( Why aren't there more local youtube uploads? Thanks to the few that do!)
From state assembly to the propositions and everything in between, what are your predictions?
This is an open thread about Tuesday. If you see a late mailer or last minute campaigning discuss it here.
Even though they are not running against each other technically, who will get more votes? Hannah Beth Jackson or Tony Strickland?
What about CA 24? Will Tenenbaum increase his performance from last time? Which Democrat has done the most in the last few weeks of the campaign?
Feel free to discuss presidential primaries or the Democratic Party meeting on what to do about Michigan and Florida.
If your predictions in the congressional / assembly / state senate campaigns are the closest you will choose the pictures I use on an entry. Go to work!
This is an open thread!
Elton Gallegly will be renominated with around 80 percent of the vote. Tony and Audra will be the Republican nominees for Senate and Assembly (obviously, since they are unopposed), and Jeff Bennett will be the next superior court judge for office number 5.
All incumbent county supervisors will be re-elected, but don't be suprised if John Flynn is forced into a NOVEMBER RUN-OFF as he could very well get less than 50 percent of the vote on Tuesday.
The county central committees will not change that much. There will be some new people elected but overall the directions they are going will not change.
Mary Pallant will be the Democratic nominee for Congress and Ferial Masry will be the Democratic nominee for Assembly. Obviously, Hannah Beth-Jackson will will the nominee for Senate.
Measure B will fail although it might be close. Prop 98 goes down, and Prop 99 passes.
I have no idea what will happen with the other local ballot measures.
Gallegly beats Tenenbaum. (24CD Rep)
Pallant beats Martinez. (24CD-Dem)
Pavley beats Levine. (23SD-Dem)
Hare beats Masry. (37AD-Dem)
Orellana beats Mighty Whitey Bennett. (Judge)
Steve Bennett beats the write in.(Sup 1)
Long beats Hanson. (Sup 3)
Run off between Zaragoza and Flynn. (Sup 5)
Measure A passes
Measure B passes
Measure C passes
Measure G passes
98 fails
99 passes
Impossible to make any predictions!! And I am ALWAYS wrong.
People that vote for Elton Gallegly are the same folks that vote for G.W. Bush for President. You can't predict what madmen will do
I know what Republicans are. They are a funny people. They are always choosing someone to lead them in a direction which they do not want to go
Gallegly - 75%
Tenenbaum - 25%
Pallant - 52%
Martinez - 40%
Jorgensen - 8%
Pavley - 54%
Levine - 46%
Hare - 59%
Masry - 41%
Bennett - 51%
Orellana - 49%
Long - 65%
Hanson - 35%
Flynn - 46%
Zaragoza - 39%
O'Leary - 15%
Prop. 99 - 58%
Prop. 98 - 42%
What is the over/under on Gallegly/Tenenbaum? I say he breaks 30%. I think even some Republicans are tired of Elton Gallegly and will vote Tenenbaum as a protest vote. It is a good test of the strength of the Gallegly message, whatever the bleep that is.
Mongo, you like this Elton guy I can tell. I'll take the over @ 25%.
The Pallant/Martinez match will be closer that you might think, but thanks for your sentiments.
Mary Pallant rocks!
I say Pallant rules easily. Hearing the Democratic candidates speaking now on several occasions, Mary Pallant is clearly the strongest candidate with a solid grasp on the issues facing us these days. This will be noticed by voters.
As far as Gallegly, I can't believe even Repubs will continue to support his seat after years of nothing but economic disaster and blindly following George Bush's bidding. Tenenbaum should make more of a presence just because of Gallegly's connection to the Bush-Cheney administration.
Hare will dominate as will Pavley.
Easy. Tenenbaum 61%, Gallegly 39%. 98 No 65%.
99 Yes 50.5%. Pallant 62%. Orellana 75%. Tony Strickland 4% write in for Donald Duck 96%.
Wow, Napoleon D, you must be an Obama fan too. Talk about overly optimistic...
Actually I'm a fan of idiots, that is why you are my idol Mongo.
Measure B in Thousand Oaks will lose big time! 70% No, 30% Yes! Prop 98 will also lose big time!
Mongo,
In the unlikely history that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
Here is my predictions on the races I am watching (not that anybody cares)...
Kathy Long at around 72%
Flynn 48%
Zaragoza 33%
Gallegly at 86%
Bennett 58%
Orellana 42%
Wow, Napoleon Syndrome, optimistic and witty to boot. Who could ask for more?
Hey, Napoleon Complex, your name is indicative of a guy that's short in height, as well other areas of the anatomy.
Exit Polls have Tenenbaum beating Gallegly by 3%, Measure B in Thousand Oaks looks to be going down by a large number as does Prop 98, Prop 99 is too close to call at this time.
Too early for any reliable exit poll results. Check back in around 6:00 PM. I think you'll see quite a difference.
Latest Exit Poll now has Tenenbaum up by 5%.
C'mon, he's going down...
Gallegly - 75%
Tenenbaum - 25%
Pallant - 52%
Martinez - 40%
Jorgensen - 8%
Pavley - 54%
Levine - 46%
Hare - 59%
Masry - 41%
Bennett - 42
Orellana - 58
Long - 55
Hanson - 45
Flynn - 44
Zaragoza - 39
O'Leary - 17
Prop. 99 - 49
Prop. 98 -49
Gallegly - 48
Tenenbaum - 52
Pallant - 55
Martinez - 40%
Jorgensen - 5
Pavley - 54%
Levine - 46%
Hare - 55
Masry - 45
Bennett - 42
Orellana - 58
Long - 55
Hanson - 45
Flynn - 44
Zaragoza - 39
O'Leary - 17
Prop. 99 - 49
Prop. 98 -49
Sorry I copied Mongo and edited. The 2nd one is correct.
You could do worse, Ligor...
Mongo-
I didn't pay attention to the VCRCC ballot. Was that a pick three or choose?
If it was choose who do you see winning Valenzano, Valenzano or Strickland?
I'd say all three of them. Good choices all...
The results so far are showing that VC Republicans are loyal lemmings. Hail the march of the lemmings!
Tony Strickland's mom, an ex-Strickland staff and his wife who knows nothing about politics are not good choices to serve as CC representatives. Shame on you Mike.
It was impossible to predict that Jorgensen would win the nomination.
It was impossible to predict that Jorgensen would win the nomination.