Take that, Iowa!
Just when you thought the first presidential caucuses were going to take place Jan. 3 in Iowa, Monterey County Democrats have decided to move the calendar forward nearly a month.
Democrats in Monterey will host on that day what they are billing as "the first presidential primary in the nation" -- a faux caucus that will feature a straw poll that they hope will attract some media attention. They didn't quite get the speaker of the House to headline their event, but they do promise that her daughter, Christine Pelosi, will be a special guest.
In a press release announcing the event ("News organizations will have an opportunity to cover the excitement, drama and spectacle of a presidential primary in Salinas," it begins), the organizers say they expect it to be "the largest ever gathering of Democrats in Central California."
Wonder whether they're counting that Oprah fund-raiser for Barack Obama that took in Montecito in September...
Posted by Timm Herdt at 5:01 PM | Comments (0)
It'll be the economy, stupid
There are growing signs that the dominant issue in the presidential and congressional elections next fall won't be Iraq, but rather the economy. When even White House economists downgrade their forecasts, as they did yesterday, saying the effects of the housing crisis will be more severe than originally thought, it's a certain sign that the nation's economy is going to get worse before it gets better.
All the presidential candidates who have spent the last 10 months honing their positions on Iraq should be prepared to tear up their stump speeches and replace them with ones that focus mainly on their economic policies. Once the economy becomes the primary issue of interest among voters, all other issues tend to fall distantly behind.
A polling memo out today from the Democracy Corps puts the situation like this:
"With gas prices once again rising over $3 per gallon and the subprime mortgage mess creating ripple effects ... that are likely only going to get worse, we are seeing signs of a potential breaking point. While the war in Iraq remains the dominant concern for Americans, economic concerns -- especially healthcare, jobs and energy costs -- have now emerged as a close second...
"The fact that not even the start of the holiday season could check the steady decline in consumer confidence suggests that economic concerns will become increasingly central to the public debate in 2008."
Posted by Timm Herdt at 11:44 AM | Comments (0)
No comment? Not anymore
I have discovered that, for nearly a month now, I have been writing what may be the only non-interactive blog in America. You could read it, but you couldn't post a comment. I'm assured that situation has been fixed.
Bruce McLean, the Star's new-media guru, explained that this blog, created years ago and reactivated every campaign season, had a now-ancient template that didn't accommodate our updated comment system. He tells me that work is in progress that will make the comment option not only functional, but more visually appealing.
So to those of you who may have tried to comment and been frustrated in the attempt, please try again. There's nothing a reporter likes less than "no comment."
Posted by Timm Herdt at 9:46 AM | Comments (5)
Supervisor Peter Foy on health reform
Freshman Ventura County Supervisor Peter Foy weighs in on the state's healthcare reform efforts in an essay posted today on the conservative blog on state issues, the Flash Report, published by state party vice chairman Jon Fleischman.
In a brief introduction, Fleischman notes that Foy's election last year boosted the "ideological firepower" of the Ventura County board, and Foy's essay confirms the observation. He argues only for some market-based tweaks in the existing healthcare system and condemns efforts by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to expand insurance coverage in the state by extending the reach of government subsidized insurance and requiring all employers to either directly provide health benefits to workers or to pay into a state fund that would buy insurance for them.
Posted by Timm Herdt at 10:49 AM | Comments (1)
The missing choice
I got my first piece of official election mail the day after Thanksgiving -- a form from the county registrar asking whether, as a decline-to-state voter, I'd like to request a partisan ballot for the Feb. 5 presidential primary election.
Here were my choices: American Independent Party, or Democratic Party.
Which means that if I want to vote for Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney or John McCain ... well, maybe I could move to New Hampshire.
The California Republican Party has now officially disinvited 3 million nonaligned California voters from its primary -- the very voters who, come November, will be deciding the outcome of partisan elections across the state.
