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August 13, 2007

Budget stand off

The California budget is way overdue. On one side Democrats, some Assembly Republicans, and Arnold have worked out disagreements. On the other side the Republican State Senate caucus is united ( except State Sen. Abel Maldonado) in their opposition to the governor's budget.

For the governor to prevail he must get one more state senator to come over to his side. Normally this is accomplished by a bit of pork or other incentives for a few of the hold outs. But this year the Republicans are staying together. I don't think Republicans like Tom McClintock will compromise. Needing one more vote to pass his budget where does Arnold go?

How do you think this will end? I envision another Republican getting pulled aside by the governor and offered the governor's support in a future campaign or something of that nature. I doubt even with deals being made the budget will pass 40-0. Many R's need a tax fighting reputation to campaign o in the future.

Will the Republicans stick together?

Who will win in the court of public opinion?


Comments

I'm pretty proud of the Republicans. Not for the fact that they are on the verge of shutting down California, but for the fact that they have held together and shown that even though they are not the majority in the state, they still can flex some muscle.

Isn't democracy great.

Posted by: Daniel Goldberg at August 13, 2007 10:17 AM

Senate republicans have already lost this. I think in 08 a prop will pass lowering to 50% to pass a budget and new taxes, at that point Sacramento republicans will have no power and they can then thank Tom McClintock and they will most likely regret having followed him over the cliff to obscurity.

Posted by: Machiavelli at August 13, 2007 10:52 AM

The average Californian is blissfully unaware of all the drama being played out in Sacramento. They are more concerned about more important things like Lindsay Lohan's latest DUI than any of this nonsense about the state budget. Besides, the stuff goes on every year so it shouldn't be surprising that the public is tuned out. Anyway, the budget will eventually be passed one way or the other.

Posted by: Bubba Kidd at August 13, 2007 11:04 AM

The California republicant party is millions in debt and they are having a hard time raising funds. They can't even balance their own budget! The state dem party has no debt and millions in the bank. The republican governor, republicans in the assembly and all democrats have passed the budget, only these 14 are holding it up because they don't like an environmental law signed by Ronald Reagan. Arnold said they keep changing what they want, when Ackerman was asked he said he did not know what he wanted. If you live in the District of anyone of these 14 vote them out or start a recall today!

Posted by: Bubbo Kid at August 13, 2007 11:13 AM

Bubba, I agree the budget will be passed. I thought that was obvious. I was more curious if you think the senate Republicans will be able to hold rank when Arnold comes lobbying them.

Posted by: Brian at August 13, 2007 11:55 AM

Hard to say. They seem pretty determined to hold rank this year. Then again, the democrats always seem to find a way to buy off enough votes the move the budget through. All it takes is one. Its kind of like that movie 300 where the Spartan soldiers can only survive if they fight as a cohesive unit, but one defection and the entire unit falls. It all comes down to whether republicans fear the reprisal from within their own party more than the carrot being dangled in front of them. I'm amazed they've lasted this long. But is sure is fun to watch.

Posted by: Bubba Kidd at August 13, 2007 01:36 PM

I love Don Perata's style. No nonsense, take no prisoners, holding the GOP accountable for their game playing. He's doing the right thing for the people of California.

It will be so nice to be rid of McClintock and have Dantona in the 19th SD seat. Better for the district, better for the State.

Posted by: Laura Winchester at August 13, 2007 02:05 PM

Dantona in the 19th SD seat? Fat chance. Hey, that was funny!

Posted by: Bubba Kidd at August 13, 2007 04:37 PM

Bubba aka Poor old Johnny One Note!

Posted by: Polly Baker at August 13, 2007 08:20 PM

Brian:
I imagine that McClintock and his followers consider Schwarznegger mostly a RINO.

I am wondering what Dennert bloggers think of the view that Republicans are simply trying to run out the clock on healthcare reform?

Are they beginning their 2008 FEAR campaign in also focusing on Brown's trying to put teeth in the global warming legislation? Will environmentalism become the wedge issue for the 2008 campaign?

What have the Republicans recommended to be cut in the budget. Have they outlined that in a counterproposal?

Could we debate the legitimacy and substance to their line in the sand?

In 2005, 14 California Legislators declined a 12% raise because of the budget deficit. McClintock and Strickland accepted that raise. They earn over $113,000/year plus allowances (in comparison to NY Leg who make less than $80,000).

In 2007, they would jeopardize those who are most vulnerable in our economy and in our communities.

Do they think charities can make up the difference? Private enterprise?

I'm interested to learn to what organizations they make charitable contributions or what private sector jobs they have held or worked with that might replace publicly funded jobs?


Posted by: ML Peterson at August 13, 2007 10:20 PM

Brian. Great story in the LA Times today. Arnold is now going to the Districts of the 14 budget blockers and blasting them. He also went to Santa Maria and praised Maldonado. The story pointed out that the state republican party is broke and that Arnold is much more popular than the 14 holdouts and that he could raise money to defeat them. I think it is likely that Arnold will become an independent and then work to get moderates, dem and rep, into the seats of these 14 districts. I could even see him helping get Dantona elected because he would see Tony the PUSSYcat Strickland as a McClintock clone.

