A TREND IN VOTER REGISTRATION
A TREND IN VOTER REGISTRATION
Since the close of registration prior to the March primary, 9,781 new voters have been added to registration rolls in Ventura County. Among those new registrations, there is a stunning trend: There are nearly 5 times as many new Democrats as new Republicans — 5,570 Democrats, 1,184 Republicans and 3,186 nonpartisans.
The new registrations have cut the Republicans' lead in the county from more than 16,000 to less than 12,000 — about the same differential that existed just before the 2000 presidential election, when George W. Bush beat Al Gore in the county by 1 percentage point.
Posted by Timm Herdt at 5:42 PM
GO FIGURE If you think
GO FIGURE
If you think politics ought to be logical, try this multiple choice test below, based on the findings of a Public Policy Institute poll released today.
1. The most commonly identified potential terrorist targets in California are Los Angeles International Airport and the Golden Gate Bridge. Given this, residents of which region of California are most likely to cite terrorism as their No. 1 concern this election year:
A. Los Angeles County
B. San Francisco
C. Southern California counties outside of Los Angeles
D. Central Valley
2. The area of the state with the highest unemployment rate -- in some counties more than double the statewide rate -- is the Central Valley. Given this, residents of which region of the state were least likely to cite the economy and jobs as their No. 1 concern this election year:
A. Los Angeles County
B. San Francisco
C. Southern California counties outside of Los Angeles
D. Central Valley
The answer to both questions is "D."
Statewide, 9 percent of likely voters cite terrorism and security issues as their top concern. In the Central Valley, it's 12 percent.
Statewide, 26 percent of likely voters cite the economy and jobs as their top concern. In the Central Valley, it's 21 percent.
Perhaps in Tulare County, where the unemployment rate is 15.4 percent, there are more people with time on their hands to worry about terrorism than there are in Los Angeles County, with its 5.4 percent unemployment rate.
Posted by Timm Herdt at 1:19 PM
WILL ARNOLD'S BROTHER-IN-LAW BE A
WILL ARNOLD'S BROTHER-IN-LAW BE A 'GIRLIE MAN'?
It took campaign-watchers in the Assembly all of about 1 minute on Monday to make a quick calculation after discovering that Bobby Shriver, Maria's big brother and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's brother-in-law, had filed to run for a seat on the Santa Monica City Council. The development means, Democrats speculated, that Shriver is positioning himself to run for the Assembly in 2006, when incumbent Fran Pavley is termed out.
Shriver, 50, is the eldest child of Sargent Shriver and Eunice Kennedy Shriver. He has never before run for public office, but currently holds the appointed position of chairman of the State Parks and Recreation Commission. He began his career as a newspaper reporter, before going on to graduate from Yale Law School.
The city council bid is certain — his attorney delivered his candidate's papers to City Hall just before the deadline. As for a possible Assembly bid, that is sheer speculation. However, Santa Monica is the largest city in the 41st District and almost certain to produce the next representative in a Democrat-dominated district that runs into the San Fernando Valley and up the coast through Malibu, Port Hueneme and coastal Oxnard. Pavely won a fiercely contested Democratic primary in 2000, in part because three candidates from Santa Monica helped split the vote in that hugely Democratic stronghold.
Posted by Timm Herdt at 12:21 PM
STOP THE PRESSES Assembly candidates
STOP THE PRESSES
Assembly candidates in two key races this fall issed news releases this week with this earth-shaking news: The Republican governor has endorsed the Republican candidate in each contest.
I've only been writing about politics for 25 years, so my news judgment may not yet be completely refined, but it seems to me that it would only be news if a Republican governor endorsed a Democratic candidate or vice versa. In the news business, they call what took place this week "dog bites man" events.
Yet the candidates strived to make the endorsements seem noteworthy. "We are very pleased to have the endorsement of the governor," declared Nellie McGarry, who is seeking to unseat Democratic freshman Barbara Matthews.
The press release said Arnold Schwarzenegger's endorsement "ends months of speculation as to whether the governor would choose sides."
This also just in: President Bush has endorsed Republican challenger Bill Jones in his campaign to unseat Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer.
Watch this space for future partisan surprises.
Posted by Timm Herdt at 10:29 AM
WHERE THE NEW VOTES ARE
WHERE THE NEW VOTES ARE
If you've ever wondered why the political parties and the media make such a big deal out of the Latino vote, even though Latinos nationwide make up only 7.3 percent of all voters, some new numbers released yesterday by the William C. Velasquez Institute, tell the story. In short, it is this: the Latino vote is where the growth is.