The idea is to maintain partisan purity in the primary. In that regard, mission accomplished. Come November, however, the party will try to welcome these decline-to-state voters into its tent. How receptive will they be to such an invitation after having been left out in the cold during the primary?
Posted by Timm Herdt at 8:35 PM | Comments (1)
Handicapping 2010, Round II
Political parlor games never seem to go out of fashion, so Democratic operative and blogster Steve Maviglio this week released his updated handicapping of the potential Democratic candidates for governor in 2010. His full analysis of the 10-candidate field can be found at the California Majority Report blog.
It's interesting speculation, and Maviglio joins the chorus of observers — Republican and Democrat — who I've talked to in recent months who place Attorney General Jerry Brown at the top of the heap. Frankly, I find this universal assumption of Brown's favoritism somewhat puzzling, given his age (he'll be 70 next year, 72 in 2010 and would be 77 at the end of the next gubernatorial term) and the fact that he's previously served two terms. Nevertheless, the conventional wisdom in Sacramento at this point makes him the favorite.
Ventura County Democrats will note that Maviglio rates the local native son, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell No. 7 in the field. As with most other pundits, he has good things to say about O'Connell but doubts his ability to play on the biggest stage, given his low statewide name-recognition and questionable ability to raise the mega-millions of dollars that would be needed.
To me, the most intriguing individual on the list is Treasurer Bill Lockyer, who checks in at No. 6 on the list. Lockyer is without question the Democrats' 2010 wild card — either as a candidate or as a potential kingmaker. At the end of last year, Lockyer had a $10.3 million surplus in his campaign account. That's a huge amount, and will continue to grow substantially even if Lockyer doesn't lift a finger. His report for the last quarter of 2006 reports a $96,443 "miscellaneous increase to cash" -- in other words interest earned.That means Lockyer built his campaign account by about about $400,000 this year just on interest alone. Add another half million in interest in 2009, and he'll have a minimum of more than $11 million.
Many political observers question whether Lockyer actually wants to run governor, given that he decided against it in 2006 and seems to generally disdain thought of conducting an exhausting campaign for the state's highest office. If he chooses not to run, Lockyer could potentially play the role of kingmaker by using that money to fund an independent campaign for someone else.
It would be truly interesting to see Lockyer -- who is well known in Democratic circles for his humorous "top ten" lists -- put together his own list of how he ranks the leading Democratic contenders in 2010. That list would be more than just a parlor game.
Posted by Timm Herdt at 11:10 AM | Comments (0)
Carbon-free voting
When your name is synonymous with government regulations to combat global warming, there's plenty to keep you busy these days.
Former Ventura County Assemblywoman Fran Pavley planned to be on hand tonight in Los Angeles for the first-ever presidential debate focused on climate change and energy policy -- an event sponsored by the California League of Conservation Voters, and featuring Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich.
Pavley told me Friday, however, that she does not intend to be in federal district court in Fresno on Monday when attorneys for the Natural Resources Defense Council attempt to get a judge to toss out the lawsuit filed by automakers against the law Pavley authored in 2001 that will require reduced greenhouse-gas emissions for cars sold in California.
Pavley was the subject of some raised-eyebrow reporting last week after EdVoice used her name and photograph on a flier promoting "carbon free voting" that was sent to about 30,000 Southern California households, including many in the district in which she is running for a state Senate seat.
She told me she found the speculation somewhat silly that the promotion was designed to advance her campaign -- although EdVoice is a strong supporter, having paid for an early poll in the district.
"Who in June is going to remember that I was on a brochure for a February election?" she asked.
She said she agreed to let EdVoice use her name and photo because the idea of promoting mail-in voting as "carbon-free voting" was "a cute way to draw people into voting in general."
As for Pavley, she says she personally prefers to vote at the polls. Of course, she drives a Prius to get there.
Posted by Timm Herdt at 5:11 PM | Comments (0)
Advantage for Romney?
How will California's new Republican primary system, which awards delegates based on the voting in each congressional district, affect the various candidates seeking the GOP presidential nomination?