Posted by: Bubbo Kid at August 14, 2007 08:51 AM

Governor Schwarzennegger also said yesterday that he may now support changing the California Constitution to have a simple majority pass the state budget (as most states do). If that happens republicans in Sacramento will have no power at all. McClintock and his ilk seem to be dragging the California GOP right into nothingness. What kind of strategy is that?!

Posted by: Machiavelli at August 14, 2007 09:41 AM

The question should be:

? Who will survive the court of pubic opinion ?

In my opinion, to become a politician, you become a crook. Hang 'em all!

Posted by: Clyde at August 14, 2007 03:11 PM

As they say (whoever 'they' are):

"Anarchy is better than no government at all."

Posted by: Clyde at August 14, 2007 03:21 PM

I like the suggestion that legislation be introduced that assemblypeople, state senators, and staffers don't get paid either when a budget is stalled.

I think in times like this, the idea of only needing 50% of the vote to pass a state budget is more and more attractive - which is not a good thing.

Posted by: Katie Teague at August 15, 2007 07:58 AM

Katie --
The US Constitution lays out a basic principle that I think should be followed:
It takes 2/3 to pass a Constitutional Amendment. In short, a 2/3 vote is used
when there is a significant change in a principle of how we define the rights of "We the People . . ."

Passing the budget affects the day-to-day workings of government. It's very important.
While it is the mechanism through which we implement our State Constitution, I don't think it rises to the level of passing Amendments to our Constitution (State and/or Federal).

Is it reasonable that a year-to-year administrative function should require a super-majority vote to pass? That it should have to rise to the same level as Constitutional Amendments?

As it stands now, 46 out of 136 (Assemby + Senate) can stall the budget.

While a simple majority may be too low of a threshold, is there a percentage that could be more reasonable than 67%? Perhaps 58%? A tough but not an unreasonable margin?

Or are Californians going to have to vote in a super-super majority to get timely budgets passed, leading to a super minority Republican party?

Posted by: ML Peterson at August 15, 2007 12:06 PM

I agree that it is a slipperly slope but the partisan voting has to stop.

By the way, has Tom McClintock voted for any budget or has he always been a holdout?

Posted by: Katie Teague at August 15, 2007 12:17 PM

Good question re: McClintock.

Brian -
Have bloggers on this site ever been directed to "Next Ten"?
If so, it might be interesting for bloggers to compare their own "budget" with the
current issues in play that is stalling the budget.

If not, it's an "independent, nonpartisan organization that educates, engages and empowers Californians so that, together, we can improve our future economy and quality of life." It offers online educational tools and information that helps us understand how the state's budget decisions "shape our lives over the next ten years."

Attached is the site for California's Budget Challenge: It lets users build their own state budget.

Posted by: ML Peterson at August 15, 2007 04:41 PM

From the Rough and Tumble website - Impasse hurts legislators; little damage to governor.


Field Poll: Impasse hurts legislators; little damage to governor -- Despite a near-record budget impasse, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger gets high marks from voters in a Field Poll to be released today. Meanwhile, the Legislature's approval rating among California voters has tumbled since March, although a majority of voters said they support a ballot measure that would give lawmakers longer terms in office. Matthew Yi, Tom Chorneau in the San Francisco Chronicle Edwin Garcia in the San Jose Mercury John Marelius in the San Diego Union-Trib JIM MILLER in the Riverside Press -- 8/18/07

Posted by: Rough and Tumble at August 19, 2007 08:09 AM

George Skelton of the LA Times had an interesting op-ed piece. I had not idea that only three states had a supermajority requirement for passing a budget.


LA Times (excerpt)

A simple-majority vote would end the madness on passing state budget
August 20, 2007


SACRAMENTO — Sacramento

Frustrated by his fellow Republicans in the state Senate, Gov.
Arnold Schwarzenegger finally is starting to come around -- coming around to the recognition that California's daunting budget hurdle is destructive and dopey.

California is one of only three states -- the others being Arkansas and Rhode Island -- that require a supermajority legislative vote for passage of a budget. California mandates a two-thirds majority, an inanity given that a 60% vote in elections is considered a landslide.

Posted by: Katie Teague at August 20, 2007 08:02 AM

McClintock has voted only five times for state budget since he has been in the legislature, all during the 1980s.

Posted by: www.senate.ca.gov/mcclintock at August 20, 2007 04:13 PM

I guess he didn't like Pete Wilson's budget but George Deukmejian was OK?

Posted by: Katie Teague at August 20, 2007 07:17 PM

Wilson was more liberal than Deukmajian. That's probably why he liked Deuk's budgets better.

Posted by: www.senate.ca.gov/mcclintock at August 20, 2007 08:54 PM
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