows in conservative and moderate circles -- including what Chairman David Atkins calls the "first-in-the-nation" resolution that calls on public pension funds and public universities in the state to divest their holdings in fossil fuel companies.

RL Miller, author of the resolution, says she intends to offer the same proposal at the state party convention in April. In a press release, Miller said, "I drafted this to send a message to fossil fuel companies: we will not participate in our own destruction. The resolution is in line with the work of 350.org and the Fossil Free movement now at 250 colleges."

In addition, the committee approved resolutions calling for a statewide moratorium on hydraulic fracturing, the oil industry practice commonly known as "fracking," and in support of what it called "fair immigration reform" that includes a path to citizenship for undocumented residents living in the United States.

POTENTIAL CANDIDATE IN 44th AD -- After getting a tip from a source that former Democratic congressional candidate David Cruz Thayne of Westlake Village is already planning a campaign for Assembly in 2014, I e-mailed Thayne for a response. Here's what he wrote back earlier this week:

"I made clear when I ran for Congress that I was very interested in public service. I have made no decisions, but running for the Assembly certainly may be something I will take a look at down the road."

The Ventura County delegation did its share, led by Sen. Hannah-Beth Jackson with 24, and followed by Assemblyman Jeff Gorell with 21, Sen. Fran Pavley with 20, Assemblyman Das Williams with 18 and Assemblyman Scott Wilk with 16. For the specifics on the agendas of each, you can search by their last names here.

It appears that lawmakers either weren't paying attention or paid no heed to Gov. Jerry Brown's exhortation during his January State of the State address to try to restrain themselves in introducing bills this year.

Here's what he said: "Constantly expanding the coercive power of government by adding each year so many minute prescriptions to our already detailed and turgid legal system overshadows other aspects of public service."

What did he expect? They're lawmakers, and they feel compelled to make laws.

But, longtime Democratic strategist Bob Mulholland told me yesterday, perhaps it is the Democrats who should be most concerned. If Republicans are unable to field a credible candidate, he mused, voter turnout in the 2014 election without a contested top-of-the-ticket race would likely be abysmal. And that would severely damage the chances of Democrats running for Congress and the Legislature across the state.

It may seem counterintuitive, but the theory makes sense. If Republicans essentially concede the governorship, it very well could create the kind of turnout model that could swing back into their column many of the down-ticket offices they lost last year in an election with a strong, Democrat-friendly turnout.

Thus far, only Assemblyman Tim Donnelly, a Tea Party favorite and founder of the Minuteman movement, has publicly expressed an interest in the GOP nomination for governor. While some mainstream Republicans worry that such a candidate would be a disaster for the party in California and result in many voters casting a straight party-line ballot for Democrats, it is also true that such a candidate would likely be unable to raise anywhere near the amount of money necessary to wage a visible campaign. In such a scenario, occasional voters might not see any reason to vote, and many might not even become aware that there is an election. With Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein both in the middle of their six-year terms, there will be no U.S. Senate race in California next year.

It's likely that some Republicans have already figured this out. Former Sen. Jim Brulte, all but certain to be installed as state GOP chairman next month, has said that rebuilding the party will be a six-year effort. Perhaps that's just an expression of realistic expectations. But perhaps it's also an indication of a strategy that would involve using the 2014 election to try to start rebuilding from the bottom up, maneuvering to get into a position from which the GOP could make a credible run for the governor's office in 2018.

What could Democrats do to defend themselves against such a possibility? Turn to ballot propositions to drive voter turnout.

Efforts are already under way to qualify an initiative that would increase tobacco taxes and devote the revenue to higher education -- an effort that, if successful, would likely rally college students to turn out as they did last year in support of Proposition 30. Beyond that, Democrats in the Legislature could use their supermajority to place other measures on next year's ballot that might have strong appeal to other Democratic-leaning voter groups. Perhaps one seeking an increase in the minimum wage? Perhaps political reforms?

In this off year in California politics, there are some interesting strategic decisions to be made about 2014.

SMYTH FORMS COMMITTEE: Former GOP Assemblyman Cameron Smyth this week opened a Senate campaign committee for 2016, but that means less than it might suggest.

Smyth ruled out a run for Senate last year in which he could have challenged incumbent Democrat Fran Pavley, but he said at the time he wasn't foreclosing the possibility of running for elected office again at some future time. The 27th Senate District could be more appealing in 2016, because with Pavley termed out it will become an open seat.

Smyth told me this morning he formed the committee because still had money in his Assembly campaign account that needed to be parked somewhere, so he opened the new committee and transferred the balance into it. He said he has no intention at this point of using the committee for any active fund-raising.

He said his thinking remains the same as last year -- he's happy working in the private sector, enjoying coaching his kids' soccer team, but not ruling out a return to the political arena at some point. Maybe for Senate in 2016, and maybe not.

The data help explain why Democrat Julia Brownley prevailed over Republican Tony Strickland last fall in Ventura County's 26th Congressional District -- and how, unless Republicans improve their standing among Latinos, women and young voters, the district could favor Democrats for the rest of the decade.

For starters, it puts the Latino share of the district population at 43 percent. It also shows that women outnumber men by about 6,000.

More striking -- and perhaps, to Republicans, ominous -- is the age breakdown of district residents. It shows that about half of district residents are under 35 and that there are large numbers of young people just reaching, or approaching, voting age -- 52,949 are between ages 15 and 19, and 51,149 age between ages 10 and 14. Given that a majority of Ventura County children are Latino, that suggests the electorate will become increasingly Latino as the decade progresses.

The number of residents between 10 and 20 is greater than the number of senior citizens in the district. There are 89,254 who are 65 and older -- an age cohort that is predominantly made up of non-Hispanic whites.

But in today's State of the State address, Gov. Jerry Brown wasted almost no time in singling out organized labor for its considerable role in the passage of Proposition 30 in November.

"I salute the unions -- the members and their leaders," he said. "You showed what ordinary people can do when they are united and organized."

After the speech had ended, I sought out California Labor Federation Executive Secretary-Treasurer Art Pulaski to ask what he thought of that public shoutout.

Pulaski said he was pleased and that he had not been advised in advance that it was coming. He also said Brown was wise to single out union members, who mobilized in large numbers to back labor's overwhelmingly successful "Yes on 30, No on 32" campaign.

"It was nice in particular that he recognized the members," Pulaski told me. "It was the workers who got things done."

Looking forward, Pulaski said he was encouraged by Brown's commitment to invest not only in education, but also in two major infrastructure projects that, if built, will create thousands of jobs for unionized construction workers.

"We have to invest in the future -- invest in the future for jobs," he said.

Cal State Channel Islands political science professors Scott Frisch and Sean Kelly took a plausible stab at the answer in an op-ed published last week in the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call. They blame it on the Republican leadership's decision to eliminate earmarks. Without earmarks, they argue, Speaker John Boehner and his leadership team were left without an important tool to bargain with individual members to secure their votes on important measures.

Frisch and Kelley are the authors of the 2010 book, "Cheese Factories on the Moon: Why Earmarks are Good for American Democracy."

In their op-ed, Frisch and Kelley note: "Earmarks can be used to incrementally
entice members to support the leadership on politically risky votes. Voting in favor of the fiscal cliff deal might have been the 'right thing to do,' but for
many Republicans an 'aye' vote promised nothing but grief at home and nothing positive in return. It is no wonder Boehner was forced to pass the bill with Democratic votes.

"The simple fact of the matter is this: The easiest vote to cast in Congress is 'no.' If members of Congress can vote 'no' repeatedly and without consequence, it is no surprise that Congress fails to act on many important issues."