Most of the candidates say they intend to focus their energies statewide, rather than try to cherry-pick selected congressional districts -- with the exception of backers of libertarian Ron Paul, who are making a concerted effort to try to capture the San Francisco district held by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Their rationale is that since there are only 33,000 Republican voters in that district, a low-budget, grassroots campaign could be effective there.
My analysis, based on the district-by-district outcome in the 2002 Republican gubernatorial primary, is that the new system will help help the candidate most favored by conservatives. At this point, that seems to be former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who last week received the endorsement of the ultra-conservative California Republican Assembly.
In 2002, conservative Bill Simon defeated moderate Richard Riordan 49 percent to 31 percent in the statewide popular vote in the GOP primary. But Simon won 36 of the state's 53 congressional districts, or 68 percent. He did this by sweeping congressional districts in the most conservative parts of the state -- the rural north and the Riverside-Orange-San Bernardino-Ventura-San Diego ring around Los Angeles. Riordan carried 14 districts, all but one dominated by Los Angeles County voters (the other was in San Francisco).
Statewide polls show former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani with a 12 percentage-point statewide lead over Romney, who is in a virtual second-place tie with John McCain and Fred Thompson. But the 2002 gubernatorial results suggest that under the new system a conservative candidate could lose the statewide popular voter and still win a higher percentage of delegates than a moderate statewide winner.
At this point, consider that an advantage to Romney.
Posted by Timm Herdt at 11:42 AM | Comments (0)
McCain: It'll be over before California votes
Feb. 5, the super-primary day when California and 21 other states hold their presidential primaries, will be a big day in politics. But by then the question of who will be the Republican and Democratic nominees will already have been settled.
That’s the opinion of someone who’s been around the block before: Arizona Sen. John McCain, who held a brief news conference in Sacramento yesterday following a fund-raiser at the Sheraton Grand hotel.
“I think it’s very likely that the tradition that has held since 1980 will probably be the case again,” McCain told reporters. The mathematics of that tradition is straightforward: The candidate who wins two out of the first three contests — Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — wraps up the nomination.
“That’s how I got beat by Gov. Bush in 2000,” McCain said.
In that year, of course, President Bush won Iowa, McCain carried New Hampshire, and then Bush closed the deal by winning the decisive two-out-of-three by winning in South Carolina.
In a not-too-enthusiastic effort to appease the Golden State locals, McCain then opined: “If that’s not the case, which I doubt, then California will obviously be the great prize.”
McCain was headed to San Francisco for another fund-raiser, making clear that regardless of the significance of its primary, this state will play a important role in the presidential race.
“There’s still a lot of money in California that I need to get,” he joked.
Posted by Timm Herdt at 9:55 AM | Comments (0)
Three different sides of local Republican support
The most recent Field Poll on the Republican presidential primary in California indicates that state Republicans are largely divided or just plain undecided about who their nominee ought to be.
So it shouldn’t be surprising that three of Ventura County’s most politically active conservatives each find themselves in different camps.
Plugging former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (25 percent in the October Field Poll) is Simi Valley activist Steve Frank, who was hired early on by the Giuliani campaign to try to help build a base among the party’s most conservative base. For Frank, it was a natural alliance that stems from his close relationship with businessman Bill Simon, the party’s 2002 candidate for governor. Simon used to work for Giuliani in the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Manhattan, and Frank worked for Simon in his gubernatorial campaign.
Backing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (13 percent in the October poll) is former Assemblyman Tony Strickland of Moorpark, who serves a co-chair of Romney’s California campaign. Strickland has helped organize multiple local fund-raisers for Romney and is chiefly responsible for the fact that Romney has received more financial support from Ventura County than any 2008 presidential candidate of either party.
Last week, Sen. Tom McClintock stepped into his new role as chairman of the state campaign for former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson (12 percent in the October poll). McClintock joined Thompson at a news conference at the Sacramento Convention Center to make the announcement. McClintock’s value isn’t in fund-raising, but rather to give Thompson instant street cred among California conservatives, who view McClintock as an iconic, principled hero.
