The 'win and a do-over' scenario
Just about everyone in and around California's Capitol these days has a scenario for how this year's potentially earth-shattering, special-election political showdown will play out. I've asked dozens of folks over the last week or two to handicap the possibility of a full-scale initiative war coming to pass, and most put the prospects somewhere between 65 percent and 75 percent.
So, if the conventional wisdom is that there is a 25 percent to 35 percent chance of averting a war, how might the truce be reached?
The most intriguing scenario is one a former Capitol staff offered yesterday. It goes like this: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, sensing one or more of his ballot proposals now circulating may be fatally flawed and headed for likely defeat, will look for a way out. Democratic groups, led by public employee labor unions, will develop at least a slight case of sticker shock as the date approaches to pull the trigger on a $100 million campaign spending spree. The two sides will then make a deal on what seem to be the easier issues: redistricting and teacher tenure. A deal that would turn over redistricting to a bipartisan third party, but to wait until 2011 to do so, is doable. So is a deal that would slightly extend the teacher probationary period, giving school administrators a little more time to assess new teachers before giving them permanent job protection.
With that, Schwarzenegger could declare victory -- and it would in fact be a significant victory, because Republican governors have been trying for decades in California to take redistricting out of the hands of the Legislature.
And what about the other issues -- overhauling public employee pensions and putting a cap on state spending? Well, Schwarzenegger's people could go back to the drawing boards, put together new measures that fix the political weaknesses of the current ones (notably, the absence of a provision for death and disability benefits for public safety workers) and go back on the streets to qualify those measures for the June 2006 election.
That would give Schwarzenegger a victory and a do-over. It's the most plausible exit strategy I've heard yet.
Posted by Timm Herdt at 10:25 AM | Comments (2)
Bread, butter, unions and politics
When Citizens for California, the initiative committee formed to carry out the stated agenda of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger last week announced the lineup of measures it would be funding, political strategist Rick Claussen tried his best to downplay the significance of union opposition to the proposed initiatives. In the Los Angeles mayoral election this month, he noted, the union establishment backed incumbent James Hahn, but exit polls should that most voters from union households supported City Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa.
Claussen and others on the Schwarzenegger political team continue to insist that their opposition comes from union bosses, and not necessarily the rank and file. While clearly there are times when there is a political disconnect between union leaders and their membership, it is hard to imagine that will be the case when the initiatives involve such bread-and-butter union issues as pensions and job security.
Treasuer Phil Angelides, the only announced candidate for governor in 2006 and a member of the State Teachers Retirement System board, told me last week he had done the calculations on what the Citizens to Save California-backed pension initiative would mean to a 30-year teacher in California. Under their traditional pension today, he said, such retired California teachers receive an average monthly pension check of $3,400. Under the proposed 401(k) style plan, assuming a 7 percent return on their investments, those teachers could expect to withdraw $1,800 a month from their accounts after they retire, he said.
Do rank-and-file teachers have reason to oppose Schwarzenegger on this? You bet. Chances are, there won't be a whole lot of grumbling now that the California Teachers Association is set to ask for a $60 a month increase in union dues to build up its warchest to take on the Schwarzenegger plan.
And the teachers aren't the only union with a bread-and-butter agenda with the potential to motivate the troops. The California Correctional Peace Officers Association, the prison guards' union, has always had a reputation for playing politics for keeps. There's no ambiguity about where they stand in the name of the Web site the union plans to launch in the near future: www.screwarnold.com.
Posted by Timm Herdt at 11:18 AM | Comments (0)
One thing on their minds?
Here's a quiz. Pick the one item from the following list that doesn't seem to belong:
A. Beastiality.
B. Bisexuality.
C. Cunnilingus.
D. Domestic partnerships.
E. Fallatio.
F. Homosexuality.
G. Lesbianism.
H. Masochism.
I. Masterbation.
J. Necrophelia.
K. Orgies.
L. Pederasty.
M. Pedophilia.
N. Sadism.
O. Sodomy.
I suspect you answered D., domestic partnerships, the one thing on the list that has nothing to do with sex. Domestic partnerships, under California law, are contracts between same-sex couples or between older, unmarried opposite-sex couples that bind the partners to a legally committed relationship. They are about love, commitment and legal rights.
So what are they doing on a list with necrophelia, beastiality and orgies? Well, the list is from a bill, AB 349 by Assemblyman Dennis Mountjoy, R-Monrovia, scheduled to be heard next week by the Assembly Education Committee. Under its provisions, schools would have to provide advance notice to parents of high schools students before they could discuss any of these subjects with students, either in individual counseling or as a group in class.
It's an instructive list, because it suggest one reason why opponents of domestic partnerships are so steadfast in their opposition: They just can't get beyond sex.
Posted by Timm Herdt at 10:26 AM | Comments (1)
Silly Season IV
If there was any doubt that the prospect of a special election in the fall has ushered in a four consecutive silly season (i.e., everyone is in full campaign mode) in Sacramento, they were shattered yesterday in Assembly Speaker Fabian Nuņez' hysterical response to a news report that one the campaign committee sponsoring Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's initiatives had subcontracted with a signature-verification firm that outsources the work to India.
To be sure, it was an embarrassing disclosure and there is a sort of rueful irony in a group called Citizens to Save California shipping off work to a third world country -- and, at that, work that involves shipping abroad the names and addresses of millions of California voters.
But Nuņez seized on the tidbit with Kenneth Starr-like zeal. He staged a news conference, launched an investigation, called the action "outrageous."
After 2002, 2003 and 2004, there was a small window of hope that 2005 could be a year in which California's elected officials could find a moment or two to put aside partisan combat. But this is going to be an election year after all, so there stunts like this will again be the order of the day, every day.
Posted by Timm Herdt at 12:19 PM | Comments (0)
Over the last 22 presidential elections, Ventura County voters have backed the winner 21 times, or 95 percent of the time. It is one of only a handful of counties in the nation that has been such a predictable bellwether.
The Ventura County Star's Sacramento Bureau Chief Timm Herdt on state issues and politics from Sacramento to Ventura County. He can be contacted at 