Data from the Census Bureau show that the total number of registered voters in the United States declined by 1.4 million between 2000 and 2002 (historically there is always a dropoff between presidential and nonpresidential election years). During that period when the total number of registered voters was declining, however, the number of Latino voters surged by 650,000, to an all-time high of 8.2 million. Based on this trend, institute president Antonio Gonzalez projects that 9.4 million Latinos will be registered to vote for president in November and that 7.4 million will vote.
Gonzalez said the data prove that "the Latino community is now the most positive force in the American electorate."
It is this surge in Latino registration that gives Democrats hope that the Southwest states will become a strength for the party in 2004 and in future presidential election years. In 2000, President Bush carried Nevada by about 12,000 votes and Arizona by about 80,000. Al Gore carried New Mexico by fewer than 400 votes. In each of those states, if John Kerry were to win the Latino vote by the same margin that Gore did four years ago, the increase in Latino voters would be enough to put all three in the Democratic column.
That explains why Kerry made a trip to the Southwest this week -- and why you're also likely to see Latinos prominently featured at the Republican National Convention in a couple weeks.
Posted by Timm Herdt at 12:00 PM
IT'S ABOUT ARNOLD, NOT GEORGE?
IT'S ABOUT ARNOLD, NOT GEORGE?
As state Republicans gather in San Diego this weekend for a pre-election mini-convention, the strategic challenge before them couldn't be more plain: They must figure out a way to make the November election in California about Arnold Schwarzenegger instead of George Bush. Considering that it's Bush who will be on the ballot and that the presidential campaign will be getting 24/7 news coverage for the next three months, that would be quite a trick if state Republicans could pull it off.
Considering that U.S. Senate candidate Bill Jones trails incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer by 15 points and there is at most one competitive race for a seat in the House of Representatives in this state, California Republicans will be intensely focused on trying to make gains in the Legislature. To do that, they will try to tap into the remnants of last year's recall fever and exploit Schwarzenegger's popularity. If they can succeed in focusing voter attention on state issues, there is a chance they could pick up 1 or 2 seats in the state Senate and perhaps as many as 4 in the Assembly.
The problem for Republicans is that in a presidential election year, the race for the presidency sucks all the voter attention away from everything else. The latest Field Poll shows Democrat John Kerry leading Bush by 11 or 12 points (depending on whether Ralph Nader qualifies for the ballot). Equally troubling is evidence that Democrats appear more motivated to vote this year than Republicans. The Field Poll asked respondents whether they believed this year's presidential election is more important than previous elections. Among Democrats, 79 percent believe this year's election is more important. Among Republicans, 63 percent held that opinion. That suggests Democrats will be more strongly motivated come Nov. 2.
The Republicans' challenge will be to persuade a high number of Democrats and independents to split their tickets — in other words, to get a high number of Kerry voters to choose Republican candidates for the Legislature. Their best chance to do that is to make the election seem to be about Schwarzenegger. The difference in voter opinion between the Republican governor and the Republican president is striking. Overall, Schwarzenegger is viewed favorably by 57 percent of likely voters, compared to only 40 percent who have a favorable opinion of Bush. Even more striking is the difference among key independent voters — 56 percent favorable of Schwarzenegger, 33 percent favorable of Bush.
One advantage Republicans will have is that a large number of the Democrats' ground troops will be recruited out of state to try to help Kerry in Western swing states such as Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico. One Democratic legislative staffer acknowledged the situation to me recently, but framed the issue philosophically: "When it comes down to it," he said, "which you rather win: the Presidency of the United States or a couple of Assembly seats?"
Meanwhile, at the weekend GOP convention Ventura County Assemblyman Tony Strickland will be making known the presence of the new group he will head after he leaves the Legislature, the California Club for Growth. The group announced it will be very visible at the convention, displaying bright green and black signs that will deliver its warning message to any Republicans who might ever consider straying from party orthodoxy. The signs will read: "Raise a Tax, Get the Axe."
Posted by Timm Herdt at 11:01 AM
Over the last 22 presidential elections, Ventura County voters have backed the winner 21 times, or 95 percent of the time. It is one of only a handful of counties in the nation that has been such a predictable bellwether.
The Ventura County Star's Sacramento Bureau Chief Timm Herdt on state issues and politics from Sacramento to Ventura County. He can be contacted at 