The early reaction from McClintock’s fans, however, was mixed. After McClintock posted an entry on his Citizens for the California Republic Web site, some long-time followers expressed instant disappointment.
A reader who identified himself as Jim in Anaheim weighed in with the following response to McClintock’s blog:
“You’ve got to be kidding me! Ron Paul will be the second vote for a Republican I’ll make since 1988. You were the first. Now I am absolutely ashamed that I gave you my vote. Ron Paul is the only candidate who truly supports a return to a constitutional republic, and if you can’t see that, you are no friend of liberty. You will never get my support again.”
Paul, by the way, registered 4 percent support in the October poll.
As I said, indications are that California Republicans are largely — and sometimes passionately — divided over who their nominee should be.
Posted for Timm Herdt by staff
Posted by Matt Saint at 12:00 AM | Comments (0)
Start the countdown
The presidential election will take place one year from today, Nov. 4, 2008. Today is T minus 366 days and counting because, remember, presidential elections are always held in leap years.
If it seems a little early to start the countdown, you haven’t been paying attention. We’re now two months from the Iowa caucus (Jan. 3) and three months from the California presidential primary (Feb. 5). Such a political calendar makes Wal-Mart’s decision to decorate its stores for Christmas shopping on the weekend after Halloween seem like a model of restraint.
I’ve chosen this day to relaunch my the campaign-season blog that I have written for the past several election years. The blog has a provocative new name – “95 percent accurate” — which is not intended to reflect the precision of my reportorial skills. Rather, it’s a tribute to Ventura County’s remarkable record as a predictor of national presidential election results. Over the last 20 presidential elections, dating back to 1924, voters in Ventura County have backed the winner 19 times. They have been, in other words, 95 percent accurate.
Over the next 12 months I will report in this space developments not just in the presidential campaign in California, but also in the myriad other campaigns that will unfold in 2008. There will be many, if for no other reason that California will go to the polls not once, not twice, but three times — in February, June and November.
Ventura County could be the scene of a couple very interesting, very expensive and potentially very competitive campaigns next year. Or not. It will all depend on the outcome of Proposition 93 on the Feb. 5 ballot.
If approved by voters, that measure would make it possible for current legislators to serve additional terms. If it fails, then state Sens. Tom McClintock and Sheila Kuehl will be termed out, resulting in a couple of potentially fierce campaigns to pick their successors.
In McClintock’s 19th District, former Assemblyman Tony Strickland has apparently succeeded in clearing the field for the Republican primary. But two Democrats — former Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson and political consultant Jim Dantona are engaged in a game of chicken over the Democratic nomination. If neither of them swerves, they will collide in a primary battle that will be settled in June.
There will be an opening no matter what in Kuehl’s 23rd District, because she tells me she won’t run for a third term even if Proposition 93 passes. Former Assemblywoman Fran Pavley is definitely running to be the Democrat to take her place. She’ll face competition from Assemblyman Lloyd Levine if Proposition 93 fails. But if it passes, Levine will choose instead to run for re-election to the Assembly.
If what you’re looking for in a blog on politics is partisan spin, direct your cursor elsewhere. But if you’re a political junkie in Ventura County or elsewhere in the state, please come back again and again in 2008. You’ll find tidbits, observations and anecdotes that I hope will at the very least provide a diversion from the obsessive checking and rechecking of the latest polls at pollingreport.com.
Posted for Timm Herdt by staff
Posted by Matt Saint at 12:00 AM | Comments (0)
Over the last 22 presidential elections, Ventura County voters have backed the winner 21 times, or 95 percent of the time. It is one of only a handful of counties in the nation that has been such a predictable bellwether.
The Ventura County Star's Sacramento Bureau Chief Timm Herdt on state issues and politics from Sacramento to Ventura County. He can be contacted at 